The Australian has a Newspoll result of state voting intention in New South Wales, the first such poll in a year, and it’s the first since 2008 which doesn’t credit the Coalition with a two-party lead. The Coalition is on 38% of the primary vote, down from 40% a year ago and 45.6% at the 2015 election, while Labor is on 34%, unchanged on both last year’s poll and the 2015 result (which was 34.1%, to be precise). Gladys Berejiklian still has favourable personal ratings, with 45% approval and 35% disapproval. This compares with 44% and 21% at the poll conducted a year ago, which was shortly after Berejiklian became leader. Luke Foley is on 37% approval and 35% disapproval, compared with 32% and 36% last year. Berejiklian leads 43-25 as preferred premier, down from 43-21 a year ago. The poll is tagged as “February-March 2018”, but was obviously conducted mostly in February, from a sample of 1526.
Until recently the trains in Sydney have been mostly running on time. Lately the network has been pretty chaotic. That would go down badly in the commuter belt and could be reflected in this poll. Many are also unimpressed with the decision to tear down and rebuild 20 year old sporting venues at a cost of billions. Then we have the perenniel issue of hospital waiting lists. Then there would be blowback from Barnabygate.
And, of course, memories of Eddie Obeid and Co are fading. The Coalition can’t use him to scare the punters forever.
And, let’s face it, Gladys comes across as a well-meaning (which she ain’t) dill. A very underpowered leader. Labor must be very confident right now.
The Stadium nonsense will have hurt a bit, but Labor is still hamstrung by the last government.
50-50 would probably still have the Coalition comfortably returned. OPV won’t make a win from 34% PV likely even if the Coalition can’t crack 40% very likely.
The Coalition will be delighted with this result. It wions comfortably on a 50./50 split – the fact it is likely to win 2 seats off Inds makes ALP task well nigh impossible. But ALP close enough to keep Foley on as leader – a perfect stormn for Gladys and her team.
On the face of it, a poll like this should make a 7-year-old government a bit nervous, but as Ratsak rightly points out, a PV of 34% is going to make life hard for Labor in an OPV system, and the anonymous nature of the Opposition leader (and I’ve met Luke a couple of times, and he’s actually a pretty nice guy) doesn’t help. My gut feeling a year out is that the government will be returned with a very slim majority.
But one thing that non-NSW people might not appreciate is that NSW is seemingly demographically designed to return Labor governments (since 1941, Labor has been in power in Macquarie Street for a total of 52 years). The ALP benefits from a bit chuck of safe (aside from 2011-style landslides) seats in Newcastle, Wollongong and south-west Sydney, which gives the party a base of the mid-30s. They only need 45 seats to govern, and with the federal government on the nose in the outer suburbs, picking up those remaining seats is not out of the question.
Currently Sydney is basically one big building site, with West Connex, North Connex, the SE Light Rail, and the NW Heavy Rail, which is leading to predictable whinging from people a bit fed up with it all. This might also play into Labor’s hands next year.
Genuine question – I’m always cautious of changing leaders so this is just curiosity, but Luke Foley is uninspiring and doesn’t come across as overly progressive. Are there any genuine exciting alternatives I should be keeping my eye on in the NSW Labor ranks?
Eddie shoulda called what he did privatisation and he’d be apples right now.
Foley won’t see Christmas. Chris Minns will be installed and will go close to winning if not win in March.
Just wondering if there are a few Eddie Obeid types in the LNP ranks. Past history of LNP Governments says ‘yes’ but they probably wont appear till after the Government changes hands; whenever that is.
This will definitely lift our wonderful worldwide reputation for human rights:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/mar/06/australia-to-train-myanmar-military-despite-ethnic-cleansing-accusations
Stve
just as the Federal Tories still raise the ghost of Whitlam, the Obdeid scare still has a few decades to run yet.
Chris Minns… nup.
Foley is doing good enough, and I feel it’s good tactics. No point coming across as a screaming maniac over every issue at this point in the cycle.
Sure, politically unengaged people that I know complain that he’s not doing enough – but they use his actual name when doing so. That’s a Win.
Also watch for Jihad Dib and Jodi McKay.
Jihad is *very* strong and is all over the education portfolio. Jodi may not be as strong on transport portfolio matters, but she has a good media profile and strong personal presence. Every Labor statement that compares Berejiklian’s stadiums policy to education and transport issues highlight Dib and McKay’s strengths. It’s a sad fact, but if Jihad had a different name, I’d be tipping him as a future leader.
OTOH, Walt Secord is not punching at his weight in health, imho.
it would be impossible for walt to punch at his full weight….
As long as Foley and co keep their noses clean and stay on message Labor should win the next election. The blowback from the stadiums fiasco, lead by Peter FitzSimons of all people is biting hard. As is the fiasco that public transport, especially trains have become. It’s becoming a massive issue in the western suburbs of Sydney.
Gladys is coming across more and more as a bit of a snake, people are starting to lose a little faith in her as time goes by.
As for the Obeid factor, it’s diminishing and besides the Tories have their own issues there too.
With respect Henry that is rubbish. This govt has built/ is building:
1. CBD Light rail
2. North west rail
3. Completed south west
4. Expanded M5
5. Is Building west connex
6. Is building North Connex
7. Is building Northern beaches tunnel
8. Has built light rail in Newcastle –
The above is just a high level starting point for major projects – both road and public transport. If ALP was so palpably better at service delivery, why were none of these things built in 16 years (yep that’s right) of govt. The only public transport contribution from KK was her $600million damages bill the taxpayers wore for Sydney Metro (remember that).
As for corruption, the last time I checked the ALP is the only party that can make quorum by holding a branch meeting in Long Bay…..
Luke Foley needs to stop the “pollie speak” when doing doorstop interviews.He doesn’t come across as genuine,just scripted.
I am not the only one who thinks this. At this point in time I’d rather vote independent than for him as the leader. I do not trust him.
LU not logged in @ #11 Tuesday, March 6th, 2018 – 11:00 am
Jihad should change his name to, say, Dustin or Cayden, which mean very much the same thing.
Moderate, alot of those projects aren’t vote winners. The northern beaches tunnel has been government policy for so long that the land reserves at Seaforth set aside >50 years ago for a tunnel entrance have already been sold off as housing. Like the stadiums, the Chatswood-Epping rail connection was built so recently and people are furious the line will be closed for several months to deliver dubious benefits. And even once construction is completed, the CBD light rail not extending all the way to Railway Square/USyd is going to make it a time loser for most people outside the east. None of the other projects in that list seem any less free from controversy.
The LNP should be returned from an election held today but who knows how much further the 50-50 could slip with another year of stuff ups and backflips…
8. Has built light rail in Newcastle –
After tearing up a perfectly good several kilometres of heavy rail and three stations, including one in the Newcastle CBD, connected to Sydney and the rest of the NSW rail system, so that spiv mates could ‘develop’ freed up riverside land.
I’m going to agree with Steve777 on No. 8. When the heavy rail was ripped out, they hadn’t even worked out what was going to replace it. “Something” was the only answer to the question.
Moderate – 2 Lib gains from Inds? From where? There are only two independents, Alex Greenwich in Sydney and Greg Piper in Lake Macquarie. Greenwich looks pretty safe and LM is not a winnable seat for the Coalition. Unless you mean Orange and maybe Ballina? Both look possible (Orange more likely than Ballina I would think) but far from guaranteed at this stage.
It’s becoming a massive issue in the western suburbs of Sydney.
Which concerns Gladys why?
Yeah give Labor East Hills, and maybe even Oatley, Penrith and Holsworthy (maybe on a really good day).
Nothing in these numbers is saying seats like Seven Hills or Parramatta are in the game.
Even if they also lost say Coogee and Upper Hunter the Coalition has a workable majority.
Monaro? Possible, but Barilaro got a second swing against Whan. I doubt Steve will be running yet again and Barilaro is now the Deputy Premier so Yeah Nah.
CSG isn’t the hot button issue it was in 2015 so you wouldn’t expect the Nats to lose Lismore and Tweed, and they may even be a chance to nip Ballina back. Goward in Goulburn isn’t likely to ever come closer than her 6.6% margin to losing again.
The pendulum just doesn’t have many seats with a realistic shot. Even to grab those 4 Western Sydney seats you’re talking about a 7% swing in Penrith and along the George’s River.
If Labor was building it’s PV then yeah you’d start to get interested, and a year is a long time. But at this stage this looks like a government that’s had a few knocks, but isn’t really in mortal danger.
The northern beaches tunnel has been government policy for so long that the land reserves at Seaforth set aside >50 years ago for a tunnel entrance have already been sold off as housing. Like the stadiums, the Chatswood-Epping rail connection was built so recently and people are furious the line will be closed for several months to deliver dubious benefits.
The Libs could knock down 20 000 houses for the Northern Beaches tunnel and close the Epping-Chatswood line permanently and it wouldn’t increase their risk of losing any of the seats affected from 0. At the very very very worst if they decided to also spray agent orange over the entire insular peninsula they’d have to deal with an independent or two that would support them in government. None of these things add up to a cent’s worth of benefit to Labor.
The light rail might be enough to get Coogee back but even with just the age of the government Labor should be throwing everything at getting that back.
Labor with do really well if it can pick up 4-6 seats and knock the margins in seats like Heathcote, Seven Hills, Mulgoa, Ryde and Parramatta down to realistic targets for 2023 as well as positioning a few regionals like Kiama, Terrigal and going hard for Liar McLiarface in Bega.
Forcing Gladys to just barely hang on but still be able to govern (a less egregiously incompetent version of the Trumble clownshow) won’t be much to celebrate for Labor, but when you’re coming off the sort of corruption they are and not being able to budge your PV over 34% then it would be a very creditable result.
More than that would be a remarkable result unless something really changes drastically.
You are right of course Ratsak but it only goes to show that Moderate’s inflated list of planned/unfinished infrastructure projects alone wouldn’t buffer against a swing. Time will tell whether anything changes drastically, a year is still a long time…
“8. Has built light rail in Newcastle –”
I remember a few weeks ago Foley attended a community forum that was packed to the brim with thousands of angry Newcastle residents. Apparently privatized bus services are in shambles.
“Foley won’t see Christmas”…. Didn’t you say something similar about Shorten?
It’s just the traditional One, Two… OUT! In NSW. The Libs have already got their One, Two… and now they are heading for the OUT!
Henry,
I agree, the Libs are going down. They have shown themselves to be the usual Neoliberal gang, whereas Labor has distanced itself from Neoliberalism with the Social Democrat Foley…
There is a choice now in NSW…. as there is a clear choice also Federally.
@moderate
So NSW LNP is just building roads like they always are?
Labor should frame them out of touch.
They build roads so they:
1. Their tax thieving mates get the jobs.
2. Toll roads-toll roads!
The next obvious timebomb is the overdue stadiums backflip and how that’s handled. If they don’t knock down Olympic Park or take a controversial new policy to the election (like electricity privatisation) then they’d probably be favourites to skate through, provided we already had our chance to whack Turnbull out of office. That’s a big assumption though after amalgamations, greyhounds, stadiums, etc.
Labor really shouldn’t be too adventurous on campaigning against transport projects at a time of record investment. I have an interest in transport and the current strategy is very disruptive but is about 1-2 years away from starting to deliver real capacity improvements.
My advice in the transport space would be:
– Don’t sell WestConnex – keep it as a public asset
– Fix the bus network without contracting to private operators by offering above average pay rises to the RTBU in exchange for reforms such as allowing all door boarding
– Select projects that are in the 2056 master plan and bring them forward, such as extending the new proposed North-South line announced to the airport down to Macarthur earlier than the Libs, or the new Parramatta to Epping and Parramatta to Kogarah Metro lines
– Cancel some of the roads in the east that haven’t started if contracts haven’t been signed, such as F6 and Beaches Link
– Promise to spend the proceeds of the Snowy Hydro sale to the feds on higher-speed trains to Wollongong and Newcastle/Central Coast
– Sydney Metro and Sydney Light Rail back in public operations at end of the current concession periods
Basically, just redirect investment back to the heartland by changing the priority of projects rather than new project from left field – that way a new Labor government can avoid commitments for projects that were conceived on the back of an envelope.
This is all also more positive message than trying to capitalise on negative perception created by construction that will disappear when projects open.
There are also so many more areas to focus on against this government:
– Promise a true restoration of TAFE at the centre of vocational education
– Continued investment in Education and Health
– Reforms aimed at bringing back Sydney’s live music scene and nightlife – a sleep issue for young people who see the current government as very ‘Nanny state’
– Something left field and transformational like public run and funded pre-K education for all kids in public schools for 1 or 2 years to start
I see a bit of the above at the moment but not much and there could be such a good message to sell. Stamp duty and land tax reform could be a great way to help fund this stuff, but is probably too hard politically from opposition.
The major problem for this dire government in NSW is over-development in Sydney, lack of infrastructure to cope with the surging population and the total inadequacy of existing infrastructure plans such as WestConnex.
The government has developed a well deserved reputation for ignoring community concerns and governing in secret for their wealthy mates in the construction and development industry. Which is why at every opportunity Berejiklian repeats the blatant lie that they listen to community concerns.
The thing is, it is easy to say these things when everything is under construction. When the projects open, the perspective might be different.
I’m from the generation that is renting and would be happy to purchase an apartment and thinks we need infrastructure investment and additional apartment development to help make it affordable. I have no time for anti-development sentiment as it directly goes against me being able to own a home, and I’m not alone in my generation.
We need to support development and infrastructure if working people and young people are even going to afford a home.
The way to make it Labor development is to back it up with social and transport infrastructure – Schools, hospitals, parks. Quality could also be improved by somehow moving focus away from investors which will buy shoeboxes and more focus on owner occupiers (I’m looking at you federal Labor and negative gearing, capital gains tax reform) but more could be done at a NSW planning system level too.
Jim: Public pre-K education wouldn’t be particularly “left field”, the ACT has had public pre-schools for a very long time. It would certainly be a good move for NSW.
Left field only in that nobody is currently talking about it.
If a week in politics is a long time, the Berejiklian government will be nervous. She will have to wait until Fizza makes up his mind or has it made up for him on when to go.
The longer it goes the worse it will get for her.
Those commenting above reckoning that Ballina is a possible return to the Nationals are dreaming. Despite having a conservative image, Ballina is no longer sugar cane and cow country. The local council is pretty progressive and green in outlook. The influx of tree and sea changers has brought in people who value conservation. The retirees who chose this area instead of the Gold Coast are less committed to the pokies and more to involvement in the local libraries. Though there is still a core of old timers and their young fogey offspring around.
Seems like a pretty good prescription for Labor there, Jim. High speed rail between Melbourne and Brisbane may be a white elephant but it’s certainly overdue for Newcastle to Wollongong. I wouldn’t be too worried about infrastructure projects finishing up and becoming popular, though. As others have said, they’ve generally prioritised the wrong projects for their developer mates or blundered the key details. Have they even found a developer yet that’s willing to even attempt to start building their ‘impossible’ underground interchange for westconnex?
Re Ballina, I wouldn’t read too much into the make up of the local council. Many safe liberal areas are controlled by progressive independents. How is the local member up there regarded?
Regarding Ballina, last election CSG was a white hot issue, long-time local MP Don Page had retired and the Nats ran a hopeless candidate. The seat fell to the Greens Tamara Smith who is probably best described as ‘meh’. Byron Shire is very progressive as are northern parts of Ballina Shire (e.g. Lennox Head). Ballina itself, Alstonville and south of Ballina are very conservative. It all depends on the candidates who run for the three major parties, but I’d expect a stronger result for the Nats this time if they run someone decent.
I wouldn’t be so sure that projects won’t be popular, there are some great public transport capacity improvements on the way. Granted that the ones that are smart and give the greatest improvement (CBD and SW Metro and West Metro) actually don’t finish until 2024 onwards, so hopefully Labor will be cutting the ribbon on those! Judging on the experience elsewhere (Inner West, Gold Coast, Adelaide) the light rail projects in the South East and Parramatta will probably be popular once they open too, but this won’t be until after the 2019 election as they are running behind.
Once again, I’m not sure the ‘developer mates’ schtick is the way to go, I’d change it to something about building homes for ‘people’ not ‘investors’, aka better quality development with social and transport infrastructure to match.
Labor will have to keep allowing development as we need the new housing to make housing affordable for working people and young people, and going too hard on ‘developer mates’ just opens the new Labor government up to accusations of being the same as the Libs when the development doesn’t stop when they get in.