I don’t believe we’ll be getting any sort of a federal opinion poll this week, with Newspoll presumably holding off through South Australian election week to return before the resumption of parliament next week, and Essential Research having an off-week in their fortnightly schedule. You can find a post updating progress in late counting in South Australia here; other than that, for the sake of a new general post, I relate the following:
• Ben Raue at The Tally Room has a very illuminating map showing the pattern of swings within Batman, showing a largely status quo result north of the Bell Street curtain, but a quite substantial swing to Labor in the presumed Greens stronghold area in the south. I’ll have more on the Batman by-election in today’s Crikey, if you’re a subscriber.
• Lost in the excitement, the weekend’s other by-election has entirely escaped mention on this site. It was held in the blue-ribbon Western Australian state seat of Cottesloe, to replace Colin Barnett. This produced the predicted walkover for Liberal candidate David Honey, an 59-year-old Alcoa executive and former state party president. Honey finished the night on 59.8% of the primary vote, and 70.2% on two-party preferred over the Greens. At the time of Barnett’s resignation in January, it was generally assumed the party could not let pass an opportunity to add a woman to a parliamentary ranks, but Honey nonetheless won a preselection vote by twenty to eight ahead of BHP Billiton lawyer Emma Roberts. The Liberals elected only two women out of thirteen to the lower house in 2017, along with one out of eight to the upper. At the 2013 election, the party’s lower house contingent included only four women out of thirty-one in the lower house, along with five out of seventen in the upper house, two of whom suffered preselection defeats going into last year’s election.
• A reallocation of Senators’ three-year and six-year terms has been conducted after the Section 44 disqualifications, affecting every state except Victoria. This involved allocating six-year terms to the first six elected candidates in the recounts conducted to fill the vacancies, and three-year terms going to those elected to positions seven through twelve, who will be facing re-election (almost certainly) at the next federal election.
There are two pieces of good news for the Liberals, who gain a long-term seat in New South Wales at the expense of the Nationals, and in Tasmania go from two long-term and two short-term seats to three and one. Fiona Nash’s long-term vacancy in New South Wales goes to Concetta Fierravanti-Wells, whose short-term vacancy has been filled by splashy newcomer Jim Molan. The vacancies in Tasmania, Stephen Perry of the Liberals and Jacqui Lambie of Jacqui Lambie, were both long-term, and have both gone to lower order Liberals, Bushby and Duniam. The one short-term Liberal position goes to Richard Colbeck, returning to parliament after his (provisional) defeat in 2016.
In Western Australia, the Greens order shuffles after Scott Ludlam’s departure with Rachel Siewert taking his long term, and Jordon Steele-John filling Siewert’s short-term vacancy. The loss of Skye Kakoschke-Moore in South Australia has cost the Nick Xenophon Team a seat because the successor to her short term, Tim Storer, has become estranged from the party since the election. It’s a similar story for One Nation in Queensland, where Malcolm Roberts’ short-term vacancy has been filled by the party’s number three candidate, Fraser Anning, who has eventually resolved to sit as an independent after a dispute with Pauline Hanson.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Mark Kenny on the evaporation of Xenophon’s dream.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/xenophon-dreaming-how-a-mood-for-change-evaporated-20180318-p4z4y9.html
Republican senators have warned Trump against firing Special Counsel Robert Mueller and said he must let federal investigators looking into Russian meddling in the US election do their jobs.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/republicans-defend-russia-probe-as-trump-openly-attacks-mueller-20180319-p4z4zx.html
Vehicles older than 15 years – many lacking lifesaving airbags or electronic stability control – should be phased out to reduce road deaths, according to a leading non-profit safety ratings group.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/death-traps-push-to-phase-out-cars-made-before-2002-20180313-p4z458.html
The Black Wiggle has blamed sabotage for the loss in Batman.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/greens-leader-richard-di-natale-blames-sabotage-for-batman-loss-20180318-p4z4xf.html
Michelle Grattan writes that Batman is a strong victory for Shorten, but he still has a selling job on tax move.
https://theconversation.com/batman-is-a-strong-victory-for-shorten-but-he-still-has-a-selling-job-on-tax-move-93556
Jess Irvine tells us why it’s finally time to ban mortgage broker commissions.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/why-it-s-finally-time-to-ban-mortgage-broker-commissions-20180318-p4z4ws.html
CBA endured a torrid opening week of hearings at the Hayne royal commission and the financial giant’s chief executive has warned staff it is not likely to get any better when the inquiry resumes this morning.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/we-ve-treated-customers-unfairly-cba-boss-warns-of-more-bad-news-20180318-p4z4xq.html
The SMH reviews the weekend’s electoral results and concludes that the centre is holding firm.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/winners-and-losers-in-festival-of-democracy-20180318-h0xmuf.html
Richo reckons Steven Marshall pulled off a Bradbury. Google.
/opinion/columnists/graham-richardson/nick-xenophons-dismal-display-the-lucky-break-liberals-needed/news-story/33b870fc72b68352ba5a552b820a72b2
And PvO explains how the weekend proved how difficult it is for minor parties to challenge the two party system. Google.
/opinion/columnists/peter-van-onselen/for-all-the-noise-of-the-minor-parties-politics-is-a-twohorse-race/news-story/1dc92972c632d1db098b3703e3ee14c2
Mark Butler in this op-ed tells us how Ged Kearney’s resounding win in Batman – and Jay Weatherill’s gutsy election campaign in South Australia – were powerful demonstrations of Labor’s willingness to take on all parties in a contest over values.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/this-is-how-labor-wins-elections-20180318-p4z4zf.html
Laura Tingle concludes her contribution in this subject by saying that both major parties could do well to now reassess just how much work they have to do in trying to appease the further left and further right of their bases, and concentrate on the centre they both need to win to nab the next federal election. Google.
/news/politics/election/south-australian-batman-elections-show-the-psychology-of-politics-has-changed-20180318-h0xmv2
The Berejiklian government has made changes to the leadership at the very top of the department responsible for water policy following scandals over the administration of water in New South Wales.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/mar/19/berejiklian-makes-change-at-the-top-as-coalition-tries-to-dampen-water-scandals
Labor’s dividend tax policy is smart, bold – and dangerous says Greg Jericho.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2018/mar/18/labors-dividend-tax-policy-is-smart-bold-and-dangerous
Facebook is under scrutiny for a massive data breach by a consultant linked to Donald Trump’s election campaign.
https://www.theage.com.au/world/north-america/facebook-left-red-faced-after-trump-campaign-linked-data-breached-20180318-p4z4yq.html
Darren Rexter examines the ways in which the privatisation of the Commonwealth Employment Service has failed job seekers and employers alike.
https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/commonwealth-employment-service-the-pitfalls-of-privatisation,11304
A pretty good contribution from Urban Wronski this week.
https://urbanwronski.com/2018/03/19/from-the-conundrum-of-the-sa-election-to-the-riddle-of-the-asean-way/
The ACT Greens will move to make abortions more accessible and affordable, with a bill to make it legal for doctors to prescribe RU486 in the territory.
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/greens-put-forward-bill-to-allow-abortion-drugs-by-prescription-in-canberra-20180315-h0xigw.html
Why Japan’s smoking laws are stuck ‘in the last century’.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/2018/03/18/japan-smoking-laws/
Stung by accusations of spreading “fake news”, the Vatican has released the complete letter by Emeritus Pope Benedict XVI in which the former pontiff criticises the direction the church is taking under his successor, Pope Francis.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/2018/03/18/popes-francis-and-benedicts-clash-over-doctrine/
Cartoon Corner – such a paucity today!
David Rowe and some political road kill.
Sean Leahy on White House job creation.
Jon Kudelka with the Greens’ Batman post mortem.
https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/8e24e6ac14683ed4f451bdb227fa1373
More in here.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/best-of-fairfax-cartoons-march-19-2018-20180318-h0xn2w.html
Very interesting description by William: Molan the “splashy newcomer”. Not sure why he chose that adjective, as IMO Molan doesn’t make so much of a splash as a thud. 😉
Kushner family filed false documents on New York City properties to reap millions in profits: report
According to an exclusive Associated Press report, the family of White House Adviser Jared Kushner filed multiple false documents with the New York City housing authorities that allowed them to reap millions in profits on properties they flipped.
The report states that the Kushner’s real estate companies bought “three apartment buildings in a gentrifying neighborhood of Queens in 2015,” and that “most of the tenants were protected by special rules that prevent developers from pushing them out, raising rents.”
Two years later, Associated Press reports, all three buildings were sold for $60 million — nearly 50 percent more than the purchase price.
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/03/kushner-family-filed-false-documents-new-york-city-properties-reap-millions-profits-report/
lizzie @ #2 Monday, March 19th, 2018 – 6:42 am
SASsy, maybe?
Trump’s unhinged attacks on Comey pushes fired FBI director’s upcoming tell-all book to #1 best seller spot
he president’s attacks on the FBI, former FBI Director James Comey and the recently fired former FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe have apparently helped the sales of Comey’s upcoming potential tell-all.
Comey’s book, “A Higher Loyalty: Truth, Lies, and Leadership,” won’t be released until April 17. As CNN reported on Sunday, however, the president’s most recent attacks have helped it surge on best sellers’ lists.
On Saturday morning, it was No. 15.” As of Sunday afternoon, it has since moved to #1.
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/03/trumps-unhinged-attacks-comey-pushes-fired-fbi-directors-upcoming-tell-book-1-best-seller-spot/
Multiple witnesses tell Mueller: Jeff Sessions lied under oath about opposing Russia outreach during campaign
US. Attorney General Jeff Sessions’ testimony that he opposed a proposal for President Donald Trump’s 2016 campaign team to meet with Russians has been contradicted by three people who told Reuters they have spoken about the matter to investigators with Special Counsel Robert Mueller or congressional committees.
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/03/multiple-witnesses-tell-mueller-jeff-sessions-lied-oath-opposing-russia-outreach-campaign/
‘You can smell the fear’: Ex-DOJ official warns Trump’s Twitter freakout over McCabe reveals he’s at his most dangerous
Appearing on an MSNBC panel discussion on the abrupt firing of Deputy FBI Director Andrew McCabe and whether Special Counsel Robert Mueller is next in line, a former Justice Department official warned that a cornered President Donald Trump is now at his most dangerous.
Speaking with AM Joy host Joy Reid, former Justice Department spokesperson Matt Miller said Trump has become untethered from advice from his aides and is attacking his perceived enemies out of fear.
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/03/can-smell-fear-ex-doj-official-warns-trumps-twitter-freakout-mccabe-reveals-dangerous/
CNN trolls Melania’s upcoming ‘cyberbullying summit’ with a list of insults Trump uses on Twitter
A CNN segment that began by praising First Lady Melania Trump’s upcoming “cyberbullying summit” with tech leaders took a darker turn when New Day hosts Victor Blackwell and Christi Paul shared a list of insults and slurs her husband regularly uses on Twitter.
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/03/watch-cnn-trolls-melanias-upcoming-cyberbullying-summit-list-insults-trump-uses-twitter/
Last night I heard Pats Karvelas for the first time. She’s a snappy version of Leigh Sales. Di Natale didn’t do too badly and Mark Butler stood up very well (I still can’t get used to his beard, although I suppose the effect is more ‘mature’).
In NSW, water seems to be controlled by the Dept of Industry. “The department, which reports to the National party minister, Niall Blair, is responsible for the portfolios of primary industries and water, as well as industry policy.”
It’s a brown paper bag kind of control, apparently.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/mar/19/berejiklian-makes-change-at-the-top-as-coalition-tries-to-dampen-water-scandals
Bill Palmer pointed this paragraph out in a NY Times article to explain Trumps twitter storm
( https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/17/us/politics/trump-mueller-dowd.html )
QUOTE : “The president’s tweets, posted on a Saturday in which he remained inside the White House with no public schedule, came as Mr. Mueller is said to have sent questions to Mr. Trump’s legal team as part of negotiations over an interview with the president. Mr. Mueller is seeking the interview, according to two people close to the White House, in order to ask follow-up questions, but put forward the list as a start.”
In other words, now that Trump has received the questions and realized he’s facing a no-win situation when it comes to the interview, he’s become even more unhinged than usual.
Donald Trump can’t win no matter what he does from here. If he agrees to the interview and tells the truth, he’ll be confessing to his crimes. If he lies during the interview, that’s a felony. If he invokes the Fifth Amendment to avoid the interview, that’ll be the end of him politically.
It appears the SmearStralian is awaiting orders from the demented plutocrat in New York.
Last week, up to 7 KillBill articles focussing on his ‘appalling judgement’ in announcing an end to dividend imputation rort. Today, zero articles. What a difference a weekend makes.
Fun fact: News Ltd pays dividends, but no franking credits, as it pays no tax in Australia. So here is somewhere the SMSF brigade could switch their franking credit shares…
Sic transit gloria…
As I have pointed out several times over the past week, the Senior Executive Service’s job is to take the fall for the minister.
We have a US visitor, and a most welcome one!
Barack Obama will be here Friday and Saturday….
The Black Wiggle has a tin ear..
Greens leader Richard Di Natale says the Greens were “fighting against a big machine” and “a few people undermined” the campaign in Batman. He says Batman and SA are blips on the radar and major parties are still in decline.
sprocket_
Not a tin ear as much as an inability to face reality, a quality known to be compulsory for all aspiring leaders and which saves them from self harm.
Hold on a minute… I thought the Greens were claiming to be a big grown up party?
And all the time they were a poor oppressed protest group being bullied by that nasty Ged Kearney.
Who knew?
Don’t bother with the Tingle article. It would have been better if she’d made her conclusion her contention – that might have made an interesting discussion – but otherwise it’s pretty vapid and filled with dubious statements like “Nick Xenophon – who at his best has proven himself to be the canniest of political operators in state politics then in the Senate..’
I keep reading Tingle in hope, but she keeps disappointing.
Read more: http://www.afr.com/news/politics/election/south-australian-batman-elections-show-the-psychology-of-politics-has-changed-20180318-h0xmv2#ixzz5A8Sg2ECj
I note that William has penned the following in his introduction.
I will say nothing about the redoubtable Mrs. F – W; but synonyms for splashy include
Who can truly know the mind of another ❓ What could William have had in his mind ❓
We know he is of a literary bent as witness his “character” frolics (mid year and Christmas) such as “Wind in the Willows” where the best costume went to “Ratty” played by a blow in LNP senator from the far North.
Where was I Muriel ❓ Oh yes ❗ The mind of William.
My best guess is that the “spot” scene from Macbeth was front and centre.
Another thought is that William is teasing us with his mastery of “chaos theory” and was thinking of the mysteries of water flowing over a rock and the mathematical problems of plotting an exact course of a selected drop.
I dips me lid William, with just a few carefully crafted words you have given me food for though for today.
Time for my morning tablets and fresh coffee.
☮ ✌ ☕
Thanks BK.
My worst fears about Xenophon’s stupid campaign ad have been realised.
It may well have lost him one or two seats, lost Labor the chance to form government, and thus set back the renewable industry while assisting Turnbull’s equally stupid and pointless NEG.
KayJay @ #19 Monday, March 19th, 2018 – 7:51 am
Beautifully put KJ – however, it does make Lady MacBeth sound too much like Lady Jewellery McBishop (“OK, it’s not quite time to do it now”). I prefer the original version:
“Out, damned spot! Out, I say!—One, two. Why, then, ’tis time to do ’t. Hell is murky!—Fie, my lord, fie! A soldier, and afeard? What need we fear who knows it, when none can call our power to account?—Yet who would have thought the old man to have had so much blood in him?”.
Wasn’t Molan in charge of Operation Sovereign Borders for a while, in charge of on water matters hence ‘splashy’.
I might be mistaken, I tend get my conservatives mixed up.
Also this weeks Urban Wronski
https://urbanwronski.com/2018/03/19/from-the-conundrum-of-the-sa-election-to-the-riddle-of-the-asean-way/
Splashy, as in a turd hitting the water ?
rhwombat, I think you doth complain too much.
Tim Colebatch on Batman by-election:
http://insidestory.org.au/saturdays-two-big-contests-the-morning-after/
Very interesting description by William: Molan the “splashy newcomer”. Not sure why he chose that adjective, as IMO Molan doesn’t make so much of a splash as a thud.
My immediate thought was that Molan made a similar splash to the one you hear not long after sitting on a Royal Doulton throne.
The greens are always whinging about the duopoly. Now that they just lost the duel in Batman, they’re whinging about a big Labor monopoly. The Guardian talking head on ABC brekky gave an example of Shorten phoning the Catholic Education sector to get support with robocalls saying the greens wanted to cut funding. Well, the greens did vote with the LNP to do that with their cuts to Gonski, there’s consequences for actions. The media groupthink has also swung to Labor only won because of green infighting, there’s that lucky Bill again.
Geez, according to AM, the LNP had a ‘thumping’ election victory in SA, and the ALP suffered a ‘drubbing’.
In what kind of parallel universe do these people live?
Morning all
Bushfires in Victoria and NSW. Keep forgetting it is past the middle of March. Cray cray.
So pleased with the result in Batman. It is the electorate I grew up in and next door to the electorate I now reside. In light of the recent state Northcote by election, I was a little anxious!!
Meanwhile March madness continues unabated in Trumplandia.
What will he do next? It won’t matter cos the end result is going to be the same for him. I know I keep repeating myself, but he and his family are stuffed.
Bit by bit the picture is being formed as to all the players and games played.
Still taking too long for my liking as I had resolved that by end of March, Trump and his cronies would be out on their behinds!!!
The SA election was won, for the most part, through the redistribution of boundaries. Malcolm has a damned cheek to pretend he now has a ‘mandate’ for his NEG.
Pegasus @ #26 Monday, March 19th, 2018 – 7:14 am
Labor ran a very effective postal vote campaign, the greens ? The higher postal vote probably reflects that.
https://theconversation.com/sidelining-citizens-when-deciding-on-transport-projects-is-asking-for-trouble-92840
urbanwronski
My assets are so low this did not affect me, but I’m wondering what the Greens’ rationale was.
lizzie,
Re-posting yet again:
Better pensions – Fact sheet https://greens.org.au/node/11448
An excerpt:
Craig Emerson in the AFR:
Cash refunds for dividend imputation were not part of the Keating imputation system. The Howard-Costello government introduced them in 2000 as a sweetener fro self-funded retirees who would be adversely affected by the stated plan to tax family trusts as companies.
In the event, Howard buckled under the pressure from the National Party and reneged on Costello’s signed agreement with shadow treasurer Simon Creen to tax trusts as companies. But he and Costello kept the sweetener anyway… It now costs more than $5 billion annually and is heading towards a $8 billion annual drain on the budget…”
Snap, Vogon. One party ran a postal vote campaign, the other didn’t. One would expect that the party that did would do better than the party that didn’t.
Anyhoo…
‘Party strategists have blamed the focus on these national issues, the strong personal appeal of Labor candidate Ged Kearney, bullying allegations against Greens candidate Alex Bhatal and claims of a preference deal between Labor and the Australian Conservatives for the shock loss to Labor on Saturday.’
Those would be the party strategists who didn’t take any of these things into account. They’re the ones who made the election about ‘these national issues’.
‘Senator Di Natale said the party had made “incredible inroads in Labor’s heartland with a positive campaign on Adani, refugees and inequality”.’
If he wasn’t a Green, a statement like this would have been described as ‘spin’, probably with the words ‘delusional’ and ‘out of touch’ thrown in.
Greens don’t lie, however, so this one goes through to the keeper.
‘”But it is absolutely clear that we have to get our own house in order if we’re going to win back traditional Greens voters who were turned off by the leaking and sabotage from a few individuals with a destructive agenda,” he said.’
These problems face all parties, they’re not peculiar to the Greens. And if the Greens had followed their own processes, instead of stonewalling the complainants, it all might have gone very differently.
Deny people of the right to be heard, and they’ll go and talk elsewhere.
‘One local Greens figure said the tactics of running hard on federal issues such as the Adani mine and asylum seekers rather than local concerns like Labor was focused on was a big factor in the loss.
“We got so caught up with speaking to our own base, the votes we needed to win were not going to come from Adani,” the insider said.’
Exactly so.
‘The same person said the preselection of Ms Kearney was also a major contributor because it showed how soft the vote is among Greens voters when given the choice of voting for a progressive Labor candidate.’
Labor also ran progressive Labor candidates in Northcote and (at the last federal election) in Melbourne. What was different in Batman was that Labor ran a genuine Labor candidate – one of those boo-hiss unionists the CPG likes to tell us should be avoided.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/greens-leader-richard-di-natale-blames-sabotage-for-batman-loss-20180318-p4z4xf.html
Another excerpt (for those people who don’t bother to click on links to read articles in full):
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan/03/debate-is-the-new-means-test-for-the-aged-pension-fair
Will be interesting
Carole Cadwalladr
Carole Cadwalladr
@carolecadwalla
·
21m
Channel 4 News in association with The Guardian & Observer
The revelations to come…
Channel 4 News
@Channel4News
Tomorrow, we’ll take you inside the world of Cambridge Analytica after our reporters went undercover as prospective clients.
The full story tomorrow night at 19:00 GMT – on Channel 4 News.
The Greens, independents and other minor parties don’t have the financial resources to run postal campaigns.
Postal campaigns by the two major parties create an unlevel playing field.
Peg
Don’t be so quick to assume we don’t follow links. As I was the one who asked the question, I naturally would click on it.
Have to go now. Play nice and have a good day.
The spinning is so much fun to watch.
For weeks now our resident Greens have been letting no chance pass to tell us all how Shorten was a fraud on Adani and even had polls to prove no one was buying his neither fish nor fowl position. How Adani was Labor’s mine and how important an issue it was in Batman.
So important it was going to be decisive.
That went well didn’t it.
ok just saw your reply lizzie,
I made no such assumption about you. It is often obvious in replies from some individuals that they don’t follow the links, assume others don’t and just make stuff up.
It’s the same tactics as those who report the next morning about what someone said the night before here, in the likely expectation that people don’t have the inclination or time to read back comments.
ratsak
The other side of that coin is that the Greens put forward their arguments on Adani and refugees, Labor put forward their’s, and Labor’s was the preferred position.
peg
Given that you addressed one of the excerpts to lizzie directly, and no one else seems to have involved themselves in the discussion, the only person you can be accusing of not reading the article is lizzie.
Victoria says: Monday, March 19, 2018 at 8:43 am
Will be interesting
@Channel4News
Tomorrow, we’ll take you inside the world of Cambridge Analytica after our reporters went undercover as prospective clients.
**************************************************
Victoria – I am reading that Cambridge Analytica are doing everything to stop the report from being aired
Facebook Opens Investigation As Cambridge Analytica Tries To Stop Broadcast Expose
https://www.politicususa.com/2018/03/18/facebook-opens-investigation-as-cambridge-analytica-tries-to-stop-broadcast-expose.html
The more that is learned about how Facebook and Twitter were turned into pro-Trump Russian weapons the more difficult it is to ignore the obvious questions about what social media companies knew and what they allowed to happen during the election. Cambridge Analytica was an important player in the Trump/Russia scandal because they are the point where illegal coordination turned into the targeting of voters.
Cambridge Analytica is a big part of how the Russians got Trump into the White House.
The Liberals won the SA election with 52% of the 2PP. They ran on support for the NEG. Marshall has a mandate to support the NEG. I assume that the consequences will presumably be indirect and possibly even direct subsidies for more coal burning and gas burning.
And the Goyder line reaching Kangaroo Island that much sooner.
peg
It’s OK. All good.
‘Pegasus says:
Monday, March 19, 2018 at 8:45 am
The Greens, independents and other minor parties don’t have the financial resources to run postal campaigns.
Postal campaigns by the two major parties create an unlevel playing field.’
So? Sprinkle your problems with pixie dust, add some magic water, and chant some ohms under a pyramid.
And do stop whinging.