Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

No change on voting intention in the twenty-ninth successive Newspoll loss for the Coalition.

The first Newspoll for three weeks lands where it usually does, at 53-47 to Labor, with no change on the previous poll, making it 29 successive losses for Malcolm Turnbull. There’s also all but no change on the primary vote, with Labor up one to 39%, the Coalition steady on 37%, the Greens steady on 9% and One Nation steady on 7%. Malcolm Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 37-35 to 39-36. On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is down two on approval to 32% and Bill Shorten is one to 34% – we will evidently have to wait for the disapproval numbers (UPDATE: Turnbull’s disapproval rating is down one to 56%, Shorten’s is down two to 54%). Simon Benson’s more than usually idiosyncratic take on the results at The Oz here.

UPDATE: Newspoll also has a question on Labor’s plan to abolish franking credit cash refunds, which makes The Oz’s report less weird than it seemed at first blush. It finds 50% opposed to the idea with only 33% in support, breaking down to 42-36 in favour those aged 18-34, 45-32 against among the 35-49s, 58-30 against among the 50-64s, and 66-25 against among those over 65.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

877 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Don’t miss the significance of this Visa being granted to someone at BRISBANE Airport and that “Home State” rhymes with “Mate”.

  2. Do you think Turnbull’s office has leaked against Dutton to try to head off a challenge? or someone else planning to challenge who wants dutton hobbled?

  3. “WWP,
    No babies died!
    So, destroying someones career to uphold your self righteous anger because they affronted your notions of fair play and what is right is pretty over the top.”

    I’m sorry GG I don’t like cheats. I don’t like tax cheats, I don’t like academic cheats, I don’t like business cheats. They are all trying to take things they are not entitled to.

    Those babies that haven’t died shouldn’t have to grow up in a world where cheating is how you get ahead, but that is the world we live in, and obviously the world you want.

    Trump perhaps is the perfect embodiment of success by cheating and I don’t like a world like that, if you do that is fine, perhaps in your world view they should get Australian of the year for trying to cheat, or do we reserve that for those who succeed in cheating, because if you tolerate cheating the awards and success will NEVER go to those that deserve them.

  4. Sustainable future @ #552 Monday, March 26th, 2018 – 12:46 pm

    Do you think Turnbull’s office has leaked against Dutton to try to head off a challenge? or someone else planning to challenge who wants dutton hobbled?

    I think the journalist has been chasing the story for a long time.

    I understand there have been FOI requests for the relevant info.

  5. SF

    the Dutton story is not a recent leak. The incident happened back in 2015 and AAP has had a running FOI battle with Dutton’s department since 2016.

    The story has surfaced again because
    there was an AAT tribunal hearing into the matter in the last week or so.

    and nothing I have read has suggested it was Dutton’s babysitter, despite his rage today.

    He has most likely doing a favour for a mate, which given how he treats just about everybody else who attracts the attention of his department is why the questions are being asked.

  6. The classic “I did not receive any benefit” line eh Spud? An oldie but a goodie.

    So the question to be answered clearly is “who did receive a benefit?”

    Then the follow up “what is their relationship to you?”

  7. WeWantPaul @ #555 Monday, March 26th, 2018 – 4:49 pm

    “WWP,
    No babies died!
    So, destroying someones career to uphold your self righteous anger because they affronted your notions of fair play and what is right is pretty over the top.”

    I’m sorry GG I don’t like cheats. I don’t like tax cheats, I don’t like academic cheats, I don’t like business cheats. They are all trying to take things they are not entitled to.

    Those babies that haven’t died shouldn’t have to grow up in a world where cheating is how you get ahead, but that is the world we live in, and obviously the world you want.

    Trump perhaps is the perfect embodiment of success by cheating and I don’t like a world like that, if you do that is fine, perhaps in your world view they should get Australian of the year for trying to cheat, or do we reserve that for those who succeed in cheating, because if you tolerate cheating the awards and success will NEVER go to those that deserve them.

    Your virtue and moral indignation are one thing.

    Having to live in the real world is another.

    On the Richter Scale of moral outrages in this life, I reckon rubbing dirt on a cricket ball is a non-event.

  8. Dutton is being perused by AAPs Catherine Martin who was a journalist in Perth in 1979 writing features and cracking the front page in the slow news silly season

  9. “Having to live in the real world is another.
    On the Richter Scale of moral outrages in this life, I reckon rubbing dirt on a cricket ball is a non-event.”

    Living in the real world is tough, not shoplifting, not claiming dishonest deductions on your tax return, not cheating at sport, these aren’t things you can really ask adults not to do, yet we ask our kids not to. Perhaps we were only kidding, it didn’t really matter.

    It isn’t like cricketers make millions and the cricket authorities sell this product as a fair sport to millions of people around the world … oh wait …

  10. “On the Richter Scale of moral outrages in this life, I reckon rubbing dirt on a cricket ball is a non-event.”
    Yep, a bit like Steve Smith’s career.

  11. I’m a bit ticked off that you think someone who allegedly performed services in Mr Dutton’s home for his wife/children was not providing a personal benefit to him.

    He has allegedly improperly used his position to facilitate services being provided to his wife/children who I assume live at his usual place of residence in Queensland. It’s irrelevant that he would have spent very little time in personal attendance at his residence while the alleged services were being provided. He has a legal and moral responsibility to provide care for his children, therefore he has personally benefited from the decision to override the decision to deport and grant a visa.

    grimace,
    I was simply trying to apply the sort of fungible latitude to the situation that the Coalition would likely attempt to provide themselves. I should have been clearer. 🙂

  12. Bernard Keane
    ‏Verified account @BernardKeane
    2h2 hours ago

    Have a suspicion this au pair story may yet cause more than a little trouble for the heir (not so) apparent Dutton.

  13. “If he stopped today, he’d be remembered forever and have a Test batting average in the 60s.
    How about you?”

    Whether CA punish him properly or not he will forever be Captain Cheat, and his batting average won’t matter a damn. Won the ashes in 17/18 yeah but he probably cheated at that too.

  14. Suggested Dutton press release:

    “The Parliament has entrusted the responsible Minister with a very broad range of discretions in these matters that can be very difficult at times. Every decision made as Minister using these broad powers has been made within the law. The Minister is not obliged to and will not be providing any further detail or comment in relation to any individual cases, and in fact it would be wrong for the Minister to do so.” [End of Statement]

  15. grimace

    As far as I am aware the only person who has mentioned anything about his family is Dutton.y Rem As Amy Remakis said in the Guardian
    .
    “the AAP story I read didn’t say who the au pair was working for, and carried the denial from the department that it was anyone related to Dutton. “

  16. Smith will get a fast track for Liberal pre-selection.

    He has demonstrated all the attributes that make an ideal Liberal Minister.

  17. Further statement from Minister Dutton:

    The Minister is aware of strong media interest and speculation in relation to an ‘au pair’. The Minister has taken advice, from the young LNP’ers Qld branch and can advise that there are extensive Video on Demand services, both paid and unpaid, for those members of the media with excessive interest in the movements of au pairs. [End of Statement].

  18. “Smith will get a fast track for Liberal pre-selection.
    He has demonstrated all the attributes that make an ideal Liberal Minister.”

    Exactly!

  19. Zoidlord @ #570 Monday, March 26th, 2018 – 2:08 pm

    Josh Butler
    ‏Verified account @JoshButler
    1h1 hour ago

    Peter Dutton has responded to reports today about his contribution to an au pair gaining entry to Australia by calling out the journalist by name in a press release and saying “I categorically reject those inferences” https://www.perthnow.com.au/politics/au-pair-visa-in-public-interest-dutton-ng-s-1843148

    The term “petrol on a bonfire” comes to mind.

  20. I finally got a prediction right last night!

    I think Australia will collapse in the cricket tomorrow – their minds won’t be on the game. When Pakistan players got found out for “spot fixing”, their will to compete in the Test they were playing just evaporated and they were thrashed. I expect much the same tomorrow.

    Only because I remember that total implosion by Pakistan when it looked like they just did not want to be out there (and neither did England). I should have put some money on Australia making a very small total – where’s the possible harm in betting on cricket?

  21. C@tmomma @ #565 Monday, March 26th, 2018 – 2:05 pm

    I’m a bit ticked off that you think someone who allegedly performed services in Mr Dutton’s home for his wife/children was not providing a personal benefit to him.

    He has allegedly improperly used his position to facilitate services being provided to his wife/children who I assume live at his usual place of residence in Queensland. It’s irrelevant that he would have spent very little time in personal attendance at his residence while the alleged services were being provided. He has a legal and moral responsibility to provide care for his children, therefore he has personally benefited from the decision to override the decision to deport and grant a visa.

    grimace,
    I was simply trying to apply the sort of fungible latitude to the situation that the Coalition would likely attempt to provide themselves. I should have been clearer. 🙂

    Having spent a couple of years as a stay at home dad I’m a bit sensitive to such inferences, thanks for clarifying.

  22. “Smith will get a fast track for Liberal pre-selection.

    He has demonstrated all the attributes that make an ideal Liberal Minister.”

    To be fair, he is from NSW and just a few years ago he would have been perfect for the Terrigals.

  23. WeWantPaul @ #569 Monday, March 26th, 2018 – 5:07 pm

    “If he stopped today, he’d be remembered forever and have a Test batting average in the 60s.
    How about you?”

    Whether CA punish him properly or not he will forever be Captain Cheat, and his batting average won’t matter a damn. Won the ashes in 17/18 yeah but he probably cheated at that too.

    I reckon this is a far more important matter than calling someone Captain Cheat over wiping dirt on a ball! It’s called perspective.

    https://twitter.com/twitter/statuses/977876960146743297
    b

  24. Murdoch has published a long story about Dutton and the au pair, including Lisa Martin’s AAP article.

    Dutton is now threatening legal action against AAP for claiming they said things which they clearly did not – “I won’t have false details about my wife and children printed and I won’t stand for it. That is the reality.”

    He is clearly rattled and, given that AAP is part owned by News Corp Australia (45%), Fairfax (47%) and Seven West Media (8%), this story could travel a long way yet.

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/national/peter-dutton-defends-using-his-ministerial-discretion-to-intervene-in-case-of-au-pair-visa-grant/news-story/b39090664cdb0687ccabd4443b7d2cc3 not paywalled which sometimes indicates they want the story to circulate widely.

    (AAP ownership from Wikipedia)

  25. @ Ratsak 3:55pm

    I agree with the tactic of not giving the filth an inch. If Labor were going to exempt pensioners and part pensioners they should have done that when the policy was first announced.

    As for so-called ‘low income’ self funded retirees – my starting point is frack them. They often have massive assets squirrelled away and their retirement savings are meant to disminish over time anyway & not becomes some type of capital colossus that is untouchable. If they don’t have massive assets but are relying upon franked dividends and the associated cash backs then they are not ‘self funded’ retirees – they are in fact receiving a form of welfare and a very very inefficient form of welfare at that. There are better ways for the tax payer to subsidise their retirement if they are genuinely in need.

    That said. If there now has to be a pivot, re: pensioners and part pensioners, it would be best done as part of the budget reply and/or in the election campaign, when the policy could be presented as part of an overall package of measures. This would take the sting out of any governemnt CPG wedge.

    It’s alwys worth reminding ourselves of this factoid – Superannuation and/or retirement incomes are meant for exactly that. Not to be yet another tax shelter for estate planning.

  26. Murdoch has published a long story about Dutton and the au pair, including Lisa Martin’s AAP article.

    Dutton is now threatening legal action against AAP for claiming they said things which they clearly did not – “I won’t have false details about my wife and children printed and I won’t stand for it. That is the reality.”

    He is clearly rattled and, given that AAP is part owned by News Corp Australia (45%), Fairfax (47%) and Seven West Media (8%), this story could travel a long way yet.

    So the AAP and News Corp are dead to Dutton now?

  27. Interesting GG my brain can be upset about both those things at the same time one doesn’t push the other out and I can rank them if / when necessary.

    I have expressed my anger and embarrassment about refugee matters here very strongly a number of times, usually to silence so perhaps I missed you or perhaps the one channel of outrage you can maintain at a time was busy or on a test pattern. But all good, I can definitely object to Australia torturing and killing people we have an obligation to protect, and I can loath cheating and those who tolerate it as well. I don’t know where my extra judgy compassion channels came from, might just be lucky.

  28. Cricket

    Oh yes, that’s a game that used to be televised and shown on free to air TV for the lower orders of society to watch.

    Some of our (Australia’s) players have attempted (in the most ridiculous manner) to gain an advantage by ball tampering.

    After the shock at hearing of this gross stupidity and regaining an even keel my thoughts on the matter are -” ho hum” and “so what ❓ ”

    When, in the past, I was able to watch cricket on TV (no Foxtel for me) if Warner got out early I lost interest. In older NRL days when Andrew Johns wasn’t playing – housework or lawn mowing.

    I think now the situation is that those who are so pure that the thought of pissing in the shower amounts to a mortal sin could ponder the qualities of mercy, not just for the players (few of them could be confused with Peter Singer and not a one is a professional ethicist), but for our fellows (homo saps) everywhere.

    And so, Brown Bear, let peace reign and the sports governing bodies do their job.

    In the meanwhile the professional BS artists (low grade) perform their thunder and lightning show to diminishing audience in the people’s house of parliament.

    Tis to laugh – 😂 🤣

  29. KayJay @ #591 Monday, March 26th, 2018 – 1:36 pm

    When, in the past, I was able to watch cricket on TV (no Foxtel for me) if Warner got out early I lost interest. In older NRL days when Andrew Johns wasn’t playing – housework or lawn mowing.

    I’d love to play cricket at your house the amount you mow your lawn.

    It must be like a bowling green?

    🙂

  30. I was listening to a crooked media podcast, lamenting in part that progressives seem to have no words for values or morals or you know that those essential and critical community guiding behavioural norms. You can’t oppose cheating or you’ll be beaten up and called too pure, you’ll be mocked. But then suddenly you turn around and you’ve got no values and no words to articulate why torturing kids in concentration camps is bad.

  31. WeWantPaul @ #595 Monday, March 26th, 2018 – 5:43 pm

    I was listening to a crooked media podcast, lamenting in part that progressives seem to have no words for values or morals or you know that those essential and critical community guiding behavioural norms. You can’t oppose cheating or you’ll be beaten up and called too pure, you’ll be mocked. But then suddenly you turn around and you’ve got no values and no words to articulate why torturing kids in concentration camps is bad.

    First they came for the cricket balls!

  32. ^^^^

    actually, cricket in Australia is overwhelmingly fta

    And I’d ask Peter singer before I’d presume to know his position in ball tampering.

  33. On The Drum it was implied that there were only two “babysitters/au pairs” who had overstayed and one of them rnag the Dept.. This is not in sync with the story of the aupair landing in Brisbane .

    Confusion.

  34. Barney in Go Dau @ #594 Monday, March 26th, 2018 – 5:42 pm

    KayJay @ #591 Monday, March 26th, 2018 – 1:36 pm

    When, in the past, I was able to watch cricket on TV (no Foxtel for me) if Warner got out early I lost interest. In older NRL days when Andrew Johns wasn’t playing – housework or lawn mowing.

    I’d love to play cricket at your house the amount you mow your lawn.

    It must be like a bowling green?

    🙂

    I am whipping (snipping) it back into shape after a mini drought.

    You would be very welcome to play here and to shower as well should you so desire.

    I do the mowing to maintain my goal of 1400 paces per day – counted faithfully by my mobile phone.

    🕊

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