Friday free-for-all

As the wheels begin to turn ahead of a federal election that might be held later this year, a round-up of recent preselection news.

No BludgerTrack update this week as there were no new opinion polls, which might be an issue from time to time now that Essential Research has gone from weekly to fortnightly. Newspoll and Essential will presumably both report next week, followed by a week off for Easter. So in lieu of any polling to analyse, I offer one of my occasional updates on federal preselection action.

Most of this relates to Queensland, where a federal redistribution will formally take effect next week – not that you would notice, as my calculations at the time the draft was published last year found no seat’s margin had changed by more than 0.6%. Nonetheless, BludgerTrack will henceforth be using the post-redistribution margins for it seats result projections. Redistributions for Victoria and the Australian Capital Territory, which will each gain a new seat, and South Australia, which will lose one, are presently in their early stages, and are likely to be finalised around September.

• Following his appointment as High Commissioner to the United Kingdom, George Brandis’s Queensland Liberal Senate vacancy has been filled by Brisbane barrister Amanda Stoker. Stoker won a vote of the Liberal National Party state council from a field of 12, of whom the other reported frontrunners were Joanna Lindgren, who had a stint in the Senate after filling a casual vacancy in May 2015, but was unsuccessful as the sixth candidate on the LNP ticket in 2016; Amanda Camm, a Mackay regional councillor; Andrew Wines, a Brisbane City councillor; and Teresa Harding, director of the Queensland government’s open data policy and twice unsuccessful candidate for Blair. Stoker was a favourite candidate of religious conservatives, and emphasised the point by speaking at a pro-life rally on Sunday. In this she makes a contrast with Brandis, a noted moderate.

• Labor’s candidate to take on Peter Dutton in his Brisbane seat of Dickson is Ali France, a motivational speaker and former television producer who lost a leg in a car accident in 2011, whose father is former Bligh government minister Peter Lawlor. France is aligned with the Left, and won preselection ahead of the Right’s Linda Lavarch, former state Attorney-General and wife of Keating government Attorney-General Michael Lavarch, who cut Dutton’s margin from 6.7% to 1.6% when she ran in 2016. The redistribution has slightly improved Dutton’s position, increasing his margin to 2.0%. Since winning preselection, France has faced media scrutiny over her past pronouncements against offshore detention, which have since been removed from her social media accounts.

• The Cairns Post reports Elida Faith, of the Left faction Community and Public Sector Union, has won Labor preselection for the Cairns and Cape York Peninsula seat of Leichhardt. Faith first won endorsement to run as the Left’s candidate ahead of Tania Major, an indigenous youth advocate and former Young Australian of the Year, and Allan Templeton, an electrician. She then won the preselection vote over Richie Bates, a Cairns Regional Councillor and member of the Right. Leichhardt has been held for the Liberals and then the LNP since 1996 by Warren Entsch, except following his temporary retirement in 2007, after which the seat was held for a term by Jim Turnour of Labor.

• Jo Briskey, chief executive of parent advocacy organisation The Parenthood and a former organiser with the Left faction United Voice union, will be Labor’s candidate in the Brisbane seat of Bonner. Briskey won preselection ahead of Delena Amsters, a physiotherapist aligned with the Right. While Bonner is a naturally marginal seat, Labor’s only win since its creation in 2004 came in 2007, and it has at all other times been held by the present LNP incumbent, Ross Vasta.

• Anika Wells, a lawyer with Maurice Blackburn, appears set to succeed the retiring Wayne Swan in Lilley. Wells has Swan’s endorsement, and shares his alignment with the Australian Workers Union sub-faction of the Right.

• Zac Beers, former industrial painter and scaffolder and organiser for the Right faction Australian Workers Union, has been preselected for a second run at the central Queensland seat of Flynn, where he cut LNP member Ken O’Dowd’s margin from 6.5% to 1.0% in 2016. Beers won preselection ahead of Gordon Earnshaw, a worker for Bechtel Power Corporation.

• Andrew Bartlett, who filled the Greens’ Queensland Senate vacancy arising from Larissa Waters’ Section 44 disqualification last year, will seek and presumably win preselection in the lower house seat of Brisbane. This leaves the field clear for Waters to seek to recover her Senate seat. Brisbane has been in conservative hands since 2010, and has been held for the LNP since 2016 by Trevor Evans. Bartlett ran for the Greens in 2010, his first entry with the party after his former life as leader of the Australian Democrats.

Meanwhile in New South Wales, Labor has preselected its candidates for the Sydney seats of Banks and Reid, where it suffered historically unusual defeats in 2013 and 2016. In turn:

• The candidate in Banks will again be Chris Gambian, an official with the Left faction Community and Public Sector Union, who halved the 2.8% Liberal margin when he ran in 2016. The Australian reports Gambian won a preselection ballot ahead of Lucy Mannering, a lawyer and the ex-wife of former Australian Workers Union national secretary Paul Howes, by 139 votes to 116, as adjusted by the affirmative action loading. The member for the seat is David Coleman, who became the first Liberal to win the seat since 1949 when he gained it in 2013.

• Labor’s candidate in Reid will be Sam Crosby, executive director of Labor think tank the McKell Institute. Crosby easily won preselection ahead of local branch member Frank Alafaci, by 120 votes to 19. Reid has been held by Craig Laundy since 2013, when he became the first Liberal ever to win the seat.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,530 comments on “Friday free-for-all”

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  4. Local under 14s playing over weekend took the ball home overnight and melted candle wax on it. Lasted one hit.
    Remember when every fielder was skimming the ball back to the keeper to rough it up. Didn’t do as much damage as one good six into the stands.
    Remember the bottle top and someone eating the ball?
    We should finish the game without the full team, that’s never been done before that I can recall.
    Then just get over it.
    And Turnbull, no one has been harmed by this activity, unlike some of your actions. So stfu.

  5. C@t – to be fair Sutherland could hardly have announced the decision to stand Smith and Warner down at noon. It would have been 2 or 3 am in South Africa and CA would need to communiticate with the team management and affected players first. I think they actually got this one right.

  6. Turnbull went further than just answer a question.

    He let it be known that he’d contacted Cricket Australia and had demanded action.

    None of his effin’ business, in my opinion. He just jumped on the classic wowser bandwagon and picked on someone who (for the time being) is on an even lower moral plane than he is.

    I disagree with C@tmomna. The cricketers have let their country down. Whatever else they are, they are certainly the national team of an ikonic sport. “Cultural ambassadors” if you like. The phrase “It’s just not cricket” applies.

    I should confess that I don’t give two hoots about the game anymore. I don’t know who the players are. I don’t know why there is so much passion about Warner. I haven’t got a clue who Cameron Bancroft is, and couldn’t care less that I haven’t.

    But these guys, in this sport which occupies a unique position in the national psyche – for better or worse – have shamed themselves, and therefore Australia’s reputation as fair dealers and fair players.

    I’ve never been a fan of the sledging. It’s always seemed to me to be a distasteful and unnecessary aspect of on-field behaviour. I’m actually glad that these men have been hoisted on their on petards. Ball tampering takes things to a whole new level. It’s a symbol of what’s not only wrong with the game, butcwhat’scwrongvwith us and the whole rotten process of (forgive the pun) treating everything as simply a matter of spin.

    Outright cheating is not to be tolerated, nor is it something by which Australia should be known.

  8. Bushfire Bill,
    What specifically do you disagree with me about?

    *trigger alert * I’m not trying to be a smart arsk! Just couldn’t figure it out.

  10. Did Turnbull say ‘heads will roll’?

    Last time he said that was after the census.

    Was anyone sacked (apart from some low level operatives) over that?

  11. Andrew_E,
    Your conclusion is technically correct but I have always thought that James Sutherland is wishy washy and this was my opportunity to say it! 🙂

  12. C@t, something about the cricketers not owing Australia fair play as a nation, rather than as paid sports people.

    Almost any other sport would be exempt. But not cricket. It’s too ikonic.

    (Take this in the context of my not being a follower of the game).

  13. http://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2138742/forget-us-trade-tariffs-donald-trumps-real-war-coming-soon

    Steve777 @ #1438 Sunday, March 25th, 2018 – 6:45 pm

    Bolton is someone I don’t want anywhere near the levers of power. Especially if the USA starts a war, this Government will think about it for 3 nanoseconds and say “All the way with DJT”.

    Steve

    I have not been here much because frankly I am far too depressed/scared. Bolton is a maniac.

    Now If Russia were to find some Noavachak or polonium, there is at least one target that the whole world would cheer!!

    No but seriously this guy is scary triple plus.

    I imagine right NOW the trucks are rolling with Russian weapons towards Iran and anywhere there their troops may be. Question is will Russia ALSO give them nukes or guarantee supply. My guess is yes. Russia will not allow an enemy ie the USA to have a foothold in North Iran because of the Caspian sea. Same with N Korea. Just too damn close to allow them a foot hold.

    Same with the USA. They would not allow Russia a foothold in Mexico or Canada (or of course Cuba).

    WWIII is coming our way. I hope someone can stop it but I am pessimistic.

    Frankly I feel more worried now than at any time other than the Cuban crisis.

  14. …and picked on someone who (for the time being) is on an even lower moral plane than he is.

    Lower? Steve Smith hasn’t done anything like wreck the NBN and Energy policy or give a nod and a wink to Dutton and others dogwhistling (or bellowing) to racists. All Smith did was cheat in a game.

  16. You’re exaggerating DTT.

    Bolton is a nut case, but even Trump wouldn’t go to war to achieve better ratings.

    For one thing, the generals wouldn’t allow it.

  19. Whoever it was I don’t agree. It’s no big problem.

    And it is highly inappropriate for the PM to buy into this. He has no stake in this game except self-aggrandisement.

  20. John Reidy,
    Whatever Malcolm Turnbull said today will be of no relevance even tomorrow. He just wanted to forcefully insert himself into the big story of the day and say what he thought people wanted to hear.

  23. I’ve heard a story from the days when sheffield shield players got Five pounds per day. , provided there was play on the day. Towards stumps on day three, one team was 9 wickets down, and a zillion runs behind. The bowler was approached by his captain, who was a Test player, and told . “don’t for heavens sake get this bunny out. If we have to front up tomorrow, that’s another Five quid in our pouch. Bowl 18 inches outside the leg stump. if he hits the ball in the air, we’ll drop it!” The bowler is reassured that they’ll let him get the wicket for his stats next day. And so they got to stumps.
    The captain takes the first over next day, and bowls the tailender first ball. The bowler is aggrieved, but at least he has the five Quid.!
    The two teams go down together to the nearest pub, and by lunchtime, they’ve spent their 5 Pounds!
    That was the way it was when cricket was a sport, and not a business, even though five quid was about the basic wage!.
    Maybe if we paid these excuses for honest men the same sort of salaries, They might behave like honest men!

  26. Steve Smith is no long the captain of the Rajasthan Royals. I wonder how much money Smith’s decision to cheat is going to cost him over the next few years, it could be millions.

  28. Bushfire Bill @ #1464 Sunday, March 25th, 2018 – 7:41 pm

    You’re exaggerating DTT.

    Bolton is a nut case, but even Trump wouldn’t go to war to achieve better ratings.

    For one thing, the generals wouldn’t allow it.

    Bill

    I wish I were exaggerating. The thing is that there is a faction amongst the generals that WANTS war. This group want to stike now before China gets any stonger, or of course Russia.

    Like Hermione Grainger interpreting Dolores Umbridge’s speech, I suggest you carefully read Putin’s statements lately. There was an obvious reason for him to announce his new weapons. He was going for deterrence. He was telling the West. Do not attack Russia or her allies because this is what we have.

    Forget analysing if it is true or not, because he was clearly trying to signal deterrence. Presumably his spies already had wind of the two new replacements and that is why he made his March 1 speech. There was a bit of electioneering there too, but he could have announced two new weapons already known to the USA to achieve the same political result, not six.

    I assume there will be military people analysing the situation right now and they will make a judgement about how safe it is to attack Iran/NK/Russia/China. if they think that by going for broke NOW before Russia has its hypersonic weapons ready then that is what they will do.

    Trouble is they have a history of underestimating Russia, like Kennedy not knowing that there were ALREADY 80 nukes in Cuba, so Russia could safely back down.

  30. Steve Smith is no long the captain of the Rajasthan Royals.

    Where are you hearing that? Warner could be similarly impacted.

  31. briefly @ #1457 Sunday, March 25th, 2018 – 8:30 pm

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-afghanistan-russia/russia-denies-aiding-afghan-taliban-in-wake-of-u-s-generals-comments-idUSKBN1H1064

    KABUL (Reuters) – Russia has rejected comments by NATO’s top commander in Afghanistan that it has been supporting and even supplying weapons to the Taliban, in a clash of words that underlines growing tension over Moscow’s involvement in the conflict.

    I suppose the US also denies arming and assisting Mujahideen against the Russians, many of those Mujahideen later becoming Taliban. Schadenfreude much!

  33. daretotread. @ #1463 Sunday, March 25th, 2018 – 8:38 pm

    http://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2138742/forget-us-trade-tariffs-donald-trumps-real-war-coming-soon

    Steve777 @ #1438 Sunday, March 25th, 2018 – 6:45 pm

    Bolton is someone I don’t want anywhere near the levers of power. Especially if the USA starts a war, this Government will think about it for 3 nanoseconds and say “All the way with DJT”.

    Steve

    I have not been here much because frankly I am far too depressed/scared. Bolton is a maniac.

    Now If Russia were to find some Noavachak or polonium, there is at least one target that the whole world would cheer!!

    No but seriously this guy is scary triple plus.

    I imagine right NOW the trucks are rolling with Russian weapons towards Iran and anywhere there their troops may be. Question is will Russia ALSO give them nukes or guarantee supply. My guess is yes. Russia will not allow an enemy ie the USA to have a foothold in North Iran because of the Caspian sea. Same with N Korea. Just too damn close to allow them a foot hold.

    Same with the USA. They would not allow Russia a foothold in Mexico or Canada (or of course Cuba).

    WWIII is coming our way. I hope someone can stop it but I am pessimistic.

    Frankly I feel more worried now than at any time other than the Cuban crisis.

    Go have a cup of tea, a Bex and a good lie down.

  34. The Turnbulls ‘power couple’ are being given a big splash in the womans weekly. Is that the 1st or 2nd big pr effort?

  37. bemused says:
    Sunday, March 25, 2018 at 9:01 pm

    I suppose the US also denies arming and assisting Mujahideen against the Russians, many of those Mujahideen later becoming Taliban. Schadenfreude much!

    The US never denied arming the Muhajideen. They boasted about it. Respective Russian and American policies in central Asia has been responsible all along for the development of violent extra-State organisations. They still are.

  38. briefly @ #1487 Sunday, March 25th, 2018 – 9:12 pm

    bemused says:
    Sunday, March 25, 2018 at 9:01 pm

    I suppose the US also denies arming and assisting Mujahideen against the Russians, many of those Mujahideen later becoming Taliban. Schadenfreude much!

    The US never denied arming the Muhajideen. They boasted about it. Respective Russian and American policies in central Asia has been responsible all along for the development of violent extra-State organisations. They still are.

    And you support the Americans in their big whinge!
    Why?

  39. THE fallout from Australia’s disgraceful ball-tampering scandal in Cape Town looks set to impact Steve Smith in the Indian Premier League.

    Smith, who stood down as captain for the remainder of the third Test on Sunday, is set to bet sacked as captain of the Rajasthan Royals in the IPL, according to reports out of India.

    Indian outlet Republic World claims it has been told by an unnamed high-ranking official from Rajasthan that the franchise has already decided to strip Smith of captaincy.

    https://www.foxsports.com.au/cricket/australia/reports-rajasthan-royals-set-to-sack-steve-smith-as-captain/news-story/eb26c5a6d24b95652f4d842ab6bdf8fd

    Will Warner also be let go by his IPL team Hyderabad?

  40. For God’s sake… Putin’s reason for announcing his weapons and not not killing off opponents was that he was running for re-election. Putin cares a lot more about protecting his own backside than anything else. Why does he suddenly change his tune once the re-election is assured?

    Putin is many things, but stupid isn’t one.

  41. jenauthor @ #1369 Sunday, March 25th, 2018 – 5:10 pm

    All teams have likely have to have been inviolved in such things … just ask past players.

    Neato. I’m going to apply that logic to IP and traffic law, and notify everyone that’s ever been caught speeding or downloading illegal movies/music/software/whatever that they now have access to the “but everyone else does it, so it’s fine” defense. I’m sure they’ll be delighted.

    Hell, I guess it works for steroids in sport too. Will everyone stop hating Lance Armstrong now? He didn’t do anything that tons of past athletes haven’t done, after all.

  42. Just like Trump, Bolton and Pompeo have prospered by advocating extreme positions. Whether they will take extreme actions is unknowable, but one thing is for sure: all eyes will be on Trump. He will enjoy that.

  43. bemused @ #1488 Sunday, March 25th, 2018 – 9:14 pm

    briefly @ #1487 Sunday, March 25th, 2018 – 9:12 pm

    bemused says:
    Sunday, March 25, 2018 at 9:01 pm

    I suppose the US also denies arming and assisting Mujahideen against the Russians, many of those Mujahideen later becoming Taliban. Schadenfreude much!

    The US never denied arming the Muhajideen. They boasted about it. Respective Russian and American policies in central Asia has been responsible all along for the development of violent extra-State organisations. They still are.

    And you support the Americans in their big whinge!
    Why?

    The ‘Great Game’ has been going on for well over a century. In the meantime innocent (yeah – children and babies) are dying while the big powers fight their proxy war against each other. Whatever the past, or even the present, sins of the USA I don’t think any pleasure can be taken from the fact that Putin is cynically enabling more murder and mayhem in Afghanistan solely because it distracts and discomforts the USA.

  45. Why on earth didn’t they just blame Joe the camera man or their mum, worked before.

    Um yeah, Joe just asked me to hold this piece of tape for him for a minute.

    Ah, um, me Mum put this bit of tape on my groin cause I had pulled it, didn’t notice she had done that till I was a having a scratch and it stuck to my fingers.

  47. Well he did it! Flat earthers unite!!!

    The Global Fellowship of Flat Earthers. There’ll probably be a few recruits on the Far Right (which includes sections of the “Liberals”.)

  48. The cricket imbroglio is clearly a creation of Turnbull’s operatives to distract attention from the impending Newspoll. Clearly Smith and Bancroft are secret Liberal party operatives and will no doubt be well rewarded for generating and inflating this incident. There is no other explanation for their bizarre behaviour.

    See, there is a link between cricket and a polling blog!

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