The first Newspoll for three weeks lands where it usually does, at 53-47 to Labor, with no change on the previous poll, making it 29 successive losses for Malcolm Turnbull. There’s also all but no change on the primary vote, with Labor up one to 39%, the Coalition steady on 37%, the Greens steady on 9% and One Nation steady on 7%. Malcolm Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 37-35 to 39-36. On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is down two on approval to 32% and Bill Shorten is one to 34% – we will evidently have to wait for the disapproval numbers (UPDATE: Turnbull’s disapproval rating is down one to 56%, Shorten’s is down two to 54%). Simon Benson’s more than usually idiosyncratic take on the results at The Oz here.
UPDATE: Newspoll also has a question on Labor’s plan to abolish franking credit cash refunds, which makes The Oz’s report less weird than it seemed at first blush. It finds 50% opposed to the idea with only 33% in support, breaking down to 42-36 in favour those aged 18-34, 45-32 against among the 35-49s, 58-30 against among the 50-64s, and 66-25 against among those over 65.
poroti @ #4621 Monday, March 26th, 2018 – 3:32 pm
Adolph Kipfler 🙂 !
it’s easy to push dutton’s buttons because he is dumber than a dog poo with severe mental impairment. part of his anger is stupidity. the other part is his affront that people think he shouldn’t be above the law.
Talking of stupid, I just heard Turnbull’s response to being asked about bad poll #29. He tried to a Joh and talk about employment figures rather than the poll. Woeful. Worse still – it was very obviously rehearsed /planned. sounded fake, rude and evasive. Turnbull is TOAST.
The impression I got from the article was that they were detained on arrival.
The Potato’s answer suggests they were already in country.
Which is the case or is the Potato getting cases mixed up?
C@t
A rather muddled speech from Dutton, but I didn’t get that the two babysitters were for his family. They were different to the au pair.
Barney
Babysitters already in the country. An au pair detained on arrival.
Is this the same Mike Carlton that had a go at Labor over the dividend imputation reform? Talk about a lack of self-awareness!
Liberals will ramp up the “dogs breakfast” and tax policy “custard” attack if Labor proceeds with pensions backflip. Also doesn’t address low income self funded retirees #qt
Which is why it would be dumb if Labor goes that route.
They’ve won the battle, Trumble is desperate to get them to back onto his ground and into a war of attrition.
They should ignore him. He’s a pissant anyway. No one’s buying the shit he’s selling.
Use the money to do something that benefits all low wealth pensioners in a different way and bring Trumble onto that battlefield where you should already have the high ground secured before he even knows where the new front is.
And whatever you do be patient. Let Trumble rant. The longer you do so, the bigger useless dick he looks when you pull out your big guns and say ‘we told you we weren’t going to let the Pensioners down’. Then he has to argue why the poor old dears shouldn’t get all the nice things you are offering all pensioners.
Greensborough Growler @ #496 Monday, March 26th, 2018 – 12:37 pm
I think Dutton is on dangerous ground with his South African comments. I live in an area with a relatively high proportion of people from Africa, and there are far more people from Africa who have spent generations on the business end of colonialism in Africa than there are people who identify and empathise with white South African farmers.
His comments will undoubtedly shore up support from his rusted on base who were going to vote for the L/NP regardless of how vocal he was about the situation with farmers in South Africa, and will cost him votes with many others because of the overt racism.
Perhaps it would be prudent to delay judgement on S. Smith, rather than jump to point-scoring judgement (as did PM Turmoil). For years there has been low-level ball tampering: consider the use of Brylcreem, of picking at stitching and scuffing the ball. Pakistanis have been past masters, Atherton and du Plessis – the latter twice – guilty.
It’s not as if the young Australians tried to throw a match for personal gain; rather they made a stupid mistake – to which they owned up promptly. I’m not defending their actions; they were wrong. And they have disappointed many people. But it’s not a hanging offence.
Perhaps the incident speaks most of an unhealthy self-centred ethos which has been enshrined since the time if the Howard government?
lizzie @ #507 Monday, March 26th, 2018 – 11:53 am
Where do the babysitters come into it, the au pair is the story?
Or is that the Potato trying to deflect away from the story?
The tuber is currently behaving a bit like the beetrooter before it all came crashing down.
Perhaps just before the 30th Newspoll is released, Malcolm will do to Dutton what he did to Barnaby, to try and forestall a leadership challenge.
On this topic, PvO has written this afternoon:
Confessions @ #460 Monday, March 26th, 2018 – 11:48 am
“low income self funded retiree” is an oxymoron.
I think we should all take the Sky News so-called exclusive with a grain of salt. I for one hope they are off the mark and it would not surprise me if they are. Remember their big exclusive a couple of weeks ago on Shorten and Adani? Remind me how much of a shelf life that had again? Labor have no need to start backing away from the announcement of a couple of weeks ago; they can address concerns with pensioners in other ways.
“Heard Dutton’s response; extremely defensive. Interesting to see where if anywhere this goes.”
He’s going all “my family” defensive??
WTF, i had seen nothing till now that indicated this had anything to do with his family? But, if it does that opens up a line of legitimate questioning on how that relates to him performing his duties as minister.
Has he just stepped in something smelly?? 🙂
Barney
The potato deflecting, I think.
Perhaps just before the 30th Newspoll is released, Malcolm will do to Dutton what he did to Barnaby, to try and forestall a leadership challenge.
As I postulated earlier, the story that Sky and the AAP have got today about Dutton may well be Turnbull doing exactly that.
Well Dutton has been “triggered”
Short statement denying any allegations of personal benefit
lizzie @ #515 Monday, March 26th, 2018 – 4:02 pm
So they were in Australia baby-sitting the chips off the old potato?
citizen @ #511 Monday, March 26th, 2018 – 12:57 pm
I still think Christian Porter is a plausible replacement for Turnbull. He’s a RWNJ, he’s untouched by any current scandal, being from WA he’s expendible, and in any case he’ll probably loose his seat at the next election so will view the move as an acceptable risk.
A Good Lurk. I respectfully disagree. Smith is a confessed pre-meditated cheat. He not fit to play for let alone lead Australia
Dutton releases a very unsatisfactory statement!!
Addresses none of the issues raised in the article as there was no suggestion of personal gain!
https://twitter.com/michaelkoziol/status/978132530330198021/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Faustralia-news%2Flive%2F2018%2Fmar%2F26%2Fturnbull-loses-29th-newspoll-in-a-row-politics-ive
Dutton is, I think, successfully denying something perfectly legit within his position, to deflect from a further accusation about an au pair (not necessarily his).
Barney
Yes, very unsatisfactory.
I hope Potatohead challenges Turnbull and wins.He will be less popular and will tank the Lib vote even further.
lizzie @ #523 Monday, March 26th, 2018 – 12:10 pm
I didn’t get anything out of it but me mate down the road … 🙁
Has anyone got a copy of that Dutton statement which isn’t split into 2 unintelligible halves? 🙂
lizzie @ #522 Monday, March 26th, 2018 – 1:09 pm
The CPG smell blood and Dutton knows it. If he thinks the bone he just threw is going to help him, he only needs to consult Messrs Joyce or Dastyari
C@tmomma @ #526 Monday, March 26th, 2018 – 12:13 pm
I linked it below @521 and then just click on it. 🙂
Grimace – everybody in Parliament Hse would know who phoned Dutton about the Au Pair. This has bubbled up from the public service. Must have been another pollie.
So what is going on?
Dutton being caught giving favourable treatment on behalf of a friend?
Thanks, BiGD. 🙂
What’s important is what Dutton is NOT denying, not what he is denying.
If it was for a mate or (please, please) for another Coalition MP, they are all toast.
There is even a South African connection.
It’s really quite beautiful.
Victoria @ #530 Monday, March 26th, 2018 – 12:15 pm
From what we know that seems to be a fair assumption to make. 🙂
We could all be making a mistake and blowing up a story which is nothing, because of our extreme dislike of Dutton.
Dutton isnt helping himself right now by almost confirming there might be more to this story mind you though.
BB – I bet Labor has been tracking this for a long time, but has reckoned that Dutton was of more value alive than dead!
Perhaps Murdoch via the Courier Mail will dig up the dirt on Dutton, as the DT did on Barnaby.
If Murdoch wants to get rid of him for any reason, his hacks won’t hold back.
Barney IDG
Interesting.
“FWIW we need a complete change to the taxation/pension structure.”
I agree, but in essence you need in the first instance to define your target/s:
* Own your own home (but a sensible one not over invested in).
* Have enough super / assets to draw income and capital over a reasonable retirement period.
* Minimise tax and other incentives being paid to those who don’t need them at all.
* Maximise the quality of life of pensioners and those not pensioners who are self supporting but essentially at pensioner levels.
I don’t think it is theoretically difficult at all but politically it is really difficult, and for 40 years we’ve been doing it almost back to front where most of the wealth and benefits are going to the parts of society that least need it.
In part I think is a natural problem whereby those who are making and influencing the decisions are going to be at the wealthy end of the scale and they set the table for themselves first, second and last.
But it isn’t hard, you set a reasonable house value (at time of purchase) and if the house exceeds the value at that point you get to pay CGT on it, you get to include it in your asset test. Real estate agents will be grumpy because it will distort the market around that value, and it may encourage people to stay in their homes.
You then set a level of saving / super where you incentivise people to reach the target. I don’t know if it is $2 million or $0.4 million or $0.8 million but someone smart can do that.
Perhaps you band it so you set a ‘won’t need a pension band’ and savings / income below that should really be tax free. It is here a low GST does its thing, you spend you pay tax on that you save (if you can) you don’t pay any tax.
You’d then define a couple more bands whereby at every point you are trying to reward good self sufficient behaviour, tax self indulgent behaviour, and make sure you aren’t providing tax holidays and benefits to those who don’t need them. So for example you might have an exit tax where you can take $200k from a super account at retirement, but if you do that is taxed (you could set a flat rate, or have a formula that looks to get it to the point where it would have been if hadn’t ever got any concessional tax treatment).
You would definitely have a cap, again I don’t know but hypothetically but if the ‘minimum’ size target was say $1 million, at $2 million you could cap it entirely so that you just couldn’t put money into super any more. You have to keep it in ordinary taxpaying investments.
While personally I’m very drawn to a properly targeted estate tax, I appreciate there are some issues with it, but there is no issue at all in taxing super accounts in estates, just do it there is no justification for the next generation inheriting amounts of money the whole community has invested in with concessional tax treatments. So a simple rule would be that superfunds must roll into other superfunds (subject to exactly the same carefully designed thresholds) or be taxed at the recipients marginal rate.
Perhaps a bit more draconian but you could also have thresholds over each 5 years of retirement where the ‘cap’ actually reduces, encouraging either the roll over or the movement and taxation of funds out of super.
Okay, so the questions Dutton needs to answer 😉 clearly, are:
* Visas granted for those who were to work for his family, or for someone Dutton knew?
* Baby-sitter or Au Pair?
* 1 or 2?
* The question may NOT be whether HE gained a ‘personal benefit’ but did the person, or persons, gain a benefit, as in free accommodation in the Dutton household while they were on their Tourist Visa, in exchange for ‘baby-sitting’?
It can be argued that Dutton didn’t gain a ‘personal benefit’because he was likely in Canberra. His wife benefited. However, Dutton seems to have been the ‘Go To Guy’ who has overridden the Visa cancellation. Very quickly. So it’s probably a long bow to draw to say he ‘personally benefited’. Which is why he is concentrating on that aspect.
* Were these/ this Baby-Sitter(s) family friends? He says they weren’t related, but were they the kids of some other friend who lived overseas?
Dutton denies personal benefit. Dont think anything I have read suggested that.
Question simply is who was the instant visa reversal arranged for?
Hopefully AAP might win their FOI battle. Chris Puplick had a lot of enemies in the Libs, maybe he could settle a score here but I won’t bank on it.
There is even a South African connection.
There is?
It is a sick society which gives pensions to people living in multi – million dollar houses. In any tax/welfare reform assets as well as income must be considered
“It’s not as if the young Australians tried to throw a match for personal gain; rather they made a stupid mistake – to which they owned up promptly. I’m not defending their actions; they were wrong. And they have disappointed many people. But it’s not a hanging offence.”
I disagree for Smith and Warner it is IMHO a hanging offense. They are not ‘young Australians’, I find this whole infantilize Smith and Warner defence the worst possible take on either the ‘let them go’ or the ‘never to play again’ side of this rather silly debate about sport.
If we are happy to be seen as a nation of cheats as well as sooks and whingers then a slap on the wrist is appropriate for these multimillionaire Australian leadership players.
If we as a country and cricket as a sport wants to be seen as a fair dinkum sport, that abhors cheating and thinks this is not acceptable, then probably Smith and Warner would not ever play for Australia again. Clearly we aren’t really fair dinkum about it being a sport, we are all about winning, so you’d expect the penalty to fall a long way short of never play for Australia again, but we can measure Cricket Australia’s response on the scale from cheats, sooks and spoiled whingers to fair dinkum about the sport by the outcomes.
The worst possible outcome cheat, sooks and whingers wise, is for Bancroft to never play for Australia again, and the Captain and Vice Captain to get a smack on the wrist, but that is the outcome I’d expect from Cricket Australia it is a pretty pathetic organisation with a really really poor track record.
In other news, Pauline Hanson and Tony Abbott have kissed and made up. Or made up, anyway, as Abbott agrees to launch a book of Pauline’s speeches:
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/detestable-tony-abbott-to-launch-pauline-hanson-book-20180326-p4z6b2.html
I’ve always believed that Tony Abbott and John Howard never had problem about what Ms Hanson said, the issue was she was pinching “Liberal” and National voters because she said aloud what they think.
C@tmomma @ #539 Monday, March 26th, 2018 – 1:28 pm
I’m a bit ticked off that you think someone who allegedly performed services in Mr Dutton’s home for his wife/children was not providing a personal benefit to him.
He has allegedly improperly used his position to facilitate services being provided to his wife/children who I assume live at his usual place of residence in Queensland. It’s irrelevant that he would have spent very little time in personal attendance at his residence while the alleged services were being provided. He has a legal and moral responsibility to provide care for his children, therefore he has personally benefited from the decision to override the decision to deport and grant a visa.
WWP,
No babies died!
So, destroying someones career to uphold your self righteous anger because they affronted your notions of fair play and what is right is pretty over the top.
Sure, the perps in this little bungled escapade need to be punished and shamed.
However, we all learn from our experiences and executing someone for a something that’s a glorified parking infringement? Really? Redemption is open to us all.
I posted this earlier with the questions I think the Potato needs to answer.
Who was the au pair working for and why did Dutton owe them a favour?
Must be nice for a young tourist to arrive in a foreign country and know that with just one phone call you can waltz past our much vaunted Border Force. Now that’s clout.