The latest Newspoll has Labor’s lead down from 53-47 to 51-49, which is the Coalition’s best result since the start of what is now Malcolm Turnbull’s run of 31 successive Newspoll defeats. This doesn’t reflect much activity on the primary vote, on which the Coalition and Labor are both steady at 38% and 37%, with the Greens down one to 9% and One Nation steady on 7%.
There is also encouragement for Malcolm Turnbull on leadership ratings, with his approval up four to 36% and disapproval down four to 53%, although Bill Shorten also improves by two on approval to 34% and three on disapproval to 53%. Turnbull maintains only a very modest lead as preferred prime minister, of 38-35, out from 38-36 last time. The poll also finds strong support for a reduction in immigration levels, with 56% rating the present level too high, 28% about right, and only 10% too low.
A point that should be noted about the Coalition’s apparent improvement in Newspoll is that at least part of it would seem to be down to an adjustment in their preference allocations, from a model based purely on results from the 2016 election to one which gives the Coalition a stronger flow of One Nation preferences, presumably based on the experience of the Queensland and Western Australian state elections. The chart below compares the published two-party results from Newspoll with how the raw primary numbers convert using a) a 50-50 split in One Nation preferences, as they were in 2016; and b) a 60-40 split in the Coalition’s favour, which seems more likely based on state election experience.
It will be noted that Newspoll (the grey line) closely tracked the 50-50 model (the blue line) until December last year, when it snapped to the 60-40 model (the orange line). Also noteworthy is the overshoot of the grey line for the very latest result, which reflects the fact that the Coalition may have been a little lucky with rounding this week. As Kevin Bonham notes, a calculation from the published, rounded primary vote totals using the 50-50 preferences model yields a 52.4-47.6 lead for Labor – a result that would have generated considerably less buzz than this, the “best Coalition result in 18 months”.
Alp primary is steady so i dont buy dividend policy theory.
More likely ON preference distrubution change and movement fron ON to LNP. Greens also seem rather weak as of late due to relevance depravation.
Tetsujin
Quite right, and so unnecessary to try and come up with “savings” which will not be realised. So easy for the Libs to stress this.
An own goal.
And there goes the President of the United States. How in all that is holy has America’s head of state come to emulate some tin pot despot nowheresville nation?
Our great LNP will be winning the next election and Turnbull will be PM till 2022 and beyond and will be the best PM since Howard
Small movement plus rounding. The Libs need a PV with a 4 in front before getting excited.
Lovey
‘ “savings” which will not be realised. ‘
In which case, no one is losing anything, so there’s nothing to worry about.
(Even the Coalition realises that someone will lose something and therefore there will be savings…)
Lol so a 1 point shift away from Greens and its because of dividend imputation “own goal” ?
What world are you guys living in ?
zoomster,
equal or not is simply ‘swamprat’ rebadged, so why you expect any other sort of comment from them, I don’t know. It’s people like him and Rex Douglas that get great glee from seeing the prospect of a federal Labor government disappear in a puff of smoke. They are about as Left as my Right tit. Or Mark Latham and all the other idiots like this:
Interesting to see Turnbull creeping back into contention. I agree that the primary is too low to get excited, but it’s certainly a better position to be in than the 45 55 we saw last November, and a very slow trend is starting to develop.
Davidwh @ #54 Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 10:25 pm
I’m with him!
Thank god we got someone that knows what they are talking about.
https://twitter.com/kevinbonham/status/988028772170350593?s=19
It’s always the darkest before the dawn!
C@tmomma
“equal or not is simply ‘swamprat’ rebadged,”
———–
And C@tmomma is just , as usual, her simple Bully.
Has anyone else noticed the Coalition strategy of locking away their weakest performers and only bringing out the Ministers who seem to not upset people too much?
The SMSF investors will be nett sellers of those shares, Zoomster. The nett buyers will be those who can count on the full imputation benefit. Therefore the projected saving will not happen.
equal or not? @ #61 Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 10:32 pm
😆 Little mister nastypants can’t stand a bit of blowback. Do you want a tissue swampy? 🙂
Interesting to see Turnbull creeping back into contention.
ABC Breakfast and Fran will be wetting themselves in the morning.
If there was a major media outlet that was friendly to Labor, they would be relentlessly tarring the “Liberals” with guilt by association with the banks. Since there is no such major major outlet, Labor has to do the job itself, and make the mud stick.
And the banks aren’t uniquely wicket. I’m sure there’s far worse in construction, real estate, mining, power generation and that’s just a start. And their political wing, a.k.a the “Liberals”, are up to their neck in it. Just look his desperately they fought against the banking Royal Commission.
Then we’ve got National mates almost certainly stealing water in the Murray Darling Basin.
Big Business can’t be trusted. Their motto is whatever it takes, whatever you can get away with. If you get caught, you can still hire a barrage of lawyers to muddy the waters.
We need more Royal Commissions.
Lovey
I repeat: so why worry? How can something which won’t affect anyone be any sort of problem?
I’m quite happy to let the Liberals go out and tell people that Labor’s imputation measures won’t cost them a cent.
Of course, if it does raise a few cents, then there are savings, which is money Labor can spend to attract people who might actually vote for them.
By the time of the election, Labor looks like having quite a warchest. Let’s see how they’re proposing to spend the savings before we start writing them off.
Why are you ignoring me as you know I’m right about our great LNP are going to wipe the floor with ALP and take the seats back it lost in 2016 to ALP
Can people please start paying attention to Wayne? He’s getting all sooky.
Hi Wayne
Lovey @ #65 Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 10:32 pm
That makes absolutely no sense at all in a real world setting. SMSF and other shareholders who currently pay no tax are not going to divest themselves of dividend-paying shares just because they aren’t getting an imputation credit unless there is something better elsewhere. At the moment, cash is paying considerably less than 3%. So a healthy holding in shares that continue to pay a yield of 5% (even without the benefit of franking credits) will remain in the current environment.
bill bill bill bill bill bill
In The Sunday Age there is a headline “No logic in Labor push on Superannuation deductions” by Noel Whitaker which is on ongoing attack on Labor
The article includes “Labor should ask themselves why people would want to put large contributions into super when the system changes every year The more politicians tinker with it, the less attractive it becomes to lock money away in super”
Whittaker’s email address is noel@noelwhittaker.com.au
Universal Superannuation was introduced by a Labor government – and that is Labor’s commitment
In regard “yearly changes” since 1996 until 2018 the Coalition has been in government from 1996 until 2007 and for the period of the Abbott/Turnbull government, so the very great majority of the years and during which time we have seen the changes we have including the growth in SMSF’s courtesy of Franking Credits being remitted by the ATO and the growth of the cost to the Budget and a raft of other changes including pension or part pension eligibility and the reduction and/or loss of pension entitlement and caps and collars with the now maximum holding by an individual being $1.6 Million
The generosity introduced to Superannuation was by Costello and those changes underwrote the damage to the integrity of the system
They favoured who they favoured
The Superannuation system of universal access was to provide income support over and above any pension eligibility – and for some an income stream in retirement which precluded them from access to a pension and the benefits attaching to pensioner status
So what does Superannuation represent today?
We see what is coming out at the so called Banking Royal Commission in regard Financial Advisers and the outcomes
The constant, weekly attacks of the likes of Whittaker, a Financial Adviser” earning his income telling people how to “make money easily” and with vested interest including politically need to be challenged
Making money is NOT easy – it takes a life time and it takes the benefit of compounding – and there is risk as the Stock Exchange crash of 1987 and the GFC of 2008 showed us – and the advice afforded by some, at cost, is being shown
The system needs to be made sustainable – not a system to make money easily courtesy of government genorisity at the unsustainable expense of tax payers (who are paying tax for it to be remitted to people who have so arranged their financial affairs to receive such remittance over and above their untaxed dividend income – so of means over and above an Aged Pensioner relying exclusively on the Aged Pension)
The likes of Whittiker need to be calked out as unsustainable self interest
Was it Hawke or Keating’s intention that people would self manage their Superannuation accruals?
Did Hawke and Keating introduce legislation in regards Franking Credits being remitted in cash over and above the receipt of a tax free dividend?
Whitaker is a nonsense ensuring that the Superannuation system is unsustainable because it is easy to make money – by ripping off others
The problems with the likes of Whittaker are before the RC – they “work” the system for remuneration
C@tmomma
” Little mister nastypants can’t stand a bit of blowback. Do you want a tissue swampy? ”
——
How extraordinary!.
I have no idea what makes you say things like this.
There is a part of the hard conservatives who would rather see Shorten as PM than Turnbull winning again. The boots will be out again to make certain it happens.
zoomster @ #71 Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 8:40 pm
Yeah. Nah.
Dan Gulberry @ #78 Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 10:48 pm
Just for zoomster.
Naff off Wayne.
I have no idea what makes you say things like this.
How about this, swamprat?
Hilarious, huh?
Like I said, it’s people like you who like nothing more than seeing Labor fail to take government off the Coalition. You can continue to make your asinine comments about them that way.
“Our great LNP will be winning the next election and Turnbull will be PM till 2022 and beyond and will be the best PM since Howard”
Only 2022? No, by 2022 Malcolm will have been acclaimed Prime Minister for Life and his glorious reign continue into mid-century, by which time the outworkings of climate change will have collapsed the economy.
@Davidwh
I agree with you about the mentality of “hard” right, although ideally they want Malcolm Turnbull to stand now as Prime Minister now and replaced by somebody they like. Personally I don’t believe they see much of a difference between Turnbull and Shorten. Although they absolutely detest the Greens as consider them as minions of the devil.
Jay agree they want Turnbull gone now but if 2GB is representative of their views then Shorten is next best option.
Observer
I look at Whittaker and his partner Cochrane in the Fairfax money pages.
Almost every week there is a letter from somebody with vast superannuation funds or other assets chasing free advice!
I like Cochrane though. He has been known to tell readers with substantial assets who want to know how they can arrange their affairs to, say, get the age pension or some other benefit that they have enough and should just enjoy the lifestyle it could provide and not be asking for handouts.
@Davidwh
I don’t listen to 2GB since I live in Hobart, do you know what 2GB listeners think about Labor’s economic policies? I get a feeling that the “hard” right hate Turnbull because of his socially progressive and also probably he is a economic elite (being a former merchant banker).
Disappointing, within the MoE, but it does look like a softening trend.
Another way to look at it, this poll is #31, another 9 to #40!
Zoomster
Labor are saying that ceasing giving tax credits to certain investors will be a budget saving, but this ignores that these are just the people who will be au fait with such things and will see the reward part of the risk/reward consideration of all investments degraded. For less risk they can get almost comparable returns elsewhere.
In effect there will be a transfer of shares from those who receive the full imputation benefit, to buyers who will also -through being able to offset losses – get the full benefit. Therefore it will not benefit the budget.
There seems to be a fair bit of massaging going on to get this Newspoll result. I’ll wait for Essential and another Reachtel before forming an opinion.
C@tmomma
“Hilarious, huh?
Like I said, it’s people like you who like nothing more than seeing Labor fail to take government off the Coalition. You can continue to make your asinine comments about them that way.”
——-
My “hilarious” was about the irony if Labor lost the elections due to the decline in Green preferrences, given the anti-green obsessives on here who blame all Labor’s political misfortunes on the Greens.
This obvioously went over your head.
I think the LNP is bad, corrupt and evil. i will never support them.
I vote Labor because it is only bad and corrupt.
(I actually don’t much like the Greens but some of their policies are certainly more better and leftist of Labor).
Though after the last two appalling Labor regimes, who knows!!!.
I hope that reassures you. 🙂
“more better” is an appalling mistype…. my applogies.
Lovey
“For less risk they can get almost comparable returns elsewhere.”
_________________________________
Where?
“Everyone now has the opportunity to make additional Superannuation contributions up to the concessional limit of $25,000- a year including employer contributions and claim a tax deduction not just those who can salary sacrifice”.
Whittaker
The first point is having $25,000-
So, if you have $25,000- you reduce your tax liability
At whose expense and at whose cost?
The Budget is in the position it is in and the “debate” according to the likes of Whittaker is about reducing and maximising what you can from Treasury – so from taxpayers unable to game the system
And then he refers to equality!!!
From his ivory tower and the bar at his exclusive Club no doubt
Then he says that he will discuss all these issues in future columns!!!!
As a fully self funded retiree with money (also) on Term Deposit so not in ASX Listed Companies paying fully Franked dividends to receive a government handout, the likes of Whittaker and such advice as they provide sickens me – including because we have children and Grand children making their way in life as PAYG taxpayers
Those gaming the system need to be calked out for what they are
What did John Kennedy say?
We have lost our moral compass
Steve777
So you agree with me that Turnbull will be PM after the next election and LNP will win it
KB on twitter says these numbers come out as 52.4 TPP to labor based on 2016 preffs & his calculations, which I’ll take over newscorpse anyday.
Someone else can post a link.
So
Keep calm & trust Bludgertrack.
& Kevin Bonham…
Overseas shares, bonds, debentures etc
MOE. Stop running around like headless chooks.
equal or not: “My “hilarious” was about the irony if Labor lost the elections due to the decline in Green preferrences, given the anti-green obsessives on here who blame all Labor’s political misfortunes on the Greens.”
It doesnt make sense. Greens voters suddenly switching to coalition or ON? No, if greens lose votes it will either be picked up by labor or some left micro party. Or in other words wont do diddly squat as far as labor preferences go. The “drop” in Greens vote was probably margin of error territory that is noted as a whole percentage point because of rounding. As has been noted by others, really nothing has moved in terms of the primaries. Which is not surprising given parliament is not sitting.
Lovey @ #103 Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 11:46 pm
Hell of a lot more sophisticated than Aussie equities. Of course, they could also sell those shares to overseas investors who don’t get franking credits anyway. And just reeling off a list of alternative investments does not make them better than Australian equities paying 4 or 5 per cent plus capital gains if wisely invested.
I call bullshit.
They do not choose who buys them, but they are most attractive to A based investors who will get the full imputation benefit. Past performance is not guaranteed for the future. These companies, largely banks who are presently in the gun, always try to pay dividends franked or unfranked, rather than reinvest profits, which is a lid on share values.
There are plenty of alternatives. No bullshit.
why do we hang around waiting for years for this result
the buck stops with one man who is no intellectual or communicator
turnbull at least is one of these things