Ipsos: 52-48 to Labor

A new poll from Ipsos just about does for Malcolm Turnbull what he can apparently only dream of from Newspoll.

Two days out from the one we’ve all been waiting for, Fairfax has cutely interjected with an Ipsos poll – conducted on this most special of occasions from Tuesday to Thursday for publication on Friday night, and not from Thursday to Saturday for publication on Sunday night as standard. The sample is 1166, somewhat lower than the usual 1400 from Ipsos.

The headline two-party result of 52-48 to Labor, as determined using 2016 election preference flows, is only slightly above the Coalition’s usual form – but Malcolm Turnbull is given a very useful straw to grasp with a tied result using respondent-allocated preferences. This is something the Coalition hasn’t achieved on either kind of two-party measure in any poll since September 2016, except for the quirky and apparently short-lived YouGov series for Fifty Acres. The previous Ipsos poll in early December had Labor leading 53-47 on previous election preferences and 52-48 on respondent allocation. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up two to 36%, Labor is up a point to 34%, and the Greens are down a point to 12% (high results for the Greens being a consistent features of Ipsos polls).

The good news for Malcolm Turnbull doesn’t end there: the poll finds only 28% in favour of the Liberals removing him as leader, compared with 62% who think he should remain, and his approval rating bounces five points to 47%, with disapproval down six to 43%. This is the first time since April last year that Turnbull has recorded net favourable personal ratings – the previous instance being another Ipsos poll, which is no coincidence, since the series consistently records high approval and low undecided ratings for both leaders. Bill Shorten is steady on 38% approval and up one on disapproval to 53%. The poll also finds 49% support for company tax cuts, with the number opposed not provided. This is dramatically more favourable than ReachTEL’s finding of 29% in favour and 56% opposed, although recent Essential Research polls have had slight net favourable results.

We have also had Roy Morgan publish results of its face-to-face polling for the second fortnight a row, which the pollster has hitherto been reserving for its massively expensive subscriber service since the 2016 election campaign. I’m not sure if this portends a regular return to publication, or if it will be appearing on an ad hoc basis, as the release a fortnight ago seemed to suggest. Whatever it is, the result is likewise on the high side for the Coalition, with Labor holding a steady 51-49 lead on two-party preferred. This is in contrast to the form of the Morgan face-to-face series of old, which was notorious for its skew to Labor.

However, as with Ipsos, it’s respondent allocation that’s making the difference – if previous election preferences were applied, Labor’s lead would be up from 51-49 to 53-47. The primary votes are Coalition 38.5%, down from 40% a fortnight ago; Labor 37.5%, up from 35%; Greens 11%, down from 12%; and One Nation on an unusually weak 3%, down from 3.5%. The Morgan release has two-party breakdowns by state and income category. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a combined sample of 1477.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

909 comments on “Ipsos: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 3 of 19
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  1. Sacred building???

    A half-billion-dollar redevelopment of the Australian War Memorial (AWM) will be considered by the Turnbull Government, and the monument’s director has insisted the country owes it to the memory of dead diggers to build it.

    Key points:
    •Plans include an underground exhibition hall for military aircraft, and “quiet reflection” area
    •Memorial director would not disclose cost, but government sources estimate up to $500m
    •Expansion would take up to a decade to complete if approved

    Draft architectural plans for the ambitious project include a complete redevelopment of the memorial’s lower ground floor and a new cavernous, underground exhibition hall to house recently acquired military items such as helicopters and jet fighters.

    The complex and expensive expansion could take almost a decade to complete if approved.
    Australian War Memorial director Brendan Nelson said the “national project of significance” would ensure the heritage and integrity of the sacred 76-year-old Canberra building is preserved.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-04-07/underground-war-memorial-expansion-tipped-to-top-500-million/9627910

  3. The only good thing about the Katharine Murphy article today is the comments section. Mostly she attempts to isolate Turnbull from the horror that is his government. She also claims the government is centre-right and Newspoll 30 is no big deal. The comments point out, however, that there is nothing centre about Turnbull’s government (it is purely right-wing) and NP30 is a big deal because Turnbull made it so.

  4. steve davis says:
    Saturday, April 7, 2018 at 10:27 am
    Even if Turnbull gets a positive Newspoll ,I dont think it will last.

    That I agree with. But I don’t want to concede him ANY positive polls, especially this one.

  5. The big banks are tracking and recording in minute detail every card transaction you make, and at least two of the big four – Westpac and the Commonwealth Bank – are making extra money selling that information to third parties.

    Inquiries by The New Daily found that Westpac is selling anonymous, aggregated information about customers’ spending habits to other businesses through a data sharing platform called ‘Data Republic’, which it jointly owns with NAB, ANZ and Qantas.

    Commonwealth Bank, meanwhile, is selling anonymous, aggregated information about transactions to its business banking clients.

    NAB informed The New Daily that while it does not sell such information at the moment, it is considering doing so in the future. ANZ said it did not sell such information.

    Qantas, however, confirmed it sells what it called “de-identified” data to third parties over the Data Republic platform.

    There is nothing illegal about any of this, and both Westpac and CBA stressed they were not sharing any personal information about their customers, and that any information shared was done so securely.

    Still, this discreet practice is likely to be of interest to customers of Australia’s two biggest banks, especially in the light of the ongoing scandal embroiling tech giant Facebook and data firm Cambridge Analytica.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/finance-news/2018/04/06/big-banks-sell-data-customer-spending-habits/

  6. NRDC

    ‏Verified account @NRDC
    52s52 seconds ago

    “The Trump administration’s decision will take America backward by jeopardizing successful safeguards that are working to clean our air, save drivers money at the pump, and drive technological innovation that creates jobs.” – @NRDC’s Luke Tonachel

    Same Same as the Fibs and the Tories.

  7. I dont think the papers jumping on any positive news for Turnbull does him any good.The papers are just seen as more and more biased everytime which leads to more and more rejection of him and his party.

  12. Zoidlord
    Its nothing to do with the Libs what happens to Liddell.If AGL does not want to sell it doesnt have to.Simple.They just need to tell Malcolm to piss off and mind his own business.I didnt realise the Libs are now the new communist party.

  13. I guess the boost in the polls means that the likes of Dutton and Abbott will give Turnbull flowers hearts and kisses. Lol!

  14. Please tell me the half a billion War Memorial rebuild is a joke. On top of 200 million on a Western Front Museum, and half a billion on the ANZAC centenary….there was also designs for a WW1 and WW2 memorial on Lake Burley Griffin…That’s more than 1.3 billion on war celebration, infinitely more than any other nation spends.
    This is just crazy militarism. Sydney our premier city doesn’t even hae a decent Art Gallery….

  16. Tories go further right:
    https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2018/04/dhs-defends-media-monitoring-database-calls-critics-conspiracy-theorists/

    UK taking new excuses for the nerve agent:
    https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2018/04/british-intelligence-nerve-agent-used-on-spy-came-from-russian-military-lab/

    FCC has been turned into a political circus:
    https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2018/04/fcc-wont-reveal-the-secrets-behind-ajit-pais-anti-net-neutrality-dance-video/

  17. Irrespective of latest two polls (Morgan+IPSOS), i dont see any hope of LNP retaining government in its own right.

    There is an extra seat, so now 152, take the speaker out and there has to be a majority or tied on the floor so the speaker can cast the tiebreaker, so the government needs 77 (assuming they cant/wont give speaker away)

    Assume 5 independent/green again, and Labor need 71 seats to spoil the LNP party, they currently have 69, so they need 2 more. They notionally have two more with the new seats of Fraser and Bean, and another two with Cox (Corangamite) and Dunkly taking ALP to 73 notionally. Leaving LNP with 74.

    Complications include the SA redistribution on Monday changing things again, and perhaps there might only be 4 independents if Sharkey doesnt hold onto to her seat due to NXT implosion.

    Another way to look at it, is to count 77 up on bludgertrack probably LNP seats and LNP need to win upto and including Adelaide, which is an estimated probability of 1% or current projection of 44.8% 2PP.

    Sure things can change, and Turnbull is getting a nice sympathy vote right now (because people are terrified of the alternative), but voters wont think like that when an election is close. e.g. lets see a PPM between Shorten and Dutton

    Of course that all ignores policy, which will also become more of an influence on election day, and i think its pretty well accepted ALP are leading LNP with popular policies.

  19. Close Manus & Nauru @I_stand_for
    @lenoretaylor Error in this article: Julian Burnside did not photoshop Peter Dutton photo. He retweeted my tweet which said you’re dead to me in response to Duttons crazy lefties being dead to him comment – I used an old photo that has been circulating on social media for years.

  20. Confessions says: Saturday, April 7, 2018 at 9:53 am

    phoenixRed:

    Real Time is back today!!

    *******************************************

    THANKS Confessions !!! …… made my Saturday seem much brighter !

  21. If Newspoll was miraculously 50/50 or better for the LNP – the entire nation would laugh and ask how much money Turnbull parted with to achieve that result.

    He bought his position within the party. People will assume he bought the poll.

  22. Ex-federal prosecutor smacks down Trump’s new lawyer with an epic comparison to a foot doctor

    Amid news that President Donald Trump has begun informally preparing for a face-to-face meeting with special counsel Robert Mueller, legal experts warned that his one-man legal team in the Russia investigation may not be sufficient to protect him from perjuring himself.

    “‘Mueller hasn’t hesitated to [charge] people for lying on some pretty tangential stuff,’” Wisenberg’s quote, read by Burnett, said. “How big of a concern should that be, perjury charges be, for the president?”

    “The president should be very concerned about being charged with false statement,” former federal prosecutor Renato Mariotti said

    Sekulow, the ex-prosecutor noted, “is totally out of his element” defending a client under investigation by a government-appointed special counsel.

    “Having Jay Sekulow handle this is like having a podiatrist do your heart surgery,” Mariotti quipped.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/04/ex-federal-prosecutor-smacks-trumps-new-lawyer-epic-comparison-foot-doctor/

  24. “And former Prime Minister John Howard told ABC’s 7.30 that evening: “My exultation to all Liberals is to just remember that you are carrying the hopes and aspirations of millions of supporters around the country and they want you to work together.”

    I didn’t see (couldn’t bring myself to witness, to be more accurate) the above show.

    Isn’t it exhortation (not exultation)? Has he become a gibberer?

  25. Unlike Murphy, Probyn is more scathing of Trumble, the first par.
    Such is Malcolm Turnbull’s magnificent, monolithic self-confidence he would never, ever have entertained matching Tony Abbott’s sorry record of 30 consecutive negative Newspolls.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-04-07/analysis-malcolm-turnbull-awaits-30th-newspoll-loss/9626492

    Some great quotes
    No leader is perfect and menace is often afoot in politics. But, an old-timer Liberal opined, political judgment aids the escape as much as it helps avoiding trouble in the first place.

    “Higher primates learn when they make mistakes, lower primates don’t learn,” was Arthur Sinodinos’s description of a good leader when he was John Howard’s formidable chief of staff.

    A good article.

  26. Confessions @ #74 Saturday, April 7th, 2018 – 10:18 am

    Darn:

    It’s just one poll. The only reason so much attention is being placed on it is because it’s Turnbull’s famous Newspoll #30.

    🙂

    I t’s a bit like when people correlate every extreme weather event with being proof that climate change is occurring or about to occur. Sometimes a storm is just a storm!

  27. Murphy’s article does go on to talk about the NEG, and says this
    When they secured party room agreement for the national energy guarantee in principle last October, Turnbull and the energy minister, Josh Frydenberg, had the advantage of stealth – they tasked bureaucrats with cooking up the policy quickly and quietly while Abbott warbled on incessantly in the cosy coal conversation corner furnished by 2GB, and Sky News at night.

    The policy was dropped on the party room and pushed through with only a minimum of resistance because Abbott and the coal crew had been lulled into thinking they had won round one.

    The NEG was designed last year solely on the purpose to get something, an announcible through the party room.

    (Guess what, my spell checker doesn’t recognize announcible).

  28. If you want to understand just how desperate the tories are to win the next election, and how low they will sink to do so, then you should read this article …

    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2018/04/07/turnbull-and-the-boomer-racket/15230232006058

    In Britain today, McAllister says, age differences in voting are now about 50 percentage points between young and old. Among the youngest voters, close to 70 per cent now vote Labor, while barely 20 per cent vote conservative. At the other end of the age spectrum, among voters aged over 70, the percentages are reversed. “In Australia, it’s a bit less,” McAllister says, “but nevertheless in the order of 30 percentage points. That’s huge in historical terms.”

    In both Britain and Australia, if the tories don’t win the next election, they may never win another.

    About the only thing you can guarantee is that things are going to get nasty!

  32. Occupational churn, a measure of the rate at which technology replaces human workers, is at record lows. Labour productivity growth is also at record lows. If vast labour-displacing effects of automation were imminent, they would be showing up in those two statistics. They aren’t.

    Automation has three types of impact on human workers. 1. Labour displacement. 2. Labour augmentation (increasing the productivity and accuracy of human workers). 3. Job creation by increasing people’s productivity and spending power.

    It is amateur hour to rave about effect 1 and neglect the other two.

  33. “The NEG was designed last year solely on the purpose to get something, an announcible through the party room.”

    The NEG wasn’t really designed at all it was just a vague brainfart without any details, or support really.

  34. Psyclaw says:
    Saturday, April 7, 2018 at 10:17 am
    Darn
    Hanrahan!

    Don

    “A good friend of mine was a PhD. He said that anyone of reasonable intelligence could get one, all they needed was a steady source of income and persistence.”

    Don’t tell me. Your friend’s PhD thesis was was titled The Art and Origins of Gross Oversimplification and Inaccurate Generalisations.

    It was a scholarly and useful work on the birds of New Guinea.

  35. Peter van Onselen‏Verified account @vanOnselenP · 1h1 hour ago

    So Tony Abbott’s pollie pedal (where the MPs involved claim taxpayer funded travel allowances) just happens to be riding through the La Trobe Valley – coal mining country – on the day the 30th Newspoll hits. You can only laugh at such a calculating use of a charity initiative…

  36. Environment Victoria‏Verified account @EnviroVic · 1h1 hour ago

    Wow, thank you BP for offering to spill oil as a “welcome boost” to coastal economies! What a great local job, collecting dead seals and cleaning up toxic sludge. We are so grateful for your contribution. https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/bp-claims-an-oil-spill-off-australia-s-coast-would-be-a-welcome-boost-to-local-economies-20180406-p4z867.html … via @theage

  37. The NEG wasn’t really designed at all it was just a vague brainfart without any details, or support really.
    True,
    that should read as:
    “The NEG was designed devised last year solely on the purpose to get something, an announcible through the party room.”

  38. I wonder if the likely skew of this poll is explained by its timing. Not done over a weekend like most others are. Might have made certain groups less likely to respond.

  42. It is South Australia post election and nothing is happening with Premier Whatisname in charge. Some complaints about what he has inherited from Labor, but I just say. ‘shut up, you wanted it, you got it, its your problem now.’

    Stupid bloody SA voters.

  43. Don

    A good friend of mine was a PhD. He said that anyone of reasonable intelligence could get one, all they needed was a steady source of income and persistence.

    I’m pretty sure your friends theory does not apply to the physical sciences and maths.

  48. Jolyon Wagg says:
    Saturday, April 7, 2018 at 1:18 pm
    Don

    A good friend of mine was a PhD. He said that anyone of reasonable intelligence could get one, all they needed was a steady source of income and persistence.

    I’m pretty sure your friends theory does not apply to the physical sciences and maths.

    _______________________

    I quite agree, for the hard sciences, mathematics, physics, engineering, chemistry, outstanding ability is required, that is certain.

    If your doctorate is in the study of turbulent flow, you are higher still in the spectrum of intelligence and ability.

    According to an apocryphal story, Werner Heisenberg was asked what he would ask God, given the opportunity. His reply was: “When I meet God, I am going to ask him two questions: Why relativity? And why turbulence? I really believe he will have an answer for the first.”

    I have heard this story attributed to others, and one said that he would not ask about turbulence, since he did not want to embarrass God.

  50. This is an old article, but I can’t believe that Dutton supports the permanent separation of families. Doesn’t the thickhead realise that family separation is one of the causes of stress and ‘bad’ behaviour? (A lesson not learned by the separation of Aboriginal children from their families, apparently.) 😡

    The Australian government has defended a policy encouraging refugees held on Nauru to sever ties with their families – including relinquishing all rights to ever see their children – in order to be considered for resettlement in the US.

    The immigration minister, Peter Dutton, said on Wednesday that Australia’s policy would not change but the UN children’s agency and parliamentarians have all urged Australia to uphold international law and the unity of families.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/dec/07/peter-dutton-defends-nauru-policy-after-refugees-told-to-separate-from-family?CMP=share_btn_tw

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