Monday miscellany

Passing observations on the Batman by-election, the Cottesloe by-election (look it up), and the state of the Senate after Section 44.

I don’t believe we’ll be getting any sort of a federal opinion poll this week, with Newspoll presumably holding off through South Australian election week to return before the resumption of parliament next week, and Essential Research having an off-week in their fortnightly schedule. You can find a post updating progress in late counting in South Australia here; other than that, for the sake of a new general post, I relate the following:

• Ben Raue at The Tally Room has a very illuminating map showing the pattern of swings within Batman, showing a largely status quo result north of the Bell Street curtain, but a quite substantial swing to Labor in the presumed Greens stronghold area in the south. I’ll have more on the Batman by-election in today’s Crikey, if you’re a subscriber.

• Lost in the excitement, the weekend’s other by-election has entirely escaped mention on this site. It was held in the blue-ribbon Western Australian state seat of Cottesloe, to replace Colin Barnett. This produced the predicted walkover for Liberal candidate David Honey, an 59-year-old Alcoa executive and former state party president. Honey finished the night on 59.8% of the primary vote, and 70.2% on two-party preferred over the Greens. At the time of Barnett’s resignation in January, it was generally assumed the party could not let pass an opportunity to add a woman to a parliamentary ranks, but Honey nonetheless won a preselection vote by twenty to eight ahead of BHP Billiton lawyer Emma Roberts. The Liberals elected only two women out of thirteen to the lower house in 2017, along with one out of eight to the upper. At the 2013 election, the party’s lower house contingent included only four women out of thirty-one in the lower house, along with five out of seventen in the upper house, two of whom suffered preselection defeats going into last year’s election.

• A reallocation of Senators’ three-year and six-year terms has been conducted after the Section 44 disqualifications, affecting every state except Victoria. This involved allocating six-year terms to the first six elected candidates in the recounts conducted to fill the vacancies, and three-year terms going to those elected to positions seven through twelve, who will be facing re-election (almost certainly) at the next federal election.

There are two pieces of good news for the Liberals, who gain a long-term seat in New South Wales at the expense of the Nationals, and in Tasmania go from two long-term and two short-term seats to three and one. Fiona Nash’s long-term vacancy in New South Wales goes to Concetta Fierravanti-Wells, whose short-term vacancy has been filled by splashy newcomer Jim Molan. The vacancies in Tasmania, Stephen Perry of the Liberals and Jacqui Lambie of Jacqui Lambie, were both long-term, and have both gone to lower order Liberals, Bushby and Duniam. The one short-term Liberal position goes to Richard Colbeck, returning to parliament after his (provisional) defeat in 2016.

In Western Australia, the Greens order shuffles after Scott Ludlam’s departure with Rachel Siewert taking his long term, and Jordon Steele-John filling Siewert’s short-term vacancy. The loss of Skye Kakoschke-Moore in South Australia has cost the Nick Xenophon Team a seat because the successor to her short term, Tim Storer, has become estranged from the party since the election. It’s a similar story for One Nation in Queensland, where Malcolm Roberts’ short-term vacancy has been filled by the party’s number three candidate, Fraser Anning, who has eventually resolved to sit as an independent after a dispute with Pauline Hanson.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,004 comments on “Monday miscellany”

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  2. Tom @ #2852 Thursday, March 22nd, 2018 – 2:43 pm

    So Hanson agrees to corporate tax cuts as long as the government finances 1000 apprentices (which is probably what they employ every year already) for the corporations as well. How generous…

    Tom.

    They had to make it look like they gave her something.

    And with them giving away so much to business there wasn’t much left for anyone/thing else! 🙁

  3. I have always preferenced Greens second after Labor even though they have annoyed me with their wedge politics and other tactics, especially since Bob Brown left.

    They were always, although increasingly less so, better than any other alternative available, and I held my nose and gave them my vote.

    But this, on top of their appalling campaign of lies, abandonment of policies, and hypocrisy in Batman, has been the last straw.

    I will sooner preference the Nationals than the Greens in any future election.

    At least I will know that the Nats don’t know any better, and are driven by greed, stupidity and opportunism, not by malice and willful disregard for the consequences of their actions.

  5. lizzie:

    Not lazy so much as perhaps figuring they will always hold he mantle of ‘party for environment’ and focusing their efforts instead on marriage equality, boats and winning HoR seats off Labor.

  7. lizzie says:
    Thursday, March 22, 2018 at 6:37 pm
    Fess

    I suggest they have been lazy and given no thought to the Marine Parks until now. Any self-respecting environmental org would have kept up with the Libs action (or no action).

    lizzie, it illustrates that every policy issue is to be subordinated to the overall strategy, which is to find ways to discredit Labor. Every single political act is calibrated with this intention. This is a matter of existential necessity for them. If a strong, reformist, long-lived Labor government is elected, the Frauds will be finished. They know it. Their entire plan is aimed at preventing this.

  8. Six years later, Gladstone’s mining boom is over, the work’s dried up, the property market is oversaturated with brand new homes, and rental prices have plummeted.

    Last I heard there are towns in the Pilbara facing similar issues.

  10. briefly

    I shall not hesitate to call RDN “The Black Wiggle” in future. He’s just a political opportunist in an area of policy that requires hard work and honesty.

  11. lizzie says:
    Thursday, March 22, 2018 at 6:56 pm
    briefly

    I shall not hesitate to call RDN “The Black Wiggle” in future. He’s just a political opportunist in an area of policy that requires hard work and honesty.

    Coming from you, that is harsh indeed, lizzie 🙂

  16. C@tmomma says:
    Thursday, March 22, 2018 at 7:02 pm
    Are Pegasus and Nicholas still off living their lives then?

    They will be dreaming up new ways of blaming Labor for the misfortunes of the Fakes; new excuses for aligning themselves with the Blue Tories.

  18. “I will sooner preference the Nationals than the Greens in any future election.”

    If we don’t want the future of the country to be dictated by Big Business (including Big Coal, Big Miners, Big Banks, Big private health, Macquarie Bank, Developers, Big Real Estate and the rest of the spivs) it is essential that the Coalition be booted out of office at the first opportunity and kept out, ideally for a decade or more. “Liberals” and Nationals last, always. Pseudo “Liberals” like One Nation, Australian Conservations and the Liberal Democratic Party second last.

  19. lizzie says:
    Thursday, March 22, 2018 at 7:03 pm
    briefly

    The Greens have trashed their brand.

    Totally, lizzie. It has all been their own work, too. No-one forced it upon them. I think “hubris” was the term used….quite apt this time.

  20. Sorry Steve, but it’s quite obvious to me that “vote Greens, get Libs” will be the reality from now on.

    I intend to cut out the middleman.

  22. Hanson goes “ooh aah” at the sight of the shiny baubles dangled in front of her and agrees to support company tax cuts.

  23. Pauline Hanson proves that she really is a moron. She either thinks she is a god to her followers and will suffer no consequences for backing the company tax cut or she is a fool for a slight of hand trick. Her voters might seem stupid to many others, but even they are not that stupid.

  24. Wheee!

    @Nettythe1st · 6h6 hours ago

    Presser backfires on Turnbull when businessman admits tax cuts would be funnelled into factory upgrades and employees would get the usual bonuses and CPI under their current EBA.

    No pay rise to see here!

    That’s what happens when you hog airtime @TurnbullMalcolm

  25. I live in an area of Perth where the public sector would benefit from at least $800 million in immediate investment, where the sector could easily absorb up to $2 billion over the next 5-8 years; where there would be a really very long term payoff to higher household incomes, higher employment, increased opportunities, a better quality of life and to community amenity.

    None of this is achievable if – as the Fakes hope – the LNP remain in power.

  26. Ringworms are a fungus.

    You know where you stand with a tapeworm.

    They tend to gather to give you an itch in one area only.

  27. “I intend to cut out the middleman.”

    No, that’s cutting off your nose to spite your face. I’ll even put One Nation ahead of the “Liberals” because in the unlikely event they’re elected they’ll prove too flakey and incompetent to do too much damage in their own right. At worst they’ll just vote with the Coalition most of the time, or maybe defect to a Coalition party. But on no account increase the probability of a Coalition victory.

    Vote Green third last before the L/NP and pseudo Libs.

  28. From what I read about the marine parks.

    If the Greens don’t vote with Labor then some protections will be in place.
    If the Greens vote with Labor then their will be no protections at all.

    I am reminded about the people complain about the Greens and the carbon tax.

    The complaint then was they held out for perfect and got nothing.

    Is it better to get something then nothing?

  31. Catprog

    Blocking the Coalition plan will mean that they have to go back to the drawing board. If their current plan is allowed to pass, the whole subject will be set for a decade. (I’m quoting experts here.)

  32. Any real conservationists left in the Greens should now leave the Greens and join Labor in readiness for the next federal election.
    The battlelines have been drawn. If you want social justice and environmental protection, support Labor.
    If you want to destroy both, vote for the Coalition.
    If you want to assist in destroying both, assist the Greens in their incessant attempts to damage Labor.

  33. Rex – I’m nowhere near as anti-Green as some posters here – I have always given the Greens either my first or second preference, mostly second – but this proposal is seriously where the rubber meets the road: either the Greens live up to their name and champion the permanent conservation of our natural environment, or they pack up and go home.

    Quote

    Yep. Get into being hippies again. Otherwise you are someone you aren’t.

  35. Boerwar @ #2882 Thursday, March 22nd, 2018 – 7:23 pm

    Any real conservationists left in the Greens should now leave the Greens and join Labor in readiness for the next federal election.
    The battlelines have been drawn. If you want social justice and environmental protection, support Labor.
    If you want to destroy both, vote for the Coalition.
    If you want to assist in destroying both, assist the Greens in their incessant attempts to damage Labor.

    Yep – and don’t fool yourself by referencing the greens in the Senate or anywhere else.

    Please. Your vote to do with what you choose, obviously.

    BUT – Please consider.

  36. lizzie

    So would I.

    If the real conservationists in the Greens stopped parking themselves uselessly in the Greens, they could join the Labor Party and have some real positive impact.

  37. Catprog :

    This view was backed by Richard Leck, WWF-Australia’s head of oceans, who said the disallowance motion being pursued by Labor should be supported.

    “These are 10-year plans to lock in a decade of management plans that are insufficient to protect the Coral Sea,” Leck said. “It doesn’t have scientific integrity and it doesn’t have the backing of the Australian people. WWF just can’t support something that is not fit for purpose.”

    He said changing the plans within a decade would be complicated, since they include compensation for extractive industries that are impacted. “We know that once these plans are in place the likelihood that they will be revisited in the next decade is low,” Leck said.

  38. Lizzie,

    I’d prefer Labor was in government.

    The less likely the Coalition is at being the government the more Labor can do for the environment.

  39. The less likely the Coalition is at being the government the more Labor can do for the environment.

    Yes as well as every bloody thing else!

  41. When even WOOF WOOF deserts the Greens, real environmentalists should be able to get the message: the Greens are more interested in political hackery than they are in the environment.

  43. lizzie @ #2886 Thursday, March 22nd, 2018 – 3:25 pm

    Boerwar

    I would still prefer Labor was more gungho on the environment in general.

    Agree, a large part of the renewable debate should have been on new industries being established and the associated jobs.

    But unfortunately, it just gave the Libs another excuse to get all hysterical, which the media lapped up!

    They have no will to debate the issues.

  45. I am reminded about the people complain about the Greens and the carbon tax.

    The complaint then was they held out for perfect and got nothing.

    Well they can hold out for perfect and that’s their right. But if they do that with the govt’s marine park proposal it will definitely lock in nothing for 10 years. I also read that they’ve included proposals for significant compensation deals for mining and related industries and that something like 37 out of 40+ parks would be open for business to destructive commercial fishing.

    Alternatively the Greens could join Labor and move to disallow the legislation, forcing the govt back to the drawing board where they’d get to argue for their patch of perfect.

    I get the Greens feel the need to virtue signal on issues, but just for once they need to shut their pie holes and pony themselves up to actually doing something constructive on an environmental issue!

  46. Regarding ‘other’ matter needing to be fixed –

    Mr McAdam (chief executive of Verizon) said that 1 Gbps speeds would be the norm with 5G and that it had already successfully trialled 25 Gbps.

    “Large files of data that will need that kind of throughput. The other major thing about 5G is we can attach 1000-times more devices to every cell site than we can today,” he said.

    “We’re [also] already the largest fibre provider in the US and a year ago we built 12 million miles of fibre a year for the next three years, so we literally have enough fibre to go to Mars.

    I’ve told Elon Musk that when he lands there we will have fibre services.”

    Read more: http://www.afr.com/technology/smartphones-to-be-charged-once-a-month-with-5g-verizon-ceo-lowell-mcadam-20180321-h0xsb0#

  47. 7.30 reporting through a news organisation that actually does investigate reporting, on Cambridge Analytica.

    Would they feel just a little bit embarrassed that they are so pathetic in comparison?

  48. BIDG

    Assuming that Labor will form the next government, it will very likely face a hostile Senate which will spend three years blocking all social and environmental advances.

    What Labor will need to do is set in train some Royal Commission damage to the Coalition, set up a double dissolution on an overwhelmingly popular issue then go to a double dissolution to wipe out the assorted arse-wipes who have coat-tailed Lambie, Hanson, Xenophon and Palmer into the Senate.

    IMO, unlike Rudd, Shorten will have the balls to clean out the snakepit by way of a DD.

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