ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor

Labor maintains its commanding lead in the latest ReachTEL poll, as respondents give the thumbs down to company tax cuts.

A ReachTEL poll for Sky News finds Labor maintaining its 54-46 lead from the last such poll a month ago. However, the primary votes are not quite as strong for Labor as last time, when Labor’s two-party lead was subdued by a strong flow of respondent-allocated preferences to the Coalition. This time the Coalition is up one on the primary vote to 34%, while both Labor and the Greens are down a point, to 36% and 10% respectively, and One Nation are steady on 7%.

The poll also finds 56% of respondents opposed to company tax cuts, with only 29% supportive, and only 26% thinking it likely the cuts will be passed on to workers, compared with 68% for unlikely. Not surprisingly, a question on whether Tony Abbott should return as Liberal leader after the next election finds little support, with 25% for yea and 64% for nay.

Together with the Newspoll and Essential Research, the ReachTEL results have been included in the lastest BludgerTrack update, which once again records essentially no change on voting intention, with ReachTEL’s strong result for Labor cancelling out a weak one from Essential Research. However, Labor is up two on the seat projection for Queensland, mostly because Galaxy’s 52-48 lead for the Coalition in that state in a Courier-Mail poll a month ago is no longer exerting its pull. Also included are the latest leadership ratings from Newspoll, which take a small bite out of Malcolm Turnbull’s net approval and preferred prime minister lead. We should have Newspoll’s quarterly state breakdowns next week, which will make the BludgerTrack state breakdowns a little more robust.

If you’re a Crikey subscriber, you can enjoy my piece today on how the recent halt to the rise of minor parties might play out in the Senate over the coming years. Below is a chart I knocked up to illustrate it, which I decided not to use. It combines federal and state election results, so that the reading at any point in time uses results from the most recent elections federally in each state, with each election weighted by its voting population.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,607 comments on “ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. Boerwar says:
    Sunday, April 1, 2018 at 4:21 pm

    …”Still the utter silence on Corbyn’s anti-semitism by the Left.
    Still the routine criticisms of Dutton for his racism and of Turnbull for his silence on Dutton’s racism.
    But.. on Corbyn’s anti-semitism: silence”…

    .
    Dutton would ‘ave you nicked, if he knew you were making this comparison.

  2. Rex this guy and Briefly are bots, not genuine posters. Don’t worry Boer War, Briefly’s mum says he can come back on, as soon as he has finished cleaning his room, feeding his guniea pigs and done his home work.

  3. ‘Clem Attlee says:
    Sunday, April 1, 2018 at 4:19 pm

    Boer War, ‘feminists’ might have, but not mainstream women.’

    I was confronted by the term when I first came across it.

    Shaming girls as ‘sluts’ while boys were ‘sowing their wild oats’ for exactly the same sexual behaviour is vile stuff.

    I am glad that feminists have taken the lead on this particular bit of rank misogyny. It shouldn’t be up to women to take the lead on this sort of shit, either. It should be up to all of us.

    As for your insights into ‘mainstream women’ I suspect they are about as useful as your looking the other way while Corbyn displays his anti-semitism.

  4. AoE
    So, are you OK with Corbyn’s anti-semitism? Over three dozen of his own MPs are not. Who are you with?
    Silence?

  5. I don’t know, but Warner came off looking very insecure by his response to DeKock.
    Wouldn’t someone comfortable in a relationship just shrug off the sledging ?

  6. lizzie
    No worries. Life is too short!
    BTW, I had the good fortune to capture a wonderful image of a Red-kneed Dotterel a little while ago. If you get William to send me your email address I will send you a copy. I was thinking of Ken the other day when I was using his book. His work lives on.

  7. I have never met any woman who approves of being described as a ‘slut’. Boer War taking the classic propaganda line. Tell a lie, make it a big one and never waste an opportunity to keep repeating it. When is your next DLP branch meeting mate? By the size of the party, you must have a pretty good shot at first place on the senate ticket?

  8. According to reports I have read Warner gave an interview to a Guardian journalist at the start of the tour who was surprised at how relaxed and happy he seemed, particularly as it had been an arduous summer.

    He had just received high praise for his work as captain in the T20 tournament in NZ and I guess nothing helps a sportsman’s attitude like success..

    A week or so later we saw the brain explosion when AB de Villiers was run out. The same journalist recalled being surprised by that. He recalled thinking he wasn’t sure whether teammates were embracing Warner or restraining him.

    Then it seems he spent the next hour chirping away at de Kock, the main topic being jokes about de Kock’s name.

    Walking off for tea was when de Kock made reference to Mrs Warner prompting the confrontation.

    So what happened to turn nice Dave into ugly Warner between the start of the tour and the run out?

    Any number of things are possible I guess but the whole business needs to be seen in a much wider context than what was obviously a disgraceful comment about someone’s wife.

  9. ‘Clem Attlee says:
    Sunday, April 1, 2018 at 4:25 pm

    Rex this guy and Briefly are bots, not genuine posters. Don’t worry Boer War, Briefly’s mum says he can come back on, as soon as he has finished cleaning his room, feeding his guniea pigs and done his home work.’

    Personal abuse as a means of deflection is pathetic.

    So, are you too walking past Corbyn’s anti-semitism?

  10. Boerwar says:
    Sunday, April 1, 2018 at 4:28 pm

    …”AoE
    So, are you OK with Corbyn’s anti-semitism? Over three dozen of his own MPs are not. Who are you with?
    Silence?”…

    I am reliably informed by someone here that I am also an antisemite, so I suppose I’ll stick with the communist.

  11. rossmcg
    ‘Any number of things are possible I guess but the whole business needs to be seen in a much wider context than what was obviously a disgraceful comment about someone’s wife.’

    In a nutshell. Bang.

    Sutherland must resign.

  12. Absence of Empathy says:
    Sunday, April 1, 2018 at 4:32 pm

    Boerwar says:
    Sunday, April 1, 2018 at 4:28 pm

    …”AoE
    So, are you OK with Corbyn’s anti-semitism? Over three dozen of his own MPs are not. Who are you with?
    Silence?”…

    I am reliably informed by someone here that I am also an antisemite, so I suppose I’ll stick with the communist.’

    So, are OK with the leader of the British Labour Party being an anti-Semite? Or are you walking past that?

  13. The “cheap foreign workers au pair industry” puts their hand out and the Dutton au pair nexus thickens.

    The business lobby and nanny agencies have seized on the controversy surrounding Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton and the au pair detention saga to bolster their case for establishing a special visa category.

    ……………………….In the first case, an au pair whose visa was cancelled at Brisbane’s international airport in June 2015 was able to make a phone call and within a couple of hours Mr Dutton approved a new visa.

    In the second case in November the same year, Mr Dutton defied written warnings from his department that granting a visitors visa to the second au pair was of “high risk” because she had been previously counselled about work restrictions.

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/dutton-saga-fortifies-bid-for-au-pair-visa/news-story/dcd96a2eb70b9c7db83468ae2b20f410

  14. Boer War, the last time I checked, there were about 230 Labour members taking the whip. That is just a few more than the 30 or so who you mention. Most of whom would be Red Tories, taking any opportunity to knife Corbyn. If it were true, than surely the whole party room would turn against him?

  15. Boerwar @ #1363 Sunday, April 1st, 2018 – 4:32 pm

    ‘Clem Attlee says:
    Sunday, April 1, 2018 at 4:25 pm

    Rex this guy and Briefly are bots, not genuine posters. Don’t worry Boer War, Briefly’s mum says he can come back on, as soon as he has finished cleaning his room, feeding his guniea pigs and done his home work.’

    Personal abuse as a means of deflection is pathetic.

    So, are you too walking past Corbyn’s anti-semitism?

    Examples, Boerwar.

    I’m waiting…

  16. It is not just Corbyn in the British Labour Party, is it?
    The Party needs a bit of a clean up of anti-semites.
    The trouble is that Corbyn is not the chap to do the clean up, is he?

  17. ‘Clem Attlee says:
    Sunday, April 1, 2018 at 4:35 pm

    Boer War, the last time I checked, there were about 230 Labour members taking the whip. That is just a few more than the 30 or so who you mention. Most of whom would be Red Tories, taking any opportunity to knife Corbyn. If it were true, than surely the whole party room would turn against him?’

    I am not sure what your point is, here. The first thing that needs to be established is whether you think that Corbyn is an anti-semite or not.
    If you have not bothered to do a very small bit of due diligence on the matter but have nevertheless blustered on about the topic we are gaining some insights into your concerns about Corbyn’s anti-semitism.

  18. I did note Warner and Candice in a passionate embrace in front of the camera’s at his presser. Were they trying to prove something… ?

  19. ‘poroti says:
    Sunday, April 1, 2018 at 4:35 pm

    The “cheap foreign workers au pair industry” puts their hand out and the Dutton au pair nexus thickens.’

    Di Natale has been strangely silent on this one.

  20. Hey, Boer War says he has been insulted by being referred to as a bot, but it’s okay for him to infer that others are anti Semitic? Precious or what? You and Briefly are the David Warners of this board. Both of you are happy to dish it out, but both have glass jaws. Little want to be bully cry babies.

  21. ‘Clem Attlee says:
    Sunday, April 1, 2018 at 4:40 pm

    Hey, Boer War says he has been insulted by being referred to as a bot, but it’s okay for him to infer that others are anti Semitic? Precious or what? You and Briefly are the David Warners of this board. Both of you are happy to dish it out, but both have glass jaws. Little want to be bully cry babies.’

    So, are you concerned about Corbyn’s anti-semitism?

  22. Oakeshott Country @ #1276 Sunday, April 1st, 2018 – 4:24 pm

    Kay Jay. Unfortunately both people were in the public eye and not discrete. Notoriety was assured. What is done is done and the family need to have effective defence mechanisms

    Yes I know. I hope that each member of the family (extended) has a ready and willing wise friend for the long term. I spend a great deal of my time listening to and acting as such a willing friend to a couple of family members. There are no easy answers and the process can be very hard for all concerned.

    *****************************************
    I now go back to the cleanup.

    Whoever said the it is a fool who makes the same mistake twice obviously has a camera in my bedroom.

    I have spilled coffee again on to a similar (as last time) jewellery magnifier.

    😇 Smiling face with halo – pretending to virtue.

  23. You are the one making the accusations mate. Put up, or shut up. Where is your evidence. Smears are not evidence. Neither is dressing one thing up as something else. Really you should change your handle to Bore War, as it would be much more appropriate. Get over it. Go away and re-read the agenda for the next DLP branch meeting you are attending. Have you put the world wide socialist conspiracy on it yet, there might still be time you know?

  24. Boerwar says:
    Sunday, April 1, 2018 at 4:34 pm

    …”So, are OK with the leader of the British Labour Party being an anti-Semite? Or are you walking past that?”…

    .
    If your criteria for denouncing someone as such, are as weak as the other regular, rightist nitwit on this forum, then I am perfectly fine with the label.

    If you are simply looking to start an argument, then go right ahead and string a lucid one together, I am way, way better at it than you.
    Start by providing some evidence of your slur against the leader of the British Labour Party.

    Otherwise, naff off.

  25. I am fed up to the back teeth with people hiding behind the anti semitic wall (or mummy’s skits). Basically if any nation whther jewish, Christian Budhist, atheist or worshipping wicca behaves ina an unjust way they should be called out for it.

    I think Peter Dutton behaves despicably. Does that mean I am anti white or anti Australian.

    There is such a thing as right or wrong and it is not anti antisemitism to say that Israel is doing something wrong, anymore than it is wrong of the US to invade or bomb countries or for China to oppress Tibetans or for Australia to imprison refugees indefinitely.

    How about we stop using the terms Jewish and zionist wrt Israle and simply give it a national name and talk about its actions as an occupying power. Now is it somehow anti semitic to say that israeal occupies the West Bank.

    If not please give us some other name. What they are doing is oppressive and unjust. it is land theft, It is nothing tot do with religion. It is the Israeli government being an aggressive imperialist pack of monsters. Now there are many many on hear who rage in jhorroe (Briefly in particular) regarding the Russian seizure of Crimea, so why do they not with equal vigour protest the Israeli expansion into the west Bank.

    They do not because they are hypocritical Israeli fellow travelers. They DARE to rage against Russia taking over crimea (dspote the fact that 90% voted for and about 80% for Putin this election. I do not think Netanayo would get 1% of the vote on the west bank.

    Briefly is a supporter of apartheid. no better that the bloody Africaans. After all it is Desmond Tutu who first publicised the similarity in the situations.

  26. CA

    His own MPs. The British Jewish Community. Several dozen documented incidents by British Labour MPs including, ludicrously, Holocaust Denial. A couple of dozen recommendations for action to clean the joint up and most of the reccos not taken up. Corbyn’s well-documented and publicly available personal support for an anti-semitic mural.

    You could have found all this out but you chose to walk past it.

    And you are what you walk past.

  27. Ross

    The masks that were being worn did not just appear from nowhere in a matter of seconds.

    This was a premeditated attack on Warner hatched before the Australians ever put foot in South Africa.

    Look at the masks worn by those pictured with the South African cricket officials and you will have your answer.

    Those masks were available to all in South Africa

    And Warner’s wife and children were in South Africa, hearing the abuse and seeing the masks.

    What has to be stopped is the behaviour of supporters starting from the adulation media such as the 9 Network give to the “Barmy Army” and their rude and insulting chanting.

    They need to be thrown out of the ground

    I would expect that the 3 players are taking legal advice

  28. I honestly do not understand the point of contemporary antisemitism.

    Why would the Labour Party be antisemitic? Is it because it is pro-islam?

  29. Am I concerned? Not as yet, because nobody has come up with any evidence for it. If they did I would be. But, I’m not taken in by nut job conspiracy theories, or right wing propaganda in the main. I speak to sensible and some not so sensible British people every night. Only the nut jobs have been referencing this, the one’s who already hated Corbyn because he is a socialist. The sensible ones. even the Tories have not mentioned it much at all. You have to remember that the meme last week was that he was a spy for the USSR. The forces of Toryism will adopt any attack to undermine a real socialist alternative in Britain. They will be very thankful for your tiny, tiny role in that Boer War.

  30. ‘equal or not? says:
    Sunday, April 1, 2018 at 4:53 pm

    I honestly do not understand the point of contemporary antisemitism.

    Why would the Labour Party be antisemitic? Is it because it is pro-islam?’

    My best guess is that individuals have not done a particularly sharp intellectual job of discriminate betwen jewry and the actions of people like Netanyahu and the State of Israel.

    But who knows. Anti-semitism has a huge tradition in Europe with many tendrils and shoots.

  31. Boerwar

    Why don’t you just post the dotterel pic on PB for me? It would make a nice change from the aggro being shown atm. 😉

  32. In fact, if you add together all of us anti-semites on this blog, those who have no opinion on the matter and those who aren’t quite game to express one, we outnumber the “pro-semites” by about several hundred to 2.

  33. Rex Douglas

    Ah yes Tony Blah , unindicted war criminal and harlot for The City. Wadda guy , Wendy Deng described him as one of Rupes’ ‘closest family friends”…and

    Rupert Murdoch was “devastated” by the close relationship between his former wife Wendy Deng and Tony Blair after learning about the pair’s ties via his domestic staff,

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/14/rupert-murdoch-was-devastated-by-close-relationship-between-wend/

  34. Boerwar says:
    Sunday, April 1, 2018 at 4:55 pm

    …”I honestly do not understand the point of contemporary antisemitism”…

    .
    That is because the concept mostly resides in your fevered imagination.

  35. Anti-semitism used to be almost the sole preserve of the Far Right. In Europe it was closely linked to Right Wing Roman Catholicism.

    It is most unfortunate that some elements of the Left have caught this hideous contagion.

    If we in the Left have claims to supporting universal humanity then we must be on guard against this insidious form of racism.

    We cannot do this by remaining silent. We must call it out when we see it.

    We are what we walk past.

    That is all I will say on the topic of Corbyn’s anti-semitism for today.

  36. Bore War, 30ish members of the Labour Party have raised concerns, not the whole party. What did I say about lies? I think Corbyn has made a mistake concerning that mural, but, I don’t think that makes him anti Semitic. He may have looked at the anti capitalism aspect of it primarily. to be honest, that was all I saw when I first saw it. On closer examination there are anti Semitic symbols and such. Berger is one of those Red Tories I referenced earlier. She wants Corbyn out because of his opposition to neo liberalism. I’m with anyone who opposes anti Semitism. it has no place in any political party. But I’m also against opportunists, who seek to use it, to smear people because they oppose them for other reasons.

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