Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

The Newspoll everyone has been waiting for is in all other respects a dull, steady, status quo result.

Malcolm Turnbull’s thirtieth successive Newspoll loss is 52-48 to Labor, down from 53-47, which actually completes a hat trick of polls for the Coalition over recent days which have been at the better end of normal for them (see previous post on Ipsos and Morgan results). On the primary vote, the Coalition up one to 38%, Labor is down two to 37%, the Greens are up one to 10% and One Nation is steady on 7%.

As Kevin Bonham has observed, it seems likely that Newspoll is no longer using a roughly 50-50 preference split for One Nation as per the results of the 2016 election, but is instead being guided by the lean towards the Coalition evident at the Queensland and Western Australian elections. This was apparent in the pollster’s recent quarterly state breakdowns, and this latest poll would come out at 52.7-47.3 if the earlier measure had been used (albeit that rounding might have changed this).

For personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is steady on 32% approval and up one on disapproval to 57%; Bill Shorten is down two to 32% and up three to 57%. On preferred prime minister, Turnbull is down a point to 38%, while Shorten is steady on 36%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1597.

Correctives to the notion that Tony Abbott should feel vindicated:

• Newspoll has been a lot less volatile in Malcolm Turnbull’s time than it was in Tony Abbott’s, when it was essentially a different poll – but even the most favourable outliers under Abbott failed to draw the Coalition level, such was the scale of their underlying deficit.

• At the time of his ousting in September 2015, my trend measure found Tony Abbott with a net approval of around 30%. Turnbull is currently at around minus 20% and was only as low as minus 25% at his nadir, whereas Abbott bottomed out at minus 45% right after the Prince Phillip knighthood on Australia Day 2015.

• Turnbull also enjoys a modest but consistent lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister, whereas Abbott never did better than equal him, and was usually behind — often badly, which is very unusual for the incumbent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

833 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Rex Douglas @ #546 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 2:57 pm

    Barney in Go Dau @ #541 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 5:53 pm

    Puffytmd @ #530 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 2:46 pm

    I do not know how we can stop the horror of live export now. There are too many well connected people making money out of it. They are impervious to public opinion.

    1. Expand our capacity to process these animals within Australia so that it meets the processing requirements of the destination countries.

    Then,

    2. Ban the bulk live exports of animals.

    Lib-Lab policy is to continue live export.

    Greens policy is to ban live export.

    Who gets your vote ?

    Neither, because neither position is a reasonable real world solution. 🙂

  2. Barney in Go Dau @ #553 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 6:00 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #546 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 2:57 pm

    Barney in Go Dau @ #541 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 5:53 pm

    Puffytmd @ #530 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 2:46 pm

    I do not know how we can stop the horror of live export now. There are too many well connected people making money out of it. They are impervious to public opinion.

    1. Expand our capacity to process these animals within Australia so that it meets the processing requirements of the destination countries.

    Then,

    2. Ban the bulk live exports of animals.

    Lib-Lab policy is to continue live export.

    Greens policy is to ban live export.

    Who gets your vote ?

    Neither, because neither position is a reasonable real world solution. 🙂

    Boerwars Informal Party welcomes you with open arms.

  3. **Lib-Lab policy is to continue live export. Greens policy is to ban live export. Who gets your vote ?**

    If only it were that simple. The only way to get live export banned is to vote for the ALP and lobby for change both with ALP MPs and in the wider community.

    So the policy is a vote changer. But only in so far as changing my vote will increase the chance of it happening.

  4. Rex Douglas @ #552 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 3:02 pm

    Barney in Go Dau @ #553 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 6:00 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #546 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 2:57 pm

    Barney in Go Dau @ #541 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 5:53 pm

    Puffytmd @ #530 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 2:46 pm

    I do not know how we can stop the horror of live export now. There are too many well connected people making money out of it. They are impervious to public opinion.

    1. Expand our capacity to process these animals within Australia so that it meets the processing requirements of the destination countries.

    Then,

    2. Ban the bulk live exports of animals.

    Lib-Lab policy is to continue live export.

    Greens policy is to ban live export.

    Who gets your vote ?

    Neither, because neither position is a reasonable real world solution. 🙂

    Boerwars Informal Party welcomes you with open arms.

    Yes, I can understand your problem Reactionary Rex.

    You might vote on single issues but I actually consider the whole Party platform when deciding on who to vote for and preference. 🙂

  5. “This will be an interesting contrast! Also from Leigh Sales
    My guest tonight is the Treasurer, Scott Morrison #abc730”

    I imagine there will be one interruption for Scot for every fifty for Bill.

  6. Simon² Katich® @ #556 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 6:06 pm

    **Lib-Lab policy is to continue live export. Greens policy is to ban live export. Who gets your vote ?**

    If only it were that simple. The only way to get live export banned is to vote for the ALP and lobby for change both with ALP MPs and in the wider community.

    So the policy is a vote changer. But only in so far as changing my vote will increase the chance of it happening.

    A vote for Labor is a vote for live export. That’s their policy.

    A Labor-Green minority Govt would see the end of live exporting.

  7. Barney in Go Dau @ #558 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 6:09 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #552 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 3:02 pm

    Barney in Go Dau @ #553 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 6:00 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #546 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 2:57 pm

    Barney in Go Dau @ #541 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 5:53 pm

    Puffytmd @ #530 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 2:46 pm

    I do not know how we can stop the horror of live export now. There are too many well connected people making money out of it. They are impervious to public opinion.

    1. Expand our capacity to process these animals within Australia so that it meets the processing requirements of the destination countries.

    Then,

    2. Ban the bulk live exports of animals.

    Lib-Lab policy is to continue live export.

    Greens policy is to ban live export.

    Who gets your vote ?

    Neither, because neither position is a reasonable real world solution. 🙂

    Boerwars Informal Party welcomes you with open arms.

    Yes, I can understand your problem Reactionary Rex.

    You might vote on single issues but I actually consider the whole Party platform when deciding on who to vote for and preference. 🙂

    I get the impression you’re partisan Labor and will accept and adapt to whatever their policy is.

  8. Simon² Katich® @ #554 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 3:06 pm

    **Lib-Lab policy is to continue live export. Greens policy is to ban live export. Who gets your vote ?**

    If only it were that simple. The only way to get live export banned is to vote for the ALP and lobby for change both with ALP MPs and in the wider community.

    So the policy is a vote changer. But only in so far as changing my vote will increase the chance of it happening.

    Yep, Labor has shown what they think of live trade and at the same time they showed how ridiculous the Green policy is because that’s what they did.

    As I said before, it needs structural changes here first to minimise the impact to the Industry.

  9. Bemused is irrationally one-eyed where Rudd is concerned.

    There was a time I was sad for Rudd but his insistence on vengeance has, by degrees, trashed all respect I ever felt for him.

    Bemused’s one-eyedness was something I originally thought was ‘quaint but understandable loyalty’. But his knee jerk responses every time anyone criticises Rudd is now something that defies logic and reality.

    His posts about Rudd might be more eloquent than Wayne but the sentiment is the same as Wayne’s posts about Turnbull.

  10. Steve Davis: “Then theres Cockup,Pissup and Fuckup. (3 members of the Liberal party).”

    I think you’ll find—per https://www.theaustralian.com.au/blah —that the Nats, and more particularly Barnaby, own cock-up, viz:

    “Yeah, sorry, there’s been a cock-up. I’m not saying it was me, I’m not saying it wasn’t me. Let’s just say it’s a bit of a grey area.”

  11. Rex Douglas @ #560 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 3:14 pm

    I get the impression you’re partisan Labor and will accept and adapt to whatever their policy is.

    I’m strongly progressive with a firm reality (pragmatic) streak and favour the interests of the Society over that of business and the individual.

    I’m partisan to no Party but certainly Labor fits the best on the progressive side, the others are too often off playing with the pixies. 🙂

  12. Bemused’s one-eyedness was something I originally thought was ‘quaint but understandable loyalty’. But his knee jerk responses every time anyone criticises Rudd is now something that defies logic and reality.

    His posts about Rudd might be more eloquent than Wayne but the sentiment is the same as Wayne’s posts about Turnbull.

    Precisely why there is no point engaging with either of them.

  13. Uniquely of any site on the internet, my PC won’t bring up PB. I’ve tried three different browsers, rebooting the computer, rebooting the router, hard refreshing, clearing the cache, turning off the anti-virus and firewall, logging out of Google, using a VPN, doing a DNS flush in command line, and probably some other stuff that I’ve forgotten right now. Can any of you tech geniuses out there think of anything obvious I’ve missed?

  14. Precisely why there is no point engaging with either of them.

    Yep. Life’s too short. Plus, too many other good people to engage with instead of wasting your time that way.

  15. William Bowe @ #569 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 6:29 pm

    Uniquely of any site on the internet, my PC won’t bring up PB. I’ve tried three different browsers, rebooting the computer, rebooting the router, hard refreshing, clearing the cache, turning off the anti-virus and firewall, logging out of Google, using a VPN, doing a DNS flush in command line, and probably some other stuff that I’ve forgotten right now. Can any of you tech geniuses out there think of anything obvious I’ve missed?

    Change from Word Press to Blogger. 🙂

    It was developed by Pyra Labs, which was bought by Google in 2003. Generally, the blogs are hosted by Google at a subdomain of blogspot.com. … Unlike WordPress.com, Blogger allows its users to use their own domain free of charge, while WordPress.com charges around $13 to use a custom domain.

    You’re welcome. 🙂

  16. Catching up on the place names thread
    A favourite of mine is “On the Queensland Railway Lines”
    According to the Centenary Songbook, the dining choices are factual – even for the males only showers at Mackay!
    My recall suggests a better line “Passengers have died of hunger, On the way to Thuckalungra”
    http://railwaystory.com/song/007.htm

  17. William

    Have you tried pinging the website? If you don’t have a connection path, there is a set of possible faults.

  18. William Bowe @ #571 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 6:29 pm

    Uniquely of any site on the internet, my PC won’t bring up PB. I’ve tried three different browsers, rebooting the computer, rebooting the router, hard refreshing, clearing the cache, turning off the anti-virus and firewall, logging out of Google, using a VPN, doing a DNS flush in command line, and probably some other stuff that I’ve forgotten right now. Can any of you tech geniuses out there think of anything obvious I’ve missed?

    No tech geniuses chez KayJay.

    However, what type of computer is involved and what is the operating system ❓

  19. @Will

    1. Something on the server side has changed.

    2. Rebooting modem doesn’t reset most times, try actually turning off for a couple of minutes.

  20. From Bevan Shields Fairfax..

    Barnaby Joyce thinks the PM should consider his position by Christmas if his polling position doesn’t improve
    “Malcolm is not a fool, he’d know that himself”
    #auspol

    This is a pretty big call from the former deputy prime minister. He said Malcolm Turnbull had an obligation to not contest the next election as PM if the numbers suggested he couldn’t win it #auspol

  21. William

    That’s why the browsers don’t work

    First thing, the edit component, or authoring/owner URL of the WordPress may be down, being upgraded, or otherwise unavailable. I would wait and try later.

    Then email or otherwise contact the company who sells you this

  22. Barnaby Joyce thinks the PM should consider his position by Christmas if his polling position doesn’t improve

    For someone who doesn’t get a vote in the Lib leadership Ballot, nor could hold his leadership within his own party, Barnaby has some nerve making demands of Turnbull.

    Is today Souffle Rises Again Day what with Abbott, Rudd and now Barnaby parading around like roosters instead of the feather dusters they are in reality?

  23. The drip from Coorey –

    Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton has positioned himself as the next Liberal Party leader should Malcolm Turnbull fall but says the Prime Minister can, and should, take the government to victory at the next election.

    Amid a day of intense introspection by the Coalition following its 30th successive negative Newspoll, Mr Dutton, the conservative’s candidate of choice, said his current unpopularity need not be an impediment.

    “You don’t have to be liked in politics,” he said, adding it was not like reality television.

    “You need to make tough decisions and people respect you in the end, I think, for sticking by your beliefs and sticking by your convictions.”

    …As Mr Turnbull and his ministers tried to use the occasion to steer the focus back on Labor and the economy, Mr Abbott and his supporters made mischief.

    …Deputy leader Julie Bishop, the only Liberal who rivals Mr Turnbull in terms of preferred leader and who would throw her hat in the ring alongside Mr Dutton, also backed the status quo on Monday.

    “I don’t envisage those circumstances occurring at all,” she said of a pre-election spill.

    …Mr Abbott defended his right to keep agitating.

    “It is the right and the duty of backbench members of Parliament to speak their minds,” he said.

    Read more: http://www.afr.com/news/peter-dutton-positions-himself-just-in-case-malcolm-turnbull-falls-20180409-h0yipt#

  24. Meanwhile in Sydney…

    Sydney recorded its hottest April day ever with 35.4C and the endless summer is tipped to continue

  25. I get the impression you’re partisan Labor and will accept and adapt to whatever their policy is.

    And I get the very strong impression that you’re Anti Bill Shorten Labor, Rex, and adapt your position accordingly as necessary.

    I mean, take your current cause du jour, Live Sheep Export. Well, yet again, you try to tar Labor with the same brush as the government, even though Labor are not in government and can do nothing about it right now. Not to mention the fact that the last time this issue came up, former Labor Minister for Agriculture, Joe Ludwig, bent over backwards to heed The Greens’ wailing plaints to ban the trade whilst a new Code of Conduct was drawn up. What did Labor get for their trouble? More grief from The Greens because Labor didn’t ban it altogether, even though some ME countries refused to take pre-slaughtered frozen meat. We should have just abandoned those markets according to the All Care and No Responsibility Party. Plus Labor turned around and gave their asses to be kicked by the Coalition and Tony Abbott.

    So, you can have your Single Issue, Sheep’s heart on your sleeve vote, Rex, and you can take it back to La La Land. Reality bites, and it bit Labor from both ends really, really hard last time, when they were actually in government and could do something about it. However, they have learned a salient lesson. NEVER trust The Greens to agree to anything you do. Just like Guy’s Liberals in Victoria. They will say one thing to your face, then pull the rug out from under you as soon as you aren’t looking.


  26. William Bowe says:
    Monday, April 9, 2018 at 6:29 pm

    .
    anything obvious I’ve missed?

    Unlike the rest of us you will be blog god. It will be an issue with your hosting.

  27. More from Lethal Leigh. Why to I get an inkling something’s a brewin’?

    Leigh Sales ” Coming up on #abc730 – the Treasurer Scott Morrison says he would see himself as a candidate for the Liberal leadership if it became available. “

  28. This kind of stuff is why I’m increasingly of the view that Turnbull will likely hope for a sugar-hit post-Budget, and go to an election in August/September. The more they wait, the worse it’ll likely get. They won’t delay the 2019 Budget to have a May election, which means the latest the election could be to not interfere with the NSW election in late March, would be an election in the early part of March, noting that NSW will be in caretaker from the last week of February and the state campaign will be underway. Victoria kind of knocks out November.

    So, my view on the windows are August to mid-September. Then the last two weeks of October. I still think, regardless of what people think about Turnbull, that he thinks he can out-campaign Shorten. The combination of Turnbull’s ego and the risk posed by a longer post-Budget period is more likey to trigger an early election to force the partyroom behind him a la Newman in Qld.

  29. Poor William!
    It’s obvious he has been hacked by the dastardly Rudd.
    Everyone on PB knows that Kev is responsible for anything bad that happens.

  30. sprocket_ @ #589 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 3:55 pm

    More from Lethal Leigh. Why to I get an inkling something’s a brewin’?

    Leigh Sales ” Coming up on #abc730 – the Treasurer Scott Morrison says he would see himself as a candidate for the Liberal leadership if it became available. “

    Line up! Line up! Line up!

    Get your tickets to become the next PM!!!!

    🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

  31. The Bludger Liberation Front has taken control of the site. We must await the counter attacks from GOD Bilbo and the Peoples’ Bludger Liberation Front. .

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