BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor

Very slight movement back to the Coalition on the latest poll aggregate this week, with a not-quite-so-bad Newspoll providing the only new numbers.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate is drifting back towards the Coalition as other pollsters fail to replicate their particularly bad result from ReachTEL a fortnight ago. There is no change on the seat projection, though this is due to the correction of an error that short-changed Labor two seats in Queensland last week. The is balanced by Coalition gains of one seat apiece in New South Wales and Victoria. Newspoll’s latest numbers have taken a big chunk out of Malcolm Turnbull’s readings on the leadership trends, while Bill Shorten holds even on net approval. Enjoy all the results in detail by clicking on the image below.

Note that there’s a post below this one on Newspoll’s latest state voting intention result from Victoria.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,643 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor”

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  1. imacca @ #2287 Monday, March 12th, 2018 – 1:07 pm

    ” report that his attitude was basically to leave the Liberation of Europe to the Russians.”

    Well there is a bit of revisionism? From my readings on it, there was a wide acknowledgement at the time that what the Russians could take they would hold. To the extent that some Germans surrendering in the north to the Brits were fed and not quite completely separated from their equipment straight away in case they were needed to fight Russians.

    That there is a lot of valid stuff that indicates Churchill was a prick and frankly not one of the worlds great strategic thinkers of the time is true, but i reckon there is probably a lot of bullshit out there as well.

    I have always thought his greatest attribute was his implacable opposition to the Nazis and Hitler when so many in the British Establishment wanted an accommodation with Hitler. And the way his defiance stiffened the resolve of the British people.

    There was an interesting little 8 part drama series on ABC TV a while back “The Halcyon” set in a posh hotel in London which portrayed some of the attitudes of the British upper class and their flirtation with the Nazis.

  2. Dan Gulberry @ #2292 Monday, March 12th, 2018 – 1:21 pm

    daretotread. @ #2285 Monday, March 12th, 2018 – 10:03 am

    Where did you get that photo. Scary! (unless photoshopped)

    It came up on my Twitter feed and I thought it was funny.

    The croc could be the victim of an encounter with a shark, a bigger croc, or as you said, it could be photoshopped. I posted it as light relief to counter a couple of grim days here on PB.

    EDIT: Or you could read boerwar’s post below this one which provides a far more likely explanation.

    It is also difficult to determine just how big that croc was. It may not have been particularly large.

  3. “I have always thought his greatest attribute was his implacable opposition to the Nazis and Hitler when so many in the British Establishment wanted an accommodation with Hitler. ”

    Agreed. A prick, but a uniquely useful prick at the time and in the circumstances. Him getting dumped as PM at the end of the war probably shows that the British people had cottoned on to that. 🙂

  4. P1

    I am very aware of all the arguments. I used to believe most of the points you make. I don’t anymore.

    1. As noted above farming relies less and less on biodiversity. In fact never in the history of the world has so much high quality food been produced by extremely low biodiversity farming systems.

    2. These systems do depend on certain conditions being maintained. The first is genetic diversity of crop plants. While decreases in wild genetic diversity have to be offset with gene storage systems, GMO technologies totally alter the diversity equation. It will not be long before systematic improvements in food crops for straight nutrition (higher available proteins, for example) move to systematic improvements in health components as well.

    3. In all current systems of food production the balance between wild caught and wild grown food and low-biodversity production agriculture has been shifting at (geologically) astronomic rates. Existing technical limits have never been less constraining. The prospect for further technical advances are virtually limitless.

    4. Using the Irish blight as an example of what might go wrong is a bit of a spud murphy furphy. These days the blight would have been sprayed out of existence long before it caused a million deaths.

  6. ‘imacca says:
    Monday, March 12, 2018 at 1:27 pm

    “there are no hard and fast reasons why this trend should not increase.”

    One episode of serious disease in zero diversity food crops will be reason enough. ‘

    Serious disease in all food production systems is the norm, not the exception. What has changed is our technical ability to respond effectively.

  7. imacca @ #2294 Monday, March 12th, 2018 – 1:25 pm

    “Apparently getting him to commit to D Day was a major effort – he was all for more delay.”

    Marshal (someone who seems to have been one of the great strategic thinkers of the time) apparently initially wanted overlord for mid 43. Churchill advocated for Husky (invasion of Italy) instead. There is debate on the merits of that, but looking at the American performance during Torch (not the best) there is a body of opinion that i agree with that the Allies were simply not up to Overlord at the time and if it had happened in 43 there is a strong likely hood Overlord would have failed. Even in 44 it was a very high risk operation, particularly in terms of follow up logistic support.

    One of the problems the Americans had, well into 44-45 was lack of combat experience of their troops and commanders. Their massive ability to do logistics and supply buffered them to some extent, but they had issues right up to the end of the war.

    The Brits had other issues as well. An Army that though in a lot of cases WAS combat experienced, but also combat fatigued, and equipment wise it was only right at the end of the war they caught up qualitatively. Particularly on terms of armor. By mid 45 they had a couple of the best, balanced capability tanks of the time (Comet, and Centurion ) coming into service, but not in anything like the numbers needed if they had needed to take on daS Ruskis.

    You can level a lot of valid criticism at Churchill, but delaying Overlord till 44 is a very dubious one.

    Delaying until 1943 also gave the Germans more time to prepare the Atlantic wall, making it a harder target.
    The invasion of Europe was all about logistics.
    Could the allies land men and equipment and supply them at a greater rate than the Germans could bring up reinforcements?
    An excellent book on the topic is “The Struggle For Europe” by Chester Wilmot, an Australian journalist. Written a long time ago now, first published in 1952, but has stood the test of time.

    Amazon Review.

    Chester Wilmot’s The Struggle for Europe is the most highly regarded single-volume history of the Second World War in Europe. First published in 1952, the book has the advantage of the author’s extensive interviews with participants from all sides of the conflict, when recollections of the war were still painfully fresh. The pattern of post-war Europe, he maintains, was determined during the fighting; he sees the shaping events through a study of wartime diplomacy and strategy and of the impact on wartime policies of the personalities of the statesmen and generals with whom the decisions lay. Throughout Wilmot hews to one guiding principle: To concern ourselves solely with the course of military events would be to tell only half the story and to see only half its significance. It is the political outcome that counts, and in this book the two are closely related at every stage

  8. Player One @ #2296 Monday, March 12th, 2018 – 1:26 pm

    Boerwar @ #2290 Monday, March 12th, 2018 – 1:12 pm

    p1

    I believe that humanity can survive quite handily without most of the world’s biodiversity.

    The bulk of the world’s food commodities come from close to zero biodiversity farming and, while there are areas of uncertainty and contestability, there are no hard and fast reasons why this trend should not increase.

    Indeed the big bet is that this trend of zero biodiversity farming will increase because, with global warming, it will have to increase.

    I have read this over several times, and I am more aghast each time.

    First, I suggest you read the following:

    https://science.howstuffworks.com/environmental/conservation/issues/biodiversity-important.htm

    Then, for a practical example of what can happen when things go wrong, see:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Famine_(Ireland)

    Ignorant comment of the month, and leading contender for stupidest comment of the year.

    No wonder you are aghast, P1.

  9. bemused

    I have always thought his greatest attribute was his implacable opposition to the Nazis and Hitler when so many in the British Establishment wanted an accommodation with Hitler. And the way his defiance stiffened the resolve of the British people.

    I’m glad that someone understands that. As a child, living in Plymouth, terrified of the bombers overhead, the warning sirens and the bombs falling, hearing Big Ben striking and then Churchill on the 9 o’oclock news was one of the few stable things in a terrifying world.

    (Sometimes I feel such a stranger on PB, with the constant put-downs of ‘whiteys’ and poms.)

  11. Hi Player One, do you have a link to analysis that shows the implied 2050 population targets of LNP policies, of Labor policies, and of Greens policies? I remember you posting something about that in a previous thread.

  13. Was going to post the link from The Conversation as well P1, but noticed you had already done so.

    However, what do scientists from the CSIRO know compared to PB’s resident seer and Green Party obsessive, BW?

  14. Boerwar @ #2304 Monday, March 12th, 2018 – 1:40 pm

    I am very aware of all the arguments. I used to believe most of the points you make. I don’t anymore.

    Fortunately for the rest of us, your belief or disbelief does not matter. I provided the links for your own edification, not because I think your arguments are worth refuting.

    The scientific consensus is that the loss of biodiversity we are currently experiencing is potentially as dangerous as global warming – we should certainly not be working to exacerbate it.

    In fact, biodiversity loss is possibly worse than global warming because there is a chance that with sufficient biodiversity something might survive should warming reach extreme levels. Without such biodiversity, Earth could end up populated by nothing much more advanced that bacteria.

  15. lizzie @ #2309 Monday, March 12th, 2018 – 1:50 pm

    bemused

    I have always thought his greatest attribute was his implacable opposition to the Nazis and Hitler when so many in the British Establishment wanted an accommodation with Hitler. And the way his defiance stiffened the resolve of the British people.

    I’m glad that someone understands that. As a child, living in Plymouth, terrified of the bombers overhead, the warning sirens and the bombs falling, hearing Big Ben striking and then Churchill on the 9 o’oclock news was one of the few stable things in a terrifying world.

    (Sometimes I feel such a stranger on PB, with the constant put-downs of ‘whiteys’ and poms.)

    Yes, a few Anglophobes here.
    You couldn’t get much further politically from Churchill than my father, but he always acknowledged Churchill’s importance.
    You must be a bit older than I had previously thought if you went through WWII as a child.
    I was born post WWII so can’t match your personal memories. I only have the experiences and memories passed on to me by my father and, to a lesser extent, my mother.
    Plus a lot of reading inspired by what I heard from them.

  17. Mungo explains the Trump tariff exemption and Turnbull’s latest good Government starts now announcement.

    So yet again we are searching for a reset, a circuit-breaker, just something that works. But it looks as if we are facing more of the same: brutal and ruthless personal attacks on Bill Shorten, now extending to his family, staff and acquaintances, and more innumerate waffle about the wonder and beauty of corporate tax cuts.

    Repeated experiments have shown that the voters are not impressed; they would probably prefer a few more verses of The Ballad Of Bonking Barnaby, as this endless soapie meanders into ever more bizarre trails. And the commentariat apparently believes that the answer is more conservative (meaning, in many cases, reactionary) ideology, a conclave of philosopher kings (themselves, naturally) to revive the heart and soul of what they laughingly call the centre-right – the time when the coalition ruled unchallenged and the voters knew their place.

    https://www.echo.net.au/2018/03/thus-spake-mungo-turnbull-turns-trick-trumps-tariffs/#.WqXoKI0H4yc.twitter

  18. Boerwar @ #2306 Monday, March 12th, 2018 – 1:42 pm

    Serious disease in all food production systems is the norm, not the exception. What has changed is our technical ability to respond effectively.

    Yes, because of massive overuse of antibiotics in food production, which couldn’t possibly be bad for anyone … oh, wait … http://fortune.com/2017/11/09/antibiotic-resistance-superbugs/

    Luckily, reducing biodiversity couldn’t possibly affect the development of new antibiotics … oh, wait … https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Production_of_antibiotics

  19. lizzie says: Monday, March 12, 2018 at 1:50 pm

    bemused

    I’m glad that someone understands that. As a child, living in Plymouth, terrified of the bombers overhead, the warning sirens and the bombs falling, hearing Big Ben striking and then Churchill on the 9 o’oclock news was one of the few stable things in a terrifying world.

    *******************************************************

    My mum, who lived through the blitz like you Lizzie, said the same thing – I remember her words – ” he may well have been a drunken old hound but his speeches gave us hope when all seemed lost ” …… and indeed after the loss of soldiers and vast amounts of equipment at Dunkirk all that stood against Hitler were Churchill’s oratory and a small band of brave pilots and 2 incredible aeroplanes in the Hurricane and the Spitfire and a chain home radar system that gave them advance warnings enough to get them into the air in time.

    I am sure Churchill had many faults and did many unconshionable things before and during WW2 for which he has been judged accordingly ….. but he did help prevent Hitler taking over Europe when it mattered

  20. Nicholas @ #2311 Monday, March 12th, 2018 – 1:51 pm

    Hi Player One, do you have a link to analysis that shows the implied 2050 population targets of LNP policies, of Labor policies, and of Greens policies? I remember you posting something about that in a previous thread.

    Yes, I did. From memory, the result was something like this:

    Science Party: 45 million.
    LNP: 40-45 million
    Greens: 35-40 million
    Labor 30-35 million
    Sustainable Australia: 26-30 million

    I’ll have to try and find the post again to get all the source links from which I derived the numbers.

  21. bemused

    I was born during the war, so I can’t say I remember all of it, but there is a photo of me as a toddler standing beside an air raid shelter in the garden, and I remember hiding with my grandmother in a cupboard under the stairs at the time when a bomb fell next door. I was traumatised enough by the bombers that I was 30 years old before I could remain calm when a plane flew directly overhead, as I always waited for the crash as it fell out of the sky (and I was in Australia by then!)

  22. What is that? Is Turnbull taking all the credit for the tariff exemption?

    Did he mention anything about the decades of obsequiousness often soaked in blood? I am sure he did. Not even Turnbull can be that full of himself.

  25. It seems that the Herald Sun and VicLib don’t like firefighters standing up for their own safety. There has been a running narrative by EBA in rebuttal of the H-Sun’s attacks, which also affected the results of the last election.

    :large

    EBA Truth‏ @ebatruth

    Dear @SHendersonMP, why do you hate us? How dare you use a pic of fireys about to enter a 300+ degree toxic atmosphere & perhaps rescue someone or find someone who has perished in fire, to attack us? How dare you accuse us of unlawfulness, given my next tweet? #springst #auspol

    James Dunstan‏ @snowycats · 5h5 hours ago

    Replying to @ebatruth @SHendersonMP

    Ms Henderson has displayed extreme bias in that comment – clearly under instructions – not slightest sense of understanding of the issues – playing on fear – a toxic comment by her

  26. Crikey:
    Dutton and Hunt? Heaven forbid.

    It was less than a year ago that Bishop was widely seen as the only person in parliament capable of taking the reins from Malcolm Turnbull as Prime Minister amid open criticism of him from within the Liberal Party.

    Now the talk in Liberal Party circles is of Bishop being “retired” after the next election, perhaps to make way for Mathias Cormann, the government’s most consistently good performer, and moving to the lower house. Whether that’s possible or not, it’s certainly true that she has been frozen out of the PM’s inner circle.

    …
    Bishop meanwhile, will be playing second fiddle, as Turnbull plays host to a group of nations among which there is now only one properly functioning democracy, Indonesia. The rest are mainly one-party states at various levels of repression.

    Sure, Bishop will be there, smiling for the cameras, but her jaw may be clenched tighter than usual, knowing that her chance to lead her nation has passed her by. Unless Turnbull can pull off an unlikely victory next year, the Liberals, as it stands now, will be led by a combination of Peter Dutton and cabinet’s quiet achiever Greg Hunt.

  27. So Turnbull is siding with Trump on tariffs in opposition to Europe (and China?). This could backfire badly on ‘He of no Judgement”.

  28. lizzie @ #2321 Monday, March 12th, 2018 – 2:16 pm

    bemused

    I was born during the war, so I can’t say I remember all of it, but there is a photo of me as a toddler standing beside an air raid shelter in the garden, and I remember hiding with my grandmother in a cupboard under the stairs at the time when a bomb fell next door. I was traumatised enough by the bombers that I was 30 years old before I could remain calm when a plane flew directly overhead, as I always waited for the crash as it fell out of the sky (and I was in Australia by then!)

    The southern part of Australia was spared direct experience of the war apart from the Jap midget subs in Sydney Harbour and a few shells fired from the deck gun of a Jap sub into the Eastern Suburbs. There were also quite a few ships sunk all around the coast of Australia by subs.
    The only casualty in the extended family was an uncle of my mother who was accidentally killed by friendly fire in the round-up of the Japanese escapees from Cowra.
    Father served in the RAAF and an uncle in the RAN.

  29. Unless Turnbull can pull off an unlikely victory next year, the Liberals, as it stands now, will be led by a combination of Peter Dutton and cabinet’s quiet achiever Greg Hunt.

    Who wrote that shit?

    ‘Quiet achiever’ indeed. A nice little CPG beloved cliche which means nothing more than that the person in question is a LNP minister and has done SFA but avoided any major controversy.

    If it was an ALP minister the word used would most likely be failure.

  30. Hi All,
    Infrequent poster over the past 1o+ years. I definitely don’t mean this as a criticism – just a request.
    My daughter has taught special needs kids dance since she was 13. In the past I used to use the suffix “tard” as an insult. The first time she heard me use the term she took offence, and educated me that the use of “tard” as a suffix insult is really hurtful to friends and family of, and people who are, special needs.
    Again – not meant as a criticism to anyone, as I am definitely guilty of this in the past.

  31. Whinge whinge whinge…

    Feathers dropped over this year’s Womadelaide crowd, along with dust and pollen in Adelaide’s Botanic Park, have caused grief for asthma sufferers, who have complained of watery eyes and wheezing.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-03-12/womadelaide-asthma-warning-feathers-dust-pollen/9538228

    Any asthmatic going to an outdoor festival in the dry months should be fully aware to be uptodate with their preventer medication, bring their emergency medication and take antihistamines before they come.

    By far the worst culprit in Botanic Park is the plane trees. Dont blame it on the feathers/good times/boogie.

  33. Greensborough Growler @ #2323 Monday, March 12th, 2018 – 2:24 pm

    Good overview of the progress China is making in reducing emissions.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-china-pollution/

    Hmmm. China’s emissions have stabilized at merely twice those of the next highest emitter (the US), and only five times as much as the next highest (India). I guess that is progress of a sort – it is certainly much better than our own laughably feeble efforts 🙁

    Note: If anyone thinks it is a mere coincidence that China’s LNG imports have risen to record levels at the same time, I would point out that this now makes four of the world’s biggest economies economies – US, UK, Germany, China – who have successfully used LNG as a transition fuel. Only Australia seems to be stupid enough to continue to burn coal instead** 🙁

    ** Oh, and Germany – they used LNG to transition from nuclear to coal. Because Greens prefer coal to nuclear. I am not sure if that means they are stupider than we are or not.

  34. SK, I know when I have driven past a plane tree, my throat starts to constrict. They should be outlawed as they are a public menace.

  35. adrian

    It was Michael Sainsbury
    “Freelance correspondent in Asia and Little Red Blog Editor ”

    Calling Greg Hunt “quiet achiever” is, to my mind, glossing over his sneaky, almost treasonous behaviour wrt Climate change, when he invented “Direct Action” (in a weekend) in order to gain himself a Ministry with Abbott.

  36. PeeBee
    Indeed. They look good for about 1 month in the year. The rest of the time they clog the drains, constrict the throat or look just plain ratty.

    Not that I am the whinging type 😉

  38. Is that Nicholas and bakunin behind Bhathal and Di Natale?

    Children of the revolution?

    But I am all for it. What I really want to know where RDN got his jacket/shirt combo from? Most dashing.

  40. The Australian National Audit Office (ANAO) is currently undertaking three separate audits into the integration of the immigration department and customs, the efficiency of visa processing and personnel security risks.

    It is currently considering an additional six audits into staff integrity measures, payment standards, cape class patron vessel support, intelligence operations, collection of visa revenue and the tourist refund scheme.

    Previous ANAO reports have scrutinised the immigration department’s detention contracting arrangements and found them to have serious flaws. One review into contracting on Nauru and Manus found it spent more than $1 billion without proper approvals, and another found it failed to oversee healthcare arrangements in onshore detention centres.

    Shadow immigration minister Shayne Neumann told BuzzFeed News: “Peter Dutton may have a new job title but it doesn’t detract from the string of scathing reports into the management of his department.

    “This includes two ANAO reports into garrison support and welfare services on Manus and Nauru, two Commonwealth Ombudsman reports about the management and documentation of people held in detention and an ANAO Cybersecurity follow-up audit.

    “Australia cannot afford for the systemic failures detailed in these reports to continue under tick-and-flick minister Dutton’s newly-minted Department of Home Affairs.”

    Staff within the super agency remain frustrated about the new arrangements.

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/paulfarrell/peter-duttons-new-super-department-is-facing-unprecedented?utm_term=.nmmwp5Q91#.sdrekEQVd

  42. Science Party: 45 million.
    LNP: 40-45 million
    Greens: 35-40 million
    Labor 30-35 million
    Sustainable Australia: 26-30 million

    Thanks Player One. It is interesting that the Science Party’s policies would result in the highest population by 2050 (45 million). You’d think that a science-based party would be highly conscious of ecological constraints. Also interesting that Greens policies would lead to a higher population (35-40 million) than Labor’s (30-35 million).

    The Sustainable Population Australia website says:

    If current growth continues, Australia will exceed 40 million by 2050 and 100 million before 2100.

    https://population.org.au/about-population/australias-population

    That suggests that Labor’s policy is to change the existing policy settings (related to the net overseas migration level and the domestic fertility rate) to bring about a 2050 population that is lower than 40 million. And that Greens policy is to keep existing policy settings in place and stay on course for 40 million by 2050. And LNP policy is to change the policy settings to bring about a population that is higher than 40 million.

    Greens: status quo (stay on track for 40 million by 2050)
    Labor: change (downwards a bit)
    LNP: change (upwards a bit)
    Science Party: change (upwards a bit)
    Sustainable Australia Party: change (downwards a lot)

    Is that correct?

  43. lizzie @ #2335 Monday, March 12th, 2018 – 2:45 pm

    adrian

    It was Michael Sainsbury
    “Freelance correspondent in Asia and Little Red Blog Editor ”

    Calling Greg Hunt “quiet achiever” is, to my mind, glossing over his sneaky, almost treasonous behaviour wrt Climate change, when he invented “Direct Action” (in a weekend) in order to gain himself a Ministry with Abbott.

    Yes, lizzie.

    IMHO Crikey seems to be doing less and less to distinguish itself from the rest of the CPG herd.

    Not a great business model I would have thought, but what do I know.

  45. Trump privately trashes Rick Saccone

    There’s a reason Trump said hardly anything about Republican candidate Rick Saccone during a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday night that was supposed to promote his candidacy.

    •The reason: Trump thinks Saccone is a terrible, “weak” candidate, according to four sources who’ve spoken to the president about him.

    March 13 special election

    https://www.axios.com/scoop-trump-privately-trashes-rick-saccone-1520806446-c7033bad-f7a4-4d92-80a7-40113967a0e2.html

  46. lizzie

    ….his sneaky, almost treasonous behaviour wrt Climate change, when he invented “Direct Action”

    Sadly that effort by Kermit the Quiet Little Achiever is classed by the Coalition as a real ‘achievement’ and worthy of praise. Especially from the party donor spivs who rorted the scheme.

  48. Fact-checking Trump’s approval ratings tweet

    President Trump tweeted that media reports that his approval ratings are lower than those of President Obama are “fake news.” Here are the facts:

    Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump

    Rasmussen and others have my approval ratings at around 50%, which is higher than Obama, and yet the political pundits love saying my approval ratings are “somewhat low.” They know they are lying when they say it. Turn off the show – FAKE NEWS!

    RealClearPolitics’ polling average places Trump’s approval at 40.9%, significantly lower than Obama’s approval (48.5%) at the same time during his presidency.

    •Rasmussen Reports’ latest numbers, from Friday, put Trump’s approval rating at 44% — not “around 50%.”

    https://www.axios.com/fact-checking-trump-tweet-about-job-approval-ratings-1520783874-4ef47401-e44a-43d2-9978-558a72b24ebb.html

  49. GRundle in Crikey saying Alex Bhathal isn’t a bully, just ‘forthright’ in telling you when you’re wrong and she is right!

    Then he puts a disclaimer at the end of his piece saying he shared a house with her for 3 years in the 80s!

    No wonder he is such a stout defender/apologist for The Greens.

  50. Nicholas @ #2342 Monday, March 12th, 2018 – 3:02 pm

    Is that correct?

    Sounds about right. The Science Party (!) and Sustainable Australia have specific target numbers, but the others don’t, so you have to try and assess the impact of the parties policies on our current immigration and birth rates. I assumed the LNP would keep migration at its current record highs, the Greens would lower the skilled migration rate but increase the refugee intake, and Labor would lower both. This was based on my interpretation of their actual policies. The LNP also has policies designed to increase local fertility, but these have only a very modest effect – by far the largest growth is from our overseas intake in all cases.

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