BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor

Very slight movement back to the Coalition on the latest poll aggregate this week, with a not-quite-so-bad Newspoll providing the only new numbers.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate is drifting back towards the Coalition as other pollsters fail to replicate their particularly bad result from ReachTEL a fortnight ago. There is no change on the seat projection, though this is due to the correction of an error that short-changed Labor two seats in Queensland last week. The is balanced by Coalition gains of one seat apiece in New South Wales and Victoria. Newspoll’s latest numbers have taken a big chunk out of Malcolm Turnbull’s readings on the leadership trends, while Bill Shorten holds even on net approval. Enjoy all the results in detail by clicking on the image below.

Note that there’s a post below this one on Newspoll’s latest state voting intention result from Victoria.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,643 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor”

Comments Page 50 of 53
1 49 50 51 53
  1. Greg Barns‏ @BarnsGreg · 8h8 hours ago

    #auspol when will the media wake up and call @AusBorderForce for what it is- a fascist organisation that threatens the rule of law and democracy

  2. bemused @ #2431 Monday, March 12th, 2018 – 5:59 pm

    I signed this petition earlier today and request others on PB sign.

    https://www.change.org/p/peter-dutton-bring-priya-back-to-biloela

    It is good to see a small Qld town experiencing the full nastiness of Dutton’s Gestapo and feeling outrage. They deserve support.

    Thanks for the reference. I have signed and agree absolutely regarding sheer bastardry involved.

    🐘 Imaginary silver elephant stamp.

  3. **Can we lay off the tard talk please. Not interested in anyone’s sophistry in response to this.**

    I feel for Leo.

  4. The raping of Australia’s natural resources by foreign companies is a scandal. I note today that Shell executives were saying Australia might ‘miss out’ on new LNG project investment if tax cuts aren’t forthcoming, well fantastic news if that is true.

    ‘An Oxford University expert says Australia would be $90 billion better off if it adopted European-style resource tax policies and argues the Turnbull government has given up on collecting a meaningful amount of revenue from some of its most valuable resources.
    In one of a suite of new submissions to a Senate inquiry, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies academic Juan Carlos Boué warned unless Australia “radically overhauled its fiscal regime” it would have the second lowest share of government revenue from oil and gas in the world.
    Australia is on track to eclipse Qatar as the largest exporter of gas by 2020, but is expected to only earn $600 million in 2018 – the same amount of revenue the government earns in beer tax every year – compared to Qatar’s $26.6 billion.’

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/staggering-90-billion-lost-in-resources-tax-20180305-p4z2uv.html

  5. Cheers and thanks on the issue of the use of “tard”
    Reading this blog – seems there are plenty more insults available to criticise posters you disagree with.
    Much appreciated.

  6. Stop pretending that ‘tard’ tacked onto the name of something, as in Libtard, Greentard, Labtard etc is not a combination of Name + retard!

    Posting words like leotard or bastard which are words in their own right, not slang for ‘retarded libs/greens/etc’ is no defence.

    Greentard is shorthand for retarded Green. Retard is a label which is hurtful and nasty. Its common use was by schoolyard bullies and ignorant adults.

    Stop using it and do not ever post it here. I am offended on behalf of the people I assist and embarrassed to find it here when we all should have learned better from NDIS discussions.

    I dislike the use of these “+tard” words because they denigrate people with developmental delay and/or intellectual disability, a most vulnerable social group, and I want this to stop.

  7. Marsh is in for a good time, not necessarily a long time.

    If he lasts till lunch it could be a match winning lead.

  8. Personally I am predicting a hung parliament very likely resulting in a minority Labor government with Greens support or a Labor-Green Coalition government at the May 2019 election, since Turnbull will keep parliament sitting as long as possible before the three year senator’s terms expire (30 June 2019).

    The Greens at the next election could up to four seats (Batman, Wills, Melbourne and Melbourne Ports) they will likely be the kingmakers. There is a lesser chance that Cathy McGowan, Bob Katter and other independents who might get elected and support a minority Coalition government.

  9. Now some unkind people will say Barnbaby Joyce’s moving of the APVA is a pork barrel exercise costing tens of millions and stuffing up the APVMA. BUT as the great humanitarian himself explains it is actually about saving the lives of billions. True story……
    .
    ‘People will starve’: Barnaby Joyce explains another reason for APVMA move

    ……………….needed to create centres of excellence to deal with the incredibly noble task, which is the feeding of 10 billion people by around about 2050″.
    “We have got to do our part. If we don’t do our part then somewhere between now and 2050 people are going to start starving to death, because we won’t have that capacity to provide that food.”
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/people-will-starve-barnaby-joyce-explains-another-reason-for-apvma-move-20180312-h0xd1a.html

  10. Oh dear.

    P1 is busy doing what P1 does best: shift and/or confuse the goal posts.

    Let’s go back to taws and to my original contention. I have pushed the boundaries a bit to help P1 and other dreamers to understand what is happening in the real agricultural world.

    Peasant/subsistence agriculture generated nasty, brutish and short lives. Food was often contaminated by human dung, was infested with biodiversity including mice, rats (their droppings and their dried urine) weevils, fungi, viruses and bacteria. Whole crops regularly failed because it was too wet, too cold, too dry or too hot. Fungi and other pathogens regularly wiped out crops. Plagues of insects regularly chewed their way through crops. Endo- and ecto- parasite cycles were common rather than the exception. Ergot disease was a horror. Life expectancy was in the high thirties, low forties.

    Food production was completely at the whim of the weather, frosts, heat waves, droughts, flooding rains, humid spells; starvation, hunger and malnutrition were common.

    The beauty of all this in the Golden Age misty-eyed believers? It was totally organic and totally infested with biodiversity. I should point out that as a child in Holland I worked on the very tail end of this in Europe: I picked potatoes into wicker baskets which were then loaded onto a punt and the punt poled to the farmstead. The fields had been ploughed using horses. The milking cows were stalled in the Big House.

    I am actually beginning to understand that the Bludgers who extol the vital necessity of biodiversity for agricultural production actually do not understand modern farming at all. They know it is BAD because it is BAD or (to use adrian’s insight ‘stupid’, but they have little or no idea about how it actually works.

    Modern low biodiversity agriculture is more and more as close to zero biodiversity agriculture as farmers can make it. The soil is treated with fumigants that kill everything – all biodiversity. Crops are seeded into this with the necessary crop nutrients. The soil is no longer a soil in the biodiversity sense. It is a matrix. Arriving pests, fungi, pathogens etc, etc, etc get sprayed and killed. The crop plants are more and more extra -biodiversity in the sense of being GMOs.

    To clarify, the gist is this: the less biodiversity the better the productivity. It is this dynamic which enables us to feed humankind today.

    Rather than being ever more vulnerable to climatic parameters, agriculture has never been less vulnerable to climatic parameters. The responses include irrigation, using GMO technology to fast track plant responses to temperature extremes and weather extremes and an increasing array of cropping inside buildings, shade houses and the like. Inter alia, there is an increasing incidence of double and triple crops in the same infrastructure. Where is this taking us? There is $35 billion plus per year invested in MDB crops. 99% by value of the MDB crops come from 1% of the land area. 15% of Australia’s vine tomatoes are grown in a single installation that desalinates sea water, uses renewable energy to climate control the growing houses and exports excess energy to the grid. This is in one of the hottest places in Australia.

    As I noted above this approach does depend on the full range of crop plant genetics being preserved and hundreds of millions are being invested to make sure this happens.

    As for biodiversity, it mostly has pest value as far as both peasant and modern agriculture is concerned. The difference is that modern farmers have a technical array at their disposal that peasants could only dream about.

    As I have previously pointed out, modern agriculture is no longer earthbound. Issues with addressing global warming are far more likely to be organizational and the lack of capital than climate.

    These are the reasons that the subsistence farmers who took over white capital intensive farms in Zimbabwe took Zimbabwe from bread basket to basket case.

  11. poroti
    That ‘explanation’ is a classic bit of fuckwittery.
    Rural industry leaders begged him not to do it because of the disruption to agriculture.

  12. Jay

    Any basis for these predictions?

    The longer Turnbull hangs on, the solider the vote for Labor will be, so there is less likely to be a drift away from Labor during the campaign proper.

    If Turnbull goes, there most likely be a series of leaders (a la dying days of Labor in NSW), each eroding the Liberal vote more.

    It’s hard to see a scenario where Labor’s vote declines between now and the next election.

    Based on the polling trends and the ‘competency’ of the Abbott/Turnbull government/s*, the only sensible prediction is a solid Labor win. The only question would be by how much – but a hung Parliament seems very unlikely.

    *This has been a team effort. It is precisely the quality of the team behind both A & T which makes a Coalition comeback highly implausible.

  13. ““We have got to do our part. If we don’t do our part then somewhere between now and 2050 people are going to start starving to death, because we won’t have that capacity to provide that food.”

    Barnaby is of course one of Australia’s greatest humanitarians. Take Adani. Apart from employing 300,000 people in Central Queensland (or was that 3 million?), it would ensure that poor people in India had enough power to cook dinner.

  14. *This has been a team effort. It is precisely the quality of the team behind both A & T which makes a Coalition comeback highly implausible.

    ne’er a truer word spoke!

    imbeciles and arseholes all the way down.

    (but no ‘tards…)

  15. In regard to the earlier discussions on that article about all Winston Churchill, it would pay to read some of the comments under the article where some of the facts claimed in the article are refuted.

    I reckon Churchill was all that Boerwar says he was, and deplorable in his actions and attitudes. There is no forgiveness for that.

    He was undoubtedly a miserable bastard, but he was the miserable bastard Britain needed in WW2 and in the lead up to it. Otherwise the peasant-hating, anti-semetic, Hitler-loving, Nazi apologists in the upper classes (right up to some members of the royal family) would have welcomed to England Hitler and his program of killing of Communists, Jews, Gays, Gypsies, the disabled and anyone else they hated.

    They would probably have used Northern Island for the concentration camps (invented by the British in Southern Africa btw).

    Churchill had more than rhetoric going for him, and it was needed.
    Sometimes good people do terrible things, sometimes terrible people do good things, depending on the quirks of fate.

    I do know how much the ordinary people of Britain relied on him to help them to hang on and fight back, and that I would not like the responsibility of the decisions he needed to make.

    I am just very glad he was there in the right place at the right time.

  16. Impressed that Leigh Sales has got through most of the interview with Turnbull without giggling or gushing. Must have been counselled

  17. In terms of the steel and aluminium tariffs, Australia is getting the same treatment as Mexico.

    What did Mexico ever do for Trump except to tell him where he could stick his wall?

  18. Almost made it. Big smile when she asks about the 30 NewsPolls. And finishes with a laugh, with Malcolm grinning.

    The fix is in.

  19. Puff, The Magic Dragon @ #2471 Monday, March 12th, 2018 – 7:05 pm

    Stop pretending that ‘tard’ tacked onto the name of something, as in Libtard, Greentard, Labtard etc is not a combination of Name + retard!

    Posting words like leotard or bastard which are words in their own right, not slang for ‘retarded libs/greens/etc’ is no defence.

    Greentard is shorthand for retarded Green. Retard is a label which is hurtful and nasty. Its common use was by schoolyard bullies and ignorant adults.

    Stop using it and do not ever post it here. I am offended on behalf of the people I assist and embarrassed to find it here when we all should have learned better from NDIS discussions.

    I dislike the use of these “+tard” words because they denigrate people with developmental delay and/or intellectual disability, a most vulnerable social group, and I want this to stop.

    You are flouting William’s request and you are wrong.

  20. “Personally I am predicting a hung parliament very likely resulting in a minority Labor government with Greens support or a Labor-Green Coalition government at the May 2019 election, since Turnbull will keep parliament sitting as long as possible before the three year senator’s terms expire (30 June 2019).
    The Greens at the next election could up to four seats (Batman, Wills, Melbourne and Melbourne Ports) they will likely be the kingmakers. There is a lesser chance that Cathy McGowan, Bob Katter and other independents who might get elected and support a minority Coalition government.”

    Predicting or hoping? The Greens taking four seats is very premature considering if Labor does win the election soft green voters are likely to vote Labor at the election as they did in the Rudd landslide in 2007. Greens also do well when progressive voters are disenchanted with Labor as they were in 2010, they haven’t been able to top 11.76% of the vote since that election.

    If Labor wins which is looking more likely they will have likely won enough seats in outer suburbs and inner regions seats in other states that they won’t need to rely on any minor parties or independents to form government.

  21. Fulvio Sammut says:
    Monday, March 12, 2018 at 6:29 pm

    …”GG, weren’t you recommending various ways of turning a pillow into a murder weapon, for use against Empathy, in the early hours of this morning?”…

    .
    It was more advice on avoiding it, rather than a how to guide.

  22. mari

    Re Rowe , a bit of a ‘compare and contrast’ when it come to the original and Rowe version 🙂 Rowe as ever the details man look at Putin’s feet position ,pose,clothing and Stalin’s


    .

  23. @ Puff – 7:43pm:

    “but he was the miserable bastard Britain needed in WW2 and in the lead up to it. Otherwise the peasant-hating, anti-semetic, Hitler-loving, Nazi apologists in the upper classes (right up to some members of the royal family) would have welcomed to England Hitler and his program of killing of Communists, Jews, Gays, Gypsies, the disabled and anyone else they hated.

    They would probably have used Northern Island for the concentration camps (invented by the British in Southern Africa btw).”

    Pretty much wrong on all accounts. Now don’t get me wrong – I think on balance it was right to fight the bastard in 1940 onwards but it wasn’t strictly speaking necessary.

    The terms Hitler offered England would have seen none of the things you speculate happen.

    Hitler’s war machine was designed with land warfare in mind only. No strategic airforce or navy. Hitler wanted to settle scores in contentential Western Europe before taking on the soviets & that conflict would have happened, with or without British neutrality. The miscalculation in what it would have taken to both conquer and then hold Russia would likely have made the same result enevitable. In any event everything else other than the great Germanic-Soviet War 1941-45 was largely a side show.

  24. A-E

    ‘In any event everything else other than the great Germanic-Soviet War 1941-45 was largely a side show.’

    Which would come as a bit of a surprise to China which lost around 20 million people in World War Two.

  25. Boerwar

    And how many of those were civilians ? When it came to fight the “Narzis” Rossiya was where 90% of the action was.

  26. In my opinion, the next Federal election will most likely be held on Saturday May 18, 2019, given that an election for half the Senate must be held on or before this date. The NSW election on March 23 (and maybe Easter on Sunday April 21) will muck up plans for a March or April election.

    It will follow: massive disinformation campaigns by vested interests, including the Murdochracy, in support of the Government; full revelations of whatever the Coalition-Newscorp dirt units have on Labor; and an early giveaway Budget. Indeed, if you’re in a demographic that includes swinging voters, Turnbull and Morrison will be leaping out of the bushes stuffing money into your pockets. Deficit? What deficit?

    The election result is no foregone conclusion.

Comments Page 50 of 53
1 49 50 51 53

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *