Monday miscellany

Passing observations on the Batman by-election, the Cottesloe by-election (look it up), and the state of the Senate after Section 44.

I don’t believe we’ll be getting any sort of a federal opinion poll this week, with Newspoll presumably holding off through South Australian election week to return before the resumption of parliament next week, and Essential Research having an off-week in their fortnightly schedule. You can find a post updating progress in late counting in South Australia here; other than that, for the sake of a new general post, I relate the following:

Ben Raue at The Tally Room has a very illuminating map showing the pattern of swings within Batman, showing a largely status quo result north of the Bell Street curtain, but a quite substantial swing to Labor in the presumed Greens stronghold area in the south. I’ll have more on the Batman by-election in today’s Crikey, if you’re a subscriber.

• Lost in the excitement, the weekend’s other by-election has entirely escaped mention on this site. It was held in the blue-ribbon Western Australian state seat of Cottesloe, to replace Colin Barnett. This produced the predicted walkover for Liberal candidate David Honey, an 59-year-old Alcoa executive and former state party president. Honey finished the night on 59.8% of the primary vote, and 70.2% on two-party preferred over the Greens. At the time of Barnett’s resignation in January, it was generally assumed the party could not let pass an opportunity to add a woman to a parliamentary ranks, but Honey nonetheless won a preselection vote by twenty to eight ahead of BHP Billiton lawyer Emma Roberts. The Liberals elected only two women out of thirteen to the lower house in 2017, along with one out of eight to the upper. At the 2013 election, the party’s lower house contingent included only four women out of thirty-one in the lower house, along with five out of seventen in the upper house, two of whom suffered preselection defeats going into last year’s election.

• A reallocation of Senators’ three-year and six-year terms has been conducted after the Section 44 disqualifications, affecting every state except Victoria. This involved allocating six-year terms to the first six elected candidates in the recounts conducted to fill the vacancies, and three-year terms going to those elected to positions seven through twelve, who will be facing re-election (almost certainly) at the next federal election.

There are two pieces of good news for the Liberals, who gain a long-term seat in New South Wales at the expense of the Nationals, and in Tasmania go from two long-term and two short-term seats to three and one. Fiona Nash’s long-term vacancy in New South Wales goes to Concetta Fierravanti-Wells, whose short-term vacancy has been filled by splashy newcomer Jim Molan. The vacancies in Tasmania, Stephen Perry of the Liberals and Jacqui Lambie of Jacqui Lambie, were both long-term, and have both gone to lower order Liberals, Bushby and Duniam. The one short-term Liberal position goes to Richard Colbeck, returning to parliament after his (provisional) defeat in 2016.

In Western Australia, the Greens order shuffles after Scott Ludlam’s departure with Rachel Siewert taking his long term, and Jordon Steele-John filling Siewert’s short-term vacancy. The loss of Skye Kakoschke-Moore in South Australia has cost the Nick Xenophon Team a seat because the successor to her short term, Tim Storer, has become estranged from the party since the election. It’s a similar story for One Nation in Queensland, where Malcolm Roberts’ short-term vacancy has been filled by the party’s number three candidate, Fraser Anning, who has eventually resolved to sit as an independent after a dispute with Pauline Hanson.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,004 comments on “Monday miscellany”

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  1. I think the Coalition’s marine park plan must be opposed for the same reason that Labor’s CPRS needed to be opposed in 2009: it is a woefully inadequate response to a major problem. It is not worthwhile to legitimize such an inadequate response. The Greens need to be making the case for the strongest possible protections, not settling for tokenistic efforts from a major party that is trying to blackmail them by saying, “Support our marginally-better-than-nothing plan or the environment gets it.” Labor and the Coalition have a nasty habit of selling the Australian people short and expecting Independents and smaller parties to reward this bad behaviour.

  2. The best way to improve environmental and climate outcomes in Australia is to keep the Coalition out of Government. The Coalition parties are the enemies of the environment and enemies of climate action.

    In practical terms, that means getting Labor into Government. There is no alternative in the foreseeable future. That means Labor voters have to preference Greens above the Coalition, especially in the Senate, or in a lower house seat that is in play. And Green voters have to preference Labor. Maybe some Labor and Green voters will have to hold their nose while they do so, but that’s how it is.

  3. He also agreed that the archbishop’s robes couldn’t be moved to the side or parted in the middle to allow him to reveal his genitals.

    Mr Dearing told the court the archbishop’s robes were heavy, difficult to manoeuvre and required another person to help put them on and take them off.

    It’s not funny at all. It’s ludicrous and horrible that so many excuses are made.

  4. C
    ‘He also agreed that the archbishop’s robes couldn’t be moved to the side or parted in the middle to allow him to reveal his genitals. ‘

    I was an altar boy for many years.

    He is lying.

    The chasuble has to be lifted by the priest over his head and shoulders to get it on. It does not have a parting in the middle but it has partings on both sides.

    Since it is light enough to lift over the shoulders there should be no problem with lifting the front in order to expose the genitals.

    I hope the prosecution has the wits to do a physical demonstration of this in the court. (Complete with dildo, of course.)

    https://www.google.com.au/search?q=image+of+chasuble&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&client=firefox-b&gfe_rd=cr&dcr=0&ei=22yzWv7eEujc8wfW7aDgBg

  5. Nicholas
    Go talk to the Black Wiggle, not us.
    Explain to him that on issue after issue after issue the Greens are trashing their brand.

  6. It’s not funny at at all. It’s ludicrous and horrible that so many excuses are made.

    We see this so often with people who try to make excuses for rape or family violence. Frankly it disgusts me.

  7. boomy1 @ #2905 Thursday, March 22nd, 2018 – 3:46 pm

    He also agreed that the archbishop’s robes couldn’t be moved to the side or parted in the middle to allow him to reveal his genitals.

    Mr Dearing told the court the archbishop’s robes were heavy, difficult to manoeuvre and required another person to help put them on and take them off.

    It’s not funny at at all. It’s ludicrous and horrible that so many excuses are made.

    Considering the number of documented abuses by many priests, over many years it does not seem to have been a barrier in the past! 🙁 🙁 🙁 🙁 🙁

  8. Boerwar:

    I have no knowledge of ecclesiastical attire so cannot comment other than to express my amazement at the nitty gritty ridiculousness Pell’s colleagues are going to in order to defend him.

    He can’t physically remove his robes by himself? Please.

  9. C
    All stops are out. Money is no object. The ‘best’ legal advice is to hand. The best barristers. All against a motley collection of mostly destroyed individuals.

    Pell should have had the decency to resign as an atonement for the sins of the Church.

    The bastards are doubling down.

  10. “George Pell committal hearing told robes too heavy to commit sexual offences”

    George Pell wore robes all his waking hours?

    It would be funny if it weren’t so… disgusting.

  11. this proposal is seriously where the rubber meets the road: either the Greens live up to their name and champion the permanent conservation of our natural environment, or they pack up and go home.

    Yep. I agree completely.

    Hopefully they do the right thing

  12. Boerwar:

    The ‘best’ legal advice is to hand. The best barristers. All against a motley collection of mostly destroyed individuals

    Totally right, and it pisses me off no end.

    He couldn’t take his robes off unassisted is the weazly-est of the weazly of defences, and a total punch in the face to the countless numbers of people the world over who were preyed upon, and violently assualted against their will as minors by men they were taught to trust and have faith in.

  13. Presser backfires on Turnbull when businessman admits tax cuts would be funnelled into factory upgrades and employees would get the usual bonuses and CPI under their current EBA.
    ___
    And how are factory upgrades financially justified? More automation and lower worker headcount, that’s how.

  14. I, quite thankfully, know nothing whatsoever about the practicalities of committing sexual assault while wearing an archbishop’s robes. But surely they would need to be designed in such away to allow him to go to the toilet when the need arises, right? And if you are able to pee while wearing them, you are just as capable of doing much worse things with the same equipment.

  15. ‘Steve777 says:
    Thursday, March 22, 2018 at 7:56 pm

    “George Pell committal hearing told robes too heavy to commit sexual offences”

    George Pell wore robes all his waking hours?

    It would be funny if it weren’t so… disgusting.’

    At least part of the argument is that he would have been fully-robed during some of the interactions with the choir, and in particular those interactions during which he is alleged to have sexually assaulted the boys.

  16. @Dio

    C@t
    “Half the companies that signed this letter didn’t pay ANY company tax in 2015-16. How will a company tax cut help them pay higher wages?”

    The flip-side is to ask why do half these companies care if there is a tax cut as it won’t affect them directly.
    I don’t know what the answer is but I’m sure there is one. I assume they will get some indirect benefit.

    I wondered about this too. Are companies that do not pay tax being good citizen members of the BCA and coming out in solidarity? Are they sick of playing so much for creative accounting? Are they ideologues who worship at the alter of Friedrich Hayek, Milton Friedman and James M. Buchanan?

    You can make just as much money for your shareholders if you are an ethical corporation, sometimes even more by your promotion of ethics. I know I am in the happy position of being able to pay a bit more for the products of companies whose ethical positions I support. So something else is going on.

  17. ‘BK says:
    Thursday, March 22, 2018 at 8:03 pm

    Presser backfires on Turnbull when businessman admits tax cuts would be funnelled into factory upgrades and employees would get the usual bonuses and CPI under their current EBA.
    ___
    And how are factory upgrades financially justified? More automation and lower worker headcount, that’s how.’

    The thought would be to get them in place any old how and then let Labor deal with the enormous budgetary, social and economic consequences.

    IMO Labor should promise right now that it will repeal the tax for all companies with a market cap of, say, more than $10 million.

  18. Yeah, like anyone who’s has a raging hard-on in their life is all of a sudden stopped by heavy clothing. Still can nut on your face.
    These people need to understand, they’ve poisoned the well.

  19. Steve777:

    The best way to improve environmental and climate outcomes in Australia is to keep the Coalition out of Government. The Coalition parties are the enemies of the environment and enemies of climate action.

    In practical terms, that means getting Labor into Government. There is no alternative in the foreseeable future. That means Labor voters have to preference Greens above the Coalition, especially in the Senate, or in a lower house seat that is in play. And Green voters have to preference Labor. Maybe some Labor and Green voters will have to hold their nose while they do so, but that’s how it is.

    Well said.

  20. Its taken the greens almost 48 hrs to respond to the news about the tories intentions regarding Marine Parks and for those 2 days I kept wondering why no response from the greens on such a fundamental area to their policy and voters.

    The reason became clear this arvo – currently they plan to stiff the environment, yet again, stiff the thousands of supporters and voters and help the tories avoid being held to account.

    But they have form doing this in spades –

    – the Greens sided with the tories in a deal which saw 100,000 people lose the pension and another 270,000 have their benefits reduced.

    – they opposed efforts to redraw company tax that is now going unpaid because of the LNP’s loopholes in the dividend imputation system and blocked Labor attempted to expose more of the companies which haven’t been paying any tax.

    – The Greens stopped the Malaysian Solution, again siding with the tories .

    – expressed no support recently to FWO for increases in the minimum wage – again the same position of the tories.

    – opposed efforts to close unfair loopholes in the dividend imputation system currently costing taxpayers almost $6 B pa.

    – Voted with the tories to prevent environment protection via the CPRS.
    The ALP fought for the environment, but the the Coalition of the Libs and
    Greens joined forces beat them and almost a decade later, Australia still has
    no meaningful policy to tackle climate change .

    – The Greens have struck deals with the Coalition on the debt ceiling and
    multinational tax avoidance .

    – When Victoria (under Bracks/Brumby) was encouraging the building of
    windfarms, and under constant attack for doing so by NIMBY types, there was
    not a word of support from the Greens.

    – Ditto with removal of cattle from the High Plains – and at least two Labor
    MPs could plausibly argue that they lost their seats for supporting that, a price
    no Green MP has been willing to pay.

    – The Greens have been unable to deliver anything of major significant for
    the environment since 1992.

    So whats next ? Support the $56 B company tax cut ?

    Seriously?

  21. When Liberals are placed in charge of major projects, they almost always mess it up. Rail and transport infrastructure like roads, prison management, education reform, and health infrastructure.

    The failure of Barnett government ministers to question poor advice, a construction contract that left the state “commercially impotent” and massive tension between bureaucrats were key factors leading to the Perth Children’s Hospital project going off the rails, a report has found.

    The findings are contained in a bipartisan parliamentary committee report into the problems with the hospital, which is finally expected to open in May — close to three years behind schedule.

    The committee found criticism of the performance of head contractor John Holland was warranted, following problems including long-running lead contamination in water and the installation of asbestos-tainted roof panels.

    But it pointed to poor government oversight as a major cause of why the project went wrong.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-03-22/perth-childrens-hospital-report-blasts-barnett-government/9575124

  22. catprog
    If the Greens don’t vote with Labor then some protections will be in place.
    If the Greens vote with Labor then their will be no protections at all.

    I am reminded about the people complain about the Greens and the carbon tax.

    The complaint then was they held out for perfect and got nothing.

    Is it better to get something then nothing?

    May I point out that you are comparing something intangible and diffuse, carbon emissions, with something physical and localised, a marine park.

    The way to achieve reducing the first one tells us almost nothing about how to protect the second.

    I’d also like to bring this fact to your attention: the Coalition proposal transfers areas considered high conservation value and originally proposed as ‘no take’, to the special purpose zone where trawling can occur.

    Do you still consider the proposal merely ‘something’?

    Let’s call it what it really is: environmental vandalism.

  23. When Liberals are placed in charge of major projects, they almost always mess it up. Rail and transport infrastructure like roads, prison management, education reform, and health infrastructure.
    ____
    That’s because they are obsessed about their price without considering the cost.

  24. In full vestments for ceremonial purposes, Pell as bishop, would have worn a cope, chasuble and alb.
    The cope is heavy but opens at the front. The chasuble opens at the sides. The white under garment, which is loose (for functional reasons) the ‘alb’, opens neither at the side nor the front but is made of very light material.

    Note that in these images Pell has no difficulty raising the gear (less the alb) with his arms.

    Note also that the prices for some of the bishop’s gear is astronomical. Sackcloth and ashes and the vow of poverty they are not:

    https://www.matthewfsheehan.net/bishops-items/bishops-attire.html

  25. https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/03/19/monday-miscellany-2/comment-page-58/#comment-2766735

    Unless only babies are allowed to immigrate, which is not the case, population growth by immigration will always result in population growth spread across a greater spread of ages than growth by birth rate. Places with high birth rates have a high percentage of children and we do not. Working age immigrants contribute to society, while babies and small children require lots of investment for future contributions. My statement stands.

    Population is a global issue, not a national issue.

    Immigration controls are a largely system of discrimination against the non-rich of poor nations who face a low likelihood of getting a visa compared to rich people. The are about putting people through bureaucratic hoops because of where they were born. They are the tool of people trying to do over people poorer than them. They should be phased out around the world.

  26. It is high time for peg to cut and paste some huge lumps of text proving that bottom trawling is good for marine parks and biodiversity.

  27. @Lizzie

    Their four-bedroom home in one of Gladstone’s newly built housing estates cost them $650,000.

    Six years later, Gladstone’s mining boom is over, the work’s dried up, the property market is oversaturated with brand new homes, and rental prices have plummeted.

    Philip and Aleisha’s home is worth less than $450,000.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-03-21/real-estate-boom-town-where-most-homes-now-sell-for-a-loss/9566710?pfmredir=sm

    Redgum sang about this in 1984: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rSS9N-JEzH8

    So sorry to see this happen again 🙁

  28. Tom the first and best @ #2932 Thursday, March 22nd, 2018 – 8:19 pm

    Unless only babies are allowed to immigrate, which is not the case, population growth by immigration will always result in population growth spread across a greater spread of ages than growth by birth rate. Places with high birth rates have a high percentage of children and we do not. Working age immigrants contribute to society, while babies and small children require lots of investment for future contributions. My statement stands.

    Sorry, but it just doesn’t. From the experts …

    http://demographics.treasury.gov.au/content/_download/australias_demographic_challenges/html/adc-04.asp

    But increased migration cannot prevent our population from ageing. This is because migrants who come to Australia will age along with the rest of the population. To maintain Australia’s existing age structure through immigration would require increases in immigration every year — and the increases would need to become progressively larger and larger to take account of the ageing of the migrants themselves. While there are undoubted benefits in maintaining net overseas migration, migration cannot stop the ageing of our population.

    So, the question remains …. why do you want a bigger population?

  29. What’s the likelihood of finance reform that results in a coalition that isn’t beholden to fossil fuel interests? How long until big solar is bigger than big coal, and can donate more?

  30. Di Natale’s venture into ‘Labor Lite with Organic Sweet Potato Wedges’ is a disaster for the Greens.

    Real conservationists are finally waking up that parking with the Greens might be romantic but it is also fruitless for the environment.

  31. ‘Bonza says:
    Thursday, March 22, 2018 at 8:25 pm

    What’s the likelihood of finance reform that results in a coalition that isn’t beholden to fossil fuel interests? How long until big solar is bigger than big coal, and can donate more?’

    These are two good questions, IMO.

  32. Asha Leu

    check out the sales blurb that goes with the “Paulus Cope, Chasuble, Dalmatic and Mitre
    $10,169.00” Sacre Beaujolais alright !!

    .
    The Paulus Set is sure to make a statement. The beautiful gold woven brocade design transforms the cope, chasuble, dalmatic and mitre into exquisite works of art. Purchase the pieces separately or as part of a unique set. The set makes a great addition to any special service. The brocade cope is enhanced with hand embroidery on the yoke, central band and sleeve bands. The Paulus Chasuble includes hand embroidery at the bottom of the orphrey and the Paulus brocade dalmatic includes an inside stole. A matching mitre is available to round off the set.

  33. BW @8:18PM: so now I know where to go if I want to set up as a fake Bishop. Do they demand an ID – a “Proof of Consecration” as it were?

  34. CPRS – not perfect but shit loads better than what was in place
    Libs Marine Parks – destroying what might not be perfect but is already in place.

  35. He also agreed that the archbishop’s robes couldn’t be moved to the side or parted in the middle to allow him to reveal his genitals.

    1. Pell wasn’t an Archbishop when the offences were said to have occurred.

    2. What about all the other priests and bishops who committed sexual offences? They must have found a way.

  36. catprog
    that is the debate.

    Yeah that’s the thing though… it’s not a debate.

    On one side are the scientists and conservationists. That’s the side Labor is on. On the other side is the Coalition and, potentially, the Greens.

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