ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor

Labor maintains its commanding lead in the latest ReachTEL poll, as respondents give the thumbs down to company tax cuts.

A ReachTEL poll for Sky News finds Labor maintaining its 54-46 lead from the last such poll a month ago. However, the primary votes are not quite as strong for Labor as last time, when Labor’s two-party lead was subdued by a strong flow of respondent-allocated preferences to the Coalition. This time the Coalition is up one on the primary vote to 34%, while both Labor and the Greens are down a point, to 36% and 10% respectively, and One Nation are steady on 7%.

The poll also finds 56% of respondents opposed to company tax cuts, with only 29% supportive, and only 26% thinking it likely the cuts will be passed on to workers, compared with 68% for unlikely. Not surprisingly, a question on whether Tony Abbott should return as Liberal leader after the next election finds little support, with 25% for yea and 64% for nay.

Together with the Newspoll and Essential Research, the ReachTEL results have been included in the lastest BludgerTrack update, which once again records essentially no change on voting intention, with ReachTEL’s strong result for Labor cancelling out a weak one from Essential Research. However, Labor is up two on the seat projection for Queensland, mostly because Galaxy’s 52-48 lead for the Coalition in that state in a Courier-Mail poll a month ago is no longer exerting its pull. Also included are the latest leadership ratings from Newspoll, which take a small bite out of Malcolm Turnbull’s net approval and preferred prime minister lead. We should have Newspoll’s quarterly state breakdowns next week, which will make the BludgerTrack state breakdowns a little more robust.

If you’re a Crikey subscriber, you can enjoy my piece today on how the recent halt to the rise of minor parties might play out in the Senate over the coming years. Below is a chart I knocked up to illustrate it, which I decided not to use. It combines federal and state election results, so that the reading at any point in time uses results from the most recent elections federally in each state, with each election weighted by its voting population.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,607 comments on “ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. steve davis says:
    Sunday, April 1, 2018 at 3:34 pm
    I think its about time all these WAGs stayed at home during these away series.

    So it is the wives and partners who caused all this trouble, eh? Just shut the women away and all will be good with the world. Men would not cheat and crowds would not slut-shame their partners.

    Perhaps they way women dress means they ask for it too, eh?

    I think you are in the wrong country.

  2. I await with declining confidence a single one of the Corbyn worshippers on Bludger coming out about his anti-semitism.

    Does the Far Left look the other way here?

    Or is universal racism always bad when it is perpetrated by the Far Right Deathshead Duttons but Far Left anti-semitism is only a look-away tut tut?

  3. There is no possible way to allow the bat to do the talking when it comes to slut shaming.

    The most effective response would have been to ban slut shaming players for the rest of the series.

    The main message: there is no place for slut shaming in cricket.

    But that would have required people like Sutherland to show some leadership.

    He should resign in shame.

  4. A point I made some days ago. The Candice Warner story is well known, particularly in Rugby playing areas. The slut shamming is deplorable but I would have expected that Warner would have developed/ been counselled in responding in ways other than violence.

  5. Corbyn is a mainstream democratic socialist. He only looks far left to you Boer War , because of your Grouper perspective. Has anyone come up with any definitive anti Semitic comments he has made? By that I do not mean anti Zionist, which is all together different.

  6. Oakeshott I have no sympathy for the grub. No, his wife should be out of bounds, but he started up some horrendous sledging in past series. One player, Stuart Trott was in the middle of a nervous breakdown at the time and he did not let up. Eventually Trott abandoned the tour and had to have treatment. He is universally hated around the cricket world for this reason.

  7. If the WAGs werent there at least they wouldnt have to put up with the shit thrown at them from the away spectators,which they dont deserve.

  8. grimace @ 11.42 am

    You have stated my views and feelings on this issue much better than I could hope to.

    Thanks.

  9. There is no possible way to allow the bat to do the talking when it comes to slut shaming.

    Warner handled it the wrong way though. Instead of ignoring the tormentors, making an official complaint about the abuse of his wife, and then showing everyone he was the bigger person by playing a blinder of a Test, he responded inappropriately with violence and was caught as hatching and executing a plan to deliberately cheat.

  10. CA

    Corbyn is idolized by the Far Lefties on Bludger.

    These are the same folk who refuse to acknowledge that Brexit rode home on a wave of racism and xenophobia fomented by the Faragist neo-nazis. Plus the outrageous lies. Plus the two-faced behaviour of the reacitonaries. Plus the utter spinelessness of Corbyn.

    Three dozen of his own MPs have called him out publicly on his anti-semitism.

    The UK Jewish Community has openly belled his anti-semitic cat.

    Oh, and one other thing. One of the cue words for anti-semites is their very ready recourse to the claim that they are being anti-Zionist.

    But you knew that.

    As for the ‘Grouper’ taunt how very quaint!

  11. Clem Attlee
    I did not know that. This sledging, or verbal abuse would be a better term, should be stamped out. If he did that, then I have little sympathy for Warner.

    But Candace and other partners should not have to put up with slut-shaming because they go and watch their husbands at work.

  12. And still all those who had nice things to say about Corbyn are utterly silent on his anti-semitism.

    These are the very same people who rightly get stuck into Dutton for being a racist.

    Why?

  13. Kyle Griffin
    @kylegriffin1
    ·
    9h
    According to pool reports, Trump spent 6 hours and 52 minutes today at Trump International Golf Club in FL.

    @MikeCarlton01
    ·
    20h
    “And it’s not just the NBN. I’m sorry, so sorry. I’ve let you down on climate change and renewables…Gonski…the republic…a federal ICAC…and so much more. The failure is all mine. Sniff. I’m hoping…I can just …survive that 30th Newspoll…

    We have two entitled white old rich men in power.

  14. Rex:

    I’ve lost count of the number of times I’ve genuinely wondered why a woman chose the partner she chose.

    The best I can rationalise it is thus: one woman’s trash is another woman’s treasure.

  15. Brexit rode home on a wave of racism and xenophobia fomented by the Faragist neo-nazis. Plus the outrageous lies. Plus the two-faced behaviour of the reactionaries. … One of the cue words for anti-semites is their very ready recourse to the claim that they are being anti-Zionist.

    A stream of labels like this obliterates any meaning for me. It’s gobbledegook. Obviously I haven’t been sufficiently tutored in political classifications, but I’m not sorry.

  16. dtt

    ‘However I was trying to actually engage the many here who see feminist issues as the ONLY issues. ‘

    I’m not sure we have anyone on PB who does that.

  17. How can being described as a Grouper be ‘quaint’ when you are a living, breathing example of its insidious presence? Ooh no…. now I’ll be accused of being ‘ anti Grouperist.’ Boer War doing the dirty work of the Tories by spreading their anti Corbyn meme. Last week they were trying to label him as a communist spy, did you argue that too? BTW, Corbyn campaigned for a Remain vote in Brexit, so try to get your facts correct before making your right wing propaganda attacks.

  18. Boerwar @ #1315 Sunday, April 1st, 2018 – 3:55 pm

    CA

    Corbyn is idolized by the Far Lefties on Bludger.

    These are the same folk who refuse to acknowledge that Brexit rode home on a wave of racism and xenophobia fomented by the Faragist neo-nazis. Plus the outrageous lies. Plus the two-faced behaviour of the reacitonaries. Plus the utter spinelessness of Corbyn.

    Three dozen of his own MPs have called him out publicly on his anti-semitism.

    The UK Jewish Community has openly belled his anti-semitic cat.

    Oh, and one other thing. One of the cue words for anti-semites is their very ready recourse to the claim that they are being anti-Zionist.

    But you knew that.

    As for the ‘Grouper’ taunt how very quaint!

    Ahh the Blairites continue to propound their nonsense…

  19. lizzie

    Farage stoked racist hate to ensure that British people voted for Brexit. He lied through his teeth.

    Corbyn did fuck all about either of those things.

    The Tory Party money bags who wanted Brexit because they intend to screw the workers and the environment and those on social security were happy with Farage.

    Corbyn showed fuck all leadership about that as well.

    Corbyn is weak and is right now facing an internal party revolt based on his anti-semitism.

    The Bludgers who supported Corbyn and Brexit have shut up about both.

  20. Lizzie, this is all done by Boer War and Briefly to demonstrate just how terribly clever they are. Jargon, the last refuge of a scoundrel Ha, ha!

  21. Boerwar @ #1327 Sunday, April 1st, 2018 – 4:05 pm

    lizzie

    Farage stoked racist hate to ensure that British people voted for Brexit. He lied through his teeth.

    Corbyn did fuck all about either of those things.

    The Tory Party money bags who wanted Brexit because they intend to screw the workers and the environment and those on social security were happy with Farage.

    Corbyn showed fuck all leadership about that as well.

    Corbyn is weak and is right now facing an internal party revolt based on his anti-semitism.

    The Bludgers who supported Corbyn and Brexit have shut up about both.

    The neo-lib Blairites have no home and boy do they cry about it.

  22. ‘Clem Attlee says:
    Sunday, April 1, 2018 at 4:03 pm

    How can being described as a Grouper be ‘quaint’ when you are a living, breathing example of its insidious presence? Ooh no…. now I’ll be accused of being ‘ anti Grouperist.’ Boer War doing the dirty work of the Tories by spreading their anti Corbyn meme. Last week they were trying to label him as a communist spy, did you argue that too? BTW, Corbyn campaigned for a Remain vote in Brexit, so try to get your facts correct before making your right wing propaganda attacks.’

    LOL.

    Corbyn is wallowing in anti-semitism and your response is shut up about that and to talk about a union movement that disappeared half a century ago! Nice try at deflection. Now about Corbyn’s anti-semitism… same same as Dutton’s racism?

    Or would you rather talk some more about Santa?

    Corbyn’s pissweak Remainerism was notoriously one of the keys to the victory of the British neo-nazis and their fellow travellers.

  23. Now I must admit to being terribly confused by this ‘slut shaming’ thing. It sounds in itself to be insulting. So, if I hear a person calling out a woman for any alleged promiscuous sexual behaviour, am I meant to say “I’m so sorry, he shouldn’t have slut shamed you like that.”? Bizarre label if you ask me.

  24. OC
    ‘Slut shaming’ is like ‘queer’. It has been co-opted, owned and retargetted by the original targets.
    Feminists routinely use ‘slut shaming’ just as gay rights campaigners routinely use ‘queer’.

  25. Oakeshott Country @ #1238 Sunday, April 1st, 2018 – 3:45 pm

    A point I made some days ago. The Candice Warner story is well known, particularly in Rugby playing areas. The slut shamming is deplorable but I would have expected that Warner would have developed/ been counselled in responding in ways other than violence.

    The story was not known chez KayJay at all.

    The Warners will now carry this charming piece of arseholery for the rest of their lives.

    If anybody thinks the children will not suffer then I would like to bottle whatever maintains this illusion.

    Of course the young lady in question has internalized this completely and sadly normal behaviour (by us – the general public).

    I wish the family well.

    I have a always had very high regard for David Warner and now my regard for the family has reached astronomical heights.

    Well done to all of us. For the family to recover from this disgraceful episode will be very difficult and I desperately hope they find a way to get through this with pride and ego intact.

    My determination in this affair:-

    A one match penalty for the three players who have offered themselves up for the delectation of we – the public. (Sounds like a title for an Isaac Asimov story n’est pas :?:).

    I don’t much care for unpaid, unasked and gratuitous marriage guidance counselling either.

    In the meanwhile, good luck to all of us on this Easter weekend. 🕊🕊

  26. Boer War….blah. blah… blah… unions…..blah blah …..socialism…..Corbynism….blah blah blah…..what is the latest Tory meme again? Blah…blah Corbyn is a communist spy…..blah, blah….part of an anti Semitic conspiracy blah blah blah…. no evidence provided blah….blah….Boer War and Briefly have spoken blah blah….why don’t channel 9 put re-runs of Point of View back on? Blah blah… Gerah Henderson could host it, blah blah, he’s not Bob Santamaria, but he’s almost as good…blah blah blah.

  27. lizzie says:
    Sunday, April 1, 2018 at 4:19 pm

    …”Yes, but it’s still April Fool’s Day”…

    Good and good.

  28. Still the utter silence on Corbyn’s anti-semitism by the Left.

    Still the routine criticisms of Dutton for his racism and of Turnbull for his silence on Dutton’s racism.

    But.. on Corbyn’s anti-semitism: silence.

    You are what you walk past.

  29. There has been plenty of blow back over your and Briefly’s anti Labour conspiracy theories. Do you only read your own posts or something?

  30. Kay Jay. Unfortunately both people were in the public eye and not discrete. Notoriety was assured. What is done is done and the family need to have effective defence mechanisms

  31. Speaking of TV, I watched an i.v. with Minister Scullion last night.
    The subject was the report on incarceration of indigenous.

    If I’d had something to throw at the screen I would have. He prevaricated, stepped sideways, kept saying he was a cynic… In sum, it’s all the fault of the states and the C’wealth can’t really do anything even tho it’s their report. Grrr. No spine.

  32. Clem Attlee
    Now you speak for ‘mainstream women’ and ‘mainstream women’ are the ones who are not feminists, in your world.

    Keep digging, mate.

  33. Of course, Adam Carr claimed on Twitter a couple of years ago that he “was driven off Poll Bludger by antisemitism” (and the support for BDS which he called on FB, “odious and hypocritical”)

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