As reported by The Guardian, the latest fortnightly poll from Essential Research shifts in favour of the Coalition, who now trail Labor 52-48 compared with 54-46 in the last poll. While this fits the narrative of Labor taking a hit from dividend imputation better than Newspoll, Essential’s question on the subject produces a better result for Labor than Newspoll’s, with 32% supportive and 30% opposed (compared with 33% and 50% from Newspoll). Primary votes and full report to follow later.
UPDATE: Full report here. As with two-party, the Coalition is up two on the primary vote, to 38%, and Labor down two, to 36%, with the Greens steady on 9% and One Nation steady on 8%.
I believe the mystery of Newspoll’s and Essential’s different numbers on dividend imputation is solved: Essential’s question was preceded by another on how many people were beneficiaries of the existing policy (16% received a tax deduction, 10% a cash payment), which explained how the existing policy works and how much it costs. This is unfortunate in my view, because it put respondents on a different footing from the general population. Some of the “statements about imputation credits” that respondents were invited to agree or disagree with also seem a bit leading (“paying people money to compensate for tax they haven’t paid does not make sense”), although in this case it doesn’t affect the responses to the more important question of support or opposition to the policy, as it came later in the survey.
The poll also canvasses opinion on what other tax policies respondents might support or oppose, and as usual it finds that the public heavily favours a more redistributive approach (class war and the politics of envy, if you will). Nonetheless, 40% favour cutting the company tax rate to 25%, with 30% opposed. Twenty-six per cent trust Labor more to manage a fair tax system, 28% the Coalition, and 31% no difference. Only 7% reckon Australia’s gun laws too strict, 25% think them too weak, and 62% say they are about right. A series of questions on Facebook finds 79% agreeing it should be more regulated, with 12% disagreeing, but 45% finding Facebook “generally a force for good”, with 37% disagreeing.
Dear, oh dear Shellbell
Some of your colleagues really are naughty
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/alleged-salim-mehajer-conspirator-blames-lawyer-over-crash-documents-20180328-p4z6rv.html
Only in Sydney I guess
https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/boeing-hit-by-wannacry-virus-fears-it-could-cripple-some-jet-production/
Personally I like the idea of going after oligarch money instead.
Victoria @ #3336 Thursday, March 29th, 2018 – 10:23 am
A direct Russian hit on an ex GRU defector and his daughter using a specific weapon carefully calibrated to scare the shit out of Putin’s (surviving) opponents and demonstrate his personal ruthlessness in time for his “reelection” – and his contempt for May’s UK. Novichok was a Russian designed and made agent (though the Iranians were said (by the US) to have made some to throw back at Saddam Hussein in the 90s), as was the sarin used in Syria. As an agent of political assassination novichok has marginally more deniability and cost, (but just as much fuck you factor) as using polonium.
Vogon Poet @ #1261 Thursday, March 29th, 2018 – 8:38 am
So do our best buddies Saudi, Egypt, nearly all of Sub-Saharan Africa, Brazil, Mexico,increasingly Poland and some of the eastern European states, Pakistan, probably china and no doubt a 100 countries not yet mentioned. additionally many of the US states resemble police states.
Why single out Russia. It is a throw back to the cold war days when priests harangued people from the pulpit about the nasty anti Christian commies led by unspeakable Russia.
Sorry you were all terrorized as 5 year olds but time to stop being scared of the reds under your beds.
White House staffers bemoan ‘insane’ atmosphere in the West Wing as Hope Hicks departs
As outgoing White House communications director Hope Hicks prepares to depart, Trump administration staffers are complaining about the “insane” atmosphere in the West Wing.
CBS News reported Wednesday that former and current White House officials are not only worried about what will happen now that Hicks is leaving, but also about the level of chaos the race to replace her has induced.
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/03/white-house-staffers-bemoan-insane-atmosphere-west-wing-hope-hicks-departs/
C@tmomma says:
Thursday, March 29, 2018 at 10:47 am
…”We need Daylight Savings so we can start work earlier but it’s not still dark forever!”…
Why are you not able to work in the dark?
Does Australia’s “economic powerhouse” not have a reliable power grid?
Jeb Bush rips Trump with brutal one-liner: At least I have kids ‘who actually love me’
Former Governor Jeb Bush (R-FL) slammed President Donald Trump during a lecture sponsored by the The William F. Buckley, Jr. program at Yale University, the Yale Daily News reported Wednesday.
Bush said that — unlike Trump — he goes home every day to children “who actually love me.”
Trump bested Jeb Bush during the 2016 GOP presidential primaries.
“I’m not going to talk about the 2016 election,” Bush joked. “I’m still in therapy.”
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/03/jeb-bush-rips-trump-brutal-one-liner-least-kids-actually-love/
AoE
I am being realistic. Tasmania which is the state to blame. (They recently made it the six months thing. ). Is not going to reverse course. NSW and Victoria just joind them because there were too many time zones.
Queenslad should take the same pragmatic approach so the Eastern seaboard is one time zone.
Then all states should agree that any future changes need to be done via COAG. That will stop Tasmania disrupting everything
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trumps-lawyer-allegedly-raised-possibility-of-pardons-for-manafort-flynn-last-summer/2018/03/28/3c5e570c-32ae-11e8-8abc-22a366b72f2d_story.html?utm_term=.3a4a93a36f7b
As a former member of the ALP, if I were the Labor Senate leadership team I would be reaching out to Tim Storer and offering him Don Farrell’s Senate spot on the ALP ticket in SA at the next federal election. Labor can do without Farrell but Storer is a keeper, I reckon.
Say it ain’t true C@t
daretotread. says:
Thursday, March 29, 2018 at 10:53 am
Why single out Russia.
Russia has singled out itself by its conduct, most recently by the deployment of a weapon of mass destruction – a proscribed weapon – in the UK.
The questions here should be: Why do you apologise for them? Why do you excuse their aggression?
DTT
The projection and complete lack of self awareness is staggering.
AoE:
Precisely.
I cannot stand daylight savings, and I’m incredibly grateful we are spared from having to deal with that noise here in Queensland. And it really does get on my nerves how, whenever the issue of solving the problems with the time difference comes up, it’s always Queensland that’s expected to change rather than the southern states.
Even if you ignore the fact that DLS just does not work in tropical climates, I’ve never quite fathomed why anyone in temperate climates would want it either. The sun already sets ridiculously late at night down south in summer – who are these lunatics who want it to remain light out past 9pm on a stinking hot mid-summer day? Having spent the entirety of my life living north of the NSW border, I’m always baffled when I spend a night in Sydney or Melbourne, wind up eating dinner or trying to go to bed in broad daylight, and realize that people have actually chosen to make things this way!
Additionally, while everyone likes to laugh about the dumb farmers complaining about the curtains being faded, there is one genuine consequence to daylight savings – namely, that the day after the change-over has been proven to be one of the most dangerous to be on the roads, due to everyone operating on an hour less sleep than normal.
And all for what? The arguments for daylight savings (ie. “we can go to the beach after work!”) always seem to be based around satisfying those living very particular lifestyles, at the expense of everyone else. It ignores people who, say, have very early starts in the morning and would prefer it to be night when they go to sleep, or who actually enjoy the evenings and would prefer to have more night hours rather than less (particularly in the height of summer, where night provides a reprieve from the heat), or who are capable of performing the herculean feat of waiting until the weekend to go to the beach.
Personally, I love my 7pm sunsets, and have no desire to give them up.
briefly @ #1295 Thursday, March 29th, 2018 – 10:45 am
The “Putin-o-phones” are a creation of your own over active imagination.
With the possible exception of DTT, I have seen no-one here defending or promoting Putin.
Confessions @ #1308 Thursday, March 29th, 2018 – 9:56 am
Pure obstruction of justice, I say!
Manafort and Flynn have no reason to cooperate with Mueller if Trump is giving them preemptive assurances of pardons. Any offer of pardon should be viewed as a deliberate attempt to interfere with Mueller’s investigation.
guytaur says:
Thursday, March 29, 2018 at 10:56 am
…”Queenslad should take the same pragmatic approach so the Eastern seaboard is one time zone”…
.
But you haven’t actually provided any justification for why we should accommodate you in this fashion, nor any benefit to us, in doing so.
(We do it so you should also do it is not a reason).
a r:
It’s absolutely obstruction of justice! Can you imagine the reactions from Republicans had Obama’s lawyers made similar promises in similar situations?
I’d love to know who leaked against Dowd though.
Sorry C@t,
Why would Labor take on Storer?
What would it give Labor?
Surely having an Independent that is open to reason is worth more than gifting him a guaranteed Senate spot!
Also Labor has it’s own talent pool, why should Storer jump them. 🙂
guytaur:
No, you’re not being realistic.
Most of the top half of Queensland is a tropical climate. Daylight savings doesn’t work at tropical latitudes. (Well, I personally don’t really think it works anywhere, but it’s especially bad in the tropics.)
Why should Queensland change just to satisfy the southern states? If the time difference is bothering everyone so much, why not eliminate daylight savings in NSW, Victoria, and Tas instead? It would have the same effect.
And, FFS, an hour time difference isn’t that difficult to keep track of.
Let’s see how Storer handles a few more decisions first.
People got all hot and sweaty over Ricky Muir, until his views on other issues became known.
Well managed those chaps. “Rip rip wood chip” all the way
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/mar/29/tasmanian-forest-agreement-delivers-13bn-losses-in-giant-on-taxpayers
I love daylight saving so I admit bias.
However one sensible solution for Qld would be for SEQ to join with NSW and the remainder to join central time. This would sort out the absurd problem along the tweed and inter-capital flights etc. It makes sense for the Gold Coast because as tourist destinations it is a big plus – longer times on beaches etc.
c@t:
Er, it is possible I’m misunderstanding you here, but isn’t the whole point of daylight savings to make the sun rise (and set) later, not earlier? Meaning the very early risers would have to deal with more darkness, not less?
briefly @ #1310 Thursday, March 29th, 2018 – 7:02 am
That is the phrase that has been very noticeably absent in this issue;
It highlights how much restraint is actually going on at the moment. 🙂
C@t –
“Penny Wong and Don Farrell would have 6 years. Alex Gallacher would have 3.
I think.”
Correct. Just looked it up. I think that in the absence of NickX that Labor would be a special to win at least 2 senate seats at the next federal election in a half senate election contest. Perhaps even three given how much Truffles is on the nose and the fact that the Marshall Government will be probably at least a year old and proven hopeless by then.
Storer for the No.2 ALP slot probably won’t ruffle too many feathers. There may be a case for it. Perhaps. …
Here in WA, where we don’t have daylight saving(s), having rejected it at four referendums, the feeling is that whenever the topic is brought up by a politician it is usually to distract from something else.
Is that happening here?
Personally I don’t care. In my last job when we had a trial period I worked in the evenings so I was inside when the extra hour of daylight was or was not being enjoyed.
But one son works in a business with dealings in the eastern states and says it is a pain. The afternoon in WA is pretty much idle time. And yes, he is already at work at 7am.
But he knows it isn’t going to change.
I agree with Malcolm Nance that coincidence takes planning and this is beyond coincidence, esp in light of the recent reports of Russians targeting US infrastructure.
dtt:
Where would you put the border between the DST and non-DST parts of Queensland, though?
This periodically gets brought up as a “solution” to the problem, but I personally think it would exacerbate the confusion. At least there is currently a state border to make it obvious when you need to adjust your watch, rather than the change-over presumably happening in some isolated part of rural Queensland.
But, then, I am biased myself, as I live in South East Queensland and definitely do not want daylight savings.
Well, that was interesting. People get very entrenched around the “right” time for the sun to set. BTW, I didn’t post the article as a recommendation, but just for interest.
bemused says:
Thursday, March 29, 2018 at 11:03 am
I make no concession whatsoever to the Putin-o-phones on this.
The “Putin-o-phones” are a creation of your own over active imagination.
With the possible exception of DTT, I have seen no-one here defending or promoting Putin.
Several of the Fakes are Putin-o-phillic. Their rationalisations seem to run along the lines that neo-liberalism is the devil’s work, Putin is undermining the neo-lib order, therefore Putin is good. This is very weak thinking. It is the same line of argument they use to gee themselves up to oppose Labor whenever they can.
There are one or two strays who also shrug at the Russian annexation of Crimea – that is, at the seizure of territory from their neighbour, in conflict with international law and in breach of the agreements made by which Ukraine disarmed itself.
The reason I suggested COAG should be the place to decide time zones is exactly because at the moment everyone is having to go with Tasmania. There six months Daylight Savings makes sense.
The further north you go away from the South Pole the less justification for Daylight Savings.
If we leave things as they are Tasmania has proven it has the whip hand on this issue.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #1324 Thursday, March 29th, 2018 – 7:16 am
What does Labor gain out of this?
If Boeing is just now encountering a problem with WannaCry, that’s entirely on them. It’s been nearly a year now since WannaCry surfaced.
Boeing getting attacked now isn’t some Russian ploy, it’s just Boeing being incompetent at IT.
Zoomster
I agree with you. Let Storer run for a while before we formalize our opinions on him.
While travelling through WA last year, I was surprised that some WA communities near the WA/NT border work on NT time. Makes sense, as WA is a wide state and Perth time would be inappropriate. But thinking about it now, not much was happening in the town that would have been time dependant.
guytaur
Melbourne is very similar to Tassie as far as daylight hours go.
DTT
I agree that it’s not very nice of people to be calling you deranged or unhinged. But it’s got nothing at all to do with misogyny or bullying. Both those terms are thrown around way too much without any foundation IMO.
boris:
That made me giggle too.
Absence of Empathy @ #1306 Thursday, March 29th, 2018 – 10:54 am
The nation’s economic powerhouse workers do not all work in comfortable offices with lighting, A of E. 🙂
Take my son and his mates, for example. They are involved in building the homes and skyscrapers for everyone else to live and work in. There are no lights, too expensive, probably diesel generators in any case. We need Daylight Savings for them. 🙂
Broken Hill (NSW) runs on South Australian time.
Barney – @ 11:23 – “What does Labor gain out of this?
Good question. Possibly three things:
1. Locking Storer in as a thorn in the government’s side until the next election. Storer as an ALP member would kill any remaining chance the tax cuts would have in being legislated in this term of Parliament – forcing Truffles and the LNP to chose to either take them to the election or ditch them altogether.
2. gaining a competent rational member and adding that to caucus.
3. Increasing the profile of the ALP Senate team in SA for the next election – Storer might bring a bit of a personal following via below the line voters which may help get an extra quota.
That said. I have my doubts.
guytaur:
Personally, I’m cool with each state just doing it’s own thing re DST, even if it means people will have to mentally exhaust themselves by performing basic addition and subtraction every so often.
What does Labor gain out of this?
A competent, youngish, principled legislator, with Economics qualifications, able to speak fluent Mandarin (and who isn’t a plonker like Rudd), is a good start.
PeeBee @ #1334 Thursday, March 29th, 2018 – 7:26 am
Same in Broken Hill, SA time.
One problem at the moment with daylight savings is that it effectively makes Australia an even bigger Country and some areas effectively move.
Queensland is west of South Australia with the Northern Territory sitting between it and Western Australia.
rossmcg @ #1325 Thursday, March 29th, 2018 – 8:17 am
I work with a number of different time zones. It’s a pain, and a fact of life. If your business is so poorly organised that you can’t cope with time differences then you’ve got far worse internal problems than daylight savings.
briefly @ #1329 Thursday, March 29th, 2018 – 11:21 am
This is just unintelligible drivel.
It is impossible to distinguish between your rubbish and what you are quoting.
The Russian nation did not begin with Putin and it will not end with Putin.
Crimea had long been part of Russia until the Ukranian, Kruschev, made it part of Ukraine for administrative convenience. Within the USSR, that didn’t mean much. When the USSR dissolved, it should have reverted to Russia. It didn’t, but the overwhelmingly Russian population wanted to be part of Russia and, belatedly, it came about. Would any other Russian leader have presided over this? We will never know, but quite possibly.
Ukraine is not a homogeneous nation in attitudes to Russia and the West. The western part is predominantly Catholic and western oriented. As you go further East, the Orthodox Church becomes predominant and it becomes more inclined toward Russia. Hence independence movements in border areas. And yes, I accept that Russia is probably encouraging this and certainly not discouraging it.
Russia does not want NATO on its borders. It would have been sensible for the West to uphold the agreement Russia thought it had on this and left Ukraine as a buffer state.
Ides of March not.logged in @ #1333 Thursday, March 29th, 2018 – 11:24 am
This whole discussion is nuts.
Storer was on the NXT ticket. Work with him by all means, but he is not an ALP member and he owes the ALP nothing and the ALP owes him nothing.
Confessions @ #1327 Thursday, March 29th, 2018 – 11:19 am
Remember when the Obama Administration found Russian agents in the Mojave Desert and other suspicious places just happening to coincide with major fibre optic cable nexus points?
You’ve got to give it to the Russians for this much, they plan WELL ahead.
I would also add that the Boeing factory was targeted because it is in Seattle where the Russian mission was recently shut down by the Trump Administration.
Of course as you age and leave the workforce time becomes a little more irrelevant.
In summer time I wake early thanks to the birds in the park opposite and in winter time I wake later.
Some days I wake and have to think “yes, it’s Tuesday …”
Girl in the supermarket asked me if I had plans for the long weekend. Life is a long weekend for me.
I recommend it.
Darn @ #1336 Thursday, March 29th, 2018 – 11:28 am
They have become the refuge of scoundrels.