The latest Newspoll has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged on last fortnight at 53-47, from primary votes of Coalition 37% (up one), Labor 38% (up one), Greens 9% (down one) and One Nation 7% (down one). Despite the stability on voting intention, Malcolm Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister has been slashed from 40-33 to 37-35. The Australian’s report relates that Turnbull is down two points on approval to 32%, and Shorten is down one to 33%, but the only hint we get about disapproval is that Turnbull’s result is worse than Shorten’s. More on that shortly. (UPDATE: Turnbull’s disapproval is up three to 57%, Shorten’s is up two to 56%). The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1657.
The Turnbull Newspoll Advent Calendar.
28 down, 2 to go.
I hope the voters of Batman punish Labor for their lackadaisical and craven approach to reducing carbon pollution. And for their macroeconomic illiteracy, and their cruelty to vulnerable people.
How much does it cost to get the policy opinion you want? $55000! Its Ok, if there was any administrative fault here, it was probably made by Minister Canvan’s mum.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/audit-boss-tony-shepherd-was-paid-50-000-for-secret-government-review-20180304-p4z2qi.html
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Julia Baird goes right off on Barnaby Joyce who is unravelling before our very eyes.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/not-fine-time-for-vikki-campion-s-friends-to-stage-an-intervention-20180304-p4z2r2.html
Jenna Price doesn’t hold back either!
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/lifestyle/life-and-relationships/real-life/barnaby-joyce-paternity-tests-dont-make-you-a-father-20180304-h0wyl5.html
Adam Gartrell on Joyce defending his paternity remarks.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/barnaby-joyce-says-he-had-no-choice-but-to-confront-paternity-rumour-20180304-p4z2rn.html
Simon Benson reckons it was Joyce that caused Turnbull’s PPM lead to be slashed. Google.
/national-affairs/newspoll/malcolm-turnbull-suffers-drop-as-preferred-pm-in-the-wake-of-barnaby-joyces-baby-scandal/news-story/ddf2a53d711942a642ecaf783123d758
Urban Wronski on the influence of pokies groups on the Tassie election and also Michealia Cash’s performances.
https://urbanwronski.com/2018/03/04/one-armed-bandits-rob-tassie-election-while-cash-loses-plot-and-barnaby-finds-paternity-a-grey-area/
Glenn Davies examines Mary Shelley’s timeless cautionary tale, our endless fascination with fictional monsters — and Barnaby Joyce.
http://www.independentaustralia.net/about/ia-contributors/dr-glenn-davies-bio/
Trump has spoken to world leaders about his planned tariff hikes on steel and aluminium and is not considering any exemptions. Quite a triumph for Turnbull.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/no-exemptions-trump-rules-out-steel-and-aluminium-tariff-concessions-20180305-p4z2ta.html
In a warning of how a full-blown global trade war would confound Mr Trump’s tweet over the weekend that “trade wars are good, and easy to win”, modelling obtained by The Australian Financial Review by Deloitte Access Economics shows it would cost 20,000 jobs, wipe $5 billion off national income within a year, and derail a much-needed upswing in business investment. Google.
/news/economy/trump-administrations-trade-war-claims-first-australian-victim-20180304-h0wylv
Jess Irvine tells us why we should worry about Trump’s trade war.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/why-you-should-care-about-trump-s-trade-war-20180303-p4z2of.html
And Paul Kelly says that Trump’s protectionism is a threat to American workers, ¬industry and exports, and a betrayal of US leadership. Google.
/opinion/columnists/paul-kelly/paul-kelly-this-is-trumps-most-dangerous-step-yet/news-story/bf4586c65c3a1d357315a012550bbd4a
I’m not quite sure how to take this contribution from Tom Switzer on bias in the ABC.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/abc-should-rise-above-the-rancour-20180302-p4z2lp.html
The SMH editorial looks at the trajectory of The Greens after the Tasmanian elections.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/tasmania-still-on-the-surface-churn-underneath-20180304-h0wyzs.html
Until Labor solves its problem, with The Greens it will struggle to win elections in Tasmania.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/mar/05/tasmanian-election-how-the-greens-helped-dash-labors-hopes-of-victory
One courtroom. One local priest turned Vatican treasurer. One leading criminal defence barrister, infamous for his forensic mind and ruthless cross-examination. And more than 50 witnesses, including accusers ready to share their stories. This unprecedented legal showdown will attract a huge international media presence at Melbourne Magistrates Court as Cardinal George Pell arrives for the committal hearing for his historic sexual abuse case.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2018/03/05/george-pell-committal-hearing/
This year 12 student from Goulburn writes why guns have no place in schools,
https://www.smh.com.au/national/guns-have-no-place-in-schools-20180303-p4z2p5.html
Some people are a***holes and some councils are wimps.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/too-much-of-a-risk-heidi-s-losing-battle-with-sydney-s-selfish-drivers-20180302-p4z2ip.html
There’s been peace in the Conservative party since the prime minister May’s speech. But the gap between the two sides on Europe is unbridgeable, and fighting will soon flare up again.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/mar/04/theresa-may-truce-brexit-battle-europe-speech
Drawing on a loose interpretation of international data, Treasurer Mathias Cormann is once again trying to convince us that corporate tax cuts are a path to “jobs and growth”. The reality is that our companies already have plenty of funds to invest – funds they are presently handing back to shareholders and to overpaid corporate executives, writes Ian McAuley.
https://newmatilda.com/2018/03/03/cormanns-tax-cut-con-media-censoring-misreporting/
Just what we need. Another “independent” review by Tony Shepherd.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/audit-boss-tony-shepherd-was-paid-50-000-for-secret-government-review-20180304-p4z2qi.html
Chris Bowen will target tax loopholes and concessions in a speech today, arguing that the economic case for budget repair has never been stronger. Countering government criticism of Labor’s proposed crackdown on concessions Bowen will say an important part of sensible fiscal strategy is to identify tax concessions that “eat away at the revenue base” and reform or abolish them, so as “to underpin both budget repair and the funding of new initiatives”.
https://theconversation.com/failure-to-curb-tax-concessions-will-put-increasing-burden-on-ordinary-workers-bowen-92812
The opposition is preparing to walk away from the unemployment program, Work for the Dole, arguing it punishes the unemployed, puts young people in unsafe workplaces, and too often fails to get them into work.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-s-walk-from-the-dole-program-20180303-p4z2os.html
Australia’s eight-year house price boom has savaged the living standards of poorer Australians while so far leaving the wealthy untouched, a new Grattan Institute analysis finds. But the report, to be released today, warns of a “catastrophic” impact on all income groups should mortgage rates rise by more than a few percentage points.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/housing-risks-catastrophic-grattan-institute-20180304-p4z2qx.html
Petrol giant Caltex has been blasted by the Fair Work Ombudsman for systemic underpayment of wages and an unsustainable operating model across its franchise network. Google.
/business/caltex-franchise-model-noncompliant-and-unsustainable-fair-work-ombudsman-20180304-h0wylr
Eryk Bagshaw is saying that the time has come to end the tax free ride the AFL and NRL has been having.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/open-to-abuse-experts-slam-afl-s-tax-free-rort-20180304-p4z2rx.html
Ross Gittins writes about the strange things that are happening in retail.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/there-are-strange-things-happening-in-retail-20180303-h0wy57.html
Cartoon Corner
You’ll find quite a few cartoons in here that I may or may mot be able to show below.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/best-of-fairfax-cartoons-march-4-20180303-h0wycd.html
Dark, biblical work from David Rowe.
Mark David has three for us today.
As does Peter Broelman.
A couple from Matt Golding.
And from Sean Leahy.
Alan Moir and Trump’s listening events.
I give today’s prize to Jon Kudelka!
https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/3c0f788c3ba9f59df5d33c45fd9f6a76
Socrates
Canavan may be a charming, fair-minded and intelligent MP, but that’s not my impression.
No Barnaby’s problems were not necessarily the cause of Turnbull’s falling PPM figures.
If Turnbull was a decent effective leader, it wouldn’t have affected him at all.
His photos with Cher at the Mardigras will do him no favours at all. Certainly he may take them, but I don’t see any point in publishing them.
This is a very strange claim by Truffles.
https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/life-and-relationships/malcolm-turnbull-isn-t-fooling-anyone-20180304-p4z2t4.html
The destructive self-indulgence of the Greens was on display in the Greens’ leaders defeat speech.
The Greens have been fighting for 35 years. They are down to a seat or two. The Conservatives have the legitimacy for four more years of environmental wrecking, full bore pokies, weakened gun laws and assaults on public health, education and transport.
Labor has been gutted by its association with the Greens in governments past combined with incessant Greens targetting of Labor, including some particularly egregious slurs.
And what is the Greens’ Leader’s solution to all this?
Another 35 years of fighting!
Jesus wept.
Talk about stupid.
An interesting article —
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/meet-the-mp-who-actually-wants-to-know-what-works-20180302-p4z2ln.html
What drives me insane is the arrogance, Trumpian ignorance and raw stupidity of posters who suggest no one has a right to form a political party and promote policies in this country unless they are Labor or Liberal.
SNIP
Trog
‘…posters who suggest no one has a right to form a political party and promote policies in this country unless they are Labor or Liberal.’
This is a very common Greens mantra. But, like most Greens mantras, it is bullshit.
No-one says this. It is a Greens straw man. Of course the Greens have the right to form a party and to promote policies. Any group of fools can do it.
What posters DO have the right to do is to demonstrate to the Greens that there are REAL WORLD consequences for their political stupidity and destructiveness.
http://theconversation.com/revealed-the-extent-of-job-swapping-between-public-servants-and-fossil-fuel-lobbyists-88695?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=twitterbutton
Hey Trog, how is cap on rents and power bills policy coming along? Any idea how the federal Greens can implement these yet? How can you not be squirming over these infantile policy claims?
Dark, biblical work from David Rowe.
Oh dear, someone’s going to Hell.
Boerwar
What you and the other culprits have failed to observe is the global trend towards a populist right-wing agenda driven by inequality, nationalism, racist dog whistling, and promotion of a “dear leader” solution to economic problems. The “dear leader” always seems to be the owner of, or be controlled by, corporations.
The US, Britain, France, Germany, Russia, Turkey, a swag of other countries, with Australia trending in the same direction.
When you overlay this situation with climate change, and massive technological disruption in communications, robotics and AI, there is a need for strong political leadership to preserve democratic institutions.
The Neville Chamberlain approach just doesn’t cut it.
I am no great supporter of the Greens party in Australia or some Greens politicians, but we need progressive policies to be clearly articulated.
PS.
I want Shorten to win the next election, but to imply that his critics have underestimated him because he happens to have almost the same personal poll ratings as one of the most transparently hopeless politicians of our time is laughable.
Much as it pains me to say it, I can’t say I’m impressed at all with how the Greens are going about the Batman campaign. The sheer focus on Adani on an inner-city Melbourne seat strikes me as pretty bizarre, and while those “Labor’s Adani Mine” signs might not be outright lies,they certainly are stretching the truth well beyond what I’m comfortable seeing from a party that generally gets my first preference. I do think Labor deserve criticism for their wishy-washy stance on Adani, and wouldn’t at all bemoan the Greens doing so if it were just a small part of a campaign otherwise centered around issues more relevant to those in Batman, but this strikes me as too much.
Combined with that Bhathal HTV card, which seems, er, over-optimistic in it’s promises, to say the least (it reminds of the sort of “I’ll fix everything, don’t worry about the details, it’ll all be great” promises Abbott and Trump loved so much, which is not a comparison I enjoy making with Green candidates at all), I think the Greens have seriously misjudged the direction of their campaign here. Labor replacing Feeney with Ged Kearney seems to have spooked them, and they are throwing everything they have (including some dodgy untruths) into this race in order to compensate – but I feel like they’ve gone so far that it’ll ultimately be counter-productive. I won’t be surprised if Kearney actually wins reasonably comfortably.
Asha
Perhaps the Greens in Batman have little choice except to play the adani card. After all Ged is a really, really good candidate, with skills and competence AND policies, certain to agree with the Greens base.
they would be stupid to play the person ie attack Ged so going after Adani avoids them actually having to say much about Ged.
Just a thought since I am not there or even vaguely involved.
Mind you as an outside observer i think the greens are in a bit of a hole at the moment.
Labor should do well in Batman if they focus on Federal issues relevant to the electorate.
Sure Adani is important, and has a place but not to the exclusion of health, education, wages and conditions.
On environmental issues, what about the proposed changes to the marine park?
On Newspoll. I’m surprised its still only 53-47. I agree with some others here that’s it’s becoming difficult to imagine just what could possibly shift things further if the last few horror weeks for the Government haven’t.
PPM, on the other hand, is getting very bad for Turnbull. Last Newspoll had a decent drop for him as well, if I recall correctly. The one thing he still had going for him was his popularity compared to Shorten, and now they are almost level. I reckon another 54-46 or worse and he is gone.
Strikes me that the Greens in Batman are getting a bit desperate.
It explains the HTV but even more explains the “Labor’s Adani Mine” signs.
Their polling and on the ground intelligence must be pretty dire to resort to this sort of rubbish. I thought they were supposed to be appealing to intelligent voters but this is bottom of the barrel stuff.
Perhaps the absolutely chaotic state of the coalition is convincing some of their former voters that the time for playing around with a boutique political party has passed and its time to get serious about change.
At the start of last week, it was reported that JulieB urged the Coalition to bear down harder on the KillBill strategy. Seems Michaelia took that on board. Went well, didn’t it? 😆
Clem Attlee
I don’t spend much time following these policies, as I am not a Green.
The way to fix rents is probably some combination of removing negative gearing, increasing competition between landlords through greater transparency, decentralisation, increase in public housing stock, and a toughening of regulations over rental contracts.
The way to fix power bills is through democratisation of a distributed power grid, encouraging local and household development of generation and storage, and peer to peer energy trading. This will cut the incumbent gentailers out of the action and is already happening, despite rearguard battles being fought with proposals such as Turnbull’s NEG, Snowy 2.0, keeping fossil-fuelled power stations going with taxpayer subsidies, and allowing expiry of the RET.
J341983
Sunday, March 4, 2018 at 9.41 pm “Cue Rex to say that if it weren’t Shorten, , Any opposition will be +15-20 over Trumble by now”
There is no need for Rex to say that. Isn’t that obvious?
If you are a regular browser of PB, you would have noticed that I am not a supporter of Greens. Ask regular bloggers of PB.
ALP got 32.8% in a real polling in Tasmania. If that doesn’t shake you up, I don’t know what will?
LU, thanks.
The pic of the sad little homeless koalas symbolise the tragedy of the destruction.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/mar/05/global-deforestation-hotspot-3m-hectares-of-australian-forest-to-be-lost-in-15-years
Morning bludgers
Shari Markson who is going to be on qanda tonight, was on the Project last night and had this to say on the Barnaby saga
https://mobile.twitter.com/theprojecttv/status/970211067992289280
@Ven, I think the poll in Tasmania had more to do with the campaign by the pokie co’s than anything else. It was the same style of campaign used by them against Gillard.
I was surprised the Labor opposition took the stance they did. I agree with it, but the majority of Tasmanians didn’t.
Meanwhile Trump continues unabated on his agenda to wreck the joint.
All the grovelling by Turnbull didn’t help one iota.
Unfortunately Nicholas “Stop the boats” and “Stop the tax” wins elections in Australia
And I do not believe that Labor supports the premise of this government that the most effective form of regulation in a privatised economy is self regulation, supporting and under pinning trickle down economics
There are tax cuts stalled in the Senate
There is opposition to the reducing of penalty rates
There is support for wage increases before arbitration
The Greens, if they are going to retain any relevance post the hard working and successful Bob Brown need to prosecute issues not merely attack Labor (to the benefit of the Coalition the Greens now have a history of voting for particularly in the Victorian State parliament and in regards a price on carbon in the Federal Parliament) and perhaps, just perhaps change the public opinion which has given us Abbott and Turnbull being the current government
The irrelevance and the danger of the Greens are evidenced by your contribution
Including because there is no comment on the policies of the current government
Pokies hurt Labor in Tasmania for sure, but don’t let that hide the damage the prospect of having to govern with the Greens did.
Like the 2016 federal election, the memories of the last government was a massive disadvantage.
I was surprised the Labor opposition took the stance they did. I agree with it, but the majority of Tasmanians didn’t.
I feel pretty much the same. It was a ‘courageous’ stand (in the ‘Yes Minister’ sense) to take. I don’t like poker machines, not because I have any disdain for the pub-club scene but because they are toxic and I’ve seen the harm they can do. They should never have been legalised. That being said, I don’t think prohibition is the way at this stage, but some sort of harm minimisation.
So, Barnaby says he had “no choice” but to reveal his paternity doubts. Why, exactly? Because there were some vague rumours? Because a journalist was going to ask him about it?
Couldn’t he have just answered with the pollie-speak equivalent of “Fuck off”? I don’t think anyone, regardless of their political stripes, would have blamed him for refusing to dignify a question about the child’s paternity.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-03-04/barnaby-joyce-says-baby-paternity-is-grey-area/9507114
Asha Leu
I linked video above of Sharri Markson, journo who,has been following the story from the get go. Worth listening to
Pell’s committal hearing starts today. Regardless of his innocence or guilt of the accusations, I somehow see (and admit to schadenfreude) his circumstance as a consequence of his imo cold indifference to the damage done and lives of those in his pastoral care destroyed by those he supervised.
I mean to say that if his response to the sexual abuse by his clergy had been empathic and ruthless in the pursuit of offenders rather than a primarily legalistic course to protect the Church, the accusations against him might never have been raised, sustainable or not as they may turn out to be.
Trog,
And one more Green in the HOR will be able to do that, how?
IaD
‘… the accusations against him might never have been raised,…’
His alleged victims would have cut him some slack, right?
Nicholas is like all Greens: it is better to be right and utterly useless than to be half-right and effective.
Itza,
Well the Vatican did employ Pell as their chief money guy so his past efforts on behalf of the RC Church probably stood him in good stead when it came to getting the job.
So, on one side of the Atlantic we have idiot Trump destroying world trade.
On the other side of the Atlantic we have the Charge of the May Brigade destroying European trade.
In Australia Turnbull, Ciobo and Bishop are out and about selling more coal as their number one trade priority.
All good.
Asha
He is behaving erratically, IMO. Best just leave him alone on the Hey Dad! front for a while.
Pursuing ministerial malfeasance and its cover up in Senate Estimates is another matter.
Boerwar:
Agreed. He doesn’t seem to be acting rationally at all.
Nicholas also revealed himself to have a bit of a Punisher mentality earlier today as well.
Vote Green to give the Labor Party an electoral clip across the ear over something that they have no control over! Um, and just ignore the actions of the only Labor government who does and the actions they have taken which The Greens nominally agree with!
Hmm.
Nicholas says:
Monday, March 5, 2018 at 5:39 am
…”I hope the voters of Batman punish Labor for their lackadaisical and craven approach to reducing carbon pollution. And for their macroeconomic illiteracy, and their cruelty to vulnerable people”…
.
Wake up to yourself, for the love of God.
I thought Jewellery Bishop’s job was to sell Australian jewellery and fashion to the world?… And so get invited to all the best Runway shows. :\
Polling results always include the Coalition vote – being the vote for the Liberal Party and for the National Party and where they run candidates against each other except for where there is a sitting Member or Minister (what is the criteria?)
The very fact that we have a government which prosecuted “Stop the boats” and “Stop the tax” speaks to the age demographic of society and its bias, a bias which has delivered government to the Conservatives except for the Hawke/Keating period when Labor was entrenched in government for 11 years
The very fact that we have had Howard, Abbott and now Turnbull in Office is a commentary to the underlying presumption that the Party of big business and accordingly vested interest is the natural Party of government in Australia
That presumption is changing, courtesy of education replacing the blind faith of our older demographic , a blind faith in class structure from the Royal Fanily to our wealthy Captains of Industry and Commerce who because of their privilege are best placed to govern us
Vietnam and Conscripts as cannon fodder was the first event to change that entrenched class ruling scenario
Conscripts were killed in Vietnam – over 200 of them before other casualties and that resonated
And, just 50 years on, why?
Unfortunately the “War” has not yet been won, hence “Stop the boats” and the racist nature of some in our society, pandered to as it is including by attacking the judiciary and now the commentary on China
Divide and rule
But as Howard identified you can only divide so much before you alienate the majority
The policies of this government have alienated sufficient of our community
Around 53/47 is as good as you will get until Labor entrenches in government and commands wide and established support sufficient to change what the Establishment relies on to entrench itself in government
The age demographic of the electorate and its education leading to the ability to question will play their part
So we evolve
And we all attempt to live and survive in a changing and ever more complex world – a world the Establishment and wealth have little knowledge of – witness Turnbull, Bishop and Joyce for starters
Who does their life style and protection of it represent?
Selling FAI to HIH to make your money, being a Parakeet of High Fashion and associating accordingly with the benefits or carrying on as Joyce is?
Who associates with that?
This article on housing supply and Nimbyism highlights a real problem, but as usual the sensible response lies in the middle. Many people react to very high housing density (e..g 20 story towers) because their amenity (i.e. personal environmental quality) really is worse. Despite all our planning regulations and cumbersome systems, we have virtually no laws protecting people’s rights to things like views, air quality, sunlight and greenery. We also rarely require high rise developers to set aside enough parkland in the absence of backyards, or provide funds towards providing infrastructure to meet the transport demands high rise induces. Developers love high rise because it maximises land values, but the rest of us should question it.
There are much better solutions. Low density sprawl and high rise housing are not the only choices. Many of the cities rated with the highest standard of living are medium density, with buildings in the 3-4 story range. Paris for example, fits 12 million people in an area the size of Melbourne with hardly a building above 6 stories. Medium density allows sunlight to reach the bottom of the street, is less costly to build, and still provides enough density to support good public transport. What is happening now along the LRT route in Canberra is a good example. I would love somebody in Labor to take up the argument for denser development, but medium not high, and better quality.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-03-04/housing-costs-hit-young-and-poor-nimby-development/9507198
Four Corners tonight should be interesting.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-03-05/farmers-and-businesses-take-action-on-climate-change/9502320
All the smearing of Shorten by the Coalition and by the Greens is having an effect.
All the attempts by people like Kroger (this morning) and the Greens (over time) to sool Albo onto Shorten may have their effect.
Naturally Kroger (this morning) and the Greens talk about Shorten being ‘lucky’.
Coalition and Greens supporters would die rather than admit that Shorten: communicates extremely well at a face-to-face level, runs a good team of good individuals, harnesses their strengths well, develops good policies, and sells them effectively at elections.
If anyone wonders why Abbott and Turnbull have been under terrible pressure, it is because they are up against a superior performer.
The case of the Rise and Fall of Barnaby Joyce is an interesting one.
He is obviously a political Creative, to use the Knowledge Industry parlance, whose mind’s gears whir and click away incessantly. Very successful he has been, too. The upshot of which is that it had afforded him power and privilege.
It also appears to have been addictive. And he is finding it, the politics, the power and the passion, hard work to wean himself off.
I just hope it doesn’t all end in tears for Barnaby, Vikki and the baby.
Socrates
Unfamiliar with the other states and territories but NSW does have some provisions regarding views, sunlight and open space. Not as strong as one may like but they are there. Enforcement of them is however an entirely different kettle of fish.