Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Labor’s lead halves in the latest Essential poll, although it also finds opinion evenly divided on dividend imputation.

As reported by The Guardian, the latest fortnightly poll from Essential Research shifts in favour of the Coalition, who now trail Labor 52-48 compared with 54-46 in the last poll. While this fits the narrative of Labor taking a hit from dividend imputation better than Newspoll, Essential’s question on the subject produces a better result for Labor than Newspoll’s, with 32% supportive and 30% opposed (compared with 33% and 50% from Newspoll). Primary votes and full report to follow later.

UPDATE: Full report here. As with two-party, the Coalition is up two on the primary vote, to 38%, and Labor down two, to 36%, with the Greens steady on 9% and One Nation steady on 8%.

I believe the mystery of Newspoll’s and Essential’s different numbers on dividend imputation is solved: Essential’s question was preceded by another on how many people were beneficiaries of the existing policy (16% received a tax deduction, 10% a cash payment), which explained how the existing policy works and how much it costs. This is unfortunate in my view, because it put respondents on a different footing from the general population. Some of the “statements about imputation credits” that respondents were invited to agree or disagree with also seem a bit leading (“paying people money to compensate for tax they haven’t paid does not make sense”), although in this case it doesn’t affect the responses to the more important question of support or opposition to the policy, as it came later in the survey.

The poll also canvasses opinion on what other tax policies respondents might support or oppose, and as usual it finds that the public heavily favours a more redistributive approach (class war and the politics of envy, if you will). Nonetheless, 40% favour cutting the company tax rate to 25%, with 30% opposed. Twenty-six per cent trust Labor more to manage a fair tax system, 28% the Coalition, and 31% no difference. Only 7% reckon Australia’s gun laws too strict, 25% think them too weak, and 62% say they are about right. A series of questions on Facebook finds 79% agreeing it should be more regulated, with 12% disagreeing, but 45% finding Facebook “generally a force for good”, with 37% disagreeing.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,623 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 32 of 33
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  1. Barney:

    I’m sure Smith and Warner will be welcomed with opened arms into the Ch9 commentary team. Bonus these days with Ch9 is that you don’t even have to be good at commentating to get a high paying gig there.

    I feel sorry for Bancroft however, and hope that he is able to resurrect his international career playing for Australia.

  2. guytaur @ #1549 Thursday, March 29th, 2018 – 4:10 pm

    A big thank you to Shadow Attorney General @markdreyfusQCMP for making it out of APH and down to Politics in the Pub last night!

    A night of enthusiastic & engaging conversation around politics, National ICAC, and what proposed changes to charities legislation could mean for Aus https://twitter.com/TheAusInstitute/status/979223990244814848/video/1

    Good to see Labor still promising an ICAC. No wonder they are in front in polling. Good sensible policies.

    Does their version of an ICAC actually have teeth ?

  3. The level of viciousness towards me (and Pegasus) is really unacceptable for decent people but I have long since realised that few of you are “gentlemen” but far more of you are wannabe thugs.

    dtt, both you and Pegasus give as good as you get, up there on the ‘viciousness’ scale with myself and anyone else here. Neither of you deserve special treatment. Maybe if you both stopped being so snarky and abusive and condescending then others may go easier on you as a natural consequence? Just a thought. 🙂

  4. RexWith Dreyfus in charge I would expect it to.

    Labor has far more to win than lose with an effective ICAC properly funded. That is with real teeth.

    NSW has proved that. After Obeid Labor is gaining a wining election lead.

    Thats even after the LNP cut the NSW ICAC teeth.

    Thats Labor’s worst case scenario. Its turning out to be a long term winner for them.

    The result is the NSW right has lots less influence on Federal Labor than in the past as their dirty tricks are less and less accepted in the party.

    I am sure Cat can tell you far more about how Labor is improving in NSW than I can.

  5. Rod_Hagen‏ @Rod_Hagen · 21h21 hours ago

    Did I REALLY just see @abcnews put a “Daniel Andrews” tag under Bill Shorten speaking? Oh dear, they really do have a serious shortage of sub-ed’s, eh! Or is it deliberate tomfoolery as some say?

  6. Confessions @ #1550 Thursday, March 29th, 2018 – 12:12 pm

    Barney:

    I’m sure Smith and Warner will be welcomed with opened arms into the Ch9 commentary team. Bonus these days with Ch9 is that you don’t even have to be good at commentating to get a high paying gig there.

    I feel sorry for Bancroft however, and hope that he is able to resurrect his international career playing for Australia.

    Why shouldn’t they be allowed to play after serving their penalty if they wish?

  7. Victoria says:
    Thursday, March 29, 2018 at 4:20 pm

    How funny. Imagine that Tom Switzer who is a right winger calling out RussiaPhobes. You really gotta laugh……..

    Yup, there is nothing remotely leftish about Putinocracy.

  8. victoria:

    That is truly funny!

    ‘Yes it’s true that Putin is a thug and commands an authoritarian military regime, but hey, what’s not to love about a little guided democracy.’

    Sheesh!

  9. @annachang Every checkout is open at Coles. It’s like the 90s in there. Call me crazy but it’s almost as if *more customers* not lower company tax rates would create more checkout jobs. ‍♀️

  10. Zoidlord @ #1547 Thursday, March 29th, 2018 – 1:01 pm

    Sky News Australia
    ‏Verified account @SkyNewsAust
    36s36 seconds ago

    EXCLUSIVE: A Sky News/ReachTEL poll has found @AustralianLabor leads @LiberalAus/@The_Nationals 54 per cent to 46 per cent two party preferred. @TurnbullMalcolm prevails over @billshortenmp as preferred Prime Minister, 52 per cent to 48 per cent.

    Well 54-46

    Sounds like LNP failure.

    Glad to see Essential at 48-52 is an outlier.

  11. adrian @ #1541 Thursday, March 29th, 2018 – 2:49 pm

    All these absolutes. You’re beginning to sound like briefly.

    Things are rarely 100% or 0% in reality.

    Only a couple of absolutes. And those are starting from the assumption that Australia isn’t formally advising people “hey, get on a boat and come here, it’s great” and that in fact the formal advice is more like “don’t get on a boat and come here, it’s dangerous and illegal and you’ll be deported”.

    Assuming that to be true, anyone choosing to illegally enter Australia is accountable to themselves for whatever happens during the seaward portion of their journey. Or if someone has accepted compensation in exchange for enabling an illegal entry, then that person is accountable for delivering a safe and effective illegal entry.

    But Australia is a third-party to the person choosing illegal entry and to any person(s) they choose to engage for assistance. Australia has said “don’t do this”. So it’s a stretch to argue that Australia then owes any responsibility whatsoever towards people that doesn’t listen. And just plain tortured logic to extend that further by arguing that Australia’s culpability runs so deep as to justify deliberately torturing some people so as to make a public deterrent to others.

  12. This will change his vote for sure. Idiot Truffles.

    Kimberley Kitching
    @kimbakit
    Bungling PMTurnbull & sad-clowns @Coalition_Media spit dummy after failing to win independent Senator Tim Storer’s support for $65B unfunded big company tax cuts then give “dirt file” on Senator to Press Gallery
    predictable & inept #auspol https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/alp-links-189vote-senator-tim-storer-blocking-tax-reform/news-story/6a6335b77118c448d888676e8b94ba1b

    4:18 AM – Mar 29, 2018
    78
    109 people are talking about this

  13. I am sure Cat can tell you far more about how Labor is improving in NSW than I can.

    I’m C@t, and I’m here to help! 🙂

    Actually, there’s so little going on these days it’s getting boring! 😀

  14. Confessions @ #1550 Thursday, March 29th, 2018 – 4:12 pm

    Barney:

    I’m sure Smith and Warner will be welcomed with opened arms into the Ch9 commentary team. Bonus these days with Ch9 is that you don’t even have to be good at commentating to get a high paying gig there.

    I feel sorry for Bancroft however, and hope that he is able to resurrect his international career playing for Australia.

    I’m in the once they do their time then they should be able to resume their career cart.

    The penalties imposed by CA are about right imho.

    They were probably loaded a bit given Smith’s clumsy attempt to involve others in the decision and the fact that they were using sandpaper and not tape as was claimed by the perps.

    Warner has gone on social media and apologised. He’s announced he’ll be making further announcements in a week or so. My guess is he’ll be going the charm way with lots of kids clinics etc. I presume Bancroft and Smith will do the same.

    As for Leadership. The Captain of the Team carries the culture and has to make good decisions under pressure. You have to say both Smith and Warner failed those tests miserably. However, a year off and plenty of time visiting the room of mirrors might see them emerge as better people.

    The road to redemption requires contrition, remorse and a genuine effort to reform themselves. Hopefully they can do that and I believe Australians and Cricket fans will applaud them if they can succeed.

    Whether they can do it is impossible to judge at this time. We’ll all just have to wait until the end of their punishment period.

  15. poroti @ #1569 Thursday, March 29th, 2018 – 4:31 pm

    This will change his vote for sure. Idiot Truffles.

    Kimberley Kitching
    @kimbakit
    Bungling PMTurnbull & sad-clowns @Coalition_Media spit dummy after failing to win independent Senator Tim Storer’s support for $65B unfunded big company tax cuts then give “dirt file” on Senator to Press Gallery
    predictable & inept #auspol https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/alp-links-189vote-senator-tim-storer-blocking-tax-reform/news-story/6a6335b77118c448d888676e8b94ba1b

    4:18 AM – Mar 29, 2018
    78
    109 people are talking about this

    Yeah, grubby politics and not a good look because so obvious in it’s intent.

  16. guytaur says:
    Thursday, March 29, 2018 at 12:50 pm
    DTT

    On Nato. Yes the US thinking dominates. To change that a united EU would have more of a voice and more of an influence on Nato than the US does now.

    Thats Putin’s mistake with trying to divide Europe. He should have gone for dividing Europe from the US.

    The US nuclear shield is invaluable in strategic terms to the European states. If you’re arguing the US should not provide strategic protection to Europe – either because the Europeans reject the US or the US abandons Europe – then the Europeans would have to create their own strategic nuclear capability. Since France and the UK possess nuclear technologies, this would readily achievable.

    However, to call for the dismemberment of NATO is in effect also to call for nuclear proliferation in Europe. That would be a profoundly destabilising and counter-productive development. anyone who wishes for continued peace in Europe would reject that idea.

    As I have pointed out several times while a-bludging here, we have seen 70-odd years of nuclear peace. This is counter-intuitive, perhaps, but it is the reality. The post-war architecture has served Europe very well. It should be defended and strengthened, not least because its opponents seek to break it up.

    Very notably, NATO poses no territorial threat to the Russian Republic and has not called for Russian disarmament. It has, however, called for Russia to observe international law…which is something that is absolutely consistent with Australia’s own security and economic interests, as we can see from events and developments in our own region.

  17. Putin only cheated the presidential system limit to get in again forever more , and he murders his political opponents, or stops them from participating in the elections.

    But hey whats their not to love about him hey!!!

    Ive no problem with Russia, but it’s government is one of the most rotten, the people deserve better!

  18. a r @ #1568 Thursday, March 29th, 2018 – 4:31 pm

    adrian @ #1541 Thursday, March 29th, 2018 – 2:49 pm

    All these absolutes. You’re beginning to sound like briefly.

    Things are rarely 100% or 0% in reality.

    Only a couple of absolutes. And those are starting from the assumption that Australia isn’t formally advising people “hey, get on a boat and come here, it’s great” and that in fact the formal advice is more like “don’t get on a boat and come here, it’s dangerous and illegal and you’ll be deported”.

    Assuming that to be true, anyone choosing to illegally enter Australia is accountable to themselves for whatever happens during the seaward portion of their journey. Or if someone has accepted compensation in exchange for enabling an illegal entry, then that person is accountable for delivering a safe and effective illegal entry.

    But Australia is a third-party to the person choosing illegal entry and to any person(s) they choose to engage for assistance. Australia has said “don’t do this”. So it’s a stretch to argue that Australia then owes any responsibility whatsoever towards people that doesn’t listen. And just plain tortured logic to extend that further by arguing that Australia’s culpability runs so deep as to justify deliberately torturing some people so as to make a public deterrent to others.

    It’s not illegal to seek asylum. All the rest of your blather extends from this false premise.

    Maybe you should ascertain if we are a signatory to the Refugee Convention and then check out Article 31. Then finally admit that you are wrong, and stop sounding like a RWNJ.

  19. Briefly

    I was not arguing agaist Nato. I was just pointing out what the EU did in response to Russian claims of a threat.

    Without Nato we could have had WW3 by now.

    I was just talking about how the EU should have consilidated first before expanding. With a view on why they expanded for strategic diplomatic reasons. As I see it anyway

  20. C@tmomma says:
    Thursday, March 29, 2018 at 4:37 pm

    poroti @ #1569 Thursday, March 29th, 2018 – 4:31 pm

    This will change his vote for sure. Idiot Truffles.

    Kimberley Kitching
    @kimbakit
    Bungling PMTurnbull & sad-clowns @Coalition_Media spit dummy after failing to win independent Senator Tim Storer’s support for $65B unfunded big company tax cuts then give “dirt file” on Senator to Press Gallery
    predictable & inept #auspol https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/alp-links-189vote-senator-tim-storer-blocking-tax-reform/news-story/6a6335b77118c448d888676e8b94ba1b

    4:18 AM – Mar 29, 2018
    78
    109 people are talking about this

    Yeah, grubby politics and not a good look because so obvious in it’s intent.

    No doubt of the intent, but they could not find much dirt, could they?

  21. adrian says:
    Thursday, March 29, 2018 at 4:43 pm
    a r @ #1568 Thursday, March 29th, 2018 – 4:31 pm

    adrian @ #1541 Thursday, March 29th, 2018 – 2:49 pm

    All these absolutes. You’re beginning to sound like briefly.

    ar is a voice of reason. It’s very kind of Adrian to find a similarity. Cheers, Adrian.

  22. Yeah cheers briefly.
    Maybe you should check out the Refugee Convention as well if you think that that right wing diatribe of which Cory Bernardi would be proud is the ‘voice of reason’.

  23. Smith et al can’t play Shield cricket during their suspension so they will have a very extended lay off. Warner could easily just play 20 20s where his winning personality is less likely to cause his team mates to off him.

  24. OH just arrived home and opened the mail. 4 letters containing dividend statements. They indicated there was a little over $1,000 of franking credits and OH asked if OH would no longer get them. I said it was only Labor policy and they had to win the next election to act on it.

    ‘That’s it I’m voting Liberal.’ Was the response.

  25. guytaur says:
    Thursday, March 29, 2018 at 4:45 pm
    Briefly

    I was not arguing agaist Nato. I was just pointing out what the EU did in response to Russian claims of a threat.

    Without Nato we could have had WW3 by now.

    I was just talking about how the EU should have consilidated first before expanding. With a view on why they expanded for strategic diplomatic reasons. As I see it anyway

    The economic, social, legal and political development of Europe is a long work in progress. Considering the history of uneven economic, technical and political development in the Imperial era (roughly, through the 18th and 19th centuries) and the culmination of Imperialist competition in the military calamities of the first half of the 20th century, the progress of the last 70 years has been really remarkable.

    The neo-Fa, the chauvinists, the racists and the reactionaries all hate it. The Fakes and the Putinists hate it too, and attack it on the spurious grounds that modern Europe is a neo-Lib conspiracy. This is pure nonsense.

  26. adrian says:
    Thursday, March 29, 2018 at 4:49 pm

    Yeah cheers briefly.
    Maybe you should check out the Refugee Convention as well if you think that that right wing diatribe of which Cory Bernardi would be proud is the ‘voice of reason’.

    Oh, I am under no illusions about the facts and the politics of asylum-seekers, Adrian. I’ve been a consistent voice on this. Come to think of it, it’s a subject on which “Adrian” is usually quite reticent…. not that it matters..

    You might think that to compare “ar” and “briefly” is to insult them. I take it as a compliment. Thanks.

  27. PeeBee @ #1582 Thursday, March 29th, 2018 – 3:53 pm

    OH just arrived home and opened the mail. 4 letters containing dividend statements. They indicated there was a little over $1,000 of franking credits and OH asked if OH would no longer get them. I said it was only Labor policy and they had to win the next election to act on it.

    ‘That’s it I’m voting Liberal.’ Was the response.

    Anyone willing to trade $1000.00 for the rest of the Lib’s policies sounds petty and selfish to me, but I’m a rude grumpy Vogon.

  28. briefly @ #1585 Thursday, March 29th, 2018 – 5:02 pm

    adrian says:
    Thursday, March 29, 2018 at 4:49 pm

    Yeah cheers briefly.
    Maybe you should check out the Refugee Convention as well if you think that that right wing diatribe of which Cory Bernardi would be proud is the ‘voice of reason’.

    Oh, I am under no illusions about the facts and the politics of asylum-seekers, Adrian. I’ve been a consistent voice on this. Come to think of it, it’s a subject on which “Adrian” is usually quite reticent…. not that it matters..

    You might think that to compare “ar” and “briefly” is to insult them. I take it as a compliment. Thanks.

    You miss the point by a country mile, but whatever. Have a great Easter break! I intend to.

    And just FYI, just because I don’t rabbit on about it on an anonymous blog, doesn’t mean I don’t make a more concrete contribution in other ways. Not that it matters…

  29. Hey Briefly, what’s remotely ‘left wing’ about you? I think you’re the fake. You’re also the master of putting up straw men arguments. i. e. “there’s nothing remotely leftish about Putinocracy.” Who said there was? You must enjoy conducting arguments in an echo chamber? Most amusing.

  30. Back on the cricket, the Umpires found no damage to the ball which was not changed and there was no 5 run penalty – and the game was not called off as has happened in other such incidences

    Not that it is any excuse but the sandpaper you used to use on your bat was the finest available because all you looked to do was take the marks off

  31. daretotread

    The name you were looking for earlier this afternoon is the Visegrád Group, comprising Poland, Czechia, Slovakia and Hungary. Visegrád is a town in Hungary and the scene of a summit held in 1991 of Poland, Hungary and Czechoslovakia.

  32. Ohhh….whatever my credentials are I do not feel any obligation to present them to someone who uses anti-Semitic jibes to defend Jeremy Corbyn.

    Clem…..GFY.

  33. ‘Anyone willing to trade $1000.00 for the rest of the Lib’s policies sounds petty and selfish to me, but I’m a rude grumpy Vogon.’

    I suppose it is immediate and personal. Any other policy on both sides seem more remote.

    Everyone votes for selfish reasons. Some people are selfish as they would prefer a better hospital system. Others vote selfishly for more military expenditure as they see this as important. Etc.


  34. PeeBee (Block)
    Thursday, March 29th, 2018 – 4:53 pm
    Comment #1583

    OH just arrived home and opened the mail. 4 letters containing dividend statements. They indicated there was a little over $1,000 of franking credits and OH asked if OH would no longer get them. I said it was only Labor policy and they had to win the next election to act on it.

    ‘That’s it I’m voting Liberal.’ Was the response.

    You will still get them; you will not be able to use them if you have no tax to offset them against.
    If the Liberals got their tax cuts through then you would get less as they reflect the tax the company has paid.

    If you have a taxable income your wife is voting in ignorance.

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