Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

Malcolm Turnbull’s personal rating takes a tumble, but otherwise little change in the latest Newspoll.

The latest Newspoll has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged on last fortnight at 53-47, from primary votes of Coalition 37% (up one), Labor 38% (up one), Greens 9% (down one) and One Nation 7% (down one). Despite the stability on voting intention, Malcolm Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister has been slashed from 40-33 to 37-35. The Australian’s report relates that Turnbull is down two points on approval to 32%, and Shorten is down one to 33%, but the only hint we get about disapproval is that Turnbull’s result is worse than Shorten’s. More on that shortly. (UPDATE: Turnbull’s disapproval is up three to 57%, Shorten’s is up two to 56%). The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1657.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,078 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/the-gig-economy-is-endangering-wages-economists-say-20180306-p4z329.html

    Surprise surprise

    A fair day’s pay for a fair day’s work in anathema to the modern day businessman and his mates in the Liberal Party.

    They look to the US where hourly rates are so low people need two or three jobs to survive and the UK where the zero hours contract is seen as the way to run a business.

    I am too old to be affected but I have a message for the IPA and the BCA and their acolytes in government: the voters will not cop it.

    Ross Gittins warned them earlier today.

    “… workers have infinitely more votes than business people do. In the end, the economy is moulded to serve the interests of the many, not the few. Governments keep getting thrown out until they get that message.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/if-governments-don-t-get-this-message-they-will-be-tossed-out-20180305-p4z2yk.html

  2. Confessions @ #1995 Wednesday, March 7th, 2018 – 5:10 pm

    booleanbach @ #1998 Wednesday, March 7th, 2018 – 6:04 pm

    Even the kids these days seem smaller than when I was a kid!

    I find the opposite. Kids these days are huge! Both in height and weight.

    I’ve just had a break for two months and on Monday night had my PET class (about 13 yo).

    I saw my director standing outside the classroom talking to a boy I assumed was a new student.

    I went out and stood by awaiting an introduction when it finally struck me that it was Obito.

    He had grown at least two inches and his face had really matured, a complete change with him now standing well over my shoulder, which is a rare thing here. 🙂

  3. Jackol:

    Yes, a bug bear of mine too.

    Herb and spice replacements are another eg. You used to be able to buy packet versions of most herbs and spices as refills. The variety has been dwindling, forcing consumers to continue buying the bottles which are more expensive. Plus I don’t get to reuse empty jam, mayo or mustard jars as spice jars using the refill packets. Very annoying.

  4. Barney:

    I walked into a meeting the other week with someone I’m on a board with and a couple of youths I assumed were year 12 or Tafe students, perhaps volunteers in her service.

    Turned out they were her kids who had been sent home sick from school and she had no choice but to bring them to the meeting with her. One aged 13 and the other aged 15! You could’ve knocked me down with a feather such was my surprise.

  5. poroti says:
    Wednesday, March 7, 2018 at 9:18 pm

    It is not just “memories”. Remember when 375g cans were standard ? Then they became 350g and now in the 330s.

    Nevertheless, the cost of food (as in the weekly shopping bill) has gone down considerably over the years, starting counting from the time the last child left home, 15 years ago.

  6. Player One says:
    Wednesday, March 7, 2018 at 9:24 pm
    don @ #1999 Wednesday, March 7th, 2018 – 9:18 pm

    The frog that boils is, indeed, a fable.

    The rotters jump out as soon as the water gets too warm. It is a myth.

    _____________

    How many frogs died so you could find this out? At the very least, tell me they were actually cane toads!

    ____________

    Of course no frogs died. Follow the logic.

  7. “Or is the idea to get rid of me before I become a burden?”
    I can’t remember what they proposed doing to you if you welched on the deal and didn’t agree to be euthanised (they actually caused it “transitioned”).

  8. Don ‘It would be interesting to know what her family is like, in particular her mother.’

    When I checked up on her bio, there was no mention of a mother. Dad was mentioned.

    I thought the fact that she may not have a mother was the reason some people earlier were speculating that she was not human.

  9. LOL or Anthony Scaramucci! Media isn’t buying this, perhaps they should go for the just the coffee boy excuse.

    Jim AcostaVerified account@Acosta
    7h7 hours ago
    Source close to WH says West Wing officials are minimizing Cohn’s departure as “New York guy going back to New York…” lumping him in with Hicks and Raffel… as NY people who end up back in NY. (Trump is from NY)

  10. Don

    It is well know that Cash’s father George was a long serving Liberal MP in WA.

    he was first elected to the lower house then after a redistribution he moved to the Legislative Council where he was a frontbencher in opposition, then a Minister for Mines and and Lands in Richard Court’s Government and president of the Legislative Council.

    It says something that my memory of him is hazy, but I have a recollection of him as sharply dressed and well spoken and not in the least like his daughter.

    Of his wife, and Michaelias’s mother, a search reveals no more than her name and the fact that they divorced.

    It has been mentioned that Cash spent time working for Ross Lightfoot, a WA MP and later Senator and one-time partner of Julie Bishop. Now there was a loose cannon.

    Edit: one source says George was once a member of the AWU!

  11. P1:

    It’s the humane way to cook live crabs. Put them to sleep first by placing them in the freezer for an hour or so.

  12. This is what the RMIT Centre for Urban Research says about the West Gate Tunnel Project:

    The WGTP in its current form…
    a. Is oversized, and does not meet most of its stated objectives.
    b. Has been planned without reference to a strategic framework for transportation in Victoria.
    c. Is premised upon a transport modelling process that has been secretive.
    d. Will hinder public transport service provision which, we argue, is against the stated objectives of the Transport
    Integration Act.
    e. Has a poorly considered urban design dimension, and will devastate potential for urban renewal in the
    brownfields areas to the north and west of Melbourne CBD.
    f. Emerges from a market-led process for infrastructure procurement that is opaque and raises serious
    governance questions.
    g. Includes an up-front public contribution of 1/3 the project cost plus a 12-year extension of the right to toll
    CityLink which is a very poor use of public funds and deprives Victoria of significant future revenue. These costs
    far outweigh any reasonable or credible assessment of the benefits.
    Therefore, we call on the Victorian Government to immediately stop work on the WGTP. The original West Gate Distributor
    proposal is a more appropriately scaled, reasonably priced, and strategically suitable solution. The fact that Transurban
    is willing to invest in a capital project at this time must not be used as a justification for ignoring the need for an integrated
    Victorian Transport Plan, or the long stated strategic objectives of the Victorian community.

    http://apo.org.au/system/files/122421/apo-nid122421-499941.pdf

  13. I tried that, but all I got was a case of frostbite and an embarrassing trip to the doctor!

    Top mount fridges are a problem like that. It’s enormously difficult to get your crabs in the freezer to start with. Then you have the fall risk.

  14. ratsak @ #2030 Wednesday, March 7th, 2018 – 10:10 pm

    Top mount fridges are a problem like that. It’s enormously difficult to get your crabs in the freezer to start with. Then you have the fall risk.

    A top mounted fridge? Are you crazy? I went down to the fish markets and used their walk-in freezer! As soon as I said I had crabs, they let me go right in!

  15. This for me is good in regards to sledging, but …

    I don’t believe there is room for personal attacks as well, ultimately it should always be about cricket.

    Line drawn in sledging battle
    Australia have long had a reputation for attempting to unsettle opposition players with words as well as actions, but Paine says there was a line the team would not cross.

    “Our stuff is the way we’ve always played our cricket,” he said. “Certainly it’s hard, and we like to make them feel uncomfortable out there.

    “But we don’t cross the line and bring people’s wives and family into the cricket game. And we’ll continue to do that for as long as we play.”

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-03-07/david-warner-cleared-to-play-in-second-test-in-south-africa/9525308

  16. Barney

    Players of all teams should be told that the next one who makes a sexual reference to someone’s wife, sister, brother, mother, father, distant cousin … whatever, gets a 12-month ban on no pay.

    That will sort them.

    Fining Warner, or any high profile player, part of their match fee is just a joke. They are on millions a year.

    The administrators and umpires are weak as water. Just like tennis.

  17. BiGD

    Yeah family has never been part of cricket “sledges” 🙂
    .
    Rod Marsh : “So how’s your wife & my kids?”

    Ian Botham : “The wife is fine but the kids are retarded”
    .
    McGrath: “Why are you so fat?”

    Brandes “Because every time I fuck your wife, she gives me a biscuit.”
    .
    Upon Ormond’s arrival at the crease Mark Waugh said . “fuck me, look who it is. Mate, what are you doing out here?There’s no way you’re good enough to play for England.”

    Ormond replied: “Maybe not, but at least I’m the best player in my family.”

  18. Newspoll VIC state
    TPP ALP 52 L/NP 48
    Primaries ALP 37 L/NP 42 ON 6 GRN 11
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/vic-labor-posts-solid-election-year-lead-over-guy/news-story/122567cc7a80ce299c1d039409faa7c8 paywalled

    Vic Labor posts solid election year lead over Guy
    SAMANTHA HUTCHINSON The Australian 10:11PM March 7, 2018

    The Victorian Labor government holds an election-­winning lead over the Coalition on the back of Premier Daniel ­Andrews’ sharply higher ­personal satisfaction ratings, but two-thirds of voters believe the ALP must do more to fight street gangs and violent crime.

    The Andrews government leads the Coalition 52 to 48 per cent on two-party-­preferred terms, which mirrors the 2014 election result and would ­comfortably return Labor to ­office, according to a Newspoll conducted exclusively for The Australian.

    Labor leads despite the first-term government battling a ­series of crises and a backlash over law and order that is dominating public debate.

    In an election year being dominated by crime and cost-of-living issues, Labor’s primary vote sits at 37 per cent, dropping three percentage points since the previous Newspoll in November 2016, but a drop of just 1.1 percentage points from the vote recorded at the 2014 election.

    The result of the poll, taken since the beginning of February, will alarm Coalition MPs who have become increasingly optimistic they can win the eight ­additional seats required to form a majority government at the ­November 24 election.

    The Coalition’s primary vote under Liberal leader Matthew Guy has slipped to 39 per cent, which represents a three-point drop from the 42 per cent recorded at the previous Newspoll and the last election.

    Both major parties’ lost support appears to have swung to One ­Nation, which recorded a primary vote of 6 per cent. This was the first time One Nation was surveyed in a Victorian Newspoll, separate from other minor parties, whose own support still rose by one point.

    Mr Andrews’ satisfaction rating has surged six points to 46 per cent, while Mr Guy’s rose just two points to 36 per cent.

    …………………………

    On the One Nation vote, Mr Briggs said the 6 per cent primary vote support would generally be made up of both Coalition and Labor voters.

    The Pauline Hanson-led party has registered to contest the election.

    In order for the 6 per cent result to be replicated in an election, One Nation would have to field candidates in every seat, which seems unlikely. One Nation tends to poll poorly in Victoria.

    Mr Briggs said that it could not be assumed that support for One Nation in the survey would be entirely disaffected Coalition voters because there had traditionally been strong support among blue-collar Labor voters in other states.

    “The One Nation vote comes off both the Coalition side of politics and Labor,’’ he said.

    The Greens primary vote in the Newspoll was 11 per cent.

    The poll was based on 1268 interviews and comes as both major parties advance their election strategies.

  19. BUPA members need to read the following article

    Thanks for that Billie.

    It aligns with my experience that you get better health care in the public system, esp if you have surgery in one of the major teaching hospitals. I’ve never used my private health insurance for any surgery I’ve had over the years, choosing instead to be treated as a public patient.

    As the article points out however, if you want elective surgery or some ancillary procedures, private health is advantageous.

    Note to self: schedule a trip to the dentist before ditching PHI.

  20. Confessions – no Essential poll this week. Its now fortnightly, and the last one was released 27 Feb, so we’ll get one next week.

  21. rossmcg @ #2035 Wednesday, March 7th, 2018 – 6:48 pm

    Barney

    Players of all teams should be told that the next one who makes a sexual reference to someone’s wife, sister, brother, mother, father, distant cousin … whatever, gets a 12-month ban on no pay.

    That will sort them.

    Fining Warner, or any high profile player, part of their match fee is just a joke. They are on millions a year.

    The administrators and umpires are weak as water. Just like tennis.

    If you read the story, Warner’s actions were in reaction to such comments made by De Kock.

    No excusing Warner’s behaviour, he deserved everything he got punishment wise, and as boomy1’s parody article suggests “he was just being David Warner,” he supposedly didn’t make any such comments and wasn’t punish for such.

    One of the major problems with sledging, especially in international sport, can be cultural differences.

    What may be inoffensive in one place can be the most odious slur in another and I believe if we draw the line at only allowing comments related to cricket we are less likely to cross the line. 🙂

  22. Rex will be happy Andrews is in front.Election betting on this site shows Libs $1.60 Lab 2.15. Shows the odds should be taken with a pinch of salt.

  23. Barney

    I said any team. Ban de Kock too.

    why it should be acceptable to make remarks on the cricket field that would earn you a smack in the mouth down the pub on a Friday night is beyond me.

    What’s said on the field stays on the field? Spare me.

    Racist remarks are not tolerated why should sexist comments be allowed.

    I remember many years ago reading AFL great Tim Watson writing about sledging in football. He told some funny, and unfunny stories about various players about what they had said to try and unsettle opponents or win a favour from an umpire, or berate them.

    He finished by saying there was one opponent he had never heard say a word, to a rival player or an umpire.

    The player was Leigh Matthews, widely regarded as one of the best there has been.

  24. I heard Cash worked extremely closely with Lightfoot, in the ‘Turnbull rule’ sense.

    This is interesting, from when he retired :


    Senator Lightfoot has told ABC TV’s Stateline program he does not think Mr Corman is the person for the job.

    “I think that more appropriate people have served the party longer, who are more appropriate with respect to family values, and who have a track record that’s easily and clearly scrutinised,” he said.


    http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2007-04-28/wa-senator-critical-of-probable-replacement/2534130

  25. If you are very sick and need urgent treatment, public hospitals are where you need to go. If you condition is not urgent, even though it may be painful and/or life-limiting, you go on the end if the queue. In private health insurance, you pay to jump the queue. Like asylum seekers arriving on boats, but approved, indeed encouraged, by Coalition Governments. And, of course, private insurance and private hospitals cherry pick. Private hospitals don’t do emergencies.

    My experience with public hospitals us if you are very sick and in need of urgent attention, you will be triaged and given fairly prompt attention. If you are not that sick, you have a long wait. The danger zone seems to be when you are very sick but for whatever reason not identified as such.

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