The Guardian, which joins the fun by spruiking the result as the “eightieth straight loss” for the Turnbull government, reports that Labor holds a lead of 53-47 in the latest Essential Research poll, out from 52-48 a fortnight ago. The poll also features Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which find Malcolm Turnbull’s lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister unchanged at 41-26 (a growing contrast with the narrow results from Newspoll); a 39% approval rating for Turnbull, down two, and a disapproval rating of 42%, down one; and a 35% approval rating for Bill Shorten, down two, and a disapproval rating of 43%, down one.
A question on preferred Liberal leader finds Turnbull moving clear of Julie Bishop since the last such result in December – he’s up three to 24%, with Bishop down two to 17%. Both are well clear of the more conservative alternatives of Tony Abbott, on 11% (up one) and 3% (down one). Scott Morrison scores only 2%, unchanged on last time. When asked who they would prefer in the absence of Turnbull, 26% opted for Bishop and 16% for Abbott, with Dutton and Morrison both on 5%. Also featured is an occasional question on leaders’ attributes, but I would want to see the raw numbers before drawing any conclusions from them. Those should be with us, along with primary votes, when Essential Research publishes its full report later today.
UPDATE: Full report here. The primary votes are Coalition 38%, Labor 37% (up one), Greens 10% (up one), One Nation 7% (down one).
Also today, courtesy of The Australian, are results from the weekend’s Newspoll which find support for a republic at 50%, down one since last August, with opposition up three to 41%. With the qualification of Prince Charles ascending the throne, support rises to 55%, unchanged since August, while opposition is at 35%, up one.
daretotread. @ #1978 Saturday, April 14th, 2018 – 10:27 am
Yes indeed, so unpopular that she won the popular vote despite all the muck thrown at her.
You wonder why your comments are not taken seriously.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/apr/13/five-storey-blue-penis-causes-uproar-among-stockholm-residents
The Swedes are ready for Trump! 🙂
A R
So Syria having effectively won the war is a “conspiracy theory” . You better have a word with the chaps at CENTCOM then. They said that Assad has essentially won. Or are they part of this ‘vast conspiracy’ ? Do you think the former UK commander of UK forces in Iraq is also a “conspiracy nut” for asking why the fark would Assad bother with such an attack ?
This sounds a reasonable position.
Bushfire Bill @ #2039 Saturday, April 14th, 2018 – 12:05 pm
BB
Fully agree and I am hoping so, but still taking sensible precautions
Syria is a test-ground for Russian munitions, systems, tactics and strategy. Assad may be on the point of dispelling his internal enemies, but he is now a hostage of the Russo-Iranian forces who have kept him in office. He will do as he is bid.
No, but the part suggesting the US would fabricate a chemical weapons attack certainly is.
bemused @ #2101 Saturday, April 14th, 2018 – 2:38 pm
Jees you can be an idiot Bemused.
Where does deeply unpopular translate to majority hating her. The reality is that Hillary was unpopular in many, many areas, inluding the Democrats. Yes she won the costal elites (the people who in Australia would vote Liberal or Green) but she lost the working class voters, the people who in Australia vote Labour or One Nation. She never had the far right.
After WMD, the Gulf of Tonkin, etc. the assumption is that the Americans/media are lying about the chemical attacks. The British general seems to have given the game away. The Israelis and the Saudis have a lot to gain by keeping the Syrian conflict going. For Trump and May it is simply a way of distracting the public.
daretotread. @ #2106 Saturday, April 14th, 2018 – 2:43 pm
You mean like this … ?
I’d hate to be around you when you panic.
Pseudo Cud Chewer @ #2099 Saturday, April 14th, 2018 – 2:33 pm
Pseudo
From the day of Tillersons’ departure yes.
Mind you this woud have happened a year ago under Clinton, and while it would have been handled with more diplomacy and less looking like the keystone cops, it still would have happened. A bomb is a bomb wheterht ordered by a middle class white woman or by a sleazy fat white male.
My view is that Putin’s Russia is behaving in the same way as Nazi Germany did prior to the outbreak of war in 1939. There is provocation of its adversaries; calculated annexation of neighbouring territories; a program of re-armament; repression of dissent and consolidation of power internally; attempts to divide and manipulate political opinion in its competitors.
No Vic I’m not in Melbourne, but I remember it well from my childhood, and I’ve been migrating north, in steps, ever since. In autumn, you can have bits of summer alternating with bits of winter. Four seasons in one day, as the song goes. Global warming is making the summery bits hotter and the wintery bits more violent – cos it’s not just warming, it’s a general increase of all forms of energy (heat and the kinetic energy of wind) in the atmosphere. But Melbrrrrrne in autumn has always been pretty dramatic.
#climatologyonPB!
daretotread. @ #2112 Saturday, April 14th, 2018 – 2:49 pm
That would be a “No” then. 🙁
Chris Sampson@TAPSTRIMEDIA
1h1 hour ago
But wait, 48 hours ago, this #Russian #disinformation profile was threatening to annihilate the U.S. and that Russia had a #RingOfSteel to protect Syria.
Briefly
Were you opposed to the invasion of Iraq? If so what is the substantive and legal difference in this action?
Secondly, whether or not Russia or Iran propped up Assad, what do you think would be the normal course of events otherwise? A secular democracy?
My further view is that Russia is a menace to the democracies, including, in particular, to social democracy. We should use our collective powers – economic, diplomatic and military powers – to confront Russia and require it to renounce its territorial ambitions.
Lovey says:
Saturday, April 14, 2018 at 2:56 pm
Briefly
Were you opposed to the invasion of Iraq?
Absolutely.
I would have been opposed to the Treaty of Versailles as well. That was idiotic. But that opposition would not have obliged any acquiescence to the Third Reich.
poroti @ #2045 Saturday, April 14th, 2018 – 12:34 pm
Poroti
I have been out – no panic I could by 8 L of UHT. I hope you are right and it is all just a bit of symbolism.
On balance I think it is so, but I have not been able to listen – ABC playing cricket – typical!
As I say, I think for me it makes sense to stock up on canned food and water, given storms etc, and I needed battereis and a radio for that reason too.
I have delayed filling the sandbags!
But seriously people when Matt posted that UK coivil defence video., presumably to make a joke of it, he was actually putting up something very useful indeed. The thing is that if there were a nuclear attack if you are in the immediate hit zone then you are gone for sure. However if you are 10-50 km away you have a survival chance.
1. You need to stop fires, so usual fire precautions needed
2. You MUST stay indoors in a contained area for at least 2 weeks or longer. the first two days absolutely inner, inner inner, then for two weeks you can spread a little. Now I had heard of preppies digging shelters and figures that was bonkers, but the little UK video suggested the obvious – sandbags stacked on furniture. (they suggest removing doors too to support sand bgs but that is a bit too preppy for me.
The thing is the greater the mass between you and the outside, you will stop the alpha and beta particles easily and even the gammas.
So if you can keep out of the dust for two maybe four weeks then you should be able to survive the initial attack.
After that it is whatever the final outcome is re the world and nuclear winter etc. Unpredictable, but certainly not a foregone conclusion about being wiped out.
My complaint of Trump is that he does not go far enough. Clinton would have been a far better C-i-C.
Briefly
So you are also opposed to the current action?
lizzie @ #2030 Saturday, April 14th, 2018 – 11:21 am
You are way too modest and could easily master the cartoons.
But I see you chose to go the outsourcing route and let others undertake that task. Good management!
War – what is it good for ?
Absolutely nothing.
Lovey says:
Saturday, April 14, 2018 at 3:07 pm
Briefly
So you are also opposed to the current action?
Not at all. It does not go far enough. The targets should include the Syrian airforce, airbases and control systems and any Russian aircraft that happen to be stationed with the Syrian forces.
The goal should be to require Russia to de-scale and remove itself.
A R @ #2107 Saturday, April 14th, 2018 – 2:47 pm
AR
Why so certain.
They have fabricated many similar events and the Brits are past masters. Then of course there are French who blow up greenies. Rainbow warrior anyone.
Once again the idea that Assad would risk US intervention with a chemical attack is so batshit crazy that it must be assumed that those who believe it are just as batshit bonkers. Given that the Russians FOUND chemicals in Gouta amongst the rebels and given they alerted the world that a false flag was to be expected you are on very thin ice my friend.
I guess brieflys retirement from PB was fake news.
We should think of Russian aggression in Crimea, the Don, the Mid-east/Med as being analogous to the German re-occupation and militarisation of the Rhineland and the annexation of the Sudeten in the 1930s.
Trump’s megaphone military strategy has at least had one positive outcome:
daretotread. @ #2037 Saturday, April 14th, 2018 – 11:52 am
You would find yourself right at home in one of those crazy RWNJ survivalist militias in the US.
Have you considered migrating?
They might even take you seriously.
Rex Douglas @ #2125 Saturday, April 14th, 2018 – 12:08 pm
Rubbish, quite a few fortunes have been made out of it!
daretotread. says:
Saturday, April 14, 2018 at 3:09 pm
Once again the idea that Assad would risk US intervention with a chemical attack is so batshit crazy that it must be assumed…
…that Assad is not the author of this barbarity. Power in Syria is in Russian hands. Russia is responsible.
daretotread.
Relax about the Alphas. All you need is a sheet of paper to stop them coming through the open windows. 🙂 Just don’t ingest any alpha emitters. That’s when they get ya.
Briefly
You propose outright war with Syria.
Yet you opposed the invasion of Iraq. At least there was a self-defence alibi in the latter.
It seems your only rationale for this disparity is your opposition to Russia.
Where is the logic in taking sides between USA and Russia ?
Barney in Go Dau
The Krupp family whole heartedly concur.
poroti @ #2133 Saturday, April 14th, 2018 – 3:13 pm
Absolutely Poroti
Hence the boiled water – that PREDATES the fallout obviously. the boiling does not kill anyradiactive material, but prevents bacterial nasties growing which can als kill you. Not nice to be stuck in bomb shelter with the runs. Icky!!!
Also the reason to stock up heavily on food which again predates the fall out.
I am inclined to think trying to protect against gamma is a waste of time – if you are that close you are probably fried chicken anyway.
Briefly – Putin, like Hitler, knows that he must run a dynamic regime or collapse. If he is not finding enemies, launching military actions, projecting an image of power, they will realise that he has turned Russia into a shit-hole and turf him out. Average per capita income of $8,000. Wow.
Lovey says:
Saturday, April 14, 2018 at 3:14 pm
Briefly
You propose outright war with Syria.
No I don’t.
I was astonished by and opposed to the civil war in Syria from the very outset. But I think Russia is a very serious problem. The utterly idiotic attempt to depose Assad has not only brought catastrophe to the people of Syria, it has strengthened the Russo-Iranian position. This has the potential to be equally catastrophic for Lebanon, Turkey and Israel. Russia should be forced to withdraw…brought by the West to negotiation, backed by the willingness to use force.
Russian embassy media releases read like Trump tweets.
Lovey says:
Saturday, April 14, 2018 at 3:14 pm
Briefly
Yet you opposed the invasion of Iraq. At least there was a self-defence alibi in the latter.
There was never any justification for the invasion of Iraq. It could be very easily foreseen that the consequences of invasion would be an increase in Iranian power and the potential collapse of order not only in Iraq but also in both Syria and Turkey, which would have the potential to draw Russia into conflict with the West. This is exactly what has happened.
This is a perfect illustration of the maxim that it is easy to start wars but seldom possible to end them on the terms envisaged by the protagonists.
The war in Syria has to be brought to an end. This should include the withdrawal of Russia.
Another day in the life of the chaotic, dysfunctional reality TV show that is the Trump Administration.
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/04/13/politics/kfile-hhs-official-obama-clinton-treason/index.html
ANTONBRUCKNER11 @ #2138 Saturday, April 14th, 2018 – 3:18 pm
Anton
The fallacy in your comment is that before putin the place had turned into a third world hell hole. $8000 is many times better than it was pre Putin and way, better than that received in Ukraine. Moreover the rel measure is always purchasing parity. The silly concept of comparing things to the US$ is just a piece of ignorant hubris.
The issue is what people can afford on their wages and pensions. So here in Australia a minimum wage worker might take home after tax $600pw but after paying for housing may be left with $250-300. Take out electricity, transport and phone and you may have $250 pw for food, clothing and living.
So the issue then is what does that $8000 buy you. If it buys you a home, electricity, food and transport with a bit over for the movies and alcohol, then that $8,000 is exactly the same as our minimum wage. Sure if the average Russian worker wants to take a holiday in Europe it matters but provided he/sh stays within Russia it probably does not.
There are plenty of sites that do measure incomes on the basis of PPP. I suggest you look at them.
Syria was always an ally of Russia(USSR). Any civil war there would involve them.
But you are saying that Russia, not Assad, oredered chemical strike? This makes no more sense, the question would still be why would they want to provoke this action.
daretotread. @ #2106 Saturday, April 14th, 2018 – 2:43 pm
Like cancelling your flight to Damascus?
briefly @ #2113 Saturday, April 14th, 2018 – 2:50 pm
briefly! I think DTT has hacked your account.
That is just nonsense on a par with DTTs worst.
Lovey says:
Saturday, April 14, 2018 at 3:28 pm
Syria was always an ally of Russia(USSR). Any civil war there would involve them.
But you are saying that Russia, not Assad, oredered chemical strike? This makes no more sense, the question would still be why would they want to provoke this action.
The answer is that Russia is an assertive mode. It is run by a military clique who believe the destiny of the Russian state will be met by its expansion…by conquest, by annexation, by subordination. Russia is using a proxy to test its opponents. This is very low rent from a Russian viewpoint. The motherland is not at risk, but it can make gains by using others.
One Trump supporter’s view:
bemused….Examine Russian actions..in the Baltic States, Ukraine, Crimea, central Asia, the Caucasus, the Mediterranean, the EU and the UK, the US.
They speak for themselves.