ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor

Labor maintains its commanding lead in the latest ReachTEL poll, as respondents give the thumbs down to company tax cuts.

A ReachTEL poll for Sky News finds Labor maintaining its 54-46 lead from the last such poll a month ago. However, the primary votes are not quite as strong for Labor as last time, when Labor’s two-party lead was subdued by a strong flow of respondent-allocated preferences to the Coalition. This time the Coalition is up one on the primary vote to 34%, while both Labor and the Greens are down a point, to 36% and 10% respectively, and One Nation are steady on 7%.

The poll also finds 56% of respondents opposed to company tax cuts, with only 29% supportive, and only 26% thinking it likely the cuts will be passed on to workers, compared with 68% for unlikely. Not surprisingly, a question on whether Tony Abbott should return as Liberal leader after the next election finds little support, with 25% for yea and 64% for nay.

Together with the Newspoll and Essential Research, the ReachTEL results have been included in the lastest BludgerTrack update, which once again records essentially no change on voting intention, with ReachTEL’s strong result for Labor cancelling out a weak one from Essential Research. However, Labor is up two on the seat projection for Queensland, mostly because Galaxy’s 52-48 lead for the Coalition in that state in a Courier-Mail poll a month ago is no longer exerting its pull. Also included are the latest leadership ratings from Newspoll, which take a small bite out of Malcolm Turnbull’s net approval and preferred prime minister lead. We should have Newspoll’s quarterly state breakdowns next week, which will make the BludgerTrack state breakdowns a little more robust.

If you’re a Crikey subscriber, you can enjoy my piece today on how the recent halt to the rise of minor parties might play out in the Senate over the coming years. Below is a chart I knocked up to illustrate it, which I decided not to use. It combines federal and state election results, so that the reading at any point in time uses results from the most recent elections federally in each state, with each election weighted by its voting population.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,607 comments on “ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. Boerwar @ #1398 Sunday, April 1st, 2018 – 5:03 pm

    Anti-semitism used to be almost the sole preserve of the Far Right. In Europe it was closely linked to Right Wing Roman Catholicism.

    It is most unfortunate that some elements of the Left have caught this hideous contagion.

    If we in the Left have claims to supporting universal humanity then we must be on guard against this insidious form of racism.

    We cannot do this by remaining silent. We must call it out when we see it.

    We are what we walk past.

    That is all I will say on the topic of Corbyn’s anti-semitism for today.

    Try and improve your game tomorrow will you… 😉

  2. ‘Fulvio Sammut says:
    Sunday, April 1, 2018 at 5:02 pm

    You are a dotterel?’

    Thanks. I needed a laugh. Anti-semitism really stresses me. No, the image can readily be tracked to the source on the Web using relevant apps. Apart from that, it is a good enough image to be competitive in bird image comps. Too easy.

  3. To me the whole concept of “race” among humans is absurd and stupid like believing in flat earth or some such.

    Even the bloody Nazis with their pseudo-science could not define what a “jew” was nor even an “aryan”. Total hocus-pocus.

    There is only one human race with many minor superficial differences. Which differences does one arbitrarily decide make a “race”.

  4. Boerwar says:
    Sunday, April 1, 2018 at 4:55 pm

    …”My best guess is that individuals have not done a particularly sharp intellectual job of discriminate betwen jewry and the actions of people like Netanyahu and the State of Israel.”…

    .
    Anyone who tries to make this distinction is shouted down as a bigot.
    It has been happening here all day today.
    You’re just late to the party is all.

  5. p

    A beautiful little bird. It migrates between NZ, where it breeds, and Australia where it fattens up in the non-breeding season. We get the dull non-breeding version. Here it gets called the Double-banded Dotterel or Plover.
    The Kiwis get the beauty!
    Rats!

  6. No Rex, cause, cause thirty or so right wing Labour members out of 230 have raised concerns, so the whole party is against him…look…look they are protesting en mass cause, cause Corbyn is a closet Nazi. It must be right cause, cause Gerald Henderson says so. Ha, ha!

  8. Hi fess,
    Actually I’ve not been well, though seem to be on the mend. Thanks for asking. Also computer has been spitting the dummy, hence my asking Kay Jay for link for C+

  11. Kay Jay
    If you’re still about, thanks, but while it says it’s installed, the icon doesn’t light up and I can’t get it to work. Have tried refresh, logging out then in, but nada.
    Do you have any ideas?

  12. The comments against Candice Warner were disgusting and authorities should have taken action however Warner’s subsequent actions just made matters worse.

  14. ‘monica says:
    Sunday, April 1, 2018 at 5:10 pm

    Hi fess,
    Actually I’ve not been well, though seem to be on the mend. Thanks for asking. Also computer has been spitting the dummy, hence my asking Kay Jay for link for C+’

    Monica
    Best wishes for a speedy recovery. Was down your way earlier in the week for a family event. Melbourne seems to becoming more and more crowded by the month. We left in the wee hours to avoid the traffic.

  16. ‘davidwh says:
    Sunday, April 1, 2018 at 5:15 pm

    The comments against Candice Warner were disgusting and authorities should have taken action however Warner’s subsequent actions just made matters worse.’

    Agree.

  17. monica @ #1340 Sunday, April 1st, 2018 – 5:13 pm

    Kay Jay
    If you’re still about, thanks, but while it says it’s installed, the icon doesn’t light up and I can’t get it to work. Have tried refresh, logging out then in, but nada.
    Do you have any ideas?

    What I do is restart the computer then click on the C+ Icon to bring up the options.
    Click on “Override HTML comments”
    Click on “Recent comments first”
    Click on “Block Ads” – if you like.

    Then click on SAVE

    Please advise success. I don’t take bad news well.

    We wish you well regarding your health and well-being. 🕊🕊 Ƹ̴Ӂ̴ƷƸ̴Ӂ̴Ʒ

  20. I feel very sorry for Warner’s family, his wife in particular, but she needs to take at good look at her husband’s behaviour because it’s partially to blame for her embarrassment. Candice should give Stuart Trott a ring.

  21. p
    Gorgeous shot. But… note that the eyes in this image are a flat black.It shows one of the major difficulties with photographing shorebirds – getting some sort of catchlight or colour in the eyes. My theory is that because they live live in the open, often near fierce water glare there is some sort of evolutionary advantage to eye protection. You can see that this species has quite a pronounced ‘eyebrow’. I see that it has been banded. There are two schools of thought among bird photographers. The first is that birds should not be photographed while they wear bling. The other school is more ‘So what?’ about bling.

  22. Fess and Boerwar
    Thanks for your kind wishes.
    Agree with you about Melbourne’s congestion. We avoid it as much as possible, which thankfully, we can mostly do since we moved out to Bacchus Marsh. However, Bacchus Marsh is now rapidly expanding and a great deal of land between here and the city is also in the process of rapid development.

  24. EBA Truth‏ @ebatruth · 54m54 minutes ago

    A strong bunch of letters in The Age today, slamming the Liberals’ plumbing of the depths of depravity in the pairing scandal. Those lying con artists have NO moral authority to opine on the fire services or any other topic. #JudasGate #springst

  25. monica
    BM! We had close friends out that way and used to drop in on our peregrinations to and fro the Deep North.
    They have since moved on but it used to be bucolic… not sure what the case is now.

  28. Puffytmd @ #1274 Sunday, April 1st, 2018 – 2:20 pm

    Bemused,
    Hijacked planes and murdered passengers occupied our screens for days at time. I was young but I remember the time when you worried more about hijacking than crashing. Then along came those mobs of ‘freedom fighters’. Oh, and trains too.

    Nothing like the subsequent actions of Al Queda.
    About all I remember is when they blew up a couple of empty planes on a runway somewhere and the attack on the Israeli athletes at Munich.
    These were bad enough, but pale into insignificance next to the massacres of Palestinian refugees at the Sabra and Shatila refugee camps in Lebanon by the Israeli backed Phalangist militia.
    Get some sense of proportion please.

  30. A strong bunch of letters in The Age today, slamming the Liberals’ plumbing of the depths of depravity in the pairing scandal. Those lying con artists have NO moral authority to opine on the fire services or any other topic. #JudasGate #springst

    Well that’s good to hear, but are they representative of community sentiment?

  32. monica
    Do you have CTaR1’s contact details? You may not have noticed that he is no longer posting. He was having health problems shortly before he stopped. I am very concerned. Would you mind checking?

  39. Clem Attlee @ #1310 Sunday, April 1st, 2018 – 3:47 pm

    Corbyn is a mainstream democratic socialist. He only looks far left to you Boer War , because of your Grouper perspective. Has anyone come up with any definitive anti Semitic comments he has made? By that I do not mean anti Zionist, which is all together different.

    I think many would be right on side with various Holocaust survivors who have condemned Israel’s treatment of Palestinians. You, Corbyn and I are as much anti-semites as they are.

  40. Boerwar @ #1315 Sunday, April 1st, 2018 – 3:55 pm

    CA

    Corbyn is idolized by the Far Lefties on Bludger.

    These are the same folk who refuse to acknowledge that Brexit rode home on a wave of racism and xenophobia fomented by the Faragist neo-nazis. Plus the outrageous lies. Plus the two-faced behaviour of the reacitonaries. Plus the utter spinelessness of Corbyn.

    Three dozen of his own MPs have called him out publicly on his anti-semitism.

    The UK Jewish Community has openly belled his anti-semitic cat.

    Oh, and one other thing. One of the cue words for anti-semites is their very ready recourse to the claim that they are being anti-Zionist.

    But you knew that.

    As for the ‘Grouper’ taunt how very quaint!

    Do you believe your own bullshit?
    I am mainstream ALP but I suppose a little on the left side.
    I thought Brexit was a bad idea. I condemn Farage and I respect Corbyn for exceeding all expectations at the UK election.

  43. Boerwar @ #1327 Sunday, April 1st, 2018 – 4:05 pm

    lizzie

    Farage stoked racist hate to ensure that British people voted for Brexit. He lied through his teeth.

    Corbyn did fuck all about either of those things.

    The Tory Party money bags who wanted Brexit because they intend to screw the workers and the environment and those on social security were happy with Farage.

    Corbyn showed fuck all leadership about that as well.

    Corbyn is weak and is right now facing an internal party revolt based on his anti-semitism.

    The Bludgers who supported Corbyn and Brexit have shut up about both.

    Perhaps none exist outside of your fevered imagination. I support Corbyn and oppose Brexit and anti-semitism.

    Must be very disambiguating for you.

  46. Ye Gads. Not only has the trifecta of a full moon, Eatsre Sunday and April fools day brought out the Israeli-Palestinian howlers as a bonus we are getting a Corbyn vs Blair virtue signalling smack down. My index finger is bleeding.

    I think i may as well throw some chum in the water …

    “RUDD!”

    “No. GILLARD!!”

  47. Who the actual fuck is this Stuart Trott character?

    FMD. Jonathon Trott bailed because he couldn’t hack Mitch Johnson’s pace. The idea Warner’s sledging is what sent him off is batshit insanity. He got found out. Good player, but not good enough to deal with what MJ and Rhino were dishing out.

    And you can think what you like about Warner, but the idea that he isn’t a very good husband and wife who clearly and dearly loves his family is just so much bullshit.

    Did he handle the smearing of the woman he loves well? Of course not. But the culprits got let off with a slap on the wrists. He then was subjected to even more and more vile vilification of his wife in the next test. Have at least a tiny bit of decency and put yourself in the shoes of a man having the wife he loves being treated like that. You may have enough sense not to reach for the sandpaper, but saying to ‘just be the bigger man’ is fucking easy when it’s not your loved ones being traduced.

  49. Is it true about what they say and a full moon and lunatics? I knew a nurse who worked in A and E and she swore by it. Judging some of the posters on here I’m inclined to agree with her.

  50. Stuart Trott was an English batsmen who suffered a nervous breakdown during a tour of Australia. Warner went hell for leather at him and some in the England camp blame Warner. He is the most hated player in cricket for good reason.

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