Two days out from the one we’ve all been waiting for, Fairfax has cutely interjected with an Ipsos poll – conducted on this most special of occasions from Tuesday to Thursday for publication on Friday night, and not from Thursday to Saturday for publication on Sunday night as standard. The sample is 1166, somewhat lower than the usual 1400 from Ipsos.
The headline two-party result of 52-48 to Labor, as determined using 2016 election preference flows, is only slightly above the Coalition’s usual form – but Malcolm Turnbull is given a very useful straw to grasp with a tied result using respondent-allocated preferences. This is something the Coalition hasn’t achieved on either kind of two-party measure in any poll since September 2016, except for the quirky and apparently short-lived YouGov series for Fifty Acres. The previous Ipsos poll in early December had Labor leading 53-47 on previous election preferences and 52-48 on respondent allocation. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up two to 36%, Labor is up a point to 34%, and the Greens are down a point to 12% (high results for the Greens being a consistent features of Ipsos polls).
The good news for Malcolm Turnbull doesn’t end there: the poll finds only 28% in favour of the Liberals removing him as leader, compared with 62% who think he should remain, and his approval rating bounces five points to 47%, with disapproval down six to 43%. This is the first time since April last year that Turnbull has recorded net favourable personal ratings – the previous instance being another Ipsos poll, which is no coincidence, since the series consistently records high approval and low undecided ratings for both leaders. Bill Shorten is steady on 38% approval and up one on disapproval to 53%. The poll also finds 49% support for company tax cuts, with the number opposed not provided. This is dramatically more favourable than ReachTEL’s finding of 29% in favour and 56% opposed, although recent Essential Research polls have had slight net favourable results.
We have also had Roy Morgan publish results of its face-to-face polling for the second fortnight a row, which the pollster has hitherto been reserving for its massively expensive subscriber service since the 2016 election campaign. I’m not sure if this portends a regular return to publication, or if it will be appearing on an ad hoc basis, as the release a fortnight ago seemed to suggest. Whatever it is, the result is likewise on the high side for the Coalition, with Labor holding a steady 51-49 lead on two-party preferred. This is in contrast to the form of the Morgan face-to-face series of old, which was notorious for its skew to Labor.
However, as with Ipsos, it’s respondent allocation that’s making the difference – if previous election preferences were applied, Labor’s lead would be up from 51-49 to 53-47. The primary votes are Coalition 38.5%, down from 40% a fortnight ago; Labor 37.5%, up from 35%; Greens 11%, down from 12%; and One Nation on an unusually weak 3%, down from 3.5%. The Morgan release has two-party breakdowns by state and income category. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a combined sample of 1477.
Ok re the IPSOS link, I was distracted by the first paragraph
You just need the LNP-Murdoch dictionary to understand how different terms are applied to Labor or L/NP.
Situation: large budget deficit
Labor: debt and deficit disaster
Coalition: sound economic management; good economic story
Situation: a politician says something
Labor: populism
Coalition: sound policy
etc…
Steve777,
Trump: Populist: Good
Shorten: Populist: Bad
Fess
Thanks,
No, no hospital. Just a GP the next day.
The funny thing is I had counselled my children’s’ friends over the years about how unforgiving our floor is – multiple crockery breakages – because of the tiled floor. Just be careful, I’d say.
I never thought I’d meet it chest-on.
And, seriously, I’ve had broken bones before, but this has been the most debilitating. I guess ribs/lungs matter.
Labor intervention in the energy markets: picking winners in the economy.
Liberal intervention in the energy markets: guaranteed electricity supply.
kezza,
Ouch!!!!
Bruised and cracked ribs are probably the most painful injuries I ever had playing footy.
You certainly learn how to move without moving or you pay the consequences. 🙂
Kezza:
Well I hope you’re on the mend regardless.
kezza2 @ #249 Saturday, April 7th, 2018 – 6:59 pm
K2
Sorry to hear about your injuries.
You must be rather unlucky in how you land or I have been very lucky with falls I have had which scared the life out of me but I came out of them virtually unscathed.
That includes one just like yours with quite a hard landing!
Get better soon and take it easy.
Coalition cuts benefits for the battlers (real ones, not ‘Howard’ ones): essential savings
Labor cuts benefits for millionaires: class warfare
I’ve got a “dumb question” about losing 30 Newspolls. Please be gentle. For background there is a website that is very anti-Turnbull, to put it mildly. http://stopturnbull.com/a-change-of-tactics-2000-2009/
Among many many claims regarding Turnbull’s character flaws (and some wild rants about other stuff) it points to a time when Turnbull as LOTO lost 30 successive Newspolls. The first loss on 21st September, 2008, and the 30th loss on 30th November, 2009. Abbott became LOTO the day after, on 1st December, 2009.
Question: Is this true?
Because if it is true then “30 successive losses” becomes a real grudge. Abbott replaced Turnbull on the 30th loss to assume the position of LOTO. Then Turbull “got his revenge” on Abbott to claim the PM ship no less. Now another 30th loss approaches. These two men have history. It’s personal. And I would not be surprised if something nasty happens to Turnbull on Monday. (Dutton?) And also, Turnbull has already lost 30 in a row and will be just a tad nervous at the moment.
Kezza
Ouch, and double ouch. I hope you mend quickly.
You need some of that armour horse-event riders and jockeys use. The armour inflates in impact, preventing serious injuries.
Whilst I’ve been immobile, I thought I’d give the keyboard a clean.
Lots of dog hair.!!
The funny thing about the new electorate of Cox, is that Russell Broadbent’s suggestion for a replacement of the murdering Angus McMillan has not come to fruiton. A more worthy cause, I would have thought.
Steve777
My fave in the Murdoch dictionary is when it comes to changes in a policy
Labor : Backflip, back down , cave in
Coalition : Fine tuning, re calibration , adjustment.
Steve777 @ #260 Saturday, April 7th, 2018 – 4:28 pm
Where is this class system in Australia?
It seems Labor is just looking to re-establish some integrity to our progressive tax system. 🙂
It’s the usual story. When something goes wrong under a LNP government, it is always the fault of somebody else.
The problem for Ms Berejiklian is that the massive disruption to the CBD and nearby suburbs over an extended period is plain to see. People will blame her government rather than the contractor.
In contrast, the light rail construction in Canberra under a Labor government has suffered none of the scandals afflicting the Sydney undertaking. There must be a lesson in here somewhere.
kezza2 @ #262 Saturday, April 7th, 2018 – 7:42 pm
I thought McMillan had become Monash.
Craig Wallace
@CraigWtweets
·
25m
Bit of a contrast between those coiffed monied ATO officials & a poor woman transcriber eking out a living in a caravan with a solar panel
Barney in Go Dau @ #264 Saturday, April 7th, 2018 – 7:44 pm
Barney, the ABC , you know, that organisation so hated by most of PB, is running a series on the very topic of ‘Class Act’ http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/projects/class-act/.
You can listen when it is streamed or download the podcasts.
The ABC Series “Class Act” – worth a listen.
ABC does high brow tv show considering important and interesting issues of class in Australia, therefore we just imagined they silenced Nick Ross, and delayed other fraudband stories to that helpful time for voters just after the election, we imagined that moron without equal Uhlmann ran absolutely ridiculous and false anti-renewable stories. We just imagined they ran a Barnaby rehab piece last week followed by Howard ‘save Turnbull’ promo.
Yeah no that ABC news is fantastic.
Thanks everyone for your wellwishes/concern.
I did throw an arm out, at the last, to protect my face. I needn’t have bothered. Just took the whole blow on my chest. And ended up with a sore arm, to boot.
A bruised sternum is no laughing matter, though.
Just be careful out there, of rogue internet cables.
kezza2 @ #271 Saturday, April 7th, 2018 – 8:20 pm
I won’t tell you about my most dramatic fall as it would make you laugh and cause pain. 😐
Bemused
“I thought McMillan had become Monash.”
Are you serious? McMillan is West Gippsland (from Pakenham to Morwell)
kezza2 @ #273 Saturday, April 7th, 2018 – 8:25 pm
I checked and it has been renamed Monash.
From William’s comments on this thread: https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/04/06/victorian-act-draft-federal-redistributions
Kezza
Glad you threw an arm out.
Many years ago I was out walking one morning with the mother of my children when she took a tumble over a raised slab in the path and went down on her nose, literally.
We headed off to the doctor where he looked at her facial injuries and then started asking what I thought were odd questions.
How did it happen again? Were you walking together? Side by side? Did you put your arm out?
Suddenly the penny dropped. I realised this bloke, not our usual GP, thinks I have given the missus a smack …
Fortunately for my reputation she had some scratches on her hand and another graze on her shoulder …
I was pretty pissed with him at the time but I guess, with the benefit of hindsight, he was entitled to be suspicious given he probably saw a fair bit of domestic violence.
Take care of yourself.
Once upon a time, I worked on a show with Russell Crowe. One actor got a black eye, one actor got fired.
Where’s Waldo (or Wally to us)? Pick the non-white White House interns just starting out.
https://twitter.com/MadisonSiriusXM/status/980158694058024960/photo/1
“A bruised sternum is no laughing matter, though.”
Nor are bruised ribs. And you need to avoid laughing matters until you’re feeling better.
The ABC isn’t biased, just thoroughly cowed into submission and starved of funds. It is self-censoring.
“It is self-censoring.”
and that is creating a bias, as Malcolm intended/intends when he makes his bullying phonecalls to management.
citizen @ #276 Saturday, April 7th, 2018 – 6:45 pm
As Bill Maher pointed out, why is it only young white people would work for this Administration for free?
Self censorship is indeed bias for a public broadcaster. Remember who is pulling the funding strings.
When life imitates art.
:large
I’m cool with an electorate named Monash.
Please tell me that Pakenham has been dropped off McMillan (now Monash).
Might make up for the time when Traralgon was given to Gippsland, and made Labor obsolete in this neck of the woods.
To cut “Howards aspirationals” from the Pakenham end of McMillan, might just give us a reason to get up in the morning.
—
rossmg. not fair, is it! but, it’s a good thing that domestic violence is taken seriously.
I wonder if Newspoll will give a lift to LNP?!??
**And you need to avoid laughing matters until you’re feeling better.**
Pretty safe on PB then. We are as serious as a stiff.
** I wonder if Newspoll will give a lift to LNP?!?? **
There has been no leaks leading up to it. Turnbull has had clean air. No-one to blame if it goes south.
True SK, if there was a lift to Turnbull, then I am sure we would have heard about it now, certainly a 4 on the PvO scale.
How Putin Played the Far Left
The Kremlin didn’t just rely on the alt-right to help Trump win. Bernie Bros, Greens, and ‘anti-imperialists’ got had, too.
In the aftermath of the U.S. intelligence community’s recent report on the Russian-directed hacking of the Democratic National Committee, it’s easy but misleading to conclude that the Russian government’s propaganda strategy lies solely in advancing the careers of conservative Republicans in the United States. Backing Donald Trump’s candidacy, via steady leaks of stolen communiques to organizations like WikiLeaks, was but one prong of the Kremlin’s assault on American liberal democracy. Part of its campaign to vilify Hillary Clinton involved catering to her rivals on the far-left and pushing any number of crankish conspiracy theories that appeal as much to “anti-imperialists” as to neo-Nazis.
There’s nothing new in that, really.
Moscow’s attempts to cultivate America’s far-left long predate the presidency of Vladimir Putin. The Kremlin, according to available evidence, donated more funds per capita to the U.S. Communist Party than any other communist claque during the Soviet period, when Moscow’s intelligence operations against the “main adversary” involved recruiting agents of influence and spies of a progressive background who were sympathetic to the Soviet cause. But the past 18 months have seen a noted spike in information warfare aimed at gulling the Bernie Bros and Occupy-besotted alternative-media set, which saw Clinton as more of a political danger than it did Trump.
Perhaps the starkest case in point is Green Party presidential candidate Jill Stein and her constituency. In December 2015, the Kremlin feted Stein by inviting her to the gala celebrating the 10-year anniversary of Kremlin-funded propaganda network RT. Over a year later, it remains unclear who paid for Stein’s trip to Moscow and her accommodations there. Her campaign ignored multiple questions on this score. We do know, however, that Stein sat at the same table as both Putin and Lt. Gen. Mike Flynn, Trump’s soon-to-be national security adviser. She further spoke at an RT-sponsored panel, using her presence to criticize the U.S.’s “disastrous militarism.” Afterward, straddling Moscow’s Red Square, Stein described the panel as “inspiring,” going on to claim that Putin, whom she painted as a political novice, told her he “agree[d]” with her “on many issues.”
Stein presents herself as a champion of the underclass and the environment, and an opponent of the surveillance state and corporate media, and yet she seemed to take pleasure in her marriage of true minds with a kleptocratic intelligence officer who levels forests and arrests or kills critical journalists and invades foreign countries. Their true commonality, of course, is that both Putin and Stein are dogged opponents of U.S. foreign policy.
Indeed, her pro-Kremlin stance wasn’t limited to merely praising Putin’s amicability. Stein joined the Russian president and Kazakhstani dictator Nursultan Nazarbayev in describing Ukraine’s 2014 EuroMaidan revolution as a “coup,” and claimed, bizarrely, that NATO is currently “fighting… enemies we invent to give the weapons industry a reason to sell more stuff.”
For good measure, she also asserted in September that “Russia used to own Ukraine,” by way of defending its colonization. She even selected a vice-presidential candidate who, when asked whether the downing of Flight MH17—a massacre almost certainly caused by Russian-supplied separatists in eastern Ukraine—was a false flag, responded, “[T]hat’s exactly what has happened.”
https://www.thedailybeast.com/how-putin-played-the-far-left?ref=author
No, America Didn’t Ruin Russian Democracy
The latest whataboutist claim on the far left is that what Putin did in 2016 is no worse than what American consultants did in 1996. That’s nonsense.
For those following the post-Soviet space over the past few years, the historical revisionism on display has been enough to cause serial whiplash. Claims that Crimea has “always been Russian” have competed with the sudden notion that Washington promised a Russian government that NATO would never expand, all swirling amongst beliefs that “Novorossiya”—literally, “New Russia”—is a distinct polity within Ukraine.
Unsurprisingly, this revisionism always spikes to the benefit of Moscow and comes through most clearly via the Kremlin’s stable of propaganda outlets. But for those following the fringe, another piece of historical re-writing has burst to the fore over the past few months, centering on an event over two decades ago.
To hear American conspiracy and far-left outlets tell it, Russia’s recent meddling in the U.S. election is simply blowback from Washington’s apparent role in Moscow’s 1996 election, which saw incumbent Boris Yeltsin knock off the wooly Gennady Zyuganov, a revanchist communist, in a run-off—thanks, supposedly, to American interference.
It doesn’t take long to trace the outline of this narrative re-write. From junk Twitter accounts to any number of conspiratorial “news” sites to, of course, the screeching, bizarro Russia Insider website, the notion that America swayed the 1996 election has begun gurgling through fringe actors and publications.
This revisionism has taken root among those who’ve only recently discovered the post-Soviet space on a map, and among those already predisposed to view Moscow as a sympathetic, victimized state, whose post-2014 moves—in Crimea, in Washington—can be excused as simple reaction to prior American malfeasance. Rather than viewing the Kremlin as a revisionist power in its own right, these hard-left factions would rather pump unrepentant whataboutism for all to see.
The narrative, as it is, appears to stem largely from a 1996 Time magazine cover. Featuring a puffy Yeltsin holding an American flag, the headline is impossible to miss: “YANKS TO THE RESCUE.” Focused on the efforts of a trio of West Coast American consultants—George Gorton, Joseph Shumate, and Richard Dresner, all of whom had been close to former California Gov. Pete Wilson—the piece portrays the three as supposedly essential to Yeltsin’s re-election. In a fit of arrogance, one consultant describes his work as “simple education, Campaigning 101.”
The cover, and the angle, have been too good to pass up for whingeing, far-left sites looking to excuse Russia’s hacking campaign. Truth Out put forth a prime example last month, claiming the consultants “secretly ran Yeltsin’s re-election campaign.” AlterNet recently featured an interview in which the guest—who himself runs a website positing that Obama led an “assault on FDR’s New Deal and LBJ’s War on Poverty”—added that Yeltsin was little more than a “drunken U.S. stooge.” One 2006 article on the topic from an “independent socialist magazine” has also seen a recent resurge, allowing new readers to check out the magazine’s “Reflections of Fidel” section.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/no-america-didnt-ruin-russian-democracy?ref=author
They talk about Newspoll,but Labor has been ahead in 76 essential polls in a row.
Waynes alter ego wrote this:
30th consecutive losing poll THAT’S 30, THIRTY, LOL THIRTY, 30TH, 3 AND AN O, THE BIG THIRTY FUCK THAT’S SO FUNNY WHAT A LOOSER YOU ARE MALCOLM TURNS EVERYTHING TO SHIT.
“I wonder if Newspoll will give a lift to LNP?!??”….
If you call 51/52% ALP (rather than 53/54% ALP) a “lift”, then there may be such “lift”…. But it’s going to be N.30…. inevitably, unless Newspoll wants to be the target of a colossal, country-wide laughter.
Turnbull will turn the news poll results around and will the next election and will it by a landslide and be our a PM till 2022
When does Newspoll come out? When will Tony Abbott ride past Hazelwood powerstation on his tax payer funded look.at.me gimmick?
F’ing get your act together swannies FFS.
If its 53-47 or worse then it makes Fairfax and all the other MSM drongos look like mugs after today.Every channel hoping that Turnbull will get a lift on Sunday night. F…..g stinks!!
OK. With a bit of digging into Newspoll archives I think it is correct to say that Turnbull as LOTO lost 30 Newspolls straight starting on September 21 (2008) and ending at November 29 (2009) after which time Abbott got the job. The TPP numbers for the LNP are:
LNP % (Date)
45 (2008-09-21)
45 (2008-10-12)
46 (2008-10-26)
45 (2008-11-09)
45 (2008-11-23)
41 (2008-12-07)
46 (2009-01-18)
42 (2009-02-08)
42 (2009-02-22)
44 (2009-03-08)
44 (2009-03-22)
42 (2009-04-05)
42 (2009-04-19)
45 (2009-05-03)
44 (2009-05-17)
45 (2009-05-31)
47 (2009-06-14)
44 (2009-06-28)
45 (2009-07-12)
43 (2009-07-26)
43 (2009-08-09)
45 (2009-08-23)
45 (2009-09-06)
45 (2009-09-20)
42 (2009-10-01)
42 (2009-10-11)
41 (2009-10-18)
48 (2009-11-01)
44 (2009-11-15)
43 (2009-11-29)
(Subtract from 100 for ALP % numbers.)
So. Reposting from before…
“30 successive losses” becomes a real grudge. Abbott replaced Turnbull after the 30th loss to assume the position of LOTO. A few years later Turnbull “got his revenge” on Abbott to claim the PM ship no less. And now the third 30th loss approaches. These two men have history. It’s personal. And I would not be surprised if something nasty happens to Turnbull on Monday. (Dutton?) And also, Turnbull will remember his first 30 losses and might be just a tad nervous at the moment.
I knew he would appear.
“Consider one of the flagship magazines of the American left, which, for all its support of gay rights, government transparency, and voting rights as they pertain to U.S. society, has developed a notoriously soft spot for a regime that violently opposes all of the above.
The Nation’s coverage of Russian affairs is a national embarrassment. RT is a website that hosts neo-Nazis as “expert” commentators. Yet that does not stop The Nation from publishing whataboutist articles in defense of the propaganda channel; articles pushing the same argument, with the exact same headlines, as those found in white-nationalist publications.
The Nation’s crop of Russia watchers have lately busied themselves by lending credence to the “autonomy referendums” in eastern Ukraine, thus legitimizing illegal and neo-imperialist land-grabs, or notions that the entire Ukrainian crisis was “instigated by the West’s attempt… to smuggle [Ukraine] into NATO.”
That these views bizarrely mesh with those of Trump and his Breitbart-friendly advisers is perhaps another oddity of an age of ideological psychosis. Stephen Cohen, The Nation’s lead Russia analyst (and husband of the magazine’s editor in chief and publisher Katrina vanden Heuvel), has even been endorsed by David Duke and the wife of white-nationalist Richard Spencer, the intellectual godfather of the pro-Trump “alt-right,” as a rare voice of sanity when it comes to U.S.-Russian relations.
At times, the substance and style of what has been dubbed the “alt-left” are indistinguishable from that of its counterpart on the other end of the political spectrum. And Moscow’s info-warriors appear to appreciate the resemblance, as the American arm of Sputnik exhorted supporters of Bernie Sanders to vote for Trump (as did Trump himself, repeatedly).
In years of researching Kremlin influence-peddling, I’ve discovered first-hand just how eerily similar far-left and far-right Putinists are to each other.”
https://www.thedailybeast.com/how-putin-played-the-far-left?ref=author