As reported by The Guardian, the latest fortnightly poll from Essential Research shifts in favour of the Coalition, who now trail Labor 52-48 compared with 54-46 in the last poll. While this fits the narrative of Labor taking a hit from dividend imputation better than Newspoll, Essential’s question on the subject produces a better result for Labor than Newspoll’s, with 32% supportive and 30% opposed (compared with 33% and 50% from Newspoll). Primary votes and full report to follow later.
UPDATE: Full report here. As with two-party, the Coalition is up two on the primary vote, to 38%, and Labor down two, to 36%, with the Greens steady on 9% and One Nation steady on 8%.
I believe the mystery of Newspoll’s and Essential’s different numbers on dividend imputation is solved: Essential’s question was preceded by another on how many people were beneficiaries of the existing policy (16% received a tax deduction, 10% a cash payment), which explained how the existing policy works and how much it costs. This is unfortunate in my view, because it put respondents on a different footing from the general population. Some of the “statements about imputation credits” that respondents were invited to agree or disagree with also seem a bit leading (“paying people money to compensate for tax they haven’t paid does not make sense”), although in this case it doesn’t affect the responses to the more important question of support or opposition to the policy, as it came later in the survey.
The poll also canvasses opinion on what other tax policies respondents might support or oppose, and as usual it finds that the public heavily favours a more redistributive approach (class war and the politics of envy, if you will). Nonetheless, 40% favour cutting the company tax rate to 25%, with 30% opposed. Twenty-six per cent trust Labor more to manage a fair tax system, 28% the Coalition, and 31% no difference. Only 7% reckon Australia’s gun laws too strict, 25% think them too weak, and 62% say they are about right. A series of questions on Facebook finds 79% agreeing it should be more regulated, with 12% disagreeing, but 45% finding Facebook “generally a force for good”, with 37% disagreeing.
Don
You may remember these discussions happened before in the Hawke Keating era of government.
Its where ideas of paid paternity leave for both parents came into being. Same with Job Share.
The problems have all been the employers resisting the human factor and running a neo liberal model.
I do not describe the Hawke Keating government as living in La La Land
What really peeves me about the whole cricket imbroglio is the way it’s all dressed up as symptomatic of the moral decline of our society. Christ, as First Dog points out, in 1983 Kim Hughes took a cricket team on a rebel tour of South Africa.
Guytaur
I rather think the EU is a doomed experiment. pity because it seemed the great white hope 15 years ago, but now I think is doomed to collapse.
The rapid expansion to the East (again in an effort to contain Russia) has led to inclusion of too many weak economies and also to nations who do not share the “democratic” principles or history of Western Europe.
The initial Euro group of France, Germany, the low countries made sense (Italy was a bit of a stretch), but essentially they had a similar level of development and outlook on the world. Corruption was not common.
Extending to the UK and Ireland was no great problem either.
Extending in the 80s was also by and large positive although the PIGS have always been a drag on the EU.
However the further expansion east was way, way too early. These countries needed a generation to stabilise in their post communist phase – to establsih democracies, stabilise the market economy and set in place systematic rules to ensure, democracy, civil rights and to minimise corruption and nepotism. It was way way too early and now we see the problem of the potential expulsion of Poland for failure to maintain judicial independence etc.
Moreover Poland despite its size is still an EU mendicant state such that once the UK leaves it will be an impossibly large burden for Germany to shoulder. The recent demand by Poland for WWII reparations from Germany will not help matters.
My prediction is that over the next 10 years, Greece, Italy, Hungary, Austria and Poland will leave the EU. Probably the other Polish block countries will too. They have a block name starting with V but I cannot recall just which ones they are
Buildings aren’t expensive, people are.
If you’re going to stagger school times (which, in theory, I agree with) you have to find a workforce which is willing to work, say, 2 pm to 8 pm, whilst the rest of the world – including teachers’ families – are still doing 9-5.
Moreover, this would mean that (in most cases) the parents of senior students would only see them between 9pm and bedtime (because the whole point is to allow senior students to sleep in past 9 am).
guytaur says:
Thursday, March 29, 2018 at 1:15 pm
Don
You may remember these discussions happened before in the Hawke Keating era of government.
Its where ideas of paid paternity leave for both parents came into being. Same with Job Share.
The problems have all been the employers resisting the human factor and running a neo liberal model.
I do not describe the Hawke Keating government as living in La La Land
Now tell me how that relates to kids’ Saturday sport.
Handwaving is your specialty, but it cuts no ice with the sports coaches.
Ohhhh, dtt, I have never called you a moron, a racist, a bully, a grouper or described you in perjoratively gendered terms.
My objections to your bludging are not personal. They go to the content of your arguments.
I have called you a Putinographer and a Putinophone. You are these things. They’re not insults. They are good descriptions.
Your arguments are utterly without merit….but this is not my fault. It’s yours.
DTT
I agree with you on the Eastern states joining the EU. However it was the West finding a way to avoid extending Nato right to the border of Russia. This of course was mistaken on a number of fronts not least the joining Nato bit.
don @ #1438 Thursday, March 29th, 2018 – 12:07 pm
After a battery failure my car clock is now 28 minutes slow. No idea how to fix it.
Guytaur,
The Confederate States of Europe?
Barney in Go Dau @ #1447 Thursday, March 29th, 2018 – 1:15 pm
Has it got an ash-tray?
zoomster says:
Thursday, March 29, 2018 at 1:17 pm
Buildings aren’t expensive, people are.
If you’re going to stagger school times (which, in theory, I agree with) you have to find a workforce which is willing to work, say, 2 pm to 8 pm, whilst the rest of the world – including teachers’ families – are still doing 9-5.
Moreover, this would mean that (in most cases) the parents of senior students would only see them between 9pm and bedtime (because the whole point is to allow senior students to sleep in past 9 am).
Totally agree, but what runs the school timetable is school bus timetables.
Bags not picking my teenagers up at after 8pm from school because the bus company won’t run a bus because it is not economic.
don
I understand that they have staggered school times in some areas of America, because the bus companies prefer to run staggered bus runs rather than employ more bus drivers!
antonbruckner11 @ #1451 Thursday, March 29th, 2018 – 9:16 am
That’s how we got Mike Haysman as a commentator in South Africa, he was on that tour. 🙂
bemused @ #1459 Thursday, March 29th, 2018 – 9:21 am
Unfortunately not!! 🙂
And with regard to teenagers starting late, we’ve heard about teenagers who don’t like daylight saving because they could go out on their boards in the surf before school (still happens on the coast opposite here, 200 km away at Woopi) – they don’t seem to have read the scientific literature that says they should still be in bed instead of catching a wave before school.
And (shades of cardboard boxes in middle of t’road) when I was a lad at high school I had to get up at 6.30 am to cut my dad’s lunch. Told him he should cut it the night before and put it in the fridge, told me I had to do it anyhow, but when I left home, guess what, he cut it the night before and put it in the fridge.
Is it registered for use on the roads?
Yeah of course. It’s only 52 years old.
zoomster @ #1452 Thursday, March 29th, 2018 – 12:17 pm
Sorta like Asian societies
School in China and Vietnam and i think Malaysia starts at 7 AM and the kids do not get home until 9 PM.In Japan the school hrs are shorter but most go to cram school also.
Don
It relates in not thinking we have to have 9 to 5 hour working days in offices.
We can have different hours. An early morning shift and an afternoon shift. For starters this reduces congestions as not everyone commutes to the city at the same time. We also don’t need large offices. We can have many offices in many suburbs instead.
Our society is changing. Its slow but its happening. Just look at the shops opening now in Sydney. They are small not huge floor spaces. Its no longer assumed people travel to the city to shop.
The NSW government which is not a Labor one is working on the 30 minute commute to the city.
These changes are happening today. Not some La La Land in the future.
Sporting fixtures are assumed to have large crowds to make money. Thats because of large expensive stadiums.
Schools do not need large expensive stadiums. Just sports grounds. They already have phys ed classes during the week. Now schools are starting to combine sports ground offsite or offering their sports grounds to be available to the public.
The use of sports grounds is not set in stone except by the schools 9 to 5 style legacy curriculum.
If my 2 minutes is still running, I’m going to add full stops and paragraphs. Looking at you, Observer.
zoomster @ #1461 Thursday, March 29th, 2018 – 9:23 am
Myanmar has been doing this for a long time, young kids in the mornings, older ones in the afternoons, same buildings.
So you get the traffic problems with the parent drops 4 times a day!!
It can be crazy in Yangon at these times!!! 🙂
zoomster says:
Thursday, March 29, 2018 at 1:23 pm
don
I understand that they have staggered school times in some areas of America, because the bus companies prefer to run staggered bus runs rather than employ more bus drivers!
I’m sure you are right for that clientele, but around here the total number of students on rural bus runs is so small that it is not a factor.
For example there is one bus run on the Old Inverell Rd and points west, and it carries all the primary and secondary students with room to spare, the bus is less than half full.
My car does have seat belts.
Now.
Barney in Go Dau says:
Thursday, March 29, 2018 at 1:28 pm
zoomster @ #1461 Thursday, March 29th, 2018 – 9:23 am
don
I understand that they have staggered school times in some areas of America, because the bus companies prefer to run staggered bus runs rather than employ more bus drivers!
Myanmar has been doing this for a long time, young kids in the mornings, older ones in the afternoons, same buildings.
So you get the traffic problems with the parent drops 4 times a day!!
It can be crazy in Yangon at these times!!!
I understand there are two principals and other staff are duplicated, with a changeover period in the middle of the day so the deputies and principals can bring each other up to speed on any problems. Different teachers for am and pm too.
don @ #1472 Thursday, March 29th, 2018 – 9:32 am
I don’t have any knowledge to that level but it would not surprise me. 🙂
Don
You are arguing the economy rules.
The company can get a smaller bus.
Or the school can be bigger in a more central location with a longer commute time.
Or country towns can have a school that kids walk or cycle to.
There are many options. This country was even innovative enough to come up with the School of the Air to get around commute and bus problems.
There is a word for this kind of statement.
Breaking: Nine has secured tennis media rights for $300m over 5 years, up from $200m, ending Seven’s four-decade hold on the Australian Open https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/media/channel-seven-tipped-to-lose-rights-to-australian-open-tennis/news-story/7f2019ca0cee4835a426a47d1287a102
Yeah yeah yeah….the peoples of Eastern Europe are not “good/developed/strong” enough to free themselves from Stalin’s writ.
What a deplorably elitist view from dtt.
Barney in Go Dau @ #1469 Thursday, March 29th, 2018 – 10:28 am
You mean even crazier than Yangon normally is?
‘The company can get a smaller bus.’
Buses aren’t expensive, bus drivers are.
grimace @ #1478 Thursday, March 29th, 2018 – 9:39 am
You get in a taxi or go for a walk at these times and you’ll see it first hand, especially if you’re in a taxi.
It may be a three lane major road in either direction but you’ll be sitting there watching it!!! 🙂
zoomster
Nice cherry pick
Buses really are expensive.
ratsak says:
Thursday, March 29, 2018 at 1:32 pm
My car does have seat belts.
Now.
My little 1938 Singer had seat belts in 1960 because I thought they were a good idea, before they were compulsory.
Breaking: Nine has secured tennis media rights for $300m over 5 years, up from $200m, ending Seven’s four-decade hold on the Australian Open
That’s great. Now I will be able to watch channel seven when the tennis is on.
zoomster @ #1478 Thursday, March 29th, 2018 – 12:39 pm
One option in rural areas, possibly making positive use of the “gig” economy might be to allow more formal car pooling/private transport. If Mum/Dad could get proper insurance that allows them to collect for payment 2/3 additional kids (or 5 if they have a people mover), then you might not need the expensive half empty buses.
Not fixed on it but it does seem an option. Similarly shopping runs whereby one person may collect 3/4 elderly residents for a single trip to the shops say weekly. Of course it happens now but it is voluntary and pity the poor person who falls out with neighbours or is too shy to ask a favour.
guytaur says:
Thursday, March 29, 2018 at 1:36 pm
Don
You are arguing the economy rules.
The company can get a smaller bus.
Or the school can be bigger in a more central location with a longer commute time.
Or country towns can have a school that kids walk or cycle to.
Guytaur, you are the most impractical person I have come across for a long, long time, and you have no idea whatsoever of what happens in rural towns, and, I suspect, large urban centres.
The kids live twenty or thirty or more kilometres out of town. Try walking or cycling that on a main highway. The Walcha bus is nearly 70 km one way. Bloody long walk, I reckon. Mind you, they’d be fit.
don @ #1486 Thursday, March 29th, 2018 – 9:50 am
They wouldn’t need a bed at home.
By the time they got home they would need to turn around and start walking back.
They’d probably make it for every second day!!! 🙂
But, Anton, for how many pieces of gold?
And what does that tell us?
Don
Then have a smaller school closer or the parents deliver the kids to school.
There are options. Like what the kids do at school when they get there. e.g.. Some could do their sports in the afternoon after schoolwork.
It just requires thinking differently. It also has the bonus of meaning that kids don’t have to travel on the weekend and can help out around the home.
If you consider that a bonus. DTT has made a good point about alternatives. Of course more is possible without profits being part of the equation. If its a non profit co op style company or a government bus then profit doesn’t come into it. Just what it costs and how much parents are wiling to pay for a bus pass for children.
guytaur,
Have you ever been outside of a city?
Flying between two doesn’t count! 🙂
Governments always like to build buildings (schools, hospitals) or buy things rather than to employ people. It’s easier to budget for a one off purchase, no matter how large, than to commit to employing someone for (perhaps) fifty years. A government would much rather buy a bus than employ another bus driver.
guytaur @ #1489 Thursday, March 29th, 2018 – 1:58 pm
I am surprised you haven’t come up with a SE Asian solution with 10 kids piled onto a motorbike and side-car! Seems to work there. 😀
Observer @ #1488 Thursday, March 29th, 2018 – 1:56 pm
WTF is this about?
Barney
People who choose to live in remote areas have higher travel costs. Its part of living in the country. Usually made up by cheaper housing costs and food.
Having staggered school times is not an excuse to make profit a motive for bus companies.
In the past the idea was the government would even run a bus at a loss to get kids to school.
Its not really an argument against having staggered school times. If it gets that bad you are too remote for buses or other travel then you go the School of the Air route or as many do by choice even in cities online courses. With virtual teachers.
There are many solutions. Change is coming like it or not. We could even have different school times for country people than those in the city. Its whatever is most practical. Its not a one size fits all approach.
bemused @ #1492 Thursday, March 29th, 2018 – 10:08 am
And wouldn’t the resultant carnage be just lovely!!! 🙁
Barney in Go Dau @ #1495 Thursday, March 29th, 2018 – 2:11 pm
Is there carnage in SE Asia? As I said, seems to work there.
guytaur
‘ Some could do their sports in the afternoon after schoolwork.’
Seriously, stop digging.
Parents run sports clubs. Parents work (by and large) 9 to 5, Monday to Friday.
Kids presently train after school, generally after 5 so the parent who is doing the training can get there.
They play games on weekends because that’s when all the other parents are able to deliver their children to games, which (because of different age groupings) are spread out over at least one day (and sometimes two). Games usually involve at least some travel, because you need other teams to play against, and these usually come from other towns.
You can fit a training session in after school, which is what happens at present. You can’t fit a game against another club, which can involve an hour’s travel each way.
guytaur @ #1494 Thursday, March 29th, 2018 – 10:09 am
Bloody farmers!!!
So selfish living outside of town.
It is the law that says these children must attend school until a certain age so why should they have any travel costs and that goes for anyone and all public school charges.
Barney
You mean like we used to assume that the government would carry the cost of buses running them at a loss to make certain kids got to school. NSW has free bus passes for all students country and city.
So the decisions are cost and profit for buses.
We have neo liberals wanting profits profits profits.