I don’t believe we’ll be getting any sort of a federal opinion poll this week, with Newspoll presumably holding off through South Australian election week to return before the resumption of parliament next week, and Essential Research having an off-week in their fortnightly schedule. You can find a post updating progress in late counting in South Australia here; other than that, for the sake of a new general post, I relate the following:
• Ben Raue at The Tally Room has a very illuminating map showing the pattern of swings within Batman, showing a largely status quo result north of the Bell Street curtain, but a quite substantial swing to Labor in the presumed Greens stronghold area in the south. I’ll have more on the Batman by-election in today’s Crikey, if you’re a subscriber.
• Lost in the excitement, the weekend’s other by-election has entirely escaped mention on this site. It was held in the blue-ribbon Western Australian state seat of Cottesloe, to replace Colin Barnett. This produced the predicted walkover for Liberal candidate David Honey, an 59-year-old Alcoa executive and former state party president. Honey finished the night on 59.8% of the primary vote, and 70.2% on two-party preferred over the Greens. At the time of Barnett’s resignation in January, it was generally assumed the party could not let pass an opportunity to add a woman to a parliamentary ranks, but Honey nonetheless won a preselection vote by twenty to eight ahead of BHP Billiton lawyer Emma Roberts. The Liberals elected only two women out of thirteen to the lower house in 2017, along with one out of eight to the upper. At the 2013 election, the party’s lower house contingent included only four women out of thirty-one in the lower house, along with five out of seventen in the upper house, two of whom suffered preselection defeats going into last year’s election.
• A reallocation of Senators’ three-year and six-year terms has been conducted after the Section 44 disqualifications, affecting every state except Victoria. This involved allocating six-year terms to the first six elected candidates in the recounts conducted to fill the vacancies, and three-year terms going to those elected to positions seven through twelve, who will be facing re-election (almost certainly) at the next federal election.
There are two pieces of good news for the Liberals, who gain a long-term seat in New South Wales at the expense of the Nationals, and in Tasmania go from two long-term and two short-term seats to three and one. Fiona Nash’s long-term vacancy in New South Wales goes to Concetta Fierravanti-Wells, whose short-term vacancy has been filled by splashy newcomer Jim Molan. The vacancies in Tasmania, Stephen Perry of the Liberals and Jacqui Lambie of Jacqui Lambie, were both long-term, and have both gone to lower order Liberals, Bushby and Duniam. The one short-term Liberal position goes to Richard Colbeck, returning to parliament after his (provisional) defeat in 2016.
In Western Australia, the Greens order shuffles after Scott Ludlam’s departure with Rachel Siewert taking his long term, and Jordon Steele-John filling Siewert’s short-term vacancy. The loss of Skye Kakoschke-Moore in South Australia has cost the Nick Xenophon Team a seat because the successor to her short term, Tim Storer, has become estranged from the party since the election. It’s a similar story for One Nation in Queensland, where Malcolm Roberts’ short-term vacancy has been filled by the party’s number three candidate, Fraser Anning, who has eventually resolved to sit as an independent after a dispute with Pauline Hanson.
Victoria says: Monday, March 19, 2018 at 9:59 am
PhoenixRed
Not sure of exact process Trump has in order to fire Mueller
No doubt Mueller and co are prepared for any eventuality
*********************************************
Republican Senator Lindsey Graham said Mr Mueller should be allowed to proceed without interference, and that many Republicans shared his view.
He also warned Mr Trump against any attempt to dismiss Mr Mueller.
“If he tried to do that, that would be the beginning of the end of his presidency, because we’re a rule of law nation,” Mr Graham said.
Republican Senator Jeff Flake, a frequent Trump critic, said it appeared the president’s latest comments seemed to be preparing the ground for the firing of Mr Mueller.
“I don’t know what the designs are on Mueller, but it seems to be building toward that, and I just hope it doesn’t go there, because it can’t. We can’t in Congress accept that,” he told CNN.
“I’m just puzzled by why the White House is going so hard at this, other than that they’re very afraid of what might come out.”
Lots of people have interesting conclusions from the Batman by election. They’re wrong, but it’s interesting how they can get there.
Demographic change continued, with gentrification starting to show up in voting habits north of the ‘hipster proof fence’.
Labor gained votes in the south by replacing a shit candidate that no left aligned person could support with a good candidate that could get support from the left.
That’s a great outcome for Labor (and for the people of Batman, who are rid of Feeny), but they still only prolong the inevitable. Demographic change will continue to happen, Labor can’t keep finding better candidates each election.
Molan?
When you do a belly flop dive into the pool you make a look at moi big splash.
Since posting links to videos spread by the racist love children of Hitler in order to ignite sectarian and racist hatred, the self-gratulatory Molan seems to have subsided a bit.
Boerwar
The starting point for anything is always that it is Labor’s fault.
GG
Di Natale is in denial mode. He has to fight off leadership speculation from building.
If the Greens want to survive they have to replace Di Natale as leader. Its that simple. He keeps losing elections and polling tells us that the Green vote is falling generally.
As leader its his responsibility to face this reality and step down.
I don’t expect he will. I think he is going to have to be blasted out and that this is a crucial test for the Greens and their future.
You will know the realisation has set in when Bob Brown says something bad about Di Natale.
Bolt yesterday – Shorten triumphs and Turnbull crashes. Any other RWNJ commentators likely to follow Bolt?
VE
Your assumptions are, IMO, too deterministic.
Demography is destiny, up to a point.
But it is far more likely that the medium-term destiny of Batman will be for it to change to Right than to the Far Left.
Why?
When the Far Left talks, stuff-all happens.
When money talks, stuff happens.
‘citizen says:
Monday, March 19, 2018 at 10:13 am
Bolt yesterday – Shorten triumphs and Turnbull crashes. Any other RWNJ commentators likely to follow Bolt?’
Reverse it and you get Rex. Yada. Yada. Yada.
The woman exiting the Greens “loudly” sounds like a purist, who wants everything in the party to be her way or not at all.
Perhaps the problem the Greens have is too many members have that sort of attitude and are intolerant to or incapable of working with others to find a resolution or compromise.
Voice Endeavour @ #102 Monday, March 19th, 2018 – 10:09 am
What makes your analysis more ‘right’ than anyone else’s?
It looks like the tougher building codes have pretty well saved Darwin during Marcus.
Well done all those people!
By way of very sharp contrast, it is a pity that ember-proofing buildings (pretty cheap) is not mandatory for all new buildings. Many, if not most, of the buildings burnt in Tathra would have been saved.
Now this puts Mr Shorten’s policy in terms voters can understand
@BevanShields @RichardTuffin @erinrileyau @Boeufblogginon @JoshButler They are getting money for nothing ffs. They HAVEN’T paid the tax. Do you understand how this works? If they’ve paid the tax they’ll still qualify under Keatings original DI policy which Labor are reverting to.
As long as the Gs persist in running as an anti-Labor voice they will be seen by voters – quite correctly – as a front outfit for the Tories. The Gs are trashing their own brand and their stagnation is the inevitable consequence.
I hope the Gs continue to campaign against Labor for two reasons:
– it makes it easier for Lib-leaning voters to switch to Labor
– it drives Labor-positive voters away from the Gs
At the next election G Senate seats will be up for grabs. They will struggle to hold. The beneficiary of G-losses should be Labor. This will be very welcome.
Victoria @ #93 Monday, March 19th, 2018 – 8:59 am
Simples:
1. Go to Twitter.
2. Tweet.
phoenixRED says:
Monday, March 19, 2018 at 6:51 am
‘You can smell the fear’: Ex-DOJ official warns Trump’s Twitter freakout over McCabe reveals he’s at his most dangerous
Appearing on an MSNBC panel discussion on the abrupt firing of Deputy FBI Director Andrew McCabe and whether Special Counsel Robert Mueller is next in line, a former Justice Department official warned that a cornered President Donald Trump is now at his most dangerous.
Surely even the most committed Trump true believer can see that describing a POTUS as being ‘cornered’ and ‘dangerous’ is a description which has not been seen in modern times.
We live in interesting times.
No doubt there are many docos being filmed, and many factual books being written about this bad time in US history.
Voice Endeavour @ #102 Monday, March 19th, 2018 – 10:09 am
However, it does appear the Greens can continue to field bad ones.
zoomster says:
Monday, March 19, 2018 at 9:19 am
‘The analysis shows that 350,000 retirees would escape the revenue hike if Labor adjusted its plan to put a $1,000 cap on the cash refunds rather than cancelling them entirely.’
Given that Labor’s figures suggest only 200,000 pensioners are affected by this scheme, someone’s figures are iffy.
I would have thought that there are more than 200 000 pensioners with at least some money in the share market.
@ TPOF –
Other people are using a single data point in their analysis, (i.e. swing to Labor in this election) to conclude that Labor will hold the seat long term.
This ignores the previous large number of data points indicating a general trend to the Greens.
It ignores that the Labor vote was dragged down previously by Feeny being a crap candidate.
Other people’s analysis ignores the divide in the swing between north and south, and thus misunderstands the situation. Other people have made no attempt to link cause with effect.
Other people are ignoring the decades of demographic data we have, because it disagrees with what they want to predict.
In short, other people are not performing analysis. They don’t have any data, they don’t look for any causal relationships, therefore they cannot create a model that can forecast the future.
lizzie @ #2 Monday, March 19th, 2018 – 2:42 am
I agree lizzie,
There’s nothing subtle about him, maybe he’s referring to Molan’s unrestrained and indiscriminate nature !!! 🙂
I think the takeaway for the Greens is that there is a limit as to how far you can get just by virtue signalling, and the Greens have already reached that limit. To get any further traction they have to get down and dirty and actually do stuff.
Long past the limit I reckon. It’s now actually a turn off.
They have set themselves up to fail with their holier than thou marketing spin.
The Dems always presented themselves as deal makers. But by 98 they appear to have attracted the sort of purists that now inhabit the Greens and so when they did deal on the GST they fell apart.
By painting themselves as the virtuous they face a similar problem. To get bigger and more electorally successful they must deal and compromise, but the base attracted by the virtue signalling would revolt.
The voters that just want a good result and those that demand perfection are simply incompatible. I reckon a lot of voters who ditched Labor over it’s internal garbage and being too right wing are starting to find the Greens insufferable and deciding Labor has cleaned up it’s act enough, and the Coalition is far too toxic to not be effectively opposed, so are coming home.
The Greens delude themselves that if only the masses were ‘woke’ they’d come rushing to them and we’d achieve Nirvana. The vast majority simply aren’t interested in the glorious revolution and having the entire society turned upside down for some inner urban hipster idea of paradise. In fact they find the whole idea anathema.
The more thoughtful and less ideological that have flirted with the Greens are working out that the only way to lasting change is the grubby business of piecemeal advances and coalition building. The Green’s strategy of always attacking Labor for any perceived lack of purity then becomes repellent. Once you accept that the location of your political home is as far away from intransigents as possible.
The Greens ain’t going away any time soon, but they look like they’ve reached a point where they will largely have to limit themselves to being a protest party that might pick up some disgruntled Laborites when ever the ALP is at a low ebb. They will be quite effective if they accept the limits of their base support and go for BOP in the Senate. But this lunacy that they can replace the ALP is pure denial of the structure of their most passionate support. Namely a small minority that would rather lose than compromise.
P1 and VE
This is part of what I mean by the weak leadership. A strong leader would have accepted that a person who has run five times and lost needs to move on.
I don’t care what party you are with. Thats fairly basic. A candidate that lost to what we all regard as the poor candidate of Feeney. When Labor was forced to choose someone they went for a good candidate.
If they had not the Greens might have won but maybe not. After all when someone has lost five times before in your electorate is fairly easy not to vote for them again.
Voice Endeavour says:
Monday, March 19, 2018 at 10:09 am
……wherein it is presumed the only thing the Gs need to do is wait and all will be well in the end. Good. Let the Crypto-Tories wait.
@ P1 – you are (deliberately) missing the point. Having a better candidate is a fixed improvement to your vote. It will provide the same benefit to the parties in the next election as in this by election. And the same benefit to the parties in the election after that.
Demographic change is a steadily increasing improvement to the Greens vote.
y = mx will always catch up to y = n, as x increases.
don @ #117 Monday, March 19th, 2018 – 10:28 am
I wouldn’t have. We tend to see the majority of people in a group reflective of those we know in the group. This is anecdotal, not scientific, and is typically wrong. The pensioners I know – and there are not many – are people like me. Most pensioners are not. I suspect, and in the absence of statistics it is only a suspicion, that the only assets that most pensioners have is the pension and, possibly, a few dollars in the bank. Some may own their own home and used all their savings to pay it off. More will have a car. But I think that most pensioners would not know one end of a share from the other and many of those who do hold them acquired them in privatisation or demutualisation programs and have never traded in them.
All guesswork, but I think I’m closer to the actual situation than what is being spread around – especially people who are over 70.
‘Voice Endeavour says:
Monday, March 19, 2018 at 10:34 am
Demographic change is a steadily increasing improvement to the Greens vote.’
Good point. It explains why the Greens national polling is down by nearly a million voters since peak Greens.
From a neutral perspective it seems to me the Batman result was a result of Labor having a good candidate, the Greens having an ordinary candidate and Labor running on bread and butter issues. I never thought a proposed coal mine in QLD would be a defining factor in a Melbourne election.
Neil Mitchell on 3aw was noticeably silent on it too this morning. He would have been all over it if Labor had lost the seat, having spent most of last week bagging Shorten over the tax issue. (‘bungling Bill’ he was calling him). So nice to see the wind taken out of their smart arse sails.
don says: Monday, March 19, 2018 at 10:25 am
We live in interesting times.
No doubt there are many docos being filmed, and many factual books being written about this bad time in US history.
***************************************************
As a result of the McCabe firing – ex FBI Director James Comey’s coming book to be released on April 17 – . On Saturday morning, it was No. 15.”
“On Sunday morning was No. 2 on Amazon’s constantly updated list of best sellers,” CNN noted.
As of Sunday afternoon, it has since moved to #1.
The spike in sales is somewhat reminiscent of the interest in “Fire and Fury,” Michael Wolff’s controversial book about the first months of the Trump administration.
The book jumped to No. 1 on Amazon when excerpts leaked out in January and stayed there when the president’s lawyers tried to stop it from being published.
The book has been at the top of The New York Times best selling books list ever since.
…… now add Andrew McCabe’s sure to be another #1 when released in his expose of dealing with Trump
That’s a great outcome for Labor (and for the people of Batman, who are rid of Feeny), but they still only prolong the inevitable. Demographic change will continue to happen, Labor can’t keep finding better candidates each election.
Keep telling yourself that. Labor will be delighted if the Greens think they just have to wait for the demographics to sweep them into a bunch of inner city seats.
And in fact I did do the analysis of the north/south swing divide in Batman. The areas that swung to the G’s were very strongly related to previous Lib PV. The higher the Lib PV the greater the swing (and so likely to return to the Libs in a general election).
Labor’s swings however seem to be inversely proportional to the strength of Labor’s PV in 16. These are more likely previous Labor voters coming home. They are going to be more sticky.
So sure, assume a party that has been adapting to changing electoral circumstances for over a century won’t continue to adapt and succeed.
Labor won’t be though. Labor will always be able to find excellent quality union boss candidates like Ged btw. Sally McManus for one is almost certainly going to end up in say a seat like Grayndler when Albo finally moves on. Green dreams of taking that one will go about as well as their conceit of letting the demographics do the job for them in Batman.
Voice Endeavour @ #118 Monday, March 19th, 2018 – 10:30 am
Others have pointed out errors in your analysis, although my complaint was really the arrogance in assuming that you are right and others are wrong when we are all just guessing according to which data (to the extent there is any) suits taking us where we want to go.
One point though. Much of the analysis I have seen is pointing at why Labor won this by-election. I have no doubt that the win will be consolidated by having a good local member, not a dipstick who cannot even organise to renounce UK citizenship and/or keep records of something as important as that.
But what happens in the future is not fixed. The Greens may come back – but the signs are not good. And the only way they will ever displace Labor is to become Labor. Which they are trying to do by aping the internal squabbles and feuds but not by actually developing good, long term policies that involve serious thinking and some risk.
PhoenixRed
Have you seen latest from John Schindler?
http://observer.com/2018/03/theresa-may-announces-measures-against-russia-for-sergei-skripal-case/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
Ratsak.
Don’t be so cocky. Remember Feeney only went thanks to S44.
It would have been a different race if not for that.
While I think the Greens need to sort themselves out don’t think they are dead yet. They have a good base to build on.
One they are in danger of losing. However if they do the change needed they can survive and grow.
VE – But what if there is a size beyond which the Greens cannot expand because, if they do, they just become another mainstream political party (which their voters don’t want)? In other words, they can basically never make the switch from fringe to mainstream. The nature of the party means they are are imprisoned in the fringe. It will be interesting to see.
Anton
I object to calling the Greens a fringe party. They have a bigger voting block than the Nationals.
The mood at the White House these days — a former Trump WH official texts me: “I’ve been trying to find jobs for some people still inside and nobody wants to hire a White House person. It’s toxic … Everyone inside is broken. … Everyone is resigned to the worst.”
guytaur says:
Monday, March 19, 2018 at 10:51 am
While I think the Greens need to sort themselves out don’t think they are dead yet. They have a good base to build on.
One they are in danger of losing. However if they do the change needed they can survive and grow.
It’s hard to see what those “changes” might consist of. They have been running anti-Labor lines for a decade and their support has stagnated. They are now demonstrably an electoral surrogate for the LNP. What are they going to do? Become a pro-Labor/Anti-LNP voice? A chapter of GetUp?
They should disband.
guytaur – what about ‘non-mainstream’? My point is the same.
Voice Endeavour,
Demography is one input, but I think there are a few latent and side variables missing from your analysis – such as those to do with policy.
Excellent summary….
Aiden Wolfe
Aiden Wolfe
@AidenWolfe
This isn’t a presidency: it’s a god damn poorly staffed crime syndicate. Entitled sociopathic thugs whose depravity is only matched by their overwhelming incompetence. An endless stream of human sewage somehow passing itself off as an “administration.”
Anton
There are two major parties. Then there is everyone else.
Victoria says: Monday, March 19, 2018 at 10:50 am
PhoenixRed
Have you seen latest from John Schindler?
http://observer.com/2018/03/theresa-may-announces-measures-against-russia-for-sergei-skripal-case/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
************************************************
Thanks Victoria – I am not a fan of Theresa May as such – but as John says – No Western country has been willing to stand up to Putin and his increasingly gangster regime—until now. She, England, the British government is finally showing resolve in confronting outrageous Russian crimes perpetrated on their soil.
@ Boerwar – why would gentrification of the electorate of Batman have any correlation with the national Greens vote numbers?
TPOF says:
Monday, March 19, 2018 at 10:40 am
don @ #117 Monday, March 19th, 2018 – 10:28 am
I would have thought that there are more than 200 000 pensioners with at least some money in the share market.
______
TPOF:
I wouldn’t have. We tend to see the majority of people in a group reflective of those we know in the group. This is anecdotal, not scientific, and is typically wrong. The pensioners I know – and there are not many – are people like me. Most pensioners are not.
Fair enough.
I went looking, and could find nothing definite easily available.
phoenixRED says:
Monday, March 19, 2018 at 10:44 am
don says: Monday, March 19, 2018 at 10:25 am
We live in interesting times.
No doubt there are many docos being filmed, and many factual books being written about this bad time in US history.
__________
…….The book has been at the top of The New York Times best selling books list ever since.
…… now add Andrew McCabe’s sure to be another #1 when released in his expose of dealing with Trump
It is reminiscent of the way that film moguls were delighted when they could advertise:
“BANNED IN BOSTON!”
(for those old enough to remember)
PhoenixRed
Nor am I a fan. Still if the Tories were serious, they would get the Kremlin where it hurts. Seizing assets held in the UK.
Rossmcg @ #92 Monday, March 19th, 2018 – 9:59 am
The old trojan horse trick !
Briefly the Greens just need to be realistic, not shut down. They legitimately represent the views of a significant number of voters. The need to understand that a much larger group do not share their views.
While they work out a way to win enough voters over they should be trying to use the influence they do have to achieve better outcomes in policy & legislation even if those outcomes are only small improvements. Waiting to only support “perfect” policy and vetoing small step solutions only achieves the opposite of what they stand for.
One suggestion I have for them is they ditch the name Greens. It really limits their efforts to sell their philosophies to the wider public.
Voice Endeavour @ #123 Monday, March 19th, 2018 – 10:34 am
Labor have just demonstrated that good policy and good campaigning can overcome demographic change.
When will Bill shorten come out and apologise for the trojan horse dirty trick that’s now been exposed.
The Greens Party will have to tighten up their membership application process following this.
kevjohnno says:
Monday, March 19, 2018 at 11:07 am
One suggestion I have for them is they ditch the name Greens. It really limits their efforts to sell their philosophies to the wider public.
That would probably be a retrograde step. They have brand recognition, and the rank and file (and committed voters) might get upset at any move to ditch the nominal attachment to ‘green’ policies.