Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

Malcolm Turnbull’s personal rating takes a tumble, but otherwise little change in the latest Newspoll.

The latest Newspoll has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged on last fortnight at 53-47, from primary votes of Coalition 37% (up one), Labor 38% (up one), Greens 9% (down one) and One Nation 7% (down one). Despite the stability on voting intention, Malcolm Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister has been slashed from 40-33 to 37-35. The Australian’s report relates that Turnbull is down two points on approval to 32%, and Shorten is down one to 33%, but the only hint we get about disapproval is that Turnbull’s result is worse than Shorten’s. More on that shortly. (UPDATE: Turnbull’s disapproval is up three to 57%, Shorten’s is up two to 56%). The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1657.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,078 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Gorks:

    I’m more interested in how the Greens think they can control rents. Or regulate electricity with their putative Member for Batman in federal parliament.

  2. I’m a member of the ALP, but also one that knows that we’re going to need to figure out how to be as much complementary as competitive with the Greens. What has always driven me insane with the Greens’ campaigns is that their promises are always very much coming from a place where they know they’ll never be in the position of governing in their own right.. ie, they’ll never have to deliver them.

    Their current MO is clearly to create wedges and divides among the progressive voting base, so as to force themselves into a position to either be direct or indirect parts of Labor’s governing arrangements and extract concessions. I get it, and I respect it.

    The fixation on Adani by The Greens, even though I’m personally opposed to it, doesn’t say an awful lot about their respect for voters. Talk about jobs (maybe even alternatives for those in the area who are wanting the mine to happen), talk about education, health care and the environment.

  3. davidwh

    Thanks. I’m surprised at that.

    Mr T can’t say that he is so far ahead in the PPM that Abbott’s -30 Newspolls isn’t a fair comparison to be judged against

  4. It looks like Cashgate grabbed the attention of those who follow politics but made no impact on the wider community. Still 53-47 a year out from the election, probably translated into 51-49 in an actual election in a year’s time.

    The margin needs to be wider.

  5. Also… this HAS be the closest Trumble and Bill have been in Newspoll for PPM, I think 4 or 5 was the closest before?

  6. Steve, that’s an old metric from back in the Morgan poll days. There was no ‘narrowing’ at the last election.

  7. “Dear God, how depraved is our politics now? We’ve got our former deputy prime minister publicly suggesting he’s been left holding a baby that isn’t his.
    Barnaby Joyce was last week shamed into resigning after he gave his lover, Vikki Campion, now pregnant, two taxpayer-funded jobs before leaving his wife for her.
    But having publicly humiliated his wife, he’s now humiliating his new partner.”
    In addition to torching Joyce, Bolt also goes after
    Turnbull
    Cash
    Dutton
    and asks the question
    “But it’s not just Joyce. That’s what’s so shocking about the vileness of this past month.
    I don’t know how our government ended up down in the gutter.”

    I have to agree. This last month, and in fact last six months since the dual citizenship debacle, has made Parliament and therefore democracy a figure of contempt.

    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/opinion/andrew-bolt/andrew-bolt-australia-is-drowning-in-gutter-politics/news-story/c342c8a0480a459b8f38c4d029fb6956

  8. Re the Greens corflute featured in Sprocket’s post @9:55PM: that corflute is a lie, pure and simple. The sort of thing I’d expect from the “Liberals”.

    Labor needs to complain to the AEC.

  9. I don’t know how our government ended up down in the gutter.

    Oh Andrew, come now. We all know that you know perfectly well that the Coalition have always been down in the gutter. You spend most of your time in there with em.

  10. What a difference 2.5 years of Malcolm makes

    Should have taken 2.5 minutes. And even now far too many morons still don’t get it.

  11. I am disappointed, the narrowing PPM is interesting, and may precede a shift away from 53-47, but I was hoping for a 54-46.

    It will be interesting to see how the PPM figures are reported.

  12. It will be interesting to see how the PPM figures are reported.

    Australian:

    The ongoing saga of the Barnaby Joyce love child scandal has dealt a further blow to Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership with his margin over Bill Shorten as preferred Prime Minister closing to within two points 37 per cent to 35 per cent.

    An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian has revealed that Mr Turnbull’s dominance over Mr Shorten has all but evaporated after leading comfortably by 14 points at the start of February.

    The shock result for Mr Turnbull comes as the former Nationals leader showed no sign of retreating into the shadows of the backbench, claiming in an another interview that he was not certain that the unborn child of his new partner and former staffer Vikki Campion is his.

  13. Barnaby not feeling the love from his colleagues

    “One Coalition MP told the Herald Sun he thought Mr Joyce was “a first-class c—” for his comments stating he was unsure if he’s the father of his partner Vikki Campion’s child, because he was travelling in Europe at the apparent time of conception.

    “I don’t want to kick him while he’s down,” a Nationals MP told the Herald Sun.

    “But this proves why he had to go — his judgment is appalling, bizarre and I think he has some real issues in his private life to sort out.” “

  14. See what I mean? Po’ Malcolm, having to suffer these fools in his government. Not his fault. Not his fault at all!

  15. Dutton / Andrews may be needed to “save the funiture”, my unnamed Lib sources say.

    I suppose they could not do any worse. Put this idea in the “worth a try” basket.

  16. [“One Coalition MP told the Herald Sun he thought Mr Joyce was “a first-class c—”]

    absolutely crude language!

  17. Diogenes @ #69 Sunday, March 4th, 2018 – 10:29 pm

    Barnaby not feeling the love from his colleagues

    “One Coalition MP told the Herald Sun he thought Mr Joyce was “a first-class c—” for his comments stating he was unsure if he’s the father of his partner Vikki Campion’s child, because he was travelling in Europe at the apparent time of conception.

    “I don’t want to kick him while he’s down,” a Nationals MP told the Herald Sun.

    “But this proves why he had to go — his judgment is appalling, bizarre and I think he has some real issues in his private life to sort out.” “

    Look, did BJ come back from Europe and go to Canberra, at that particular time, or not? Should be dead easy to prove.

    And, may I add, and Diogenes and rhwombat can be more specific, but the hormones that Vikki Campion would be transmitting to the unborn child, as a result of the stress she is being subject to by Barnaby Joyce especially, can have deleterious effects on that child later in it’s life. Mentally, behaviorally and physically.

  18. Thanks Holden.
    From here on I think the GG is going to play it straight, it isn’t bad luck on the part of Malcolm, but simply is he a capable prime minister?

  19. While watching Insiders this morning, I wondered if anyone was pining, for the years when Abbott was PM.
    He was bad, but predictably, consistently bad. Turnbull is worse.

  20. Does Joyce not know how to count? For an April birth conception would have to be after about July 9th. The second half of the year is longer than the first.
    That aside, it is bizarre in the extreme for him of all people to bring it up, especially as he claims he wants to protect VC. He is just nuts.

  21. I hope the voters of Batman see through this absolutely pathetic stunt by the Greens. Just how exactly is a vote for the Greens, potentially giving them a massive 2 of 150 seats actually going to stop anything? They are taking voters for fools and I really hope it backfires spectacularly on them.

  22. Matt,

    Ye have little faith. Don’t you realise that rents will never rise again if the Greens win Batman.

    Rising rents are a Lib-Lab conspiracy and Alex is going to ride into Canberra an avenging Green Angel and no one will have to pay more than a 5kg bag of organic mung beans for an inner urban 1 bedder close to nice cafes and restaurants with good wifi ever again!

  23. Matt

    Turnbull will so so overwhelmed by the sight of two Greens on the cross bench he will rush arounsd to the Black Wiggle and invite him to join the coalition.

  24. Stop the Greens attacks on pensions; because, you know, that is actually something they could and did have influence over in parliament!

  25. @Lee

    Your “great LNP” sure won’t be winning Batman. It is a little difficult to win a seat when you don’t even bother to run a candidate!

  26. BSF: “it’s bizarre in the extreme for him of all people to bring it up, especially as he claims he wants to protect VC. He is just nuts.” Others had brought it up, but he didn’t have to respond to it with any more than a curt “mind your own business”. Rather than nuts, I think he’s just deeply, deeply stupid.

  27. This is what Paul Kelly of the Oz wrote about Shorten.
    “The Opposition Leader’s character as an opportunist has rarely been so embarrassingly exposed than it has just now. ”
    Funny that hes becoming as popular as Turnbull.

  28. #Newspoll Preferred PM: Turnbull 37 (-3) Shorten 35 (+2) #auspol

    Rex will be devastated.

    Rex will never be devastated until we see:
    Newspoll Preferred PM: Shorten – everybody in the world except Turnbull; Turnbull – himself, just.

  29. “Rex will never be devastated until we see:
    Newspoll Preferred PM: Shorten – everybody in the world except Turnbull; Turnbull – himself, just.”

    That would be “everybody in the world except Turnbull, together with an unknown blog-poster who goes by the name of ‘Rex'”

    EDIT: maybe just everyone in Australia, given that Turnbull, Shorten and Rex aren’t well known in, say, Kazakhstan, Burkina Faso or Bolivia.

  30. Kill Bill is going swimmingly.

    Definition of an asshole: Public statement “The child may note be mine but I will not be asking for a paternity test”.

  31. Theyve tried Kill Bill for 2.5 years and none of it has worked.But they wont stop trying.Theyre as thick as Wayne/Lee.

  32. For those new to developments, a reminder of what putative Greens’ Member for Batman Bhathal will deliver in her (presumably) first term in office:

  33. I guess the obvious question is: what happens if Bhathal is elected AND for some unforeseeable reason the Adani mine gets up. Does that count as a broken promise?

  34. Matt31
    Lee/Wayne is a typical Liberal/s.As thick as shit.

    Nah, Lee/Wayne is a parody troll.

    It’s all they have left. The regular LNP trolls have given up trying to troll with a straight face.

    Ratsak,

    Damn fine clip!

  35. BuRP troll
    Bad Reverse-Parody Troll. One who, for the purpose of getting a reaction in a public web forum, pretends to be of the opinion that they argues against, but argues in a way so over the top or completely missing the point that they reveal their own stupidity or ignorance.

    Sounds familiar.

  36. “It will be interesting to see how the PPM figures are reported.”
    I imagine the PPM will be ignored by the ABC and Katharine Murphy.

  37. Confessions:

    For those new to developments, a reminder of what putative Greens’ Member for Batman Bhathal will deliver in her (presumably) first term in office:

    So she’s a doctor’s wife. That seems to be a prime Teal Green demographic.

    I assume the “local schools” are private ones.

    “Holding the next government to account.” So the current omnishambles is getting a free ride?

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