Malcolm Turnbull’s thirtieth successive Newspoll loss is 52-48 to Labor, down from 53-47, which actually completes a hat trick of polls for the Coalition over recent days which have been at the better end of normal for them (see previous post on Ipsos and Morgan results). On the primary vote, the Coalition up one to 38%, Labor is down two to 37%, the Greens are up one to 10% and One Nation is steady on 7%.
As Kevin Bonham has observed, it seems likely that Newspoll is no longer using a roughly 50-50 preference split for One Nation as per the results of the 2016 election, but is instead being guided by the lean towards the Coalition evident at the Queensland and Western Australian elections. This was apparent in the pollster’s recent quarterly state breakdowns, and this latest poll would come out at 52.7-47.3 if the earlier measure had been used (albeit that rounding might have changed this).
For personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is steady on 32% approval and up one on disapproval to 57%; Bill Shorten is down two to 32% and up three to 57%. On preferred prime minister, Turnbull is down a point to 38%, while Shorten is steady on 36%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1597.
Correctives to the notion that Tony Abbott should feel vindicated:
• Newspoll has been a lot less volatile in Malcolm Turnbull’s time than it was in Tony Abbott’s, when it was essentially a different poll – but even the most favourable outliers under Abbott failed to draw the Coalition level, such was the scale of their underlying deficit.
• At the time of his ousting in September 2015, my trend measure found Tony Abbott with a net approval of around 30%. Turnbull is currently at around minus 20% and was only as low as minus 25% at his nadir, whereas Abbott bottomed out at minus 45% right after the Prince Phillip knighthood on Australia Day 2015.
• Turnbull also enjoys a modest but consistent lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister, whereas Abbott never did better than equal him, and was usually behind — often badly, which is very unusual for the incumbent.
Rex Douglas @ #500 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 4:44 pm
In your dreams sunshine.
The ‘cash for clunkers’ and ‘citizens assembly’ brain farts were when the rot started and the woeful Policy Speech at the campaign opening put the seal on it.
From there on it was all downhill.
This is all about deflecting the issue from the Opposition’s actions but the Independent in question doesn’t help to clear up the picture very much.
Guy’s comment saying the Government has questions to answer are piss and wind.
He is the one who has flouted Parliamentary Convention.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-04-09/vic-mp-denies-chucking-a-sickie-to-avoid-controversial-vote/9634306
bemused @ #503 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 4:50 pm
Sounds like you were the brains behind Rudds campaign of vengeance… ?
Ah Moe! The town that time has passed by…………………..I blame it all on the closure of the railway line to Erica and Walhalla…………………..
Rex Douglas @ #503 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 4:54 pm
What, the plan that exists only in the febrile imaginations of people like you?
Rex:
If bemused wants to live happily and ignorantly in his own bubble circa 2010 you should let him.
Those of us in the real world are dealing with the issues of today, not those of 8 years ago.
Confessions @ #508 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 4:59 pm
Rudds menacing presence is sadly an issue of today …and tomorrow….
Tricot says: Monday, April 9, 2018 at 4:57 pm
Ah Moe! The town that time has passed by…………………..I blame it all on the closure of the railway line to Erica and Walhalla…………………..
******************************************
Hi Tricot – long time, no see…… the old Gippy memories are still there with you ….. hope all is well with you !!!!
Oh god, is this going to be yet another night of ‘I’m so far up Rudd’s quoit that I can’t see the wood for the trees’ from bemused?
🙄
Rex Douglas @ #507 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 2:04 pm
Rudd is only a menace if there are still people within the federal Parliament willing to push his agenda.
If those people do not exist anything Rudd says is irrelevant and he should rightfully be ignored. 🙂
** Oh god, is this going to be yet another night of ‘I’m so far up Rudd’s quoit that I can’t see the wood for the trees’ from bemused? **
I sniff a self-fulfilling prophecy.
1. MOE n ‘state of confusion on father’s day’
2. MOE acronym ‘margin of error’ (see 1)
PRed………………..have been lurking…………hard to get into the conversation at times………….even if I wanted to. I see ersatz Rudd wars are in the air again……………………………….time to bail out!
Yes Rex it is, but indulging the whining of a Rudd cultist’s intent to relive the events of 8 years ago is a total waste of time.
Everyone else has moved on to 2018.
Simon² Katich® @ #511 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 2:13 pm
OOooooooh, no, you don’t!! 🙂
The Kevin Rudd tweet is being discussed on ‘The Drum’ — described as a dysfunctional tantrum.
zoomster @ #519 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 5:18 pm
‘dysfunctional’ sums up Rudds attempt at the PMship
** OOooooooh, no, you don’t!! **
Oh no? Maybe it is the neighbours septic I smell. Or the cat has been up to no good.
Barney in Go Dau @ #502 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 4:51 pm
+1 on the piss and wind comment. But I think it goes deeper than flouting a convention. Denying a pair could be said to be flouting the convention. These two, with apparent knowledge and assistance and public approval from their leader, deliberately and falsely accepted a pair. They are proud of their cleverness, feigning illness (“…I have been sitting here since midnight and I fell quite ill, to be sitting here on Good Friday when I know that I should not work on Good Friday”) and feigning religious devotion (“…this is the day my Lord was crucified. I do not want to be here.”), and they don’t care that you know it.
Fool me twice? Nope.
Rex Douglas @ #517 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 5:21 pm
Now he is simply diss-functional. 🙂
http://www.news.com.au/national/politics/tony-abbott-and-kevin-andrews-use-charity-bike-ride-to-push-coalfired-power-message/news-story/dad7a7aa37d9222a947a63c0369e688e?from=rss-basic&utm_content=SocialFlow&utm_campaign=EditorialSF&utm_medium=Twitter&utm_source=News.com.au
And you have to watch the video to hear the comments the pair make about coal standing with Hazelwood in the background: “A tragedy the station closed.” “We can’t afford to lose more coal-fired power stations…”. “We need to rebuild new coal-fired power stations!”
Have we all been transported back to 1918? This is truly bizarre stuff from a purportedly mainstream political party in this day and age.
Typical freaking Rudd. Just when we should be celebrating 30 Newspoll wins by the ALP we are talking about him and his failed PMship. Deja Vu much!
I wish the rat would just do what I earlier today told him on Twitter.
Just go away.
A question to fellow PBers.
Is the live export issue on its own an issue of importance enough to affect your vote ?
Puffytmd @ #526 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 5:36 pm
The ALP should have the strength to expel him and the problem is fixed.
** Is the live export issue on its own an issue of importance enough to affect your vote ? **
Yes. And I speak on behalf of all reasonable PB’ers (both know who they are).
More importantly, it is also an issue that divides many Liberal voters from many Nationals/PHON voters.
Rex
The ALP cannot expel an ex-pm without bringing up memories of The Troubles all over again. Turnbull and Abbott would open champagne and hug each other.
And expelling him would not stop him. It would probably make him worse.
We can only hope he gets the message, and gets on board where he can help, or stays out of it.
All his whining is no good for anyone but the Coalition.
Just to settle the Rudd issue he & Trump are different sides of the same coin… not worth analysing.
I do not know how we can stop the horror of live export now. There are too many well connected people making money out of it. They are impervious to public opinion.
Rex Douglas @ #526 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 2:38 pm
What problem would be fixed?
He is not making any comments in any official capacity within the Party.
Any comments like this will be picked up no matter whether he is a Party member or not.
Once again you react without thinking! 🙂
Tweeted by Liberal Leigh
Also joining me tonight for his first #abc730 of the year is Opposition Leader Bill Shorten.
SK
Who’s the other one?
Wurrumiyanga
Djambarrpuyngu
Alpurrurulam
————-
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-04-09/country-liberal-party-stalwart-graeme-lewis-dead/9631412
Didn’t agree with a lot of his politics, and he recently had some serious questions to answer about funding arrangements for his beloved CLP.
But he was a major player in NT politics for decades on the conservative side, more connected to and comfortable dealing with the real world than many of his fellow conservatives. We crossed paths socially a few times many years back and he was always decent enough company, and seemed a genuine family man.
Condolences to his family.
Puffytmd @ #530 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 5:44 pm
The ALP has to publicly disassociate itself from him once and for all before it can move on unencumbered. Rudd would then be seen as Latham is now – a bitter man with no home and no base and no authority.
This will be an interesting contrast! Also from Leigh Sales
My guest tonight is the Treasurer, Scott Morrison #abc730
Djambarrpuyngu
Actually a language, not a place name. But just for fun. 🙂
Who is this Rudd guy?
Puffytmd @ #530 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 2:46 pm
1. Expand our capacity to process these animals within Australia so that it meets the processing requirements of the destination countries.
Then,
2. Ban the bulk live exports of animals.
From the AFR on energy
It would be better for all of us if the energy minister and the Prime Minister had the confidence to explain to the voters how the energy market is evolving rather than brandishing some form of coal power whenever they have a problem with Tony Abbott.
A chronicle of the various lies peddled by Frydenberg.
Read more: http://www.afr.com/business/energy/truth-is-the-first-casualty-in-the-coal-wars-20180408-h0yi6n#ixzz5C9xKsTNE
Follow us: @FinancialReview on Twitter | financialreview on Facebook
730 has a panel comprised ScoMo and Shorten?
frednk @ #538 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 2:53 pm
Some has been, so Who cares? 🙂
Sounds like Trump Pal Netanyahu needs a distraction for his woes – bombs Syria. Heaven help us with foreign policy via twitter!
Puffytmd @ #524 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 5:36 pm
Yes, people like you just keep going on and on about a tweet of little significance.
I’ve been to Whakatane 🙂
Barney in Go Dau @ #541 Monday, April 9th, 2018 – 5:53 pm
Lib-Lab policy is to continue live export.
Greens policy is to ban live export.
Who gets your vote ?
The abbatoir in Katanning apparently does halal certified processing to meet the needs of muslim customers, and I remember during the state govt election last year they had a PHON candidate for the electorate who campaigned on shutting it down because it discriminated against non-muslim people.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-13/one-nation-say-halal-slaughtermen-jobs-discriminatory/8265878
The Drum hosted by PvO was excellent tonight. Murpharoo best on ground.
Live export is banned in NZ. The main western exporting countries need to organise and force a change to the cultural practices that still refuse packaged meat. Most (all?) of the countries that we sell live export to also buy packaged meats – so this problem is not insurmountable.
I have been to livestock markets in some far flung places and I understand how important it is for some to see the live animal before they buy it and slaughter it. This practice can continue with their own stock. If such a country needs mass imports to keep up with meat eating demand then they can adjust to packaged meat.
Long haul livestock transport in Australia also needs to be banned. Reinstate regional abattoirs FFS.
When in Whakatane make sure you visit White Island