Ipsos: 52-48 to Labor

A new poll from Ipsos just about does for Malcolm Turnbull what he can apparently only dream of from Newspoll.

Two days out from the one we’ve all been waiting for, Fairfax has cutely interjected with an Ipsos poll – conducted on this most special of occasions from Tuesday to Thursday for publication on Friday night, and not from Thursday to Saturday for publication on Sunday night as standard. The sample is 1166, somewhat lower than the usual 1400 from Ipsos.

The headline two-party result of 52-48 to Labor, as determined using 2016 election preference flows, is only slightly above the Coalition’s usual form – but Malcolm Turnbull is given a very useful straw to grasp with a tied result using respondent-allocated preferences. This is something the Coalition hasn’t achieved on either kind of two-party measure in any poll since September 2016, except for the quirky and apparently short-lived YouGov series for Fifty Acres. The previous Ipsos poll in early December had Labor leading 53-47 on previous election preferences and 52-48 on respondent allocation. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up two to 36%, Labor is up a point to 34%, and the Greens are down a point to 12% (high results for the Greens being a consistent features of Ipsos polls).

The good news for Malcolm Turnbull doesn’t end there: the poll finds only 28% in favour of the Liberals removing him as leader, compared with 62% who think he should remain, and his approval rating bounces five points to 47%, with disapproval down six to 43%. This is the first time since April last year that Turnbull has recorded net favourable personal ratings – the previous instance being another Ipsos poll, which is no coincidence, since the series consistently records high approval and low undecided ratings for both leaders. Bill Shorten is steady on 38% approval and up one on disapproval to 53%. The poll also finds 49% support for company tax cuts, with the number opposed not provided. This is dramatically more favourable than ReachTEL’s finding of 29% in favour and 56% opposed, although recent Essential Research polls have had slight net favourable results.

We have also had Roy Morgan publish results of its face-to-face polling for the second fortnight a row, which the pollster has hitherto been reserving for its massively expensive subscriber service since the 2016 election campaign. I’m not sure if this portends a regular return to publication, or if it will be appearing on an ad hoc basis, as the release a fortnight ago seemed to suggest. Whatever it is, the result is likewise on the high side for the Coalition, with Labor holding a steady 51-49 lead on two-party preferred. This is in contrast to the form of the Morgan face-to-face series of old, which was notorious for its skew to Labor.

However, as with Ipsos, it’s respondent allocation that’s making the difference – if previous election preferences were applied, Labor’s lead would be up from 51-49 to 53-47. The primary votes are Coalition 38.5%, down from 40% a fortnight ago; Labor 37.5%, up from 35%; Greens 11%, down from 12%; and One Nation on an unusually weak 3%, down from 3.5%. The Morgan release has two-party breakdowns by state and income category. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a combined sample of 1477.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

909 comments on “Ipsos: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 5 of 19
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  1. According to the AFR gossip column, Peever wasn’t even a heavy at BHP. He had almost nobody reporting to him.

  2. He’s not referring to cheesemakers as such but using them as an allegory for all dairy workers (or something like that)

  3. Please don’t remind me of my former profession. I have seen sights that would turn the stomach of very strong men

  4. Confessions @ #54 Saturday, April 7th, 2018 – 9:18 am

    Dave:

    I wonder if these sanctions will last longer than the blink of an eye. When the US expelled the diplomats after the UK chemical attack most of them were back within a few days.

    Has anyone else heard of this?
    They had 7 days to leave IIRC so they would hardly have left.

  5. Oakeshott Country @ #2096 Saturday, April 7th, 2018 – 4:58 pm

    Please don’t remind me of my former profession. I have seen sights that would turn the stomach of very strong men

    Apologies OC. I also worked in SHCs.
    I vaguely remember some research from 70’s demonstrating that elephant smegma could cause cervical cancer in mice. Turned out to be a clue to the oncogenesis of papillomavirus.

  6. My understanding is that the numbers of diplomats in an embassy is set by international convention. Russia is entitled to replace the expelees by people who would be vetted by the host state but would also likely to be operatives of whatever the KGB is now called. This has been my assumption but may be wrong

  7. Anyone in Sydney going to this auction of Russell Crowe personal items, titled The Art of Divorce?

    A selection of major works from the private collection of Russell Crowe will be auctioned by Sotheby’s Australia on 7 April 2018. A date of particular significance as both the actor’s birthday and wedding anniversary.

    The sale represents the dispersal of a highly personal collection that was assembled by Crowe over many years, including those shared with his former wife, Danielle Spencer.

    The Russell Crowe Collection comprises important paintings by some of Australia’s most significant historic, modern and contemporary artists, furniture, movie memorabilia, musical instruments, watches and sporting memorabilia.

    https://www.sothebysaustralia.com.au/catalogue/AU0822

    Seems rather bitter to me, but each to their own. I wonder why he’s auctioning off this stuff. Isn’t he like a gazillionaire?

  8. You would have to ask what sick mind included elephant smegma and mice in the same sentence, let alone a research proposal

  9. I had a friend who ran an art gallery near his country estate outside Coffs Harbour. Rusty entering the gallery was like Christmas for her as she got rid of all her old tat at retail price. He even tried to buy her cats because they were called Roy and H.G.
    He is a guy with too much money. I understand he has kept all his Rabbitoh crap

  10. OC:

    He is broadcasting the entire auction live on his facebook page from 6pm Sydney time, which struck me as a very public eff-u to his ex wife – esp with the title of the auction. I had no idea their separation and divorce was so acrimonious!

  11. Fess
    You should look up the South Park episode “Russel Crowe: Fightin’ around the world”
    I think it safe to say that he has a low emotional quotient and very quick to take offence and react inappropriately

  12. Shanners is out from the paywall…

    Even as Newspoll is in the field canvassing voters in what could be the Coalition’s 30th losing survey in a row — Malcolm Turnbull’s self-imposed metric to remove a sitting prime minister — senior Liberals concede the losing streak will ­continue.

    Indeed, they say there is likely to be a 31st, a 32nd and probably onwards to a 35th and 36th loss because there is little the government can do to stir a disconnected, disenchanted and uninterested voting public into seriously considering how they will vote at the next election.

    The Coalition has failed to translate its good economic message into a political positive or break the cycle of disappointment with politics in the face of Bill Shorten’s determined populism and the Prime Minister’s tin political ear.

    But despite Turnbull foolishly having nominated 30 Newspoll defeats as part justification for removing an elected Liberal prime minister in his first term, there is a broad cabinet view that the PM will not face any concerted, organised or serious attempt to unseat him after that milestone — the 30th losing Newspoll — appears on Monday in The Australian.

  13. Both Crowe and Spenser have stuff in the auction – I suspect they needed to liquidate assets to be able to share them equally … doubtful either would ‘need’ the funds.

  14. 40m
    In October, 2017, Juli Briskman was fired after giving Donald Trump’s motorcade the middle finger. Here, she writes why she is suing.

    Another lawsuit.

    Peter van Onselen
    @vanOnselenP
    ·
    6h
    So Tony Abbott’s pollie pedal (where the MPs involved claim taxpayer funded travel allowances) just happens to be riding through the La Trobe Valley – coal mining country – on the day the 30th Newspoll hits. You can only laugh at such a calculating use of a charity initiative…

  15. You got loaugh at these Lib-leaning journalists who claim Shorten personifies ‘populism’ when the major policy releases are seen as policy ideas that will alienate large segments of the population. (Neg gearing/cap gains/imputation).

    Sigh.

    Journalists (and I use that word for want of a better description) are so damn lazy they fall into line with the Lib party sloganeering. Just like the ridiculous same/same meme … ’Shorten is a populist’ is a statement that lacks even a hint of substance when you think about actual policy direction.

  16. The 30th poll will be interesting. The publicity & significance may well trigger party allegiances in those polled that will, in turn, reveal the degree of tightening we can expect come the election.

  17. Both Crowe and Spenser have stuff in the auction

    Not Spencer. There may be items that were accumulated while the two were married, but in announcing the auction the MC thanked only Crowe and his team. No mention of Spencer.

  18. I saw a news report last night where Spenser was putting jewellery on a dummy which was being included in the auction, Fess.

  19. Jen:

    Okey dokes. No mention of her at all at the auction.

    Perhaps it doesn’t gel with the Art of Divorce martyr stuff Crowe has going on.

  20. Re Shorten is a populist, good pick up.

    While reading the various commentary today it appears if Labor win the next election it will be because of the polices and the respect due Labor for the risky approach. Voters respect leadership, they would like Turnbull to be one, but now know it won’t happen. That respect is more important than a beauty parade like PPM.

  21. ”Local demographics and customer research feedback allows us to provide a more tailored experience for commuters at each station, reflecting the site-specific retail need with usages accommodating their respective catchments,” he said

    Speaketh the gobbeldygooker.

  22. Put me down as surprised that Rusell Crowe fighting around the world on South Park would be brought up here.

  23. Wow, I just saw this Coorey article in the AFR and haven’t seen it mentioned here

    The Coalition has closed the gap on Labor – and possibly drawn even – in a new poll which also finds a solid majority of voters opposes any move to depose Malcolm Turnbull as Liberal leader.

    The latest Fairfax-Ipsos poll shows that while Labor leads the Coalition on a two-party-preferred basis by 52 per cent to 48 per cent based on how preferences flowed at the last election, the parties are tied at 50 per cent each when those polled were asked how they would allocate their preferences now.

    http://www.afr.com/news/politics/fairfaxipsos-poll-malcolm-turnbull-is-back-in-the-game-20180405-h0yesx
    Fairfax-Ipsos poll: Malcolm Turnbull is back in the game

    Impressive, Coorey leaves Hartcher and Murphy in the dust.
    It goes way past the narrowing Shannas from 2007. Good times.

  24. I have a house full of stuff, much of accumulated under the previous management.

    I would like to get rid of it but somehow I don’t think junk I own is collectable.

    Unlike Crowe I think I will need to hire a skip …

  25. John R™ @ #232 Saturday, April 7th, 2018 – 6:22 pm

    Re Shorten is a populist, good pick up.

    While reading the various commentary today it appears if Labor win the next election it will be because of the polices and the respect due Labor for the risky approach. Voters respect leadership, they would like Turnbull to be one, but now know it won’t happen. That respect is more important than a beauty parade like PPM.

    And I think any election strategy based on more feathers for the baby boomers beds will be easily debunked as simply unaffordable more yesterday’s waste by yesterday’s men as opposed to a youthful forward thinking environmentally responsible inequality addressing opposition, which we happily have.

  26. JR:

    William’s post above discusses the different 2PP results of last election allocated vs respondent allocated.

    Isn’t Coorey just reporting it how it is?

  27. Rossmcg @ #235 Saturday, April 7th, 2018 – 4:29 pm

    I have a house full of stuff, much of accumulated under the previous management.

    I would like to get rid of it but somehow I don’t think junk I own is collectable.

    Unlike Crowe I think I will need to hire a skip …

    I turned off the auction because, really. The crap people stump money up for just cannot be believed. A purple suit he wore in some movie in the 90s fetched into the thousands. What does one do with a purple suit other than donate it to St Vinnies?

  28. Barney in Go Dau says:
    Saturday, April 7, 2018 at 1:55 pm
    Falling doesn’t hurt!

    It’s what stops the fall that causes the pain!!!

    You can say that again!

    Two weeks ago I let the dog out, fit as a fiddle – me , that is, – a nano-sec0nd later, pole-driven into the floor, on my chest.

    Multiple cracked ribs surely are the most debilitating thang. But today I can report that I’m able to sneeze without too much discomfort.

    The culprit? An inoffensive computer cable.

    Before I was half-winded, I remember thinking,”don’t fall,don’t fall”

    Oh, fuck it hurt.

  29. kezza2 @ #244 Saturday, April 7th, 2018 – 6:45 pm

    Barney in Go Dau says:
    Saturday, April 7, 2018 at 1:55 pm
    Falling doesn’t hurt!

    It’s what stops the fall that causes the pain!!!

    You can say that again!

    Two weeks ago I let the dog out, fit as a fiddle – me , that is, – a nano-sec0nd later, pole-driven into the floor, on my chest.

    Multiple cracked ribs surely are the most debilitating thang. But today I can report that I’m able to sneeze without too much discomfort.

    The culprit? An inoffensive computer cable.

    Before I was half-winded, I remember thinking,”don’t fall,don’t fall”

    Oh, fuck it hurt.

    And waking up every time you move during the night, like every ten minutes.

  30. kezza2 @ #244 Saturday, April 7th, 2018 – 6:45 pm

    Barney in Go Dau says:
    Saturday, April 7, 2018 at 1:55 pm
    Falling doesn’t hurt!

    It’s what stops the fall that causes the pain!!!

    You can say that again!

    Two weeks ago I let the dog out, fit as a fiddle – me , that is, – a nano-sec0nd later, pole-driven into the floor, on my chest.

    Multiple cracked ribs surely are the most debilitating thang. But today I can report that I’m able to sneeze without too much discomfort.

    The culprit? An inoffensive computer cable.

    Before I was half-winded, I remember thinking,”don’t fall,don’t fall”

    Oh, fuck it hurt.

    The solution is obvious.

    Immediately contact your local Federal MP.

    Repeal the Law of Gravity.

    No more sneezing for you either.

    Seriously – we hope for quick and a pain free recovery for you. 😍😍

    Ctl A – Ctl C

  31. Itza
    I was running flat out, futiley trying to stay upright.

    I now know what a dead cat bounce is.

    I can’t even begin to tell you about the nights, except that, in the end, a ‘heated wheat-bag” helped immensely.

  32. China will fight at any cost:

    “China has made full preparations and will take all possible counteractions if the United States announces a new #tariff list on Chinese imports to the US worth $100 billion, a Ministry of Commerce spokesman said. #trade
    https://bit.ly/2EoIZaR

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