Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

No change on voting intention in the twenty-ninth successive Newspoll loss for the Coalition.

The first Newspoll for three weeks lands where it usually does, at 53-47 to Labor, with no change on the previous poll, making it 29 successive losses for Malcolm Turnbull. There’s also all but no change on the primary vote, with Labor up one to 39%, the Coalition steady on 37%, the Greens steady on 9% and One Nation steady on 7%. Malcolm Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 37-35 to 39-36. On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is down two on approval to 32% and Bill Shorten is one to 34% – we will evidently have to wait for the disapproval numbers (UPDATE: Turnbull’s disapproval rating is down one to 56%, Shorten’s is down two to 54%). Simon Benson’s more than usually idiosyncratic take on the results at The Oz here.

UPDATE: Newspoll also has a question on Labor’s plan to abolish franking credit cash refunds, which makes The Oz’s report less weird than it seemed at first blush. It finds 50% opposed to the idea with only 33% in support, breaking down to 42-36 in favour those aged 18-34, 45-32 against among the 35-49s, 58-30 against among the 50-64s, and 66-25 against among those over 65.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

877 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 2 of 18
1 2 3 18
  1. Confessions says:
    Sunday, March 25, 2018 at 10:10 pm
    The LNP have forgotten the first rule of contemporary politics: voters don’t trust them, which is to say they think that politicians lie compulsively. So when a voter hears an LNP voice saying Labor’s plans will hurt x,y or z, voters will either not believe it, or, quite likely, assume that the opposite is true.
    Isn’t it just that voters are no longer listening to the coalition anymore?

    mmm…voters have a low opinion of politicians in general…as we can see in the net-sats for Turnbull and Shorten…they particularly dislike shouty-fight performances, which we see all the time from Cash and Morrison…

  2. Good night all – very early start tomorrow.

    I think Australia will collapse in the cricket tomorrow – their minds won’t be on the game. When Pakistan players got found out for “spot fixing”, their will to compete in the Test they were playing just evaporated and they were thrashed. I expect much the same tomorrow.

  3. The MSM and the LNP must be seeing that the end is nigh for them.They are truly shitting their pants now after that result.

  4. C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, March 25, 2018 at 10:11 pm
    Of course the result would have been better for Labor if Bill Shorten wasn’t leader.

    (Just thought I’d get in before Rex. )

    ..saving them valuable troll-time…

  5. I agree News Corp, and the press gallery are way out of touch.

    I wonder if the hearings into the banks RC were a factor?
    In typical Turnbull style he can’t take any credit from that.

  6. I hadn’t seen Wayne since the Batman by election, he must have been very disappointed the Liberals didn’t win the seat.

  7. Newspoll has warmed my heart after the Eagles lost tonight, and I’ve something positive to mull over as I wait for a bus home.

  8. steve davis – yes and they are “blowing” 60 billion on tax cuts for companies, while decrying 60 billion savings on reversing a tax rort. The Coalition have twisted themselves in knots, and a majority of Australians have just stopped listening – because they know that they are in the majority who can vote the Coalition out fairly soon. So anything a Minister or Prime Minister says is pretty much irrelevant from now on. I see this every day at work among people who (like most) are not very interested in politics – they have already moved on, and no amount of Malcolm Turnbull donations to the Liberal Party’s election funds will change that.

  9. “put a fork in him (turnbull) he’s done”

    Dutton, Tony and Co won’t be using forks – the full set of steak knives, hacksaws, band saws, chainsaws etc. It’s gunna be gruesome – hopefully, it will finish with Turnbull going to the cross bench and joining a no-confidence vote in the rabble.

  10. briefly:

    I think the disengagement by voters towards the govt has more to do with them not advancing any policies or ideas that are in voters’ interests, but governing for the vested interests and playing silly culture war games.

  11. John Reidy – the banks stuff is also helping Labor. I hope that if Labor win the election they broaden the terms of reference and give them a few more years to do a proper job. Should also be an election commitment – would be popular (though not at Newscorp)

  12. Getting rid of Malcolm is the dumbest thing the Libs could do.

    Getting rid of Malcolm will probably be a disaster. Unfortunately for the Liberals, keeping him almost certainly will be as well.

  13. What we really need is a Brian Trumble Reset (TM) combined with a fresh round of Kill Bill! (TM).

    Then we need to marrinade Bill overnight in a septic tank followed by pouring it’s contents on him publicaly the next day. For the grand finalie the LNP needs to very publicaly lurch to the right on multinational tax cuts followed by abolishing the minimum wage.

    That’ll finish Bill off for good!

  14. The only problem with replacing Malcolm before the election is that any likely replacement would be a hard right winger. Or, worse still, possibly a hard right winger who proves competent in prosecuting the Coalition agenda.

  15. Ye Gads……if the Libs are in this much manure now, WTF is ScoMo’s Budget going to look like??

    If they make the centre piece a $65B handout to big business, with spending cuts that actually affect people at grass roots level now?? With the polling set in concrete, and how they are boxing themselves in economically, the Libs have to be considering how to achieve “least worst” rather than good (from their perspective” outcomes.

    I reckon it has got to the point where their only hope of a meaningful “reset” will be to dump Turnbull and replace him with someone who can come in, disown their program to date, AND crush the RWNJobbies in the Libs, But the chances of that are essentially zero.

  16. there must be a few LNP aspirants for PM who realise they are going to be in opposition for some time, and will possibly see the disintegration of the coalition and lib party following the next election. They’ll know their best chance to ever be PM is to move now. I expect Dutton will have a crack. Morrison might too. Pity sophie’s not still in the house, ’cause she’d be having a go for sure. I just want some mayhem to finish the @#$%s off.

  17. Of course,it was Bonking Barnaby that won Batman and hes soon to be our glorious leader until hes the leader of the world and universe in 2059.(according to Wayne).

  18. So Tesla is taking its Big Virtual Battery to Qld?

    I am truly living through the Zombie Apocalypse in South Australia. Intelligent voters have been taken over by zombies unleashed on us by the Liberal Party and its scumbag backers. Having just one Murdoch newspaper certainly helps the Zombies’ cause. As does late night talkback radio continually bagging the Weatherill gov’t.

    My Mum turned her radio off one night in the days before the state election. FiveAA midnight to dawn was just wall to wall the announcer running down Weatherill and his gov’t with talkback callers ringing to cheer the announcer on. It is the first time my Mum has done this, as she likes to listen to the people calling in. But everyone has their limits and Meoldema hit the wall.

    I hope Qld gets the BVB because the zombie ignorant Fwits in South Australia do not deserve it.

    F#ckem and the wooden horses they rode in on. I hope they enjoy manufacturing buggy whips and button-up-boot laces

  19. imacca says:
    Sunday, March 25, 2018 at 10:36 pm
    Ye Gads……if the Libs are in this much manure now, WTF is ScoMo’s Budget going to look like??

    If they make the centre piece a $65B handout to big business, with spending cuts that actually affect people at grass roots level now?? With the polling set in concrete, and how they are boxing themselves in economically, the Libs have to be considering how to achieve “least worst” rather than good (from their perspective” outcomes.

    The budget position is improving quite strongly, apparently, and may be close to being in surplus already, following the revival in commodity prices and rises in employment. The LNP will campaign on tax cuts and on the budget…clear as day.

  20. Imacca – who is there who could ‘crush’ the RWNJs? Turnbull thought that was him until he fucked up the election and has to reply on the RWNJs. There’s no room to move with a one seat majority. turnbull hoped to win the last (and next) election with enough authority to govern without the RWNJs, but they own the party and there’s no prospect of a moderate leader with power to crush. The crushing will be done by the RWNJs – Dutton will have no moderates in his cabinet. His night of the long knives will see abbott, abetz, andrews, etc elevated and a purge of pyne, hunt, etc.

    turnbull must be happy about ball tampering fall out- at least the newspoll will not be tomorrow’s main headline. I bet he wishes it was his Tamper affair? (sorry).

  21. WTF is ScoMo’s Budget going to look like??

    There was an article about the budget in the AFR.
    Company tax receipts (from the resources) are up. Also due to jobs growth, income tax is up (to a lesser extent), and welfare is down.

    The company tax cuts (if passed) don’t take effect for another couple of years, so this will be a give-away, just like Howard and Costello.

    My take is they intend to make if difficult for an incoming Labor government.

  22. Company tax cuts are not going to work for Turnbull because they havent in the 2 years theyve had this policy.Every punter knows about this policy and they are not convinced by it at all.

  23. “The budget position is improving quite strongly, apparently, and may be close to being in surplus already, following the revival in commodity prices and rises in employment.”…

    Are you drunk?

  24. Snap briefly.

    Yes they will campaign on restoring the budget to surplus and personal tax cuts. If passed they probably won’t mention company tax at all.

  25. “despite widespread anger over the Labor leader’s $59 billion tax grab”… The anger is obviously not widespread at all… Why should it be? 1% of angry voters may make a lot of noise through the Murdoch press…. but are not very visible in the opinion polls…. and elections.

  26. Alpo
    “despite widespread anger over the Labor leader’s $59 billion tax grab”… How would they know?They think they know what voters want and dont want.They dont know jackshit.Its all in their tiny minds.

  27. The anger is so widespread they can’t find one genuine struggling low income earner who will be impacted adversely by the change. Even PB can do better than that.

  28. @ Zoomster

    That’s because they think someone with a $100k income is a low income earner. They wouldn’t know what a real low income earner was, much less have one in their circle of aquaintances.

  29. the 100,000 figure mentioned by steve is net and its not too uncommon

    i think coles managers get 80,000

    isn’t average wage nudging that?

Comments Page 2 of 18
1 2 3 18

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *