Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

No change on voting intention in the twenty-ninth successive Newspoll loss for the Coalition.

The first Newspoll for three weeks lands where it usually does, at 53-47 to Labor, with no change on the previous poll, making it 29 successive losses for Malcolm Turnbull. There’s also all but no change on the primary vote, with Labor up one to 39%, the Coalition steady on 37%, the Greens steady on 9% and One Nation steady on 7%. Malcolm Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 37-35 to 39-36. On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is down two on approval to 32% and Bill Shorten is one to 34% – we will evidently have to wait for the disapproval numbers (UPDATE: Turnbull’s disapproval rating is down one to 56%, Shorten’s is down two to 54%). Simon Benson’s more than usually idiosyncratic take on the results at The Oz here.

UPDATE: Newspoll also has a question on Labor’s plan to abolish franking credit cash refunds, which makes The Oz’s report less weird than it seemed at first blush. It finds 50% opposed to the idea with only 33% in support, breaking down to 42-36 in favour those aged 18-34, 45-32 against among the 35-49s, 58-30 against among the 50-64s, and 66-25 against among those over 65.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

877 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Given that, I want to see the PPM number. That ALP primary at 39% would have to scare the bejesus out of the Libs.

    Edit: I see it’s 39-36 Turnbull… still bad.

  2. Leroy says:
    Sunday, March 25, 2018 at 9:43 pm

    Labor’s primary vote has returned to the highest levels since Malcolm Turnbull rolled Tony Abbott for the Liberal leadership, in apparent defiance of Bill Shorten’s plan to axe tax credit refunds for more than one million pensioners.

    In what will come as a shock result for the Government as it heads into the final week of Parliament before the May budget, the Opposition has cemented its lead over the Coalition despite widespread anger over the Labor leader’s $59 billion tax grab.

    …demonstrating that there is not “widespread anger” but rather widespread approval of Labor’s proposed reform; and that the LNP once again have been campaigning for Labor, as they so often do.

  3. Another case of the ALP playing the three rules of politics.
    1. Lock in your base
    2. Convince the middle
    3. Show your opponents for who they really are.

  4. Confessions says:
    Sunday, March 25, 2018 at 9:45 pm
    Green vote down then? Clock ticking for RDN also?
    Green PV no change either apparently.

    The Fake share is stagnating…has been for years. Almost no-one pays them any attention.

  5. bemused says:
    Sunday, March 25, 2018 at 9:14 pm
    briefly @ #1487 Sunday, March 25th, 2018 – 9:12 pm

    And you support the Americans in their big whinge!
    Why?

    ummm….I don’t support the whinging by either the US or Russia. The whinges are by-the-by and are predictable.

    I was noting this for the interest of the bludgers and because I’m also interested in Afghanistan. This country has been the subject of either Russian or US military interference since at least the 1970s. I’ve travelled there. I have Afghan friends here in Perth. I’ve worked with several others and watched with them as CNN broadcast the then-fatal bombing of their families in Kabul. I have past friends (now deceased) who, together with their families, fled the Taliban in fear of their lives and who spent most of their time subsisting in refugee camps in Pakistan, where they were effectively Stateless.

    Attempts to occupy and subjugate Afghanistan have many precedents, commencing with Alexander the Great, who, like the British, the Russians and the Americans also failed. Recent attempts at conquest have been very bloody and are surely also far from being concluded.

  6. Another case of the ALP playing the three rules of politics.

    According to the press gallery Shorten has simply been lucky. Nothing else!

  7. ** demonstrating that there is not “widespread anger” but rather widespread approval of Labor’s proposed reform **
    Or something in between – near ‘meh’ on the volume dial using a Flat setting on the equalizer.

  8. I’m generally reluctant to ascribe too much meaning to a small change in opinion polls, but it could be that Labor’s primary vote edging closer to 40 is significant.

    In the lead-up to the 2016 election, the ALP announced a suite of policy initiatives, some of which (like negative gearing reform) could be seen as quite “brave”, in the Sir Humphrey sense. But in the final wash-up, Labor was rewarded at the polls for sticking their policy necks out. Could be that this Newspoll presages a similar development, with some swinging voters appreciating that Labor is articultating a significant policy shift (ie abolition of dividend imputation refunds), part of a piece of moving the Budget away from middle class tax breaks.

    As with all polling, of course, “the trend is your friend”, and we’ll need to see if this uptick in the Labor primary vote is sustained, but this Newspoll, coupled with the Batman result, augers well for fans of serious policy. Certainly, it’s another reminder that our political class is often guilty of demonstrating that they don’t actually know many normal people,

  9. j341983 says:
    Sunday, March 25, 2018 at 9:45 pm
    Given that, I want to see the PPM number. That ALP primary at 39% would have to scare the bejesus out of the Libs.

    The revival of Labor’s PV is also terrible news for the Fakes. They constantly apply themselves to preventing this. Their plan is failing.

  10. better than I’d hoped. very happy to be wrong. How will the Oz spin this? An intense fortnight of anti-Mal destabilisation coming up. PM Dutton before June? if he’s smarter than he appears he’ll know it is his only chance. Others who want the gig might be happy to wait to be LotO after the election and hope Shorten fails. if the libs were smarter than they appear they’d give the job to Bishop. it won’t happen, but if they had a clue they’d try it. I can’t stand her, but she’s better at pretending to be a human than most of them.

  11. Not very surprising. Turnbull and the government have managed to avoid much in the way of any enormous stuff-ups as of late, particularly in contrast to the horror succession of weeks they had during the height of the Barnaby Joyce circus. A status quo result sounds about right.

    That 39-36 PPM must be pretty scary for Turnbull. His PPM leads were pretty much all he had left.

    Only one to go now.

  12. Good evening all,

    The MSM were waiting with headlines ready to go for tomorrow about Shorten, in fact, making a bad decision re the franking policy and as a result labor has gone backwards. Batman would have been airbrushed aside as just a blip.

    “We told you so “the MSM would have shouted from the mountain tops. Knives were out and Shorten under pressure. You get the drift.

    This result has once again, after Batman, proven the MSM are so far out of touch. Benson still is holding onto the theory that labor has increased its primary despite the policy release.

    Just as Batman was a huge result for Shorten, this Newspoll is also huge. The narrative is now set for the week ahead.

    Cheers and a good night to all.

  13. How will the Oz spin this?

    With visible strain:

    In what will come as a shock result for the Government as it heads into the final week of Parliament before the May budget, the Opposition has cemented its lead over the Coalition despite widespread anger over the Labor leader’s $59 billion tax grab.

  14. Perhaps the LNP claiming imminent victory for its $65 billion tax bonanza for business was a factor in the increased Newspoll vote for Labor.

  15. Just saw a new headline on “The Age” website

    “The team that just doesn’t get it” – Greg Baum

    I thought it may have been about the “Turnbull Coalition Team” (that was what was on that strange election symbol in 2016 wasn’t it?) – but no it was the cricket again. Still, Greg Baum’s phrase equally applies to the Federal Coalition, and also to the team of people assembled at Newscorp to promote them.

  16. I don’t think it’s going to get any better for Turnbull with 4 Corners doing a special report on the Super system tomorrow night. 🙂

  17. The LNP have forgotten the first rule of contemporary politics: voters don’t trust them, which is to say they think that politicians lie compulsively. So when a voter hears an LNP voice saying Labor’s plans will hurt x,y or z, voters will either not believe it, or, quite likely, assume that the opposite is true. By protesting against Labor’s tax plans, the LNP are effectively campaigning for Labor. Truly beautiful politics for Labor, who are the comprehensive owners of the politics of egalitarian taxation.

  18. 29 is a loverly number eh what!

    Nice to see some dickheads in the media (and there are no bigger dickheads than Benson) still struggling to come to grips with what we knew last Saturday night – the argument over the Franking Credit cash is over. It’s done. It’s won.

  19. despite widespread anger over the Labor leader’s $59 billion tax grab.

    Yep, it’s made everyone so angry that they are… still going to vote exactly the same way they’ve been intending to for months.

  20. Our great LNP will again be vicious at the 2020 federal election with a 14 seat majority in the House of Representatives and ALP will lose all the seats they gain at the 2016 election

  21. The Oz : “Labor hit’s new heights despite tax plan”. that’s how they’re spinning it – people are voting for them ‘despite’ the proposed closing of a Howard-Costello created tax loophole for wealthy lib voters – not ‘because of’ or even ‘because of the LNP’s corporate tax break at the same time as the bank royal commission and as they further tighten welfare and cut services’ – who’d have thought 53% of votes might prefer a more equitable tax system? This still means there’s about 35-40% of voters who’ll vote against their own self-interest.

  22. ‘Our great LNP will again be vicious at the 2020 federal election…’

    You bet they’ll be vicious. It’s all they’ve got left.

  23. Don’t get too cocky Poll Bludgers, Turnbull’s reset button is bigger than Trump’s and you know it works. the MSM can’t be wrong! Perhaps, just perhaps, some of our super intelligent media “journalists” may possibly twig that it just isn’t so, and it will only 30+ continuous negative Newspolls for them to realise!

  24. The LNP have forgotten the first rule of contemporary politics: voters don’t trust them, which is to say they think that politicians lie compulsively. So when a voter hears an LNP voice saying Labor’s plans will hurt x,y or z, voters will either not believe it, or, quite likely, assume that the opposite is true.

    Isn’t it just that voters are no longer listening to the coalition anymore?

  25. “‘Our great LNP will again be vicious at the 2020 federal election…’”

    ———-

    We know it’s the vicious party. Dutton is obviously its Right Leader.

  26. Of course the result would have been better for Labor if Bill Shorten wasn’t leader.

    (Just thought I’d get in before Rex. 😉 )

  27. “Of course the result would have been better for Labor if Bill Shorten wasn’t leader.”

    ————

    It could be true but we will never know.

  28. quote from Tim Zoehrer on a friend’s FB page about the penalty for Smith and Warner.

    “Line them up in front of every living Australian Test cricketer to hand out their sentence.”

  29. “How will the Oz spin this?

    With visible strain”

    Its getting to the point where spin just wont cut it. I think the Libs have really, seriously undermined themselves by running the “these poor people with low taxable incomes that have $100k disposable incomes” argument. Making themselves look like spivs who believe the punters are all idiots.

    “I don’t think it’s going to get any better for Turnbull with 4 Corners doing a special report on the Super system tomorrow night. ”

    There is that. 🙂

  30. They are all halfwits in the media.Their man is going down like a lead balloon and they dont know how or what to do about it.They themselves dont realise how out of touch with the public they really are.BENSON,KELLY,CROWE,COLLIER,MASSOLA,SHANAHAN etc.Your not relevant anymore.

  31. “Don’t get too cocky Poll Bludgers, Turnbull’s reset button is bigger than Trump’s and you know it works. the MSM can’t be wrong! Perhaps, just perhaps, some of our super intelligent media “journalists” may possibly twig that it just isn’t so, and it will only 30+ continuous negative Newspolls for them to realise!”

    Turnbull is toast the punters are onto him, the only real risk is that they do a last minute switch to someone who resonates (I’m not sure they have this person, maybe Bishop and it is a big gamble) but Turnbull is done put a fork in him.

  32. Just 14 sleeps to go (and an Easter weekend in between) and even The Australian will almost certainly be reporting on Newspoll number 30.

    I have been thinking about this since about number 10. Because if the count keeps going it will just get to be a bigger story (no “reset to zero”) – 31, 32, 33, 34 etc

    And Tony Abbott will have every media person chasing him for a comment – and he will unload! He has also been waiting for this moment for a long time.

    The Australian and Newscorp failed in their “Kill Malcolm” attempt at the end of 2017.

    Here comes the sequel “Kill Malcolm II”. Tony Abbott in a bright yellow jumpsuit!

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