Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

Malcolm Turnbull’s personal rating takes a tumble, but otherwise little change in the latest Newspoll.

The latest Newspoll has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged on last fortnight at 53-47, from primary votes of Coalition 37% (up one), Labor 38% (up one), Greens 9% (down one) and One Nation 7% (down one). Despite the stability on voting intention, Malcolm Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister has been slashed from 40-33 to 37-35. The Australian’s report relates that Turnbull is down two points on approval to 32%, and Shorten is down one to 33%, but the only hint we get about disapproval is that Turnbull’s result is worse than Shorten’s. More on that shortly. (UPDATE: Turnbull’s disapproval is up three to 57%, Shorten’s is up two to 56%). The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1657.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,078 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  4. Did you know precious metals (gold, silver etc.) are GST free? But only if you’re the person digging it up, refining it and selling it on to a dealer. I just don’t get that.

  5. Transurban:

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/dec/11/greens-single-out-13-companies-that-paid-no-tax-yet-donated-to-major-parties

    hirteen companies that paid no tax in 2015-16 made $1.7m in political donations to the Liberal and Labor parties in that year, the Greens have complained.
    ::::
    The remaining nine companies that paid no tax but made donations were: Metro Property Development Pty Ltd ($71,500), Careers Australia Group ($69,550), the National Roads and Motorists Association Ltd ($60,990), Austal Ltd ($59,589), Bluescope Steel Limited ($54,200), Pfizer Australia Pty Limited ($45,600), Origin Energy ($42,703), Transurban Limited ($35,720) and Whitehaven Coal Limited ($22,000).
    :::
    Companies’ political donations are not tax deductible. While there is no suggestion these companies reduced their tax bills through donations, the Greens highlighted them as an example of the links between big business and major political parties.

    The Greens leader, Richard Di Natale, said: “Our democracy is broken when 13 companies have paid zero dollars in tax but can still find $1.7m to donate to the Labor and Liberal parties.

  6. I am being facetious.

    Marriott would simply have to quit her government job to run for Parliament … but given that she is fairly well entrenched in the Kimberley as a councillor (elected last year) and her previous employment was with the Kimberley Cattlemen’s Association for several years the idea that she would chuck that in to run for Nats in rural Victoria bemuses me.

  9. ‘mikehilliard says:
    Wednesday, March 7, 2018 at 6:46 pm

    Did you know precious metals (gold, silver etc.) are GST free? But only if you’re the person digging it up, refining it and selling it on to a dealer. I just don’t get that.’

    It is not just the GST.

    Originally it was far too easy for small miners to avoid all taxes so governments got with the flow.

    Why this should apply to massive corporates is another matter.
    Making the refining tax free is a massive tax avoidance enabler.

  11. mikehilliard @ #1904 Wednesday, March 7th, 2018 – 3:46 pm

    Did you know precious metals (gold, silver etc.) are GST free? But only if you’re the person digging it up, refining it and selling it on to a dealer. I just don’t get that.

    Even if gold in these circumstances was taxed it would be a net zero exercise because at no point was the gold sold to a final consumer – who can’t get a refund for the GST paid.

  13. Greens senator Janet Rice, 15 February 2018 – Question without notice on Transurban Group:

    http://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/display/display.w3p;query=Id%3A%22chamber%2Fhansards%2Fde3d126f-2c4b-4121-8da7-16e1eba359e3%2F0303%22;src1=sm1

    I have raised this question in estimates and asked Infrastructure Australia whether this information has been made available to them so that they could do an assessment of the value of this toll road in solving our traffic problems in Melbourne. Infrastructure Australia said they asked the Victorian government for it, but the Victorian government have not been forthcoming. They’ve requested it multiple times, and it still hasn’t been forthcoming. You can only presume that the very behaviour that the CEO of Transurban, Scott Charlton, was accusing other companies of doing—of having incredibly dodgy data and dodgy modelling to support their toll road—is exactly what Transurban have been doing themselves.

    If they haven’t been doing that then they need to come clean. They need to say to the Victorian government: ‘I think the independent peer review that was done of our road should be made public. It should be made available to Infrastructure Australia.’ It should be made available to the community so we can judge for ourselves whether this massive polluting toll road is really a good deal for Victoria and for Melburnians. As it stands at the moment, it doesn’t stack up. We’ve got Transurban operating in cahoots with the Victorian Labor government, and meanwhile the federal government here is just turning a blind eye to it all.

  14. PresidentBushranger‏ @grumpyshortpant

    So Greens have just voted with Libs to block 14km of bike paths, 4 MCGs of wetlands and parks, 3 cycling bridges, a veloway, pedestrian infrastructure and take 9,000 trucks off the road.

    But that’s ok. It’s only cost 6,000 jobs.

    #springst #batmanvotes

  16. Explanation of the above post.

    Daniel Andrews‏Verified account @DanielAndrewsMP · 1h1 hour ago

    Major construction work has just been suspended on the West Gate Tunnel. Hundreds of workers will head home tonight with no idea whether they’ll be back tomorrow. Why? Because today, the Liberals and Greens teamed up in Parliament to cancel the planning approval for the project.

  17. West Gate Tunnel and dodgy modelling:

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-14/west-gate-tunnel-project-business-case-flawed-expert-says/8803126

    The business case for Melbourne’s West Gate Tunnel project is based on flawed traffic modelling and cost-benefit analysis work, a transport planning consultant who previously advised the Victorian Government says.

    William McDougall has made a series of strong criticisms in a submission to a Senate inquiry into existing and proposed toll roads in Australia.
    :::
    In another submission to the inquiry, Melbourne based think-tank Grattan Institute also raised questions about the secrecy surrounding the project.

    “A lack of transparency gives rise to suspicion that the deal may not be in the best interests of the public,” it said.

  18. My impression is that the Greens are against Toll Roads. The lnp are simply negative against anything planned by Labor. I’m sure a Green will race to correct me.

  19. I am sure that Cash has her good points.

    It is just that she has made a career out of hiding her good points under a bushel.

  20. BK

    Is Cash human?

    When somebody makes the impact on politics that she has in recent years it is common for one of the newspapers to send one of their ace writers to compile the “life story” of the person for a magazine feature, talking to those who have know them since they were young, close friends, former friends, colleagues, ex-colleagues … often talking to people who decline to have their names published.

    I can’t find any such story on Cash. Sure we know about her father being a long serving WA Lib and how she was a lawyer and a staffer for sundry MPs.

    But what I want to know is if she was born nasty, learnt nasty at school or became nasty so she could rise through the WA Libs.

    Or maybe someone will tell us that she is not nasty at all.

  23. Peg,

    Transurban’s Westgate Tunnel has resulted in a planned brown fields project in the old west melbourne train yards called e-gate which would have provided housing for 10,000 being killed off. Vic ALP have basically gifted the land to Transurban so Wurundjeri Way can be extend to meet City Link. The other extension that Transurban’s plan includes dumps traffic off the so-called “Trucks access to the Docks” into North Melbourne which will impact the Arden/Macauly brownfields redevelopment around the new Metro station at Arden.

    The original project ALP took to the 2014 election left these sites intact.

    https://www.smh.com.au/video/video-news/video-victoria-news/egate-is-dead-20161223-4oqhf.html

  24. Michalia Cash is a revolting human being. I looked up her Wiki. She went to a modest Catholic girls school and from what I know of them, as my girls went to one, there is an emphasis on community service and looking after the vulnerable. My daughters were with the rest of the class were rostered to help in the City Mission, raise money for charity including overseas aid, and such like.

    The school had a wide variety of students with refugee and migrant backgrounds, they got Aboriginal Elders in to give talks, ditto Veterans and women who had made their mark on society etc etc.

    If the Perth school Cash attended did the same kind of things, and I have no reason to think otherwise, her schooling is not the source of her obnoxious attitude. I wonder what sort of friend she was to the other girls? (And it may be slander if I answered with my thoughts.)

    Maybe in her case it is nature, not nurture. Was she born a miserable, appalling human being? And found her niche in the awful Liberal Party, a perfect match.

  25. From Alex Bhathal virtue signalling…

    Look at these pedal power legends!
    While Labor drive their billboards across our suburbs on gas guzzling trucks and motorbikes, our amazing volunteers are zipping around on eight of these cute bicycles, standing up for a cleaner greener future. #BatmanVotes #Alex4Batman

  26. grimace

    Still don’t get it. To zero out the miner/refiner would need to claim 100% ITC against the GST on sales wouldn’t they? That would apply to the dealer as well. BTW I’m hopeless with finance.

  27. Yes, let’s go back to the Horse and Buggy days, people who are fleeing Sydney in droves might grace us with their presence again!

    Puhlease!

    To make an omelette you have to break a few eggs, however the result is a lot better than sucking eggs.

    Or, to put it in a way that I believe we should look at things like road projects. I live on the Central Coast of NSW, my parents live on the Mid North Coast of NSW. My brother lives in the suburbs of Sydney. One lot of family north, the other south. Now, to get to my family up north, in the past it used to take us a couple of hours more than it does now since Anthony Albanese organised construction and upgrading of the National Highway between Newcastle and points north. It has been a godsend, and I wouldn’t even mind paying a toll, if not an unreasonable amount, to travel on it, as opposed to the circuitous goat track, which is the only other alternative. However, there is no toll because federal Labor fully funded it.

    Same goes for the M1 Motorway to the south. To be built, it had to cut through pristine bushland, and a new bridge across a very scenic river had to be built. But it was worth it to be able to get to Sydney in 90 minutes, as opposed to the 2 to 3 hours it used to take to go by the Old Pacific Highway, especially in peak hour.

    Money well spent and a project worth doing.

    Another case in point. My son had to travel one night from the Central Coast to Western Sydney to receive his TAFE Certificates at a Presentation Night. So, by travelling on a mix of the M1 and the M5 and another toll road, we hardly had to go on a suburban street and through traffic lights. I think two on the whole trip. We certainly weren’t stuck behind B Double trucks, belching out their Diesel fumes. They zipped past us, and we zipped past them. No problem.

    Not to mention how easy it is, when I need to go to the airport, to use the freeway and the toll roads to get there.

    I really don’t mind paying the tolls, as long as they are reasonable, and the toll road cuts an appreciable amount of time off my journey.

    Finally, we are getting the North Connex here, and if anyone has ever been on Pennant Hills Road in Sydney, then they will know how much we need to get cars off it who don’t really need to be there.

    So spare me the sanctimony about toll roads. And this, Transurban, Boo! crap. Assess each proposal on it’s merits, and get a Labor government to oversee the project, so the Coalition mates DON’T get their grubby hands on taxpayers’ money.

    Anthony Albanese proved it CAN be done properly. Don’t throw the baby out with the bathwater.

  28. Puff

    Cash went to Iona Presentation College in Mosman Park in Perth’s very upmarket western beachside suburbs.

    Nothing modest about that school.

  29. sprocket_ @ #1891 Wednesday, March 7th, 2018 – 7:05 pm

    From Alex Bhathal virtue signalling…

    Look at these pedal power legends!
    While Labor drive their billboards across our suburbs on gas guzzling trucks and motorbikes, our amazing volunteers are zipping around on eight of these cute bicycles, standing up for a cleaner greener future. #BatmanVotes #Alex4Batman

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    I wonder how they feel at the end of the day after breathing in the truck fumes that The Greens don’t want to do anything about!?!

  31. Look at these pedal power legends!
    While Labor drive their billboards across our suburbs on gas guzzling trucks and motorbikes, our amazing volunteers are zipping around on eight of these cute bicycles, standing up for a cleaner greener future. #BatmanVotes #Alex4Batman

    This is about as genuine as “Woolworths the fresh food people”

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AmFTM9ddHXM

  32. Cash has good WA Liberal pedigree as George Cash (her father?) was Attorney-General in the Liberal government here back in the early 80s was it? George was an okay politician though he liked the sound of his own voice. Nothing out of the ordinary here. I think George still has his hand in as far as local (WA) Liberal politics are concerned. Others in Sandgropia may have more definite information. M/s Cash is just brash and I think she switches her mouth on before her brain – but then then is not alone in this as a politician. She certainly plays the street bruiser role well and Turnbull was clearly having us one when he suggested Cash was being bullied in the spat in Estimates not so long ago.

  33. sprocket_ @ #1925 Wednesday, March 7th, 2018 – 7:05 pm

    From Alex Bhathal virtue signalling…

    Look at these pedal power legends!
    While Labor drive their billboards across our suburbs on gas guzzling trucks and motorbikes, our amazing volunteers are zipping around on eight of these cute bicycles, standing up for a cleaner greener future. #BatmanVotes #Alex4Batman

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    Hope that they have pillion seats so that they can replace the need for a toll road…

    Should be great shifting eight commuters at any one time. Welcome to the 19th century the Australian Greens!

    Tom

  37. Well, I hope The Greens’ bicycle warriors are prepared for the B Double trucks that they want to leave on the streets of Inner City Melbourne!

  38. OK. It is a posh catholic girls school. I stand corrected. My girls went to one which stressed respect for self and others. I was quire happy with tge school, especially as rhey got full scholarships set aside for disadvantaged students.

  39. The thing about these toll roads is that vehicle technology is going to change the nature of the traffic on them long before the toll periods run out. I suspect that there will need to be thorough renegotiation of the agreements at some stage.

    These roads are ideal for autonomous cars and trucks (probably electric) which could be packed onto them much more densely than existing vehicles using sophisticated software to avoid collisions. This will disrupt the economic equation being used at the moment.

  44. Steve

    Under a Greens government all there will be on the roads will be bicycles.

    Maybe not the first few weeks, bringing down rents and power prices will be a priority.

  46. mikehilliard @ #1926 Wednesday, March 7th, 2018 – 4:07 pm

    grimace

    Still don’t get it. To zero out the miner/refiner would need to claim 100% ITC against the GST on sales wouldn’t they? That would apply to the dealer as well. BTW I’m hopeless with finance.

    The miner collects the GST on the sale and remits it to the ATO. The refiner/dealer pays the GST and claims an ITC – therefore net zero. It’s not until you get to the final consumer who can’t claim the GST back from the ATO that it is not a net zero exercise.

  48. Bushfire Bill @ #1891 Wednesday, March 7th, 2018 – 6:29 pm

    People are leaving Sydney in droves, and can you blame us?

    Have to agree with this. Sydney these days reminds me of the classic fable about boiling a frog. If you do it suddenly, the frog realizes and jumps out. But if do it gradually, the frog never cottons on, and eventually gets cooked to death.

  49. What a disgustingly fearmongering biased anti-union piece on 7:30 just now. Sure the merger of three arge unions is significant but there was no reporting on why they merged or why it is significant, just rehashed rubbish and allegations. Shame.

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