Monday miscellany

Passing observations on the Batman by-election, the Cottesloe by-election (look it up), and the state of the Senate after Section 44.

I don’t believe we’ll be getting any sort of a federal opinion poll this week, with Newspoll presumably holding off through South Australian election week to return before the resumption of parliament next week, and Essential Research having an off-week in their fortnightly schedule. You can find a post updating progress in late counting in South Australia here; other than that, for the sake of a new general post, I relate the following:

Ben Raue at The Tally Room has a very illuminating map showing the pattern of swings within Batman, showing a largely status quo result north of the Bell Street curtain, but a quite substantial swing to Labor in the presumed Greens stronghold area in the south. I’ll have more on the Batman by-election in today’s Crikey, if you’re a subscriber.

• Lost in the excitement, the weekend’s other by-election has entirely escaped mention on this site. It was held in the blue-ribbon Western Australian state seat of Cottesloe, to replace Colin Barnett. This produced the predicted walkover for Liberal candidate David Honey, an 59-year-old Alcoa executive and former state party president. Honey finished the night on 59.8% of the primary vote, and 70.2% on two-party preferred over the Greens. At the time of Barnett’s resignation in January, it was generally assumed the party could not let pass an opportunity to add a woman to a parliamentary ranks, but Honey nonetheless won a preselection vote by twenty to eight ahead of BHP Billiton lawyer Emma Roberts. The Liberals elected only two women out of thirteen to the lower house in 2017, along with one out of eight to the upper. At the 2013 election, the party’s lower house contingent included only four women out of thirty-one in the lower house, along with five out of seventen in the upper house, two of whom suffered preselection defeats going into last year’s election.

• A reallocation of Senators’ three-year and six-year terms has been conducted after the Section 44 disqualifications, affecting every state except Victoria. This involved allocating six-year terms to the first six elected candidates in the recounts conducted to fill the vacancies, and three-year terms going to those elected to positions seven through twelve, who will be facing re-election (almost certainly) at the next federal election.

There are two pieces of good news for the Liberals, who gain a long-term seat in New South Wales at the expense of the Nationals, and in Tasmania go from two long-term and two short-term seats to three and one. Fiona Nash’s long-term vacancy in New South Wales goes to Concetta Fierravanti-Wells, whose short-term vacancy has been filled by splashy newcomer Jim Molan. The vacancies in Tasmania, Stephen Perry of the Liberals and Jacqui Lambie of Jacqui Lambie, were both long-term, and have both gone to lower order Liberals, Bushby and Duniam. The one short-term Liberal position goes to Richard Colbeck, returning to parliament after his (provisional) defeat in 2016.

In Western Australia, the Greens order shuffles after Scott Ludlam’s departure with Rachel Siewert taking his long term, and Jordon Steele-John filling Siewert’s short-term vacancy. The loss of Skye Kakoschke-Moore in South Australia has cost the Nick Xenophon Team a seat because the successor to her short term, Tim Storer, has become estranged from the party since the election. It’s a similar story for One Nation in Queensland, where Malcolm Roberts’ short-term vacancy has been filled by the party’s number three candidate, Fraser Anning, who has eventually resolved to sit as an independent after a dispute with Pauline Hanson.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,004 comments on “Monday miscellany”

Comments Page 56 of 61
1 55 56 57 61
  1. ‘Voice Endeavour says:
    Thursday, March 22, 2018 at 3:58 pm

    @ Boerwar – “I want appropriately-sized and properly protected marine parks.”

    Well, tough shit.’

    Labor and the Greens have one lever – disallow (small and properly protected) or do not disallow (large and not properly protected).”

    Whoopsie! The Fake Greens have nothing.

    Labor formed the Coral Sea Marine Park. When Labor returns to Government in about 12 months time Labor will protect the Coral Sea Marine Park.

    In the interim the Fake Greens will do their BAU best to look after the Coalition, damage Labor, and to gut the Coral Sea Marine Park.

    The sooner real conservationists who do care about the marine environment leave the Fake Greens, join the real conservationists already in Labor and so help to defeat the Coalition.

    GET OFF THE FENCE.

  2. The experts were consulted when the Coral Sea Marine Park was formed. Not a single biodiversity expert has ever said that opening up 450,000,000 ha to long lining and trawling is good for biodiveristy.

    Not one.

    But, you know, the Fake Greens poseurs, the Black Wiggle, have to make a song and dance about it.

    GET OFF THE FENCE. STOP GIVING SUCCOUR TO FRYTHEPLANET. FOR ONCE IN YOUR MISERABLE LIVES DO THE RIGHT THING.

  3. “It’s all a bit ad hoc to have not consulted them before saying you won’t vote with Labor.”

    “Greens signal they may not back Labor in blocking Coalition’s marine park plans”

    won’t =/= may not

  4. Trumble said, expansively, today:

    “Company Tax Cuts WILL make wages rise!”

    What he never elucidates is, by how much, 2 cents per hour? and what Workers may have to give up in return for a miserable pittance of a ‘wage rise’.

  5. Voice Endeavour @ #2756 Thursday, March 22nd, 2018 – 4:19 pm

    “It’s all a bit ad hoc to have not consulted them before saying you won’t vote with Labor.”

    “Greens signal they may not back Labor in blocking Coalition’s marine park plans”

    won’t =/= may not

    Which doesn’t detract in any way from my point. Why haven’t The Greens consulted with the experts already? BEFORE saying they ‘may not’ side with Labor?

  6. Voters will hear just one thing…less than a week after losing in Batman where they ran fraudulent claims about Labor and the Adani mine, the Fakes are considering voting with the Real Adani Party. Make no mistake. The LNP know they are co-branded with Adani and they are trying to duck the association. Now the Fakes have publicly said the Adani Party are not so bad…that they may be better than Labor on the Marine Environment. This is a completely implausible proposition. Nonetheless, the Fakes have lent their credit (such as it is) on the environment to the Blue Tories. Incredible act of political self-harm by the Fakes. They have surpassed themselves. They continue to campaign against themselves. Excellent.

  7. ratsak @ #2682 Thursday, March 22nd, 2018 – 3:15 pm

    I wonder if Hinch is just toying with Cormann with a series of demands for his vote each more idiotic than the last because he’s no chance of supporting Company Tax cuts and just wants to see the Libs dance.

    Or is he really stupid enough to believe you can just set a higher tax rate for banks?

    Or is he just after headlines…

    Tom.

  8. Tom @ #2765 Thursday, March 22nd, 2018 – 4:24 pm

    ratsak @ #2682 Thursday, March 22nd, 2018 – 3:15 pm

    I wonder if Hinch is just toying with Cormann with a series of demands for his vote each more idiotic than the last because he’s no chance of supporting Company Tax cuts and just wants to see the Libs dance.

    Or is he really stupid enough to believe you can just set a higher tax rate for banks?

    Or is he just after headlines…

    Tom.

    He probably wants to maximise his position by being the last domino to fall.

  9. C@tmomma says:
    Thursday, March 22, 2018 at 4:19 pm
    Barney in Go Dau @ #2754 Thursday, March 22nd, 2018 – 4:18 pm

    Hansen supporting company tax cuts!
    Pauline Hanson is a bear of little brain. Easily Conned.

    Hanson cannot resist a bit of attention from the LNP. She’s vain, weak and empty….and she is also a Fake.

  10. c@tmomma – to clarify exactly what your point is.

    The specific details of the Coalition’s plan were published about 2 days ago.
    The greens do not have a time machine.
    Engaging experts to determine the net impacts of the proposed changes takes a couple of weeks.

    So, in between about 2 days ago when the details were published, and 12 days time when the experts provide their advice, the Greens’ options for how to respond to media queries are:

    A) Tell the truth – “We haven’t decided, we’ll get back to you.”
    B) Lie for no reason -” We are in favor of disallowance”.
    C) Throw a smoke bomb and run away from the media.

    Are you advocating the Greens lie to the media, or run from them?

  11. VE

    @ Guytaur – perhaps that was the Greens making a compromise in order to get something ok in place, even though it wasn’t perfect.

    I am shocked that anyone would even suggest that the Greens would take such an approach!

  12. Voice Endeavour says:
    Thursday, March 22, 2018 at 4:33 pm

    To clarify….

    The Fakes are in Parliament under false pretences.

  13. To clarify even further….

    For the next 2 weeks people will be asking themselves: “Will the Fakes vote with the Real Adani Party?”

  14. ratsak @ #2754 Thursday, March 22nd, 2018 – 1:13 pm

    Dig dig dig.

    This crap has a half life of hours, not days.

    Even Trumble would struggle to fuck up as badly.

    I don’t know Ratsak, Trumble is improving.

    He’s trying to push through tax cuts for multinationals at the same time as floating a combination of increasing the GST to 15% and/or an increase to the Medicare levy.

  15. Liberal Democrat David Leyonhjelm has warned the Government that he would withdraw support for its company tax cuts if it gave in to Derryn Hinch’s demands that the big four banks be excluded from the legislation. The key Senate crossbencher, who would likely be backed by Cory Bernardi told The Australian, that he would not back a bill to expand the tax cuts to all Australian companies if the banks were barred from the deal.
    With the bill being debated in the senate today, Mr Hinch suggested that for his vote to be secured, banks would be forced to pay a higher rate of tax. “I would never vote for legislation that did that,” Mr Leyonhjelm said.

    Senator Leyonhjelm has been a vocal support of the tax cuts. With the Government making headway in its negotiations with the Senate crossbench, including One Nation, withdrawal of his support would likely scuttle the deal.

    “I’m afraid Derryn must have dropped out of economics 101 with a fail,” Senator Leyonhjelm said. “Honestly, he’s got no idea. Who does he think owns the banks? It’s Australians. It’s Australian shareholders. The banks are not some kind of entity unto themselves. They’re just a collective of people owned by their shareholders, the vast majority of those shareholders being Australians, so a company tax cut that doesn’t include the banks would mean all of those shareholders have to pay more tax via their ownership of the banks than other Australians who own other companies. It’s absurd, absolutely absurd.”

  16. The specific details of the Coalition’s plan were published about 2 days ago.
    The greens do not have a time machine.
    Engaging experts to determine the net impacts of the proposed changes takes a couple of weeks…
    Are you advocating the Greens lie to the media, or run from them?

    VE, maybe The Greens should have spoken to the media over the last 2 days? They have already spoken to the experts. They certainly didn’t need another 10 days to make up THEIR minds. 🙂

  17. What a strange choice of words.

    But totally in keeping with the rightwing reactionary drama queen hysteria. I wonder if he tossed his head and did a little foot stamp when he said it.

    Chris Kenny was having a similar outburst earlier in reaction to McKim’s comment about Dutton , whining about Sky News giving time to such people, only to look a right fool when Sam Maiden posted a screen shot of the Australian’s home page with McKim’s remarks posted all over it in large font.

  18. The Coalition’s plan for the Coral Sea Marine Park:

    – greatly expands the “special purpose area”, which allows for bottom trawling as well as midwater trawling, including by super-trawlers
    – abuts a number of national park zones (where no commercial fishing is allowed) against the special purpose area, thus diminishing the value of those national park zones
    – allows midwater trawling in almost the entire park area

    Both kinds of trawling are harmful to fish stocks, which in turn harms species higher in the food chain. Bottom trawling is particularly destructive, as it disrupts the sea floor, preventing coral and plant growth.

    If the Coalition’s plan is put in place, the Coral Sea Marine Park would be a conservancy in name only.

  19. So the Greens are consulting the experts? I read that as they are planning the best way to maximise their votes by consulting peer groups, the environment be damned.

    Tom.

  20. JimmyD says:
    Thursday, March 22, 2018 at 5:04 pm
    The Coalition’s plan for the Coral Sea Marine Park

    ….should be called the Fake/LNP Joint Trick…

  21. Just in case there is anyone who hasn’t seen this yet …

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-03-22/australia-population-increases-by-one-person-every-86-seconds/9575262

    This puts Australia around number 40 in the list of countries ordered by rate of population growth. But anyone who thinks this is a good thing should have a good hard look at the countries that are ahead of us in that list:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population_growth_rate#List_of_countries

    Australia desperately needs a rational population policy 🙁

  22. “If the Coalition’s plan is put in place, the Coral Sea Marine Park would be a conservancy in name only.”

    Which is obvious as a baboon’s bottom to everyone but the opportunistic Blue Greens.

  23. Any cricket tragics on here, know how i can listen to the cricket tonight. Assume SEN will do the footy now instead. I do not have pay tv.

  24. The CCG analysis says 35m hectares of ocean previously classified as “no take” by the outgoing 2013 Labor government had been downgraded under the new plans.

    The analysis says: “In the scale of the area impacted, this is similar to revoking every second Australian national park. There has never been a removal of protection for Australian wildlife on this scale since Australia’s first national park was established in 1879.”

    Releasing the plans, Frydenberg said that compared with Labor’s 2013 plans, 16% more of the total park area would be open to recreational fishing and 17% more for commercial fishing. Areas open to mining had been cut by 4%.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/mar/22/leader-to-laggard-the-backlash-to-australias-marine-park-cutbacks

    briefly – the status quo, even though that allows commercial fishing, is better than this management plan. These proposals permanently degrade the conservation value of the marine parks, while creating the illusion that our oceans are protected.

    What are the Greens waiting for? Be Greens!

  25. The Coalition’s plan for the Coral Sea Marine Park:

    The Greens own policy statement on marine parks on their website states that marine protection has been greatly diminished under an Abbott-Turnbull govt.

    “Consulting the experts” is just biding time. Hopefully they’ll come to their senses and see that opposing the coalition is the only way to protect our environment.

  26. JimmyD @ #2779 Thursday, March 22nd, 2018 – 5:04 pm

    The Coalition’s plan for the Coral Sea Marine Park:

    – greatly expands the “special purpose area”, which allows for bottom trawling as well as midwater trawling
    – abuts a number of national park zones (where no commercial fishing is allowed) against the special purpose area, thus diminishing the value of those national park zones
    – allows midwater trawling in almost the entire park area

    Both kinds of trawling are harmful to fish stocks, which in turn harms species higher in the food chain. Bottom trawling is particularly destructive, as it disrupts the sea floor, preventing coral and plant growth.

    If the Coalition’s plan is put in place, the Coral Sea Marine Park would be a conservancy in name only.

    And The Greens need 10 more days to find this out!?!

  27. I propose that ‘The Greens’ change their name to “the Cyans”, although they might need to get expert advice on the environmental effects.
    I live in an area where there are lots of trees for them to hug. Unfortunately they are not welcome here, since blue-green algae are a scourge in our beautiful lakes.

  28. If the Greens vote for this proposal, they are giving license to environmental vandalism. Any marine park that allows bottom trawling to occur within its area is not a real marine park!

  29. Confessions – i asked the same question on facebook and got this. (for VIC)

    1377AM Classic Rock Radio – 7pm to 11pm. (Have checked – it is a sister station to SEN)
    1116AM SEN – from 11pm onwards

Comments Page 56 of 61
1 55 56 57 61

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *