The latest Newspoll has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged on last fortnight at 53-47, from primary votes of Coalition 37% (up one), Labor 38% (up one), Greens 9% (down one) and One Nation 7% (down one). Despite the stability on voting intention, Malcolm Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister has been slashed from 40-33 to 37-35. The Australian’s report relates that Turnbull is down two points on approval to 32%, and Shorten is down one to 33%, but the only hint we get about disapproval is that Turnbull’s result is worse than Shorten’s. More on that shortly. (UPDATE: Turnbull’s disapproval is up three to 57%, Shorten’s is up two to 56%). The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1657.
@Ven – been around a while.
Tas was very clearly run on state issues, Fed Labor is not dealing with the same issues, noting that despite having a popular Lib Govt in 2016, at the Fed election there was an 8.5% swing to the ALP and the the Fed Libs were wiped out. Tas Labor feels like NSW Labor, the Libs aren’t doing much hugely wrong but there’s still a lot of bad blood and time needed to win back trust of the swing voters.
So if you’re freaking out over that, best focus your attention elsewhere.
‘Typical Donald’: Biographer explains how tariff-promoting Trump went ‘out of his way’ to use cheap Chinese steel
Appearing on MSNBC, Trump biographer David Cay Johnson — who is also an economist — laughed at the president’s proposal to raise steel and aluminum tariffs and reminded viewers that during his real estate developing days Trump always sought out cheap foreign steel.
Speaking with AM Joy host Joy Reid, Johnson said Trump had no idea how his abrupt announcement will affect world’s economy and went on to say that Trump really knows nothing about finance despite “being given” a degree in economics.
With Reid turning back to the Trump’s steel tariffs, she asked,
. “Did Donald Trump use American steel, by the way, when he was building his buildings?”
A laughing Johnson replied, “He went to great lengths, as [journalist] Kurt Eichenwald sussed out to use Chinese steel.”
“This is classic Donald, ‘Do as I say and not as I do,” the biographer quipped, “And let’s keep in mind, Donald was given a degree in economics — I use that verb deliberately because he was given a degree in economics by Penn. And this and a lot of other things demonstrate he doesn’t have any idea what he’s talking about.”
After breaking down a history of tariffs that led to disastrous results, Johnson circled back to mocking Trump’s intelligence.
“Donald doesn’t know anything, and I mean that literally,” he remarked. “He is completely ignorant about things like this and his ignorance is just appalling and it’s really damaging to us.”
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/03/typical-donald-biographer-explains-tariff-promoting-trump-went-way-use-cheap-chinese-steel/
Ides
If they are not regularly enforced then they are not there. Policies without actionable rights are as weak as a Liberal planning minister. Relative to other countries or other rights, our rules on amenity are very weak. For example, if you take away somebodies access, you have to compensate them. The same is not true for the other issues I listed, whereas they are actionable in other countries. Until we fix that, people will understandably object to more density, even though it is the only solution to lots of sprawl and very high infrastructure costs.
C@tmomma
You are more generous than I am. Barnaby has caused a lot of pain to workers in ‘his’ department and to Australia as a whole through his many decisions on agriculture, water supplies, climate change, etc. He has blundered along, on a high salary, happy to deceive us as it’s ‘best for Barnaby’. Let him reap what he has sown (or not 😉 ).
Why re so many Greens on PB this morning claiming “I am not a Green”?
Mind you, given their ridiculous campaigning in Tasmania and Batman, I can understand that even their most ardent supporters no longer want to be associated with them.
Well, yes, even that possibly. And Bw, I’m musing and talking generally now. But raising these sorts of accusations isn’t easy and can bring even more damage on the victim; ask a rape victim. It’s not a matter of cutting him some slack. It’s more a matter of seeing him get due justice while minimising self harm.
I guess I’m thinking along these lines because the accusations seemed to me at least to be slow to gather momentum, as if there is/was for some karmic need for Pell to be held accountable as opposed to secreted away in luxury unable to be got at.
I repeat I’m just musing, which might be a bit foolish here on a Monday morning.
As an example, if I were a traumatised rape victim, one of many, and I saw my rapist getting due justice, I might save myself the ordeal of coming out. If on the other hand my silence meant the rapist not being held to account, I make be prepared to make the charge. That’s what I’m wondering, something along those lines.
Regarding Pell’s reward of looking after the Vatican finances for services rendered.
Once you realise the Catholic Church is a cult, you can understand it acts like a cult.
A number one priority of cults is to protect the brand. The cult uses whatever means it can to do so. This ranges from moving, hiding and protecting criminals in the cult, to attacking the victims of the cult that speak out.
This is not a golden rule, but cults that don’t do this don’t survive. So it is what cults do.
Pell protected the RC brand very well, hence the high esteem he is held inside the organisation.
ratsak: “Pokies hurt Labor in Tasmania for sure, but don’t let that hide the damage the prospect of having to govern with the Greens did. Like the 2016 federal election, the memories of the last government was a massive disadvantage.”
You mean people’s “recovered memories” of the last government. Once the somewhat pompous and detached Bartlett left the scene and was replaced by Giddings, the 2010-14 coalition government went pretty well. The most unpopular things that happened under them were:
a) the forestry agreement, which all the sensible elements in the forestry industry thought was terrific, but was the end of the universe as far as the rabid diehards were concerned; and
b) a series of budget cuts about which – at a time of falling revenue – the government didn’t have any choice. (Hodgman has had the pleasure of governing during an economic boom, with revenues rising quite rapidly).
The “people want majority rule” argument is just another move in the endlessly tedious game of blaming the Greens for problems which are largely of Labor’s own making.
Socrates
Compensenation for loss of amenity and its flipside (added costs for increased amenity) is a difficult area to get into. Generally the approach appears to be prevent it from happening. So for instance there is a number of planning principles in the Land + Enviro Court of NSW that cover them. Ie view loss has a test to assess it. You are right that loss of access generally appears to be the only one with compensenation, but by the same point another land owner can have an easement for access imposed upon them even if not an original party.
On the flipside Sydney’s attempts at a betterment tax in the 70’s (akin to value capture today) was shot down pretty quickly by developers.
Lizzie, it is amazing how people want to change to rules to ‘nice’ when the shoe is on the other foot. I have no sympathy for Joyce. He was happy to condemn young women to cervical cancer, wreck whole ecosystems, and contribute to wrecking the planet. He has stuffed people around with his brain fart of moving a Department to Arimdale. When he gets himself in a personal pickle, it is time to play nice.
Why we should never follow the US down the rabbid hole – Hodgeman in Tasmania is part of the eternal push to widen gun ownership and loosen regulation:
The current debate about school shootings reveals a neoliberal order that has tipped over into authoritarianism where the highest measure of how a society judges itself ethically and politically is no longer about how it treats and invests in its children.
http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/43732-killing-children-in-the-age-of-disposability-the-parkland-shooting-was-about-more-than-gun-violence
meher baba: Well said.
Ides
I understand that people do not do it here. I am saying that has been a mistake. It is done in lots of other places, though not so much in the English speaking world, so “researchers” who only read wikipedia will not appreciate the issues.
The Sydney history proves that developers control laws here, not vice versa.
See
https://www.dora.dmu.ac.uk/bitstream/handle/2086/11434/Pedithep%20Youyuenyong%20final.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y
Compared with:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Right_to_light
The continuing good results for Labor in Newspoll are of interest, but it strikes me that a percentage point or two of the 53% could come from conservative desperadoes who, inspired by the ranting and raving of the Andrew Bolts and Alan Joneses of this world, are pretending to pollsters that they would vote Labor in the hope that this will bring down Malcolm so that the Tone can arise phoenix-like from the ashes.
If so, that’s a good thing for you Labor lovers, because I believe that nothing would help Labor’s cause more than the return of the vastly overrated Abbott (“best opposition leader ever “: the best, that is, of all those opposition leaders in Australian history facing up to a government that was being whiteanted from within by Kevin Rudd).
I appreciate all of Malcolm’s drawbacks: the seeming disorganisation and lack of control, the waffling, etc, etc. But he’s still got something going for him that he shares with the most successful political leaders in Australian history (Menzies, Hawke and Howard, until the latter threw it away with Workchoices): a sense of being both moderate and safe. In an election context, I reckon this would give him a significant edge over Labor which might just be enough to win his party a third term in government.
But Abbott 2.0 against Shorten would simply be a rerun of Rudd 2.0 vs Abbott. Game over.
Not a new thought, I know, but…
Player One:
As far as I can see, the only person who has said anything like that this morning is Trog. And I can see no reason to assume that he is lying, as you seem to be implying.
Socrates
I’m not in disagreement. I also agree with more uniform medium density is needed across middle ring suburbs of Australian cities. Convincing people of such is difficult.
Socrates
“We also rarely require high rise developers to set aside enough parkland in the absence of backyards, or provide funds towards providing infrastructure to meet the transport demands high rise induces.”
Ain’t that the truth. There should be some mandated non-negotiable, regardless of contributions to Party Coffers, open space the size of which is determined by a factor derived from the number of back yards that aren’t.
Good Morning
58 Newspolls rejecting neo liberal trickle down economics!
Woohoo!!!
Billboard in Florida.
Seems Rudy Guiliani is not laying low like we thought. Remember these are grown me with daughters and grand-daughters, not teenage boys battling surging hormones.
lizzie @ #165 Monday, March 5th, 2018 – 6:17 am
BBBbbut look at those big, sharp teeth, those cold, steely eyes and it’s f@#king huge!!!!
AAAHHHHHHHHHhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Meanwhile the Italian election is on. Looks like a right/far right coalition will form government. While he cant be PM anymore, Berlusconi is haging around in that potential coalition.
Ides of March not.logged in @ #173 Monday, March 5th, 2018 – 7:38 am
The Russians have been active in the Italian elections too.
https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/03/01/inenglish/1519922107_909331.html?id_externo_rsoc=TW
MB
“a sense of being both moderate and safe. In an election context, I reckon this would give him a significant edge over Labor which might just be enough to win his party a third term in government.”
I reckon that if that is so, it’s fading (see PPM figures).
Also, everything that Shorten does or says in public is carefully calculated to make him appear (wait for it) moderate and safe.
MB
58 Newspolls rejecting the LNP Trickle Down economics from the Hockey Budget on.
Thats at the core of why the LNP are polling so badly. Just add inept to the mix and the Newspolls make perfect sense
Asha Leu says:
Monday, March 5, 2018 at 8:32 am
On Newspoll. I’m surprised its still only 53-47.
There is nothing even slightly surprising about this result. Labor have to campaign against the blue Tories on on hand and green Tories on the other. Labor’s PV is 38%. Until this top-line can be increased a 2PP share of 53% is probably the upper limit. Of course, the factor that most limits Labor’s PV is the incessant anti-Labor campaigning by the perpetual liars, the Green Tories.
Ides, Itzadream
Thanks and agreed. I think Labor will need to start having a coherent policy on these issues; leaving it up to states has been a disaster. We do not want to create suburbs of the modern equivalent of 60’s high rise estates in inner Sydney and Melbourne, as I far we are headed towards in some cases. This is an issue Labor could lead on, and win back the green vote. Urban quality of life is just as important as hugging trees IMO. ACT Labor is doing it well.
WorldOfMarkyD: TO PUT THIS #Newspoll INTO PERSPECTIVE
preferred PM ratings since 2015
Bill Shorten
35% (+21)
Malcolm Turnbull
37% (-39)
#AusPol twitter.com/worldofmarkyd/…
Socrates
I will only add on to say I agree with you on the ACT. I was pleasantly surprised when I looked through Gunghalin along the tram route to see so many townhouse and unit developments fronting it.
jacobinmag: Exit poll (RAI) in Italy:
Movimento 5 Stelle 30.5
Partito Democratico 22
Forza Italia 14.5
Lega (Nord) 14.5
Fratelli d’Italia 5
Liberi e Uguali 4
Più Europa 3.5
Noi con l’Italia 2
As predicted the Italians have a mess on their hands
Did PHON run candidates in the Tas election or was it just Lambie’s mob who represented the reactionary rightwing?
Confessions says:
Monday, March 5, 2018 at 10:52 am
Did PHON run candidates in the Tas election or was it just Lambie’s mob who represented the reactionary rightwing?
I don’t think PHON have a presence in Tasmania. But there are Tories everywhere…the Lambies, the Green Tories, the Blue Tories….
Should point put 3 things on Italy
1) Exit polls are always difficult.
2) Turnout is low soo far.
3) Italy changed their electoral system. 1/3 seats are First-Past-The-Post and 2/3 are proportional. It hasnt been tested before so there is mass confusion at the ballot box I understand.
Can anyone make any sense of this?
This is a very good read and real food for thought.
https://newsocialist.org.uk/public-ownership-of-the-public-sphere/
Exit polls in Italy are very unreliable
Everything in Italy is very unreliable.
Pell’s alleged offences sit at the lower end of the scale that the RC has highlighted.
I don’t say this in an attempt to excuse his behaviour, I think he should rightfully be pursued to the full force of the law for them.
The issue that seems to be largely undealt with here is the role played by the enablers within these organisations.
Can you image the position now if these perpetrators were dealt with in a timely and appropriate manner when concerns were first raised?
In many cases instead of dozens of victims having been impacted by a perpetrator we would only have a few.
These enablers created the cultural environment that allowed these crimes to occur and for mine are accessories to any crimes committed after such accusations and suspicions were raised.
As such they should be pursued legally with as much vigour as the actual perpetrators.
With Pell and other senior officials there are questions relating to how they dealt with these matters and the outcomes resulting from them.
This for me is, just as, if not more serious than the current allegations in court! 🙁 🙁 🙁 🙁 🙁
Dio
True. Italy is a contradiction.
I am headed over there in June.
“Can anyone make any sense of this?
VAINGLORY @island_scenery · 12m12 minutes ago
The @AustralianLabor Party endorse Indonesia wiping out the Orangutans – why are they so driven on destroying Aussie Flora & Fauna as well ?”
The Greens are awful?
By all accounts, George Pell is an excellent administrator. Not so good as a pastor.
In the abuse scandals, Pell has behaved as a senior executive defending his company. He, and the broader Church hierarchy, have reacted pretty much as the management or a large corporation reacts to scandals, e.g. James Hardie Ltd and asbestos.
No wrecking or sniping of course, Abbott’s just being nice enough to provide Turnbull a Dixer to explain why he shouldn’t resign at 30 Newspolls.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/mar/05/turnbulls-popularity-drops-as-joyce-saga-rolls-on-newspoll-shows
Thanks Briefly.
There’s a song playing on Jon Faine’s show at the moment which makes me think the Vogons were good poets…
The Shovel
http://www.theshovel.com.au/2018/03/05/barnaby-joyces-entire-parliamentary-career-may-not-be-his/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=barnaby_joyce_s_entire_parliamentary_career_may_not_be_his&utm_term=2018-03-05
lizzie @ #185 Monday, March 5th, 2018 – 7:00 am
Unless the ALP is a major investor in Indonesian Palm Oil plantations, I can not see any logic here.
The Indonesian Government has no policy to eradicate orangutans.
The major danger to orangutans is the illegal logging of forests in Sumatra and Kalimantan (Borneo), to create new land for plantations, which is encroaching on their habitat.
Steve777 @ #191 Monday, March 5th, 2018 – 7:20 am
That depends on who/what he considered his flock was!!
Barney in Go Dau says:
Monday, March 5, 2018 at 11:09 am
…”Pell’s alleged offences sit at the lower end of the scale that the RC has highlighted”…
I would be very interested to hear how you know this as it was my understanding that the specifics of Pell’s alleged offenses had be suppressed by his lawyers?
Nothing I have seen mentioned in the media refers to other than “historical sex offenses”.
BarneyiGD
Thanks. I couldn’t see it. I think he (it?) just wants to post against Labor. Has a lot of followers, tho. I’ve blocked this person.