Two days out from the one we’ve all been waiting for, Fairfax has cutely interjected with an Ipsos poll – conducted on this most special of occasions from Tuesday to Thursday for publication on Friday night, and not from Thursday to Saturday for publication on Sunday night as standard. The sample is 1166, somewhat lower than the usual 1400 from Ipsos.
The headline two-party result of 52-48 to Labor, as determined using 2016 election preference flows, is only slightly above the Coalition’s usual form – but Malcolm Turnbull is given a very useful straw to grasp with a tied result using respondent-allocated preferences. This is something the Coalition hasn’t achieved on either kind of two-party measure in any poll since September 2016, except for the quirky and apparently short-lived YouGov series for Fifty Acres. The previous Ipsos poll in early December had Labor leading 53-47 on previous election preferences and 52-48 on respondent allocation. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up two to 36%, Labor is up a point to 34%, and the Greens are down a point to 12% (high results for the Greens being a consistent features of Ipsos polls).
The good news for Malcolm Turnbull doesn’t end there: the poll finds only 28% in favour of the Liberals removing him as leader, compared with 62% who think he should remain, and his approval rating bounces five points to 47%, with disapproval down six to 43%. This is the first time since April last year that Turnbull has recorded net favourable personal ratings – the previous instance being another Ipsos poll, which is no coincidence, since the series consistently records high approval and low undecided ratings for both leaders. Bill Shorten is steady on 38% approval and up one on disapproval to 53%. The poll also finds 49% support for company tax cuts, with the number opposed not provided. This is dramatically more favourable than ReachTEL’s finding of 29% in favour and 56% opposed, although recent Essential Research polls have had slight net favourable results.
We have also had Roy Morgan publish results of its face-to-face polling for the second fortnight a row, which the pollster has hitherto been reserving for its massively expensive subscriber service since the 2016 election campaign. I’m not sure if this portends a regular return to publication, or if it will be appearing on an ad hoc basis, as the release a fortnight ago seemed to suggest. Whatever it is, the result is likewise on the high side for the Coalition, with Labor holding a steady 51-49 lead on two-party preferred. This is in contrast to the form of the Morgan face-to-face series of old, which was notorious for its skew to Labor.
However, as with Ipsos, it’s respondent allocation that’s making the difference – if previous election preferences were applied, Labor’s lead would be up from 51-49 to 53-47. The primary votes are Coalition 38.5%, down from 40% a fortnight ago; Labor 37.5%, up from 35%; Greens 11%, down from 12%; and One Nation on an unusually weak 3%, down from 3.5%. The Morgan release has two-party breakdowns by state and income category. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a combined sample of 1477.
Falling doesn’t hurt!
It’s what stops the fall that causes the pain!!! 🙂
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-04-07/analysis-malcolm-turnbull-awaits-30th-newspoll-loss/9626492
The NEG is of no worth. It was designed to let coal through. It is a compromise with climate deniers who have chosen to act as shills for the coal industry.
An energy guarantee? What crap! Any passably competent Government should ensure the lights stay on or be turfed out on their collective arse and replaced by someone who will. The issue here is that we need to transition away from coal and oil in order to meet our international commitments, accepted by this Government, to meet our share of addressing climate change.
Why did we make that commitments? To ensure that our descendent, likely starting with the grandchildren of those now graduating, certainly generations after them, will have a liveable world in which they can survive and thrive. If, as many in this Government believe against all the science, there was no problem with the climate, we might be building new coal-fired power stations and looking at ways to burn coal more efficiently, but we would still eventually run up against the limitations of a finite resource base. One way or another, the future is renewable.
And what if there’s a danger of the lights going out? Put that down to 20 years of stuffing around and thumb-twiddling by a ramshackle, reactionary Coalition determined to defend their Big Business mates, especially Big Mining mates, at all costs.
[end rant]
Re 52-48 vs 53-47: just margin of error stuff.
Barney in Go Dau @ #151 Saturday, April 7th, 2018 – 1:55 pm
I’m sure we all hope for Mal’s sake that nothing does! 🙂
The MSM always look for a silver lining in poll numbers for Turnbull.It must be so obvious to the public the biased nature of newspapers nowadays.
What other ‘unofficial policies’ are being used to coerce people? Who approved them? Should not the whole of government take responsibility for these?
lizzie @ #156 Saturday, April 7th, 2018 – 11:18 am
It makes up part the torture claims against the Government.
What’s more important to you, family or a new life?
You can have one or the other but not both!
There is no reason why such a decision is mutually exclusive except we say so.
Bastards!!!! 🙁
So, so Collingwood!
Tax avoidance in this country should now be a national sport.
“Family values” apparently only apply to nice, respectable white people.
From the other side:
An update from James Sutherland
Dear Australian Cricket Fans,
I wish to update you on the actions Cricket Australia is continuing to take in response to the recent events in Cape Town. We recognise the concerns felt by all of you regarding this situation, so I wanted to share these updates with you directly.
Sanctions
As officially announced yesterday, Steve Smith, Cameron Bancroft and David Warner have accepted the charges and sanctions, so no hearings will be required.
These are significant penalties for professional cricketers, and they were not imposed lightly.
We know the players will return to playing the game they love, and in doing so, we are hopeful they will rebuild their careers and regain the trust of you, our fans.
Independent Review
Last week we flagged an independent review to examine the wider context of this event as an important step towards restoring pride in Australian cricket.
The review will examine if any cultural, organisational and/or governance issues should be addressed within Cricket Australia, not exclusive to the Australian men’s teams.
We are currently seeking advice from a wide range of qualified individuals, firms, sporting and other organisations who may have conducted similar reviews, or have relevant experience with these sorts of issues.
We want the review to be completed as quickly as possible, but we are also committed to getting it right. We will take whatever time is necessary to ensure we fully understand the expertise required to conduct such a review, and the procedures it should follow. I’ll share the details with you once we have worked carefully through this process.
We are strongly committed to a culture of inclusivity, supportiveness, accountability, respect, integrity and doing what’s best for cricket, and you, the fans.
Consideration of a player charter
In addition to the independent review, Cricket Australia will initiate a separate player (and former player) driven process to consider a “charter” that sets out standards of behaviour and expectations of Australian men’s teams.
The outcomes from this process will form reference points for the independent review.
Further details will be announced shortly and we will keep you updated on this process as it progresses.
Our focus is on doing all we can to prevent such events from ever happening again, and rebuilding the trust of the cricket community.
I would like to take the opportunity once again to express our gratitude to the Australian public for all the feedback we have received. We have read all your passionate responses and recognise your concerns. Unfortunately, we cannot respond to all your submissions, but I can assure you we will continue to do everything possible to restore your faith in the game and address your feedback.
Best regards
James
James Sutherland
Chief Executive Officer – Cricket Australia
I’ve never considered ‘Pollie Pedal’ a ‘charity initiative’.
Apart from the whole travel entitlements which I would strongly suspect Abbott and others claim the last drop out of – and (I would guess without actually knowing) would probably swamp any actual donations to charity – it’s all self promotion for the pollies involved. It’s the basis for their jobs to get their mugs out there – it’s at the same level as doing a meet-and-greet at a shopping centre.
Charity it is not.
I’m shocked to hear that there isn’t already such a thing in place!
Cricket Australia.
Just a group of lazy nobodies lying in a hammock living off the sport and doing nothing.
Jackol @ #163 Saturday, April 7th, 2018 – 11:50 am
How many Pollies from other Parties are involved?
Surprise Surprise
Welfare cheats to be targeted in upcoming Australian federal budget
steve davis @ #165 Saturday, April 7th, 2018 – 11:56 am
Yep, lazy is the word for it.
A proactive organisation would monitor the team and take proactive steps to address any issues.
This is a typical knee jerk reaction of a lazy organisation trying to protect the furniture.
steve davis @ #167 Saturday, April 7th, 2018 – 12:01 pm
Are there any left?
How much are they planning to spend to uncover the few that remain?
Confessions
I am pretty sure there is some sort of charter for cricketers. dates back to days of Steve Waugh, great observer of the spirit of cricket he was!
I guess it is in need of an update.
Barney
Its just the same old tired rhetoric from the Coalition.You can read them like a book.
Considering the alternatives in the Liberal Party; the more Turnbulls leadership is threatened the better he will poll.
England had the same types in their selectors board.Botham famously called them “Gin swilling dodderers”.
SK
That seems to be the order of the day.I think Turnbull still is the most popular person in the Liberal party with the public.If they change leaders their defeat will only be bigger.
Speaking of Pollie Pedals, Tony Abbott has a history of using this and other stunts to line his own pockets with dodgy ‘Parliamentary Business’ claims.
CA execs are like any other. The key abilities that see one rise to the top are; to appear to be extremely busy, bring in short term cash, avoid responsibility when it turns to shit.
sd
**That seems to be the order of the day.**
Oh, did others think of that too? Surely I am unique in my perceptiveness.
Electronic signs in cities can also be hacked nowadays.
https://breakingnewsheadlines.net/hackers-target-electronic-billboards-in-australian-city-to-display-porn-on-them/
Was it when he was minister for health, and of his sponsors on the ride (emblazoned prominently on his chest) was a pharmaceutical company?
From a quick google search
https://theconversation.com/amgen-and-abbott-whos-that-on-the-pms-cycling-kit-18142
You may have noticed our Prime Minister Tony Abbott riding around in cycling kit with the Amgen logo across his chest, back and legs. Amgen is the principal sponsor of an Australian fundraising cycling event called Pollie Pedal, which, not surprisingly, features politicians cycling to raise money for various charities (this year, Carers Australia). So what, exactly, is Amgen?
SK
It does seem a plausible explanation for a bounce towards Turnbull.
Personally I cant wait for all this 30th Newspoll leadershit to be done and dusted so we can move on with focusing on Turnbulls core source of ineptitude. Himself.
**It does seem a plausible explanation for a bounce towards Turnbull.**
Has Rex commented yet?
Rex is probably waiting for a bounce to Turnbull on Sunday night so he can have another go at Shorten.
“But remember, it is never about you or I, Prime Minister, it is about the future of our nation,and the well being of the Australian people”…
I particularly like the bit of the 2014 budget reply, very near to the end, where the bloke who will lead this country for a decade or more, shoves his fist through the base of Joe Hockey’s, disgustingly obese rib cage, reaches up to his wizened, blackened heart, and crushes the last vestiges of life from it.
The realisation, and resignation at being responsible for such a monumental fuck up, is undeniably painted on Hockey’s face at 29 minutes into the video.
He knows he has finished himself, Tony Abbott is too ignorant to understand that he has destroyed the Liberal party as a political force in this country.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TrxAlX6aOy8
Peace be to all.
BiGD – casual googling is not immediately giving me the answer of who takes part Federally.
I did get this from the Guardian in 2014:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/jul/02/mps-claim-almost-10000-in-travel-expenses-for-pollie-pedal-fundraiser
Which only mentions Libs and Nats (although that article is about claiming travel expenses, which apparently only Libs and Nats did)
As to whether Labor or Greens MPs regularly (or ever) take part … who knows.
I certainly don’t want to bash raising money for actual charities, and if worthy causes end up getting money as a result of politicians doing their politician thing and raising their profile … well it’s still a good thing regardless of the self-interest of the pollies.
But Pollie Pedal itself ain’t charity (particularly with the travel expenses thrown in). Even Abbott doesn’t have the gall to claim that it’s charity … rather it’s “community engagement”:
I will take back my comment that travel expenses swamped the money given … that 2014 article indicates $10000 in travel expenses, but a total of $750000 raised (although the expense total is just from some of the Federal L/NP participants, and there are different events around the country so it’s not an apples/apples comparison).
rossmcg:
I dunno. Sutherland’s statement says they will initiate a process to consider a player charter which suggests to me that they don’t currently have one. Perhaps the SWaugh one expired and was never replaced?
Our great LNP are on the way back to win the next election and Turnbull our best PM since JH
An election flyer from 1949. HT Troy Bramston.
“Medicare and free education for all”.
“Labor has always held to these precepts”.
“We will never support the conscious development of an underclass in this country”.
“This is a budget that would seek to demolish the pillars of Australian society”.
“This budget is designed to undermine the essential compact, of Australian society”
“And they are the people I am speaking to tonight, the government forgot you in its budget, and it forgot what made this country great, it forgot a fair go, it forgot opportunity, and it tears at the fabric of our country”.
…
This is the person that will be in charge of Rex Douglas’s Australia for a decade.
We will aspire to greatness.
BRING IT ON…
**Our great LNP are on the way back to win the next election and Turnbull our best PM since JH**
Blessed are the meek who shall inherit the earth. Amen.
And the cheesemakers.
sprocket:
I think it’s evident today’s Liberal party is so far removed from the party of Menzies it isn’t funny.
Spirit of Cricket
Press report 2003
http://www.espncricinfo.com/ci/content/story/132650.html
so long ago I guess they forgot. certainly recent behavior suggests that.
Cheers Jackol,
Yeah, I found their website where they say they’ve raised nearly $6 million over 21 years.
As to who’s riding it’s difficult to know.
To donate to someone you need to basically already know they are riding.
Strange!! You’d think they’d make it as easy as possible to donate!
What are they hiding?
http://www.polliepedal.org.au/
Simon Katich @ #190 Saturday, April 7th, 2018 – 1:16 pm
What’s so bloody special about the cheesemakers? 🙂
rossmcg:
Good find!
I wonder whatever happened to it after a press release was issued to the media.
Blessed are the cheese makers
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-xLUEMj6cwA
It is CA and its subgroups that need the charter. Something about commitment to the wellbeing of those who play and watch the game, responsibilities and transparency etc.
In fact, scrap the lot and start again with a cooperative owned by all players at all levels and people who support the game within the clubs and those who pay to go to games.
Ha! Imagine that. It would be easier to overthrow capitalism.
Bernard Keane expressed similar sentiments yesterday about twitter. Perhaps twitter is becoming even more polarised than it already was, if that is possible.
From now on I think we should all call Wayne – Loretta.
SK
There have been a some press reports this week about the sneering email CA boss Peever sent to CBS in the US after the Channel 10 bid for the cricket rights didn’t match Peever’s expectations.
Peever used to be a heavy at Rio so I guess he is used to getting his own way. But the cricket world was turned upside down last week and there will be a few CA officials who will be having to rethink their approach.