Two days out from the one we’ve all been waiting for, Fairfax has cutely interjected with an Ipsos poll – conducted on this most special of occasions from Tuesday to Thursday for publication on Friday night, and not from Thursday to Saturday for publication on Sunday night as standard. The sample is 1166, somewhat lower than the usual 1400 from Ipsos.
The headline two-party result of 52-48 to Labor, as determined using 2016 election preference flows, is only slightly above the Coalition’s usual form – but Malcolm Turnbull is given a very useful straw to grasp with a tied result using respondent-allocated preferences. This is something the Coalition hasn’t achieved on either kind of two-party measure in any poll since September 2016, except for the quirky and apparently short-lived YouGov series for Fifty Acres. The previous Ipsos poll in early December had Labor leading 53-47 on previous election preferences and 52-48 on respondent allocation. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up two to 36%, Labor is up a point to 34%, and the Greens are down a point to 12% (high results for the Greens being a consistent features of Ipsos polls).
The good news for Malcolm Turnbull doesn’t end there: the poll finds only 28% in favour of the Liberals removing him as leader, compared with 62% who think he should remain, and his approval rating bounces five points to 47%, with disapproval down six to 43%. This is the first time since April last year that Turnbull has recorded net favourable personal ratings – the previous instance being another Ipsos poll, which is no coincidence, since the series consistently records high approval and low undecided ratings for both leaders. Bill Shorten is steady on 38% approval and up one on disapproval to 53%. The poll also finds 49% support for company tax cuts, with the number opposed not provided. This is dramatically more favourable than ReachTEL’s finding of 29% in favour and 56% opposed, although recent Essential Research polls have had slight net favourable results.
We have also had Roy Morgan publish results of its face-to-face polling for the second fortnight a row, which the pollster has hitherto been reserving for its massively expensive subscriber service since the 2016 election campaign. I’m not sure if this portends a regular return to publication, or if it will be appearing on an ad hoc basis, as the release a fortnight ago seemed to suggest. Whatever it is, the result is likewise on the high side for the Coalition, with Labor holding a steady 51-49 lead on two-party preferred. This is in contrast to the form of the Morgan face-to-face series of old, which was notorious for its skew to Labor.
However, as with Ipsos, it’s respondent allocation that’s making the difference – if previous election preferences were applied, Labor’s lead would be up from 51-49 to 53-47. The primary votes are Coalition 38.5%, down from 40% a fortnight ago; Labor 37.5%, up from 35%; Greens 11%, down from 12%; and One Nation on an unusually weak 3%, down from 3.5%. The Morgan release has two-party breakdowns by state and income category. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a combined sample of 1477.
While we are waiting for NewsPoll, here is an interesting photo. Prince Charles is done with the Gold Coast games, and has ditched Camilla to hook up with JulieB and ‘go native’ in a visit today to Vanuatu.
Not sure why he declined to don the penis gourd?
OMG that is so incredibly unbelievably ridiculous!
And presumably because it’s gone on for so long now they can’t conceivably make it FTTK at this point.
Test
sprocket_ @ #751 Sunday, April 8th, 2018 – 7:55 pm
Would you put your “p” in a gourd?
C@t:
There’s also that statement from the Sth African govt that was released the other day. Do Goodenough and Hastie refute the advice from the Sth African govt, in which case they need to discuss this with JBishop and Turnbull.
52/48
Shorten frightened Boomer pensioners.
For any Comm Games tragics, Malawe just defeated NZ in the Netball.
Not sure why he declined to don the penis gourd?
Wouldn’t haggle.
The use of “curb’ instead of ‘kerb’ no doubt caused by an infestation of ‘Septic Tanks’ in the NBN woodwork.
mikehilliard @ #741 Sunday, April 8th, 2018 – 7:48 pm
Tried the US? Things are different over there, they don’t speak English, they speak American.
Confessions @ #749 Sunday, April 8th, 2018 – 7:53 pm
*eyes rolling*
So when do we commence the slow handclap for newspoll?
10 minutes? Half an hour?
Ratsak
In fact the technical trend is in the opposite direction i.e. back to rail. Most advanced technology large vehicles as you have suggested have not panned out in practice. Large vehicles are heavy and running in the same spot over a regular route usually means they need a concrete pavement to take the weight. This is costly, often with no saving over a rail track slab. Batteries to replace petrol or overhead catenary power are heavy, so modern wireless electric vehicles (bus or rail) are actually heavier than the diesel buses or electric trams they might replace.
Yes you could develop an entirely new vehicle from scratch, as the US tried to do with the BART system in SanFranciso. But then it does not fit any of the existing road lanes or rail lines and so needs a whole new guideway at very high cost. Our cities are already built, with the width of roads and rail lines already fixed, unless you resume all the land along one side (costly and impacting) or go to tunnelling (even more costly). So most technical development focuses on getting more efficient vehicles that will run in existing road lanes or rail lines. It would take decades to rebuold all that infrastructure. It wont happen in my lifetime.
Confessions @ #755 Sunday, April 8th, 2018 – 7:59 pm
Yes, of course they refute it. The SA government is full of Darkies!
I mean, you and I know it’s nuts but they would believe what a White Afrikaner says over a Black South African any day.
Boerwar @ #756 Sunday, April 8th, 2018 – 8:00 pm
You would say that.
mike we all know surveyors deal with quaint language.
I’m reminded of how it was pointed out to us years ago by a surveyor about the difference between a “right of way” and a “right of carriageway”. Apparently the former doesn’t allow cars.
Ratsak
There is a lot of ink spilt on this topic. If you want more technical discussion read Vukan Vuchic’s book on transit techology, which is a good survey of the topic. For capacity and space wfficiency nothing beats passenger rail. For energy efficinecy nothing with a motor beats light rail. Though bicycle is the real champ for efficiency 🙂
Bill Hayden sure has aged, understandably, Dallas hayden, not so much:
I used Wikipedia as I didnt know lol
Fiber to the node or neighborhood (FTTN), sometimes identified with and sometimes distinguished from fiber to the cabinet (FTTC), is a telecommunication architecture based on fiber-optic cables run to a cabinet serving a neighborhood
Socrates,
Weight is no longer the issue with battery powered mass transit vehicles. Any road surface that is designed for trucks (and most are) can cope with a battery powered, rubber tired, segmented vehicle with low floors – in other words a tram.
In some case you may wish to lay concrete or to lay concrete over a dedicated right of way (such opportunities do exist). However there is no need for the utter excess demonstrated by the Sydney CBD light rail network with trackform (concrete slabs) that are over a metre thick in places.
Steve,
Thanks to Turnbull we also have “MTM” which stood for Multi Technology Mix.
History will remember this as Malcom Turnbull’s Mistake.
Socrates @ #767 Sunday, April 8th, 2018 – 8:11 pm
https://www.amazon.com/Transportation-Livable-Cities-Vukan-Vuchic/dp/0882851616
Is this the book? (I’ve always thought that transportation is the key to an evolving civilisation. It’s how to fit more in, bring things into reach, etc.)
I wonder if Mr Bowe knows the results of Newspoll yet?
Hasn’t newspoll been reported on “national wrap” on a sunday night??
C@tmomma @ #773 Sunday, April 8th, 2018 – 8:20 pm
I think Mr Bowe posts under the pseudonym of Wayne 🙂
Turnbull’s NBN: FTTT
Fibre to the toilet.
Trams do not have tires, they have steel wheels that run on steel rails. Trams are smaller versions of light rail. You are talking about battery buses/battery BRT.
steve davis @ #769 Sunday, April 8th, 2018 – 8:14 pm
I have never heard that distinction made in Australia.
We are talking about Fibre To The Node and Fibre To The Curb (Kerb) in that diagram plus Fibre To The Basement and Fibre To The Home.
I don’t like the term FTTH as it is the same connection to small businesses so I prefer Fibre To The Premises – FTTP.
Who started all the distraction on this?
C@tmomma @ #768 Sunday, April 8th, 2018 – 8:11 pm
There are better ex-Queensland cops than Adolph Kipfler.
Late Riser @ #772 Sunday, April 8th, 2018 – 8:16 pm
Never mind. I think this is the book you mean: Urban Transit Systems and Technology.
https://www.amazon.com/Urban-Transit-Systems-Technology-Vuchic/dp/047175823X/ref=sr_1_3
Bit expensive. Hopefully my local library can help. 🙂
bemused @ #778 Sunday, April 8th, 2018 – 8:24 pm
Turnbull!
rhwombat,
There are still better cops in today’s Queensland Police Force than Peter Dutton! He’s the bad potato in the bunch.
Ouch!
david rowe (@roweafr) Tweeted:
pull up to the bumper @FinancialReview #Newspoll30 #auspol https://t.co/th5nudH3uA https://twitter.com/roweafr/status/982882395044036608?s=17
David Rowe warming up ?
Just filling the gaps till N30 with inspirational quotes 🙂
I think we all just passing time waiting for the main event.
Brilliant Rowe as per usual.
Now here is a list. All the past presidents of the NSW Young Liberals.
Some august names on the list indeed. I wonder if the latest entry, AFR Editor and Insiders couch warmer Mike Stutchbury’s kid, will do as well?
PAST PRESIDENTS OF THE NSW YL MOVEMENT
1962-1964 John Howard
1964-1965 Jeffrey Kirby
1965-1966 Graham Jones
1966-1967 Phillip Morgan
1967-1968 Warren McCullagh
1968-1971 Peter Fitzgibbon
1971-1972 Philip Ruddock
1972-1974 Christopher Puplick
1974-1976 Neil Hansford
1976-1978 Jim Carey
1978-1979 Robert Nestdale
1979-1980 David Minty
1980-1982 Christopher Crawford
1982-1984 Michael Photios
1984-1985 Andrew Kirk
1985-1986 Catherine Cusack
1986-1987 Scott Heathwood
1987-1988 Marise Payne
1988-1990 Donald Harwin
1990-1991 Joseph Hockey
1991-1992 Trent Zimmerman
1992-1993 John Brogden
1993-1994 Shayne Mallard
1994-1995 Jason Falinski
1995-1996 Andrew Maiden
1996-1997 Gladys Berejiklian
1997-1998 Jason Collins
1998-1999 Ross Cadell
1999-2000 Tony Chappel
2000-2001 Andrew Constance
2001-2002 Ben Franklin
2002-2005 Alexander Hawke
2005-2005 Dominic Perrottet
2005-2006 Natasha Maclaren-Jones
2006-2008 Noel McCoy
2008-2011 Scott Farlow
2011-2014 Simon Fontana
2014-2015 James Wallace
2015-2017 Alex Dore
2017- Harry Stutchbury
Late Riser @ #740 Sunday, April 8th, 2018 – 7:45 pm
I thought ‘B’ in this case was for ‘Basement’? My understanding of the acronyms was:
FTTN – Fibre To The Node; garbage, basically the “don’t actually run any new fibre, just upgrade everyone’s DSL” option
FTTC – Fibre To The Curb; pretty good, fibre is run all the way to a small box in the street in front of the premises*
FTTP – Fibre To The Premises; top of the line, fibre is run all the way to a box on the inside of the premises
FTTH – Fibre To The Home; same thing as FTTP
FTTB – Fibre To The Basement; pretty good, this is basically like FTTC for buildings*, you run fibre to a box inside the building, but then use the building’s internal copper wire rather than continuing the fibre to each individual unit
* “Premises” means a single-family home; “Building” means a multi-dwelling unit, apartment complex, and similar
Sprocket’s image is useful but also a bit confusing because it’s only showing MDU’s.
a r @ #789 Sunday, April 8th, 2018 – 8:35 pm
Thanks ar. It’s a bugger, but Fibre To The “whatever” is what non-techs hear. And I think that might have been the point all along.
i thought everyone here thought shorten delivered dividend matter well, and gained votes .
now there are doubts
he didn’t
geoffrey @ #791 Sunday, April 8th, 2018 – 8:44 pm
Haiku?
Fttb, fibre to the basement is the same technology as fibre to the node. The advantage is the copper to run vdsl is shorter than a node in the street.
In honour of the Purple One, Adam Levine. So freakin’ awesome.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8w2lNpixqOc
Well, at least Wayne has worked out that 3+3 = 6 + 2019 = 2025. Progress!
Everything else is sad, delusional garbage… unless it’s some kind of trolling/performance art, then it’s an especial waste of time to bother reading him.
That will be my last response to it.
Wayne
I thought it was forever a few minutes ago.Losing the faith already?
All these references to “our great LNP” by Wayne – is anyone else reminded of Chinese Communist propaganda of the 1960s and 70s, all overstuffed with adjectives?
Trigger warning: he’s a Republican.
Wayne is Beetroot and Abbotts lovechild.
Why can’t they have the “great LNP”?
They’ve got the”Glorious Julie”, after all.