ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor

Labor maintains its commanding lead in the latest ReachTEL poll, as respondents give the thumbs down to company tax cuts.

A ReachTEL poll for Sky News finds Labor maintaining its 54-46 lead from the last such poll a month ago. However, the primary votes are not quite as strong for Labor as last time, when Labor’s two-party lead was subdued by a strong flow of respondent-allocated preferences to the Coalition. This time the Coalition is up one on the primary vote to 34%, while both Labor and the Greens are down a point, to 36% and 10% respectively, and One Nation are steady on 7%.

The poll also finds 56% of respondents opposed to company tax cuts, with only 29% supportive, and only 26% thinking it likely the cuts will be passed on to workers, compared with 68% for unlikely. Not surprisingly, a question on whether Tony Abbott should return as Liberal leader after the next election finds little support, with 25% for yea and 64% for nay.

Together with the Newspoll and Essential Research, the ReachTEL results have been included in the lastest BludgerTrack update, which once again records essentially no change on voting intention, with ReachTEL’s strong result for Labor cancelling out a weak one from Essential Research. However, Labor is up two on the seat projection for Queensland, mostly because Galaxy’s 52-48 lead for the Coalition in that state in a Courier-Mail poll a month ago is no longer exerting its pull. Also included are the latest leadership ratings from Newspoll, which take a small bite out of Malcolm Turnbull’s net approval and preferred prime minister lead. We should have Newspoll’s quarterly state breakdowns next week, which will make the BludgerTrack state breakdowns a little more robust.

If you’re a Crikey subscriber, you can enjoy my piece today on how the recent halt to the rise of minor parties might play out in the Senate over the coming years. Below is a chart I knocked up to illustrate it, which I decided not to use. It combines federal and state election results, so that the reading at any point in time uses results from the most recent elections federally in each state, with each election weighted by its voting population.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,607 comments on “ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor”

Comments Page 26 of 33
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  1. dtt

    I’m not sure anyone has the ‘right’ to slap anyone. It might be understandable when someone does.

    …but I can’t find any evidence that the scenario played out the way you said it did, anyway.

    ‘The footage showing Ahed, Nariman and a cousin, 21-year-old Nur Tamimi, physically confronting the soldier – who did not respond – led to the teenager being hailed as a hero by Palestinians, who saw her as standing up to Israel’s occupation of the West Bank.

    According to the charges, Ahed pushed a number of soldiers and told them, “Get out or I’ll punch you,” before kicking and slapping them.’

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jan/01/ahed-tamimi-palestinian-girl-filmed-slapping-israeli-soldier-is-charged-with-assault

  2. …it also sounds like the kind of behaviour you indulge in when you’re pretty sure the other party won’t respond. And when your mum films you rather than trying to restrain you, that suggests she didn’t think there was much risk, either.

  3. And, right on cue, the Murdoch press in Melbourne headline on their front page “Lazy dole cheats to lose cash”

    No doubt they have a genetic, demeaning and divisive description for me as well

    But no such description for people so arranging their financial affairs to continue to receive a tax refund when they have paid no tax in the first place

    Mind you the headline is not “Criminal phone tapper says lazy dole cheats ….”

  4. Absence of Empathy says:
    Sunday, April 1, 2018 at 12:50 pm
    briefly says:
    Sunday, April 1, 2018 at 12:16 pm

    …”For the record, I have absolutely no intention of answering your call to defend my arguments other than to say we have not been talking about States’…

    .
    I was talking about States, specifically what crimes certain States might be willing to commit against each other in the name of their country, using the veil of a debatable historical ethnicity and/or religion.

    This is obfuscation. You made no mention of State-to-State action. You characterised the event as the murder of a non-kosher (non-Jewish) farmer by their (implicitly) Jewish neighbour. You went on to talk about pig shit, which is taboo in Judaism (as well as Islam, but that seemed to be forgotten).

    In your short story, the Jew is a murderer – perhaps, an executioner – and the non-Jew is killed either for no reason or because they are not also Jewish.

    Examine it. This is pure antisemitic trope.

  6. daretotread. says:
    Sunday, April 1, 2018 at 12:42 pm

    fred….have a closer look at dtt, who resorts to the use of the classics:

    The Israeli – that is, the Jew – is the violent beast who threatens the innocent; the barbaric one who

    seizes babies
    kills children
    rapes or threatens to rape women, specially the young and/or the pretty

    This is rich imagery….

    I think neo-Nazi is a good call.

  7. Zoomster

    If you had just seen your 15 year old cousin shot in the head then you might slap someone too. Actually i think I would cower in a corner sobbing, much too scared to slap anyone, but she did not.

    That sort of defines crazy brave.

  8. Zoomster

    If sexual references were not traded i would eat my hat.

    Gee we cannot keep them off the cricket pitch so at a guess some insolent remarks were made.

    Not that it makes any difference. seeing you cousing shot in the head would make many people slap someone.

    If as you say she was not concerned for her safety it suggests she knew the soldier so she did not fear him. That in a way makes her being charged even worse. if she slapped him because he had betrayed her cousin for example.

  9. Anyhow, time for me to go. I have one parting thought. On Saturday, I posted as follows:

    briefly says:
    Saturday, March 31, 2018 at 1:19 am

    I’ve been thinking a little – and, I admit, only a little – about Easter. If the accounts are correct, the rites of Easter are styled around an act of public human sacrifice – around the ritualised killing of a religious dissident and lecturer.

    In the doctrine, the central figure must be put to death and the killing must serve an end or a reason. It is not enough that an apostate be killed simply for the sake of exemplary punishment or for the protection of clerical power. The death has to serve a divine purpose, a purpose that was known in advance and which had been foretold to the principal agents in the story.

    At the core of the narrative, a ritual killing is invoked in order to illuminate the mysteries of the deity but at the same time, in the telling the killing is transmuted. Death is not death but is the preamble to resurrection and immortality. Blame and loss are turned into forgiveness and redemption. Shame, humiliation and mortal agony become passion and in turn they become salvation. Death is transforming.

    This is a very grim story that is relieved by two extraordinary claims – by the possibility of a triumph over mortality and by a reprieve from sin. We are called on to believe in the redemptive potential of human sacrifice; to believe that with the ordained spilling of the blood of An Outsider, mercy and eternal rest were made possible.

    Christianity requires us to subscribe to a paradox – to a belief in an act of human sacrifice that was both real and which was also not real – that promises a glimpse beyond the mortal and the corporeal. This is the fascinating moment in the story, when violent and unjust death becomes new life, and when the unknowable becomes material.

    I have been thinking a little more over the weekend. If one dos not subscribe to the claims of resurrection – if one is not able to believe in the possibility of mercy – then the execution of Jesus was simply a human sacrifice. It was a “senseless” killing.

    Perhaps this is the real meaning of Easter. In the absence of any possibility of salvation, killing is always senseless. We have innumerable examples of this. In identifying with the execution of one, we can be reminded of all the many, many senseless deaths.

  10. briefly says:
    Sunday, April 1, 2018

    …”This is an attempt at a deflection”…
    …”This is pure antisemitic trope”…
    …”This is rich imagery”…
    …”I think neo-Nazi”…
    …”This is obfuscation”…

    NEW RULE:

    Next person to use the adjectival form of a word when an accusatory verb is more appropriate, loses the argument by default.

    We can call it “Godwin’s Law II”.

  15. Now feminists on here. Where are you on this one. Pretty girl slaps guys face. He is in here home and soldiers have recently killed a cousin. If as probably happened he made some sort of sexual reference (she is a pretty girl) did she have the right to slap him?

    Putting aside the particular context here, I think it’s about time we started teaching our young women that slapping men’s faces in response to some perceived insult is a form of violence and is not ok. If we are going to tell men that it is NEVER acceptable to strike a woman, (except when defending themselves from attack one would presume) why would we not apply the same restraints to women. If men are expected to always be in control of their emotional responses, why should women be given a free licence to assault them whenever they feel they have been offended about something.

    I remember meeting a female writer on gender issues a few years ago. One of the things she taught me that I never forgot is that women can be very good at making men feel bad about themselves when they put their mind to it. Her message to me was that men have to learn to deal with that without indulging in physical violence and for their part women should learn to exercise similar restraint. I have always felt that she was right on both counts.

  16. Rex Douglas says:

    Labour Day should be moved to Easter Monday. Just saying.

    Nah. The Tuesday after Easter Monday makes for an even more glorious long weekend.

  20. dtt (and various others)

    I’m not commenting on the rights and wrongs of the girl’s actions. I’m commenting on dtt’s reporting of them, which doesn’t appear to match what actually happened.

  21. dtt is trying to make this a feminist, ‘me too’ incident. It’s actually more serious than that, and should concern more than just feminists.

  22. poroti @ #1268 Sunday, April 1st, 2018 – 1:58 pm

    To the ramparts ye christian soldiers for the heathens are a comin’ . Circle the wagons and throw another heretic on the fire. ( pay walled)

    Christianity ‘under attack’

    According to Sydney’s Catholic Archbishop,

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/christianity-under-attack-archbishop-anthony-fisher/news-story/f57611b7f62fe1cd3004623d50ab6974

    I’d say he has confused his religious privileges with his religious rights. From the article: “Confession is a privileged encounter between penitent and God; here the Christian enters the silence and secrecy of the Tomb, to be re-Eastered; and no earthly authority may enter there.”

  23. Late Riser @ #1272 Sunday, April 1st, 2018 – 2:09 pm

    poroti @ #1268 Sunday, April 1st, 2018 – 1:58 pm

    To the ramparts ye christian soldiers for the heathens are a comin’ . Circle the wagons and throw another heretic on the fire. ( pay walled)

    Christianity ‘under attack’

    According to Sydney’s Catholic Archbishop,

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/christianity-under-attack-archbishop-anthony-fisher/news-story/f57611b7f62fe1cd3004623d50ab6974

    I’d say he has confused his religious privileges with his religious rights. From the article: “Confession is a privileged encounter between penitent and God; here the Christian enters the silence and secrecy of the Tomb, to be re-Eastered; and no earthly authority may enter there.”

    😆

  24. Bemused,
    Hijacked planes and murdered passengers occupied our screens for days at time. I was young but I remember the time when you worried more about hijacking than crashing. Then along came those mobs of ‘freedom fighters’. Oh, and trains too.

  25. As suspected it has jumped The Ditch from NZ and arrived in Australia. Some Bludgers in the general area of this.

    It’s only natural: the push to give rivers, mountains and forests legal rights

    On 20 March a community rally on the Margaret river south of Perth called for the river to be recognised as a legal entity with the local council as its custodian. Under the banner “Is it time to give our river rights?”, more than 100 people discussed ways of protecting the river, prompted by plans for a mountain-bike and walking track along the foreshore. A river advocate, Ray Swarts, says a rights-of-nature approach has majority support in the council.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/apr/01/its-only-natural-the-push-to-give-rivers-mountains-and-forests-legal-rights

  26. zoomster @ #1270 Sunday, April 1st, 2018 – 2:05 pm

    dtt is trying to make this a feminist, ‘me too’ incident. It’s actually more serious than that, and should concern more than just feminists.

    Yes Zoomster I fully agree

    However I was trying to actually engage the many here who see feminist issues as the ONLY issues. Whatever way you look at it she was a brave girl for standing up to the invaders.

    Yes maybe there was no sexual allusion – she was just angry that her home was invaded and her cousin murdered.
    Not sure what difference it makes.

    I notice you have avoided my French Resistance question

  27. poroti

    Wow! At last a different approach instead of treating all nature as human property. At first glance it will be ridiculed by (may I suggest) the Liberal capitalists.

    So who’s going to speak up for the Murray-Darling?

  28. poroti:

    My first thought when I heard that was what about traditional owners, where do they sit in such a framework? But apparently Kimberley TOs are also looking at legal personhood laws for some of their country. Very interesting.

    Traditional owners along the Kimberley’s Fitzroy river are also looking at ways to create legal personhood for their river. Their 2016 Fitzroy river declaration recognises the river as a living ancestral being with a right to life, and includes traditional owners’ obligation to protect the river for current and future generations. A traditional custodian and scientist, Dr Anne Poelina, says it’s “the first time in Australia that both first law and the inherent rights of nature have been explicitly recognised in a negotiated instrument”. This month community members urged the new Labor state government to uphold their pre-election commitment to the declaration.

  29. Another Labor (Gillard) initiative.

    The report, ‘Restore the Soil: Prosper the Nation’ is the third by Major General Jeffery in his five year tenure as the National Soil Advocate, since being appointed by former Prime Minister Julia Gillard.

    He presented his latest study to the current Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and Agriculture and Water Resources Minister David Littleproud who will now take it to his state ministerial colleagues for their consideration, of its strategic suggestions.

    Its top recommendation calls for agreement on a national soils policy with the objective of maintaining and restoring the health of the Australian agricultural landscape through a coordinated and integrated approach.

    That approach would involve a collective effort – rather than operating in political silos – from all of the responsible ministerial portfolios across governments in agriculture, environment, health, education, defence, Australian aid, indigenous affairs, regional development and industry.

    “The policy will recognise Australia’s soil, water and vegetation as key national natural strategic assets, better support our 130,000 farmers as stewards of about 60 per cent of the Australian continent, and seek to reconnect urban Australians with their rural roots through establishing school gardens in every primary and junior high school through the National Curriculum,” the report said.

    http://www.farmonline.com.au/story/5316091/australian-on-farm-ecological-work-largely-invisible-to-public/?cs=5706

  30. lizzie

    A precedent was set in NZ a year ago.

    Whanganui River gets the rights of a legal person

    The Whanganui River has gained its own legal identity with all the corresponding rights, duties and liabilities of a legal person.

    Te Awa Tupua (Whanganui River Claims Settlement) Bill, which passed its third reading in Parliament on Wednesday, will establish a new legal framework for the river.

    It recognised the river as an indivisible and living whole from the mountains to the sea.

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/90488008/Whanganui-River-gets-the-rights-of-a-legal-person

  32. poroti

    A precedent? Pah! What OzLiberal ever took notice of a precedent?
    Evidence: the VicLib pseudo-christians who trashed the tradition of pairing.

  35. It was a full moon last night. Huge it was. Poll Bludger seems to have celebrated by endless pontificating on the vexed Israel-Palistine question. DDT appears to have lead the way. Christ that has given my right index finger the cramps scrolling through the mire. …

  36. lizzie

    True but the NZ legal system , as in Australia, was based on the Pomgolian one so there is a chance the same legal arguments used over there can be used here.

  37. Andrew_Earlwood @ #1284 Sunday, April 1st, 2018 – 3:17 pm

    It was a full moon last night. Huge it was. Poll Bludger seems to have celebrated by endless pontificating on the vexed Israel-Palaitine question. DDT appears to have lead the way. Christ that has given my right index finger the cramps scrolling through the mire. …

    Just a tad more important than the great sandpaper crisis of 2018.

    Actually Andrew that sort of attitude is a wee bit despicable.

    17 people died this week.

  38. Fresh concerns have been raised about the treatment of inmates at Perth’s Bandyup Prison after a woman gave birth alone in her cell, despite calls for help.

    The woman, whose age is not being released to protect her privacy, was 36 weeks pregnant when she gave birth last month, alone and without pain relief, after staff were unable to open her cell door.
    …
    It comes after concerns were raised last week when it was revealed a 20-year-old woman was transported from the prison to a mental health facility while she was naked, bleeding from menstruation, and in severe distress.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-04-01/perth-prisoner-gives-birth-in-jail-cell/9608478

  42. I reckon Hamas would have been saying in private over that 17 people “job done”.

    Puffy was right – a pox on both their houses.

    It never ceases to amaze me how western proxies enable the bad behaviour of all sides. Frankly sandpaper gate is way more deserving of our attention.

  43. More good news.

    The disadvantaged state school in Melbourne’s south-east doesn’t just enrol students, it enrols families.

    It’s a one-stop shop, with an award-winning early learning centre, short courses for parents, community and volunteer programs, doctors, psychologists, paediatricians, fitness classes, playgroups, employment services and hundreds of extra-curricular activities.

    Now the pioneering model, which is a partnership between the Colman Foundation and the state government, is being expanded to another 10 disadvantaged Victorian schools. These include Morwell Central Primary School, Seymour College, Carlton Primary School, Robinvale P-12 and Bridgewood Primary School.

    The Colman Foundation and its philanthropic partners have committed $30 million over the next decade to make this a reality.

    It also donated $1.8 million to help build Doveton College, which opened in 2012, and is spending $500,000 a year on its support services.

    Philanthropist and retired businessman Julius Colman said the initiative — which is called Our Place — transforms schools into community hubs.

    “We hunt down all the services and try to deliver them in an ordered, wraparound way, rather than a piecemeal way,” he said.

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/classes-playgroups-and-confidence-the-one-stop-shop-for-families-20180330-p4z73o.html

  44. So we finally find out what caused Warner to go ape-shit over the sledging remarks.

    An emotional Candice Warner says she blames herself for her husband’s role in the ball-tampering fiasco that has torn apart the Australian cricket team.

    In a grubby move by some South African supporters, Candice found herself the target of sledging during the current Test series under way in South Africa.

    Supporters wore Sonny Bill Williams masks during the second Test, in a reference to Candice’s drunken sexual tryst in a toilet with the rugby league star that was caught on camera back in 2007.
    And, it’s believed the incident was raised during the stairwell stoush between Quinton de Kock and Warner in the first test that saw Warner fined $13,500.

    “I feel like it’s all my fault and it’s killing me, it’s absolutely killing me,” Candice told News Corp.

    https://thewest.com.au/sport/cricket/ball-tampering-scandal-emotional-candice-warner-blames-herself-ng-b88791864z

  46. Candice Warner is not to blame for this and I hope someone tells her that. She is naturally feeling to blame, but for her well-being she needs to understand it is not her fault. Something should be done about spectators slut-shaming partners of the cricketers on the field. Kicking out and banning would be a good start.

  48. I think its about time all these WAGs stayed at home during these away series.Im sure at some point in the past this wasnt allowed.

  49. I agree that spectators who abuse family of players should be ejected. But I also think Warner should’ve been the bigger man when the Saffers led him on and ignored them.

  50. steve davis @ #1298 Sunday, April 1st, 2018 – 1:34 pm

    I think its about time all these WAGs stayed at home during these away series.Im sure at some point in the past this wasnt allowed.

    They started allowing family to travel because the players are away from home for so long and if their families weren’t with them they would hardly see them.

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