BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor

Very slight movement back to the Coalition on the latest poll aggregate this week, with a not-quite-so-bad Newspoll providing the only new numbers.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate is drifting back towards the Coalition as other pollsters fail to replicate their particularly bad result from ReachTEL a fortnight ago. There is no change on the seat projection, though this is due to the correction of an error that short-changed Labor two seats in Queensland last week. The is balanced by Coalition gains of one seat apiece in New South Wales and Victoria. Newspoll’s latest numbers have taken a big chunk out of Malcolm Turnbull’s readings on the leadership trends, while Bill Shorten holds even on net approval. Enjoy all the results in detail by clicking on the image below.

Note that there’s a post below this one on Newspoll’s latest state voting intention result from Victoria.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,643 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor”

Comments Page 49 of 53
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  2. bemused

    ‘So I am free to take offence at any word directed to me?’

    The implication of this is that the people who are telling you they find your use of language offensive aren’t really offended, but are pretending to be.

    You could work from the basis that they genuinely are, and show their concerns a little respect.

  3. @bemused
    I find offensive that you are using “tard”.

    Regardless of how it’s used!

    Tard is an insult to ones intelligence.

    And for a Labor person that you are would bring disaster to Labor if you bring down to the point of being that ‘low’ N.korea leader intelligence level with Donald Trump.

    People who are Disabled can take offense even if it’s not directed at them but refer to others intelligence.

    So Bemused I would limit you’re use of insults.

  5. Boerwar (and others) – have you read ‘Call of the reed warbler” by Charles Massey. He has amassed a lot of data about potential win-wins from less ‘industrialised” farming/food production for food, biodiversity, soil health and human health. He also highlights a lot of problems with monoculture/chemical farming. I recommend the book.

  6. “So I am free to take offence at any word directed to me?”

    Exactly but whether or not you or the person who offends you gets the sympathy is a difficult call. It is around community. Offending certain racists, even if you didn’t mean it, would have once got you kudos in Australia, now most intelligent people will condemn you and the racists celebrate you.

    So it is all a matter of who you want to think what of you.

  8. Simon Katich says: Monday, March 12, 2018 at 5:24 pm

    Paper Chase PhRed?

    I seem to remember some in my family enjoyed that movie. The only TV I remember from the 70’s is Noni Hazelhurst.

    ***************************************

    ‘The Paper Chase’ is one of my all time favourite movies – and the subtlety of its message is still as true today – I see a lot of student James Hart in my life as a student and how in the end personal happiness of life is something you achieve irrespective of how many diplomas or degrees you have/don’t have ….

    ….. agreed 70’s Noni Hazelhurst was eye candy ……. and it was a must to watch ‘Play School’ with your kids !!!!!

  9. Offense is on the hearing side, not the speaking side.

    Indeed.

    Sometimes I regret the offence.

    But usually I welcome the offended party to it.

    Not every feeling of offence is reasonable. Some that are reasonable are no where near serious enough to warrant a change of language. And some of course are absolutely deliberate.

  10. Good afternoon all,

    Labor will be making a major policy announcement tomorrow.

    Shorten and Bowen will be front and centre.

    Cheers.

  11. zoidlord @ #2403 Monday, March 12th, 2018 – 5:28 pm

    @bemused
    I find offensive that you are using “tard”.

    Regardless of how it’s used!

    Tard is an insult to ones intelligence.

    And for a Labor person that you are would bring disaster to Labor if you bring down to the point of being that ‘low’ N.korea leader intelligence level with Donald Trump.

    People who are Disabled can take offense even if it’s not directed at them but refer to others intelligence.

    So Bemused I would limit you’re use of insults.

    Should I remove ‘leotard’ from my vocabulary? What about ‘dastard’? Or bastard?
    Where does it end?

  12. bemused @ #2399 Monday, March 12th, 2018 – 5:23 pm

    1892CFC @ #2330 Monday, March 12th, 2018 – 2:42 pm

    Hi All,
    Infrequent poster over the past 1o+ years. I definitely don’t mean this as a criticism – just a request.
    My daughter has taught special needs kids dance since she was 13. In the past I used to use the suffix “tard” as an insult. The first time she heard me use the term she took offence, and educated me that the use of “tard” as a suffix insult is really hurtful to friends and family of, and people who are, special needs.
    Again – not meant as a criticism to anyone, as I am definitely guilty of this in the past.

    I used it.
    the suffix -tard is not specific to the usage that bothers your daughter.
    I am indebted to Kim Jong Un for using the word ‘dotard’ referring to Donald Trump. This aroused my curiosity and I did a bit of research.

    Suffix. -tard. (slang) Used to form words conveying an attitude of contempt or doubt over the subject’s intelligence.
    -tard – Wiktionary
    https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/-tard

    See also this link for further information.
    https://www.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2012/03/28/etymology-of-the-day-march-of-the-tards

    It is a perfectly legitimate suffix for me to add to the word ‘Green’ to indicate my ‘attitude of contempt or doubt over the subject’s intelligence.’

    WeWantPaul @ #2371 Monday, March 12th, 2018 – 4:07 pm

    You clearly don’t know how meaning and language works bemused.

    You can clearly be offensive even if the 1712 meaning of the word wasn’t understood by anyone as offensive.

    Offense is on the hearing side, not the speaking side.

    So I am free to take offence at any word directed to me?

    No you dickhead.

  15. adrian @ #2412 Monday, March 12th, 2018 – 5:37 pm

    bemused @ #2399 Monday, March 12th, 2018 – 5:23 pm

    1892CFC @ #2330 Monday, March 12th, 2018 – 2:42 pm

    Hi All,
    Infrequent poster over the past 1o+ years. I definitely don’t mean this as a criticism – just a request.
    My daughter has taught special needs kids dance since she was 13. In the past I used to use the suffix “tard” as an insult. The first time she heard me use the term she took offence, and educated me that the use of “tard” as a suffix insult is really hurtful to friends and family of, and people who are, special needs.
    Again – not meant as a criticism to anyone, as I am definitely guilty of this in the past.

    I used it.
    the suffix -tard is not specific to the usage that bothers your daughter.
    I am indebted to Kim Jong Un for using the word ‘dotard’ referring to Donald Trump. This aroused my curiosity and I did a bit of research.

    Suffix. -tard. (slang) Used to form words conveying an attitude of contempt or doubt over the subject’s intelligence.
    -tard – Wiktionary
    https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/-tard

    See also this link for further information.
    https://www.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2012/03/28/etymology-of-the-day-march-of-the-tards

    It is a perfectly legitimate suffix for me to add to the word ‘Green’ to indicate my ‘attitude of contempt or doubt over the subject’s intelligence.’

    WeWantPaul @ #2371 Monday, March 12th, 2018 – 4:07 pm

    You clearly don’t know how meaning and language works bemused.

    You can clearly be offensive even if the 1712 meaning of the word wasn’t understood by anyone as offensive.

    Offense is on the hearing side, not the speaking side.

    So I am free to take offence at any word directed to me?

    No you dickhead.

    I never take offence at poor Adrian.
    Life is so miserable for him.

  19. Cameron says: Monday, March 12, 2018 at 5:40 pm

    Betsy DeVos is emblematic of the entire Trump regime: corrupt, ignorant, openly hostile to the mission of the agency she runs (and as a special bonus, a war criminal brother knee-deep in the Trump Russia scandal).

    ****************************************************

    and an apologetic repeat from the other day :

    Dr. Dena Grayson‏Verified account @DrDenaGrayson

    Erik Prince “just happens” to be the brother of Betsy Devos, whose husband “just happens” to be on the board of Spectrum Health, whose server “just happens” to have been connected to w/Trump Tower & #RussianAlfa Bank.

    Helluva “coincidence.”

  21. Who needs experts when you have PB’s resident experts in ignorance.

    Loss of biological diversity due to species extinctions is going to have major impacts on our planet, and we better prepare ourselves to deal with them,” said University of Michigan ecologist Bradley Cardinale, one of the authors. The study is scheduled for online publication in the journal Nature on May 2.

    “These extinctions may well rank as one of the top five drivers of global change,” said Cardinale, an assistant professor at the U-M School of Natural Resources and Environment and an assistant professor in the Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology.

  24. “Should I remove ‘leotard’ from my vocabulary? What about ‘dastard’? Or bastard?
    Where does it end?”

    You clearly aren’t good with language and meaning but are you really as bad as this post would suggest?

    So two questions:

    Do I bemused care that I’m offending a broad range of individuals.
    Do I bemused care that there are another group of individuals who consider this kind of behaviour poor form and who would think significantly less of me if I continued to do it after the offense caused was simply and clearly explained to me.

    If both answers are you don’t care, then you are fine, you and that other genius Trump who likewise doesn’t care can start a club.

  25. Barney in Go Dau @ #1277 Monday, March 12th, 2018 – 5:41 pm

    Jim Chalmers on the proposed company tax cuts.

    “We need to find a better way than Turnbull’s corporate tax cuts” Jim Chalmers

    There’s no guarantee the tax cuts will be invested onshore and trickle down to middle Australia

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/mar/12/we-need-to-find-a-better-way-than-turnbulls-corporate-tax-cuts

    It’s a good article, but I have trouble being convinced of its sincerity.

  27. A question for PBer tech-heads.

    I’m having a problem copying to my usb memory sticks.

    I can copy and paste folders no problem, everything is there, but when I change drives and then come back all my folders have changed to shortcut folders that lead nowhere.

    Any suggestions on how to fix this problem appreciated.

    Cheers!! 🙂

  28. WeWantPaul @ #2424 Monday, March 12th, 2018 – 5:52 pm

    “Should I remove ‘leotard’ from my vocabulary? What about ‘dastard’? Or bastard?
    Where does it end?”

    You clearly aren’t good with language and meaning but are you really as bad as this post would suggest?

    So two questions:

    Do I bemused care that I’m offending a broad range of individuals.
    Do I bemused care that there are another group of individuals who consider this kind of behaviour poor form and who would think significantly less of me if I continued to do it after the offense caused was simply and clearly explained to me.

    If both answers are you don’t care, then you are fine, you and that other genius Trump who likewise doesn’t care can start a club.

    I don’t mind offending Greens.

  29. This is a good one too from Mr Sausage:

    Me: Any news?

    Doctor: I’m just waiting for your x-ray.

    Me: But I’ve never dated anyone called Ray.

    Doctor: And we might do a brain scan

  30. Barney in Go Dau @ #2426 Monday, March 12th, 2018 – 5:55 pm

    A question for PBer tech-heads.

    I’m having a problem copying to my usb memory sticks.

    I can copy and paste folders no problem, everything is there, but when I change drives and then come back all my folders have changed to shortcut folders that lead nowhere.

    Any suggestions on how to fix this problem appreciated.

    Cheers!! 🙂

    Have you tried turning it off and on again?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nn2FB1P_Mn8

  32. This lady is right on top of her job. A lot like Ben Carson and Scott Pruitt.

    DeVos: ‘I don’t know’ if number of false rape accusations is the same as number of sexual assaults.

    Asked whether she was suggesting that the number of false accusations was as high as the number of actual rapes or assaults, DeVos said, “I don’t know.”

    http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/377854-devos-i-dont-know-if-number-of-false-rape-accusations-are-the-same-as

  34. Dee Madigan‏Verified account @deemadigan · 2h2 hours ago

    I support free speech but if anyone could find a way to remove the phrase ‘If I did offend people’ from the lexicon I’d buy them all the beer.

  37. rhwombat @ #2370 Monday, March 12th, 2018 – 2:53 pm

    Vogon Poet @ #2166 Monday, March 12th, 2018 – 3:16 pm

    We’ll all be rooned, said you know who:

    World health experts are warning of the existence of an illness, known only as ‘Disease X’, which has the potential to trigger a serious international epidemic.

    The World Health Organisation (WHO) has revealed details about ‘Disease X’ in its second annual review of priority diseases.

    The review, which was released overnight, lists the disease alongside Zika, Ebola, SARS and Lassa fever as the viruses with the potential to cause a public health emergency.

    https://www.9news.com.au/world/2018/03/12/14/20/disease-x-world-health-organisation-epidemic

    Fuck this as “reporting”. There is no Disease X , and there never will be. The term is a placeholder for exigency planning, not a pathogen. dtt can unknot her knickers, but those of us who work with real threats (like this season’s influenza, of which I’ve already seen a few cases) can now look forward to wasting more time placating the worried well.

    I agree RHW

    Mind you fairly silly way for WHO to report things..

    I am taking a look at their prioritization methodology. The list as reported seems a bit strange but maybe it will be clear based on the methodology.

  39. Barney,
    I suggest that you create new folders on your usb sticks, then go to your source folder, open it, click on a file,Ctrl a to highlight everything , then ctrl c to copy it all, then go to your usb folder, open it, and ctrl v to paste.

  43. Yabba88 @ #2439 Monday, March 12th, 2018 – 6:12 pm

    Barney,
    I suggest that you create new folders on your usb sticks, then go to your source folder, open it, click on a file,Ctrl a to highlight everything , then ctrl c to copy it all, then go to your usb folder, open it, and ctrl v to paste.

    I don’t understand what you mean by “when I change drives”.

    Please explain Barney.

  47. RHW

    Fairly unimpressed with the WHO methodology paper.

    Jargonese that told us only the obvious.

    Lots of jawing, but no analysis.

    After skimming it I am non eht wider about what factors they think are important, although they do exclude or reduce concern where tried and proven methods reduce spread. Perhaps surprisingly they include burial practices etc which while we now know are effective in limiting disease spread are still pretty new for many populations,

  48. All is not green in Turnbull’s valley. 😆

    THE “Adani curse” has hit Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull with a poll finding most of his constituents want a review of the Queensland coal mine.

    It has been a huge political problem for Opposition Leader Bill Shorten and now Mr Turnbull could be asked to explain himself.

    Mr Turnbull has consistently attacked Mr Shorten with the claim he is supporting the mine when in Queensland but opposing it when in the Melbourne seat of Batman which goes to a by-election on Saturday.

    It now has been revealed that two-thirds of voters in Mr Turnbull’s seat of Wentworth and 60 per cent in Brisbane want a review of the environmental approval given the project, according to a survey released today by the Australia Institute.

    http://www.news.com.au/national/politics/majority-of-queenslanders-want-a-review-on-adani-mine-approval-stats-show/news-story/71b1256f3180ccc62c605e342c8f5001

  50. GG, weren’t you recommending various ways of turning a pillow into a murder weapon, for use against Empathy, in the early hours of this morning?

    Now you’re recommending tag team politeness?

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