Monday miscellany

Passing observations on the Batman by-election, the Cottesloe by-election (look it up), and the state of the Senate after Section 44.

I don’t believe we’ll be getting any sort of a federal opinion poll this week, with Newspoll presumably holding off through South Australian election week to return before the resumption of parliament next week, and Essential Research having an off-week in their fortnightly schedule. You can find a post updating progress in late counting in South Australia here; other than that, for the sake of a new general post, I relate the following:

• Ben Raue at The Tally Room has a very illuminating map showing the pattern of swings within Batman, showing a largely status quo result north of the Bell Street curtain, but a quite substantial swing to Labor in the presumed Greens stronghold area in the south. I’ll have more on the Batman by-election in today’s Crikey, if you’re a subscriber.

• Lost in the excitement, the weekend’s other by-election has entirely escaped mention on this site. It was held in the blue-ribbon Western Australian state seat of Cottesloe, to replace Colin Barnett. This produced the predicted walkover for Liberal candidate David Honey, an 59-year-old Alcoa executive and former state party president. Honey finished the night on 59.8% of the primary vote, and 70.2% on two-party preferred over the Greens. At the time of Barnett’s resignation in January, it was generally assumed the party could not let pass an opportunity to add a woman to a parliamentary ranks, but Honey nonetheless won a preselection vote by twenty to eight ahead of BHP Billiton lawyer Emma Roberts. The Liberals elected only two women out of thirteen to the lower house in 2017, along with one out of eight to the upper. At the 2013 election, the party’s lower house contingent included only four women out of thirty-one in the lower house, along with five out of seventen in the upper house, two of whom suffered preselection defeats going into last year’s election.

• A reallocation of Senators’ three-year and six-year terms has been conducted after the Section 44 disqualifications, affecting every state except Victoria. This involved allocating six-year terms to the first six elected candidates in the recounts conducted to fill the vacancies, and three-year terms going to those elected to positions seven through twelve, who will be facing re-election (almost certainly) at the next federal election.

There are two pieces of good news for the Liberals, who gain a long-term seat in New South Wales at the expense of the Nationals, and in Tasmania go from two long-term and two short-term seats to three and one. Fiona Nash’s long-term vacancy in New South Wales goes to Concetta Fierravanti-Wells, whose short-term vacancy has been filled by splashy newcomer Jim Molan. The vacancies in Tasmania, Stephen Perry of the Liberals and Jacqui Lambie of Jacqui Lambie, were both long-term, and have both gone to lower order Liberals, Bushby and Duniam. The one short-term Liberal position goes to Richard Colbeck, returning to parliament after his (provisional) defeat in 2016.

In Western Australia, the Greens order shuffles after Scott Ludlam’s departure with Rachel Siewert taking his long term, and Jordon Steele-John filling Siewert’s short-term vacancy. The loss of Skye Kakoschke-Moore in South Australia has cost the Nick Xenophon Team a seat because the successor to her short term, Tim Storer, has become estranged from the party since the election. It’s a similar story for One Nation in Queensland, where Malcolm Roberts’ short-term vacancy has been filled by the party’s number three candidate, Fraser Anning, who has eventually resolved to sit as an independent after a dispute with Pauline Hanson.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,004 thoughts on “Monday miscellany”

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  1. Andrew Leigh
    ‏
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    @ALeighMP
    2h2 hours ago
    More
    He promised “jobs & growth”. Just not growth for those with jobs.

  2. Senator Murray Watt
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    Verified account

    @MurrayWatt
    8h8 hours ago
    Half the companies that signed this letter didn’t pay ANY company tax in 2015-16. How will a company tax cut help them pay higher wages?

  6. https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/03/19/monday-miscellany-2/comment-page-56/#comment-2766615

    Most of the countries above Australia in the lists of population are gaining population through high birth rates, leading to a relatively high proportion of the population being children requiring care and education, with far fewer resources to deal with their population increases. Australia has immigration making up a much higher proportion of population growth, leading to a higher proportion of working age people contributing resources.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population_growth_rate#List_of_countries

    I also cannot see where you are getting 40th on the list from. Alphabetically we are 10th and on all the other rankings we are about 75th to about 115th.

  9. C@t:

    That BCA letter is from some of the largest corporations in the country. Of course they’d want company tax cuts!

  12. poroti @ #2809 Thursday, March 22nd, 2018 – 5:41 pm

    Jobs and growth—-> jobs with no growth and growth of no jobs.
    .
    Unemployment edges up despite more jobs created
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-03-22/employment-and-unemployment-february-2018/9575148
    .
    The RBA has warned Australians that wage growth is stagnant
    http://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/australian-economy/rba-warns-australian-wages-will-be-stagnant-until-2020/news-story/9de7e94d15d6baafc4a902f6e1f91936

    It’s Bill’s Lodge to lose.

  13. Rex – I’m nowhere near as anti-Green as some posters here – I have always given the Greens either my first or second preference, mostly second – but this proposal is seriously where the rubber meets the road: either the Greens live up to their name and champion the permanent conservation of our natural environment, or they pack up and go home.

  16. JimmyD says:
    Thursday, March 22, 2018 at 5:21 pm

    The Fakes have campaigned themselves into a dead-end. Their business plan calls for anti-Labor messaging on the basis they can drive disaffection among Labor-leaning voters and then attract them away from Labor. This worked for a very long time and allowed their base to grow. However, it’s now clear this plan has become counter-productive. It’s begun to repel Labor-positive voters.

    In spite of anti Labor campaigning from both ends of the Tory spectrum, Labor’s potential and actual PV have been rising. This must be driving the Fakes crazy, as it means their goal – the prevention of a Labor victory in the next election – cannot be realised.

    The Fakes really face a dilemma. Their business model is working against them. They are no longer an environmental party worthy of the name. Their base is ageing and fatigued, and often unmotivated, meaning they can barely field candidates in general elections, let alone run strong campaigns. Their leadership is split. Their voter support is stagnant at best and they will likely lose Senators at the next election.

    What is the point of the Fakes? What are their distinctive brand values, promises and themes? They cannot answer that to their own satisfaction, let alone to the satisfaction of the electorate at large. To be a Fake means nothing at all.

  17. C@t
    “Half the companies that signed this letter didn’t pay ANY company tax in 2015-16. How will a company tax cut help them pay higher wages?”
    The flip-side is to ask why do half these companies care if there is a tax cut as it won’t affect them directly.
    I don’t know what the answer is but I’m sure there is one. I assume they will get some indirect benefit.

  20. No I have monitored games via the App without subscribing. I am sure I saw something from CA that you would not need to subscribe to access written commentary.
    That said it can be slow and a radio steam to your computer would be the better bet.

  21. Just spoke to a parent of a student going to an elite Melbourne private school. There is growing resentment of the dismissal of a very popular teacher. Apparently, the many of the staff, the parents, current and past students want the fellow re-instated.

    They are getting nowhere with their demands. What struck me was the board and principal are totally unaccountable to anyone except the board and principal. The board selects new directors and then appoints a principal.

    The lying, dirt files, vindictiveness and underhanded tactics used in the fight reminds me of how the Liberal party operate.

  22. This is the Hanson deal, a ‘pilot program’.

    Pauline Hanson has struck a deal with the Turnbull Government to support its company tax cuts in exchange for an apprenticeship pilot program targeting young Australians.

    Under a deal struck between the One Nation leader and the Government’s Senate leader Mathias Cormann today, the Government will fund a pilot program for 1,000 taxpayer-funded apprentices in private business.

    Key points:
    •One Nation’s three senators will support the cuts in exchange for 1,000 taxpayer-funded apprentices
    •It is understood the apprentices would be 75 per cent taxpayer-funded in the first year, scaling down over four years
    •The Government still needs the support of crossbenchers Derryn Hinch and Tim Storer

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-03-22/pauline-hanson-strikes-deal-on-company-tax-cuts/9576930

  24. Diogenes @ #2815 Thursday, March 22nd, 2018 – 5:49 pm

    C@t
    “Half the companies that signed this letter didn’t pay ANY company tax in 2015-16. How will a company tax cut help them pay higher wages?”
    The flip-side is to ask why do half these companies care if there is a tax cut as it won’t affect them directly.
    I don’t know what the answer is but I’m sure there is one. I assume they will get some indirect benefit.

    Because, for those companies that do pay Company Tax, if they get their tax cut it leads to dismantling of the Welfare State, as Public Services need to be cut too. Then the Private Companies, like BUPA in Health, cannibalise what were formerly Public Services paid for with tax.

  25. lizzie says:
    Thursday, March 22, 2018 at 6:01 pm
    This is the Hanson deal, a ‘pilot program’.

    …talk about tokenistic politics…fmd…

  26. PeeBee @ #2819 Thursday, March 22nd, 2018 – 5:58 pm

    Just spoke to a parent of a student going to an elite Melbourne private school. There is growing resentment of the dismissal of a very popular teacher. Apparently, the many of the staff, the parents, current and past students want the fellow re-instated.

    They are getting nowhere with their demands. What struck me was the board and principal are totally unaccountable to anyone except the board and principal. The board selects new directors and then appoints a principal.

    The lying, dirt files, vindictiveness and underhanded tactics used in the fight reminds me of how the Liberal party operate.

    Where do you think they come from?

  29. lizzie – irrespective of the Labor/Green argy-bargy, the Coalition’s proposal for the Coral Sea Marine Park is objectively awful.

  30. Then the Private Companies, like BUPA in Health, cannibalise what were formerly Public Services paid for with tax.

    That reminds me to switch out my private health insurance with BUPA to some other company.

  34. JimmyD

    Objectively awful. Of course it is, and I can’t think why the Greens are putting up a smokescreen about ‘consulting experts’. The experts have already spoken and the reasons not to allow such things as trawling or longline fishing have been known for decades.

  35. I don’t suppose anybody will care but I hope there is somebody who will check in four years to see how many of the apprentices Hanson sold out for actually complete the program.

    Cormann and company must lock the doors and laugh themselves silly for hours after dealing with her.

  37. ‘Diogenes says:
    Thursday, March 22, 2018 at 5:49 pm

    C@t
    “Half the companies that signed this letter didn’t pay ANY company tax in 2015-16. How will a company tax cut help them pay higher wages?”
    The flip-side is to ask why do half these companies care if there is a tax cut as it won’t affect them directly.
    I don’t know what the answer is but I’m sure there is one. I assume they will get some indirect benefit.’

    Shares (and performance based bonuses for CEOs) will go up because future earnings will be taxable at a lesser rate. The reason no taxes are payable now may be because they are being offset against previous losses. (This is almost certaintly the case with QANTAS, for example.

    I’ll bet most of those companies have also (1) ensured that wages of their employees are stagnant (2) reduced their workforces (3) reduced workers’ conditions as their profits have grown (4) ensured that Board member and CEO pay growth has far outstripped worker growth and inflation growth. (5) offshored Australian jobs by the thousands.

    The rank hypocrisy of this lot is one of the Wonders of the Modern World.

  38. ?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754

    The map on the left is the Coral Sea Marine Park protection areas as proposed by an independent review advised by expert science (keeping in mind that this is what they come up with while under pressure from the government to reduce “green tape”) and the map on the right is what the Coalition has proposed.

    EDIT – areas in green are “no take” areas where no fishing can occur. Yellow allows for midwater trawling, while the blue allows for midwater and bottom trawling.

    http://saveourmarinelife.org.au/1200-scientists-urge-rethink-australias-marine-park-plans/

    Thanks to poroti

  42. lizzie:

    The Greens own website and policy statement on marine protection acknowledges the coalition has diminished protection of coastal environments on the then Labor govt’s plans. It makes the game playing and tricky politics today even more galling.

  43. Dee Madigan‏Verified account @deemadigan · 18m18 minutes ago

    ‘A fraud, incompetent’ Doug Cameron is really holding back about his thoughts on Pauline… #Senate

  44. Fess

    I suggest they have been lazy and given no thought to the Marine Parks until now. Any self-respecting environmental org would have kept up with the Libs action (or no action).

  46. The Buisness Councils commitent to the Senate is such a pile of shite that it makes me that angry to reply to obviously such a self serving bunch of Ars* H#l^s

    Here is the corporate tax transperancy that is released up to a year late.

    https://data.gov.au/dataset/corporate-transparency

    If you divide gross income by tax paid the winner is Fortescue at 5%. Everyone else is about 1%. MYOB, JBS Aust and Energy Australia paid no tax at all.

    Can’t see any trickle down from these corporate giants.

  48. The environment party has such a week grip on the issue they don’t know that bottom trawling is not good for the marine environment? Dr Richard Di Natale wasn’t doing enough damage to his foot with the machine gun labelled adani; so he pulls out the bazooka labelled coral sea.

  49. lizzie
    The experts have already spoken and the reasons not to allow such things as trawling or longline fishing have been known for decades.

    Yes exactly. This fact makes Whish-Wilson’s dishonest claim about the Greens’ “need to consult the experts” all the more galling.

  50. So Hanson agrees to corporate tax cuts as long as the government finances 1000 apprentices (which is probably what they employ every year already) for the corporations as well. How generous…

    Tom.

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