9.28pm. “I don’t think there are any federal implications here” – Eric Abetz.
9.22pm. The ABC is now calling 13 seats for the Liberals, whose 2.16 quotas in Denison make them certain of a second seat. The only question for them is whether they make it to fourteen by winning the last seat in Franklin ahead of the Greens.
8.57pm. Similarly, Greens member Rosalie Woodruff is less vulnerable to leakage in Franklin than the third Liberal, who will presumably be Nic Street.
8.53pm. The Greens aren’t quite gone in Bass: their member, Andrea Dawkins, has 6.8% with the other Greens on 2.5%. The first Labor candidate, Michelle O’Byrne, is bang on a quota and will have nothing to bequeath as preferences. That leaves the second strongest Labor candidate, Jennifer Houston, on 3.7%, and needing a very tight flow of preferences from the other Labor candidates, who collectively add up to 6.3%. So while Labor has 1.62 quotas to the Greens’ 0.56, they are more vulnerable to preference leakage.
8.39pm. Clear results are Liberal three and Labor two in Braddon and Lyons, and I just about think you can say Labor two, Liberal two and Greens one in Denison, with 59.4% counted. The two question marks are Labor versus the Greens in Bass, where the Liberals have three and Labor one, with Labor leading for the last spot; and Liberal versus the Greens in Franklin, from a base of Liberal two and Labor two, which is very hard to call.
8.31pm. A question now of following Denison and seeing that the Liberal quota results holds, which is presently 2.17 with 57.2% counted.
8.22pm. Nearly half the vote counted now in Denison, and the Liberals are keeping their head comfortably above two quotas. Antony isn’t quite ready to call it though. Very likely result though is status quo, with Ella Haddad replacing Madeleine Ogilvie as second Labor member.
8.17pm. Very tight in Franklin, with 55.5% counted. The Liberals are on 2.86 quotas; the Greens on 0.88; the Liberals will presumably get Shooters preferences; the Greens might get boosted by leakage. Complicated.
8.10pm. Denison at 37.2% counted, the Liberal vote dropping but only very slowly, now at 2.15 quotas.
8.09pm. Now they’re back up again, but the Liberals aren’t out of it. 50.6% counted.
8.08pm. The Greens have lost ground in the latest update from Franklin, meaning the Liberals are not out of the hunt for a third seat and an overall result of fourteen.
8.03pm. Whoever gets the second Labor seat in Lyons will do it from a low share of the vote, with Rebecca White unsurprisingly dominating. Janet Lambert on 2.2% leads Jen Butler on 1.9%, but it really all depends what White’s preferences do.
8.00pm. 37.6% counted in Franklin, still looking likely to be Liberal 2, Labor 2, Greens 1, which is to say Labor gaining a seat from the Liberals. Nic Street the likely Liberal loser, with Will Hodgman and Jacqui Petrusma re-elected. Alison Standen leads Kevin Midson for second Labor seat.
7.56pm. With 25.8% counted, the Greens don’t look to be registering the required improvement. So Liberal three, with all incumbents re-elected; Labor two, with Michelle O’Byrne re-elected and likely to be joined by Jennifer Houston, unseating Greens incumbent Andrea Dawkins.
7.51pm. The Denison count is now on 28.2%, and the Liberals are on 2.18 quotas – not quite ready to call it though, as they’ve been trending down.
7.48pm. Denison “difficult” for a third Labor seat, says Antony Green. When it gets impossible, the election result can be called.
7.47pm. Kim Booth on the ABC confident they are doing well on preferences in Franklin.
7.42pm. Now well advanced in Franklin at 24.2%, and the Greens have strengthened and look ahead for the last seat, indicating a result of Labor two, Liberal two and Greens one. If so, it’s down to Denison needing to give the Liberals a second seat to get them to 13, and that’s certainly how it’s looking at present, though still only 11.8% counted.
7.40pm. So the most likely result for the Greens is that they retain only Franklin and Denison. If Labor indeed only get two in Franklin, the second seat looks a tight race between Alison Standen and Kevin Midson.
7.37pm. Interest results from the Labor ticket in Denison: Tim Cox not doing well, fourth on 5.2%; Ella Haddad leading incumbent Madeleine Ogilvie in the race for second seat. Scott Bacon clearly the leader.
7.36pm. Things starting to move now in Denison, up to 10.3% counted, and now the Greens vote is down there as well, though not enough to trouble Cassy O’Connor. More importantly though, the Liberals are looking on course for two seats there. Up to 18.2% counted in Franklin, and the Liberals still in contention for a third seat there. Bottom line is that it’s looking increasingly hard to see the Liberals losing their majority, unless we see a rapid change in Denison in particular.
7.35pm. Still close between Joan Rylah and Roger Jaensch to get the third Liberal seat in Braddon, with Jeremy Rockliff and Adam Brooks clearly re-elected. Newcomer Anita Dow leads incumbent Shane Broad on the Labor ticket, although both appear likely to win.
7.33pm. Three Liberal incumbents in Bass looking good, Michelle O’Byrne to be re-elected for Labor, second Labor seat probably going to Jennifer Houston on 3.1% to second-placed Adam Gore on 2.0%, Greens still looking sickly on 8.4% overall.
7.32pm. Now up to 15.0% in Franklin, and it still looks tight as to whether the Liberals retain their three seats. If they do so, they could end up on 14, assuming they retain two in Denison.
7.30pm. More numbers now from Denison, up to 4.1% counted, and the result is looking status quo, which is good news for the Liberals. Again though, early days there.
7.29pm. Antony Green detects steady Liberal vote and a big transfer from the Greens to Labor. But again, the qualification must be made that this is mostly rural, with practically nothing of Denison. Of the Greens’ prospects in Bass, Kevin Bonham says there “might be hope” for incumbent Andrea Dawkins if she “can stay fairly close to Labor”.
7.27pm. The fastest count is Lyons, now up to 14.1%, and still nothing to disturb the three Liberal, two Labor picture. In the race for the second Labor seat, Janet Lambert has 2.2%, Jen Butler 1.9%. Other candidates may have locally concentrated support bases that we’ll find out about later.
7.25pm. 5.0% counted in Bass, Greens looking very unlikely to retain their seat unless there’s a very different dynamic in Launceston. All told, the three central/northern electorates are all looking very much like three Liberal and two Labor. Franklin starting to gain momentum with 9.8% counted, and the Liberals are not out of the hunt for a third seat there, with the caveat remaining that they could wash out there on Hobart results. If so, the question is if they hold a second seat in Denison, where it’s still early days with 0.7% counted.
7.22pm. Now up to 5.7% counted in Braddon, still consistent with the Liberals losing a seat as expected, but the swing against them is modest. JLN now on 7.4%, good but not good enough.
7.20pm. The Mercury has a report up on that exit poll pointing to 13 Liberal seats. It turns out to have small samples of 250 per electorate:
The results showed Labor benefited from a significant swing in Franklin of 18.3 per cent, while the Liberals lost 13.3 per cent in that seat. The swing towards Labor in Braddon was 8 per cent, with the Liberals — who currently hold four seats in that electorate — down 5.4 per cent. The Liberals were slightly down in Lyons – by 3.3 per cent – with Labor up 4.1 per cent and the Greens, who had been hoping to secure a seat in that electorate through the party’s anti-salmon farming expansion stance, down 1.4 per cent. The Greens were up slightly in Bass – by 0.5 per cent – where incumbent Greens MP Andrea Dawkins is seen to be under pressure to hold on to her seat. Labor and the Liberals were up 0.5 and 0.4 per cent respectively. In the Hobart seat of Denison, the Liberals were up 1.6 per cent, Labor up by 2 per cent, and the Greens held steady.
7.17pm. Now up to 4.6% in Franklin, Liberals still looking stronger than expected. But what we are perhaps seeing here is the trend of strong rural support for the Liberals, coming in as these small booths report early. That could very well get overwhelmed when Hobart booths come in.
7.15pm. Up to 2.3% now in Franklin, and there is now the anticipated swing away from the Liberals, although it’s fairly small at this stage. Such as it is though, it’s consistent with them losing a result to Labor, although not by a great margin.
7.12pm. At last some good news for the Greens, who have a great result for the one seat in so far in Denison, with the Liberals heavily down. This is extremely early days, and may be due to a quirky swing calculation. But for what it’s worth, it’s consistent with a narrative of Denison looking a big dangerous for the Liberals, whose fear would be falling to one seat.
7.11pm. Up to 8% counted in Lyons, situation unchanged there. The one thing that can be said with certainty is that the rural vote for the Liberals is clearly very strong.
7.08pm. A new booth has just come in from Franklin, leaving that result looking status quo, contrary to expectations Labor would pick up a seat from the Liberals. However, we’re still only talking 1.4% counted here. Jacquie Petrusma slightly ahead of Nic Street if the Liberals do only win two (Will Hodgman obviously home and hosed for the first seat).
7.08pm. Lyons up to 5.6%, still nothing to disturb the impression of a status quo result of Liberal three, Labor two. If so, only question is who wins second Labor seat, with Jen Butler and Janet Lambert currently neck and neck.
7.05pm. Very early results, but Kevin Bonham suggests that seemingly strong result for Greens in Franklin actually has them down 4% on a booth-matched basis.
7.03pm. Now even the swing against the Liberals in Braddon has gone, with Labor and the Greens both down, but only 2.9% counted.
7.01pm. Lyons count up to 4.1%, and still looking extremely good for the Liberals. Liberal incumbents Mark Shelton, Guy Barnett and Rene Holding looking strong, Rebecca White obviously not in trouble, too early to say who might win a second Labor seat.
6.59pm. Greens down across the board, JLN about where the polls said they would be, maybe a little better in Braddon and worth keeping an eye on there.
6.58pm. Roger Jaensch just slightly ahead of Joan Rylah in the race for a third Liberal seat in Braddon. The Liberals are still down on the primary vote there, in line with expectations they can’t repeat their win of four seats. But they’re still up in Bass and Lyons.
6.56pm. A third booth in Lyons maintains the noted trend.
6.55pm. So while it’s very early days, there are some early indications that the Liberals are doing well in rural areas.
6.54pm. A second booth has come through from Lyons, the Liberals are still up, the Greens still down, and Labor still steady.
6.53pm. The Greens vote appears to have halved in the St Helens booth in Lyons, where there are 400 votes.
6.52pm. A less good result for the Liberals has come through from Braddon, where they are now down 5% on the primary vote, with Labor treading water and the JLN starting well at 9.5%. However, the very earliest results in Bass and Lyons are favourable for them. Mark Shelton has done particularly well in the first Lyons booth, which is St Helens.
6.46pm. Very early indications of Braddon from two booths are that the Liberals are almost holding up, and the Jacqui Lambie Network is doing pretty well at around 9%. Still very early days from unrepresentative rural booths though.
6.42pm. Kevin Bonham calculates swings off the early booths (probably only one or two) in Bass of 5% to the Liberals and 3.5% to Labor, with the Jacqui Lambie Network failing to fill the Palmer United void.
6.38pm. Liberal vote actually up slightly in the Lady Barron vote, on Flinders Island in Bass, which is coming up on the ABC now. I believe there are 336 votes here. Apparently no booth results no the TEC site?
6.20pm. An exit poll, apparently for Southern Cross News, predicts 13 seats for the Liberals, nine for Labor, two for the Greens, and one up for grabs between Labor and the Greens.
6pm. Polls have closed. It shouldn’t take long for us to get results from smaller booths, particularly in Lyons, where the Liberals need three seats as a given.
Sue Hickey (Lib candidate Denison) giving the party hierarchy a well-deserved serve for the gun policy.
The ALP have a swing to them of 8.4% and the greens have a swing against of 7% unfortunately the swing to Labor seems mostly from the Greens. The Libs seem to be holding their vote. The Poker Machine lobby is very strong.
Libs in line to a narrow win.
The election circumscribes Abetz’s uselessness.
His state counterparts may win two majorities.
His lot cannot win one lower house seat.
Surely fed Libs have to try and do something to win seats in Tasmania next year.
What’s the chances for Labor doing as well in the urban areas as the Liberals are in the rural areas?
Will the Greens blame Bill Shorten and Labor? They usually do.
Well, this is shaping up to be a very depressing result.
Shellbell.
I would assume Abtez is his usual toxic self. I can’t watch him. It’s AFLW and test cricket for me.
I always thought Andrea Dawkins was a perplexing choice for a casual vacancy in Bass (being that the others were shoved out of the way for the countback) – especially replacing the very, very different Kim Booth – and it seems like that’s being borne out here. It seems like it’s time the Tasmanian Greens had a good, hard look at themselves – Cassy O’Connor not cutting through as leader is no great surprise, and again, seems like they’re now seeing the consequences.
Rosalie Woodruff seemed like a more sensible choice for the Franklin countback (and has been impressive since) and so it’s no surprise to me that she’s held up relatively well. Might be time for her to step up as leader and give Helen Burnet a go in Denison sometime during this term.
Rossmcg says:
Saturday, March 3, 2018 at 8:01 pm
Will the Greens blame Bill Shorten and Labor? They usually do.
🙂
Abetz is a bloody dreadful choice for the ABC coverage. Him continually getting into arguments with the Labor panellist about things that aren’t election results means I wind up muting the damn thing and missing the occasional moments where it might tell me something useful.
Also William – Andrea Dawkins is not a Liberal candidate in Bass. (the 7.56pm update)
Asha Leu says:
Saturday, March 3, 2018 at 8:02 pm
Well, this is shaping up to be a very depressing result.
What would you expect? The Gs campaign against Labor…against the governing party their own supporters most strongly favour. The Gs have campaigned against themselves. They could have campaigned against the Liberals….but No! That would imply supporting Labor, something the Gs are incapable of expressing.
The Gs have shown how absolutely useless they are. When the question was “Should we change the Government?” the Gs campaigned to change the Opposition. They are lucky to win any seats at all. They ran interference for the Liberals…they can be happy with that.
Dawkins sounding bloody dreadful on the ABC: basically suggesting that without an environmental issue more exciting than salmon farms she had nothing to talk about so had to resort to transparency and pokies. Booth was never anything like that hapless.
Rebecca
There was a time, years ago, when on election night the partisan commentators managed to be reasonably neutral so we could have a good insight into what was going on.
Sadly no more.
Why you would even choose to have a divisive figure like Abetz is a worry. But I guess if it has to be a federal liberal the options are limited.
Rossmcg: David Bushby would have been a gentlemanly and gracious choice for the ABC coverage. Abetz has too much to defend.
I am proudly Tasmanian – I disown Eric Abetz
The amount of money that has gone to the Libs campaign from vested interests has been beyond disgraceful.
Vale Vanessa Goodwin
Respect to the campaign of Rebecca White
Why would the ABC have Abetz on as a commentator? Truly mind-boggling.
yeah wtf was that Andrea Dawkins interview? It made me cringe.
Erica distracts conversation from reality
Rebecca says:
Saturday, March 3, 2018 at 8:11 pm
Dawkins sounding bloody dreadful on the ABC: basically suggesting that without an environmental issue more exciting than salmon farms she had nothing to talk about so had to resort to transparency and pokies. Booth was never anything like that hapless.
…point is….there are radical changes occurring in the Tasmanian environment, changes that cry out for a change of Government. But the Gs cannot campaign against the LNP. They only campaign against Labor. So they try to raise hell against the party that is not in office. Terrific.
The actual story is there are few things BUT the environment to talk about…but the Gs have nothing to say…..totally fucking useless pretenders, that they are.
Meher
who is the Labor woman? I only heard a bit of her before Abetz interrupted so switched off. I guessed she was a federal MP. And of course they are in short supply for the Libs in Tasmania.
Confessions @ #67 Saturday, March 3rd, 2018 – 8:17 pm
Um, because he is the most senior Tasmanian Liberal politician that is not contesting the election, maybe?
Julie Collins ………….she would heard enough of Eric to feel angry
meher baba @ #65 Saturday, March 3rd, 2018 – 8:15 pm
Meher baba,
You have obviously forgotten Bushby’s inglorious performance in Senate Estimates towards Penny Wong then. ‘Gentlemanly’ it wasn’t.
Muskiemp @ #52 Saturday, March 3rd, 2018 – 7:59 pm
Rebecca White for Tasmanian Premier!… At the next election. 🙂
I guess the Tas election outcome will be hailed by the Canberra press gallery as another reset for Malcolm Turnbull.
Confessions
And another blow for Shorten.
According to the Guardian
“We’re getting information that there’s a reasonably steady trickle from Hodgman’s number one vote to Rosalie” Woodruff.
rossmcg:
Undoubtedly.
Taz
My money would be on 2-2-1 in Franklin.
Denison is, sadly IMO, also looking like 2-2-1, but not 100% certain yet.
Faint outside chance of Libs falling below 3 in Lyons.
Lambie concedes her team has come up short. Actually come up with nothing. Well done Tasmania.
Analysis of the effect of the poker machine policy will be interesting.
Certainly a policy that might attract voters to go from green to Labor but I suspect it has had a negative effect with some of Labor’s core constituency
rossmcg @ #81 Saturday, March 3rd, 2018 – 8:43 pm
She was going to support the Liberals if they fell short and she had the Balance of Power!
Is this the beginning of the end of The Greens?
Born in Tasmania. Begin their death spiral in Tasmania.
OC: Labor has done well. No need to rethink its policies after this election.
Yes losing is always a good result
Come on OC, be realistic. One term governments are just not a thing in Australia. To paraphrase Kerry Packer, you usually only get one Campbell Newman or Ted Baillieu/Denis Napthine in a lifetime.
“in 1987 Packer made a fortune at the expense of disgraced tycoon Alan Bond. It was widely reported that he sold Bond the Nine Network at the record price of A$1.05 billion in 1987, and then bought it back three years later for a mere A$250 million, when Bond’s empire was collapsing. Packer later quipped; “You only get one Alan Bond in your lifetime, and I’ve had mine”.
A good night then for deathriders, OC ?
Just came in late on ABC of an ALP member admitting that people don’t like being told how to spend their money. Refreshing
Come on OL, you like putting a few bob in the machines down at Nowra
appears liberals 12 greens 1 labor 10
Franklin last seat between libs and greens with greens more likely
thus libs 12 labor 10 greens 2
so denison fight for last seat alp with libs….. prob libs
s0 13 libs alp 10 gr 2 probable result…..
best results for libs 14
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-trade-nafta/trump-sours-flagging-nafta-talks-with-steel-trade-war-threats-idUSKCN1GE2E0
Trump should be careful….a trade war might spark a downturn in the global economy….could be just what he has cooked up with Putin…
whoops…wrong thread 🙂
Oakshott,
The Poker Machine lobby are very strong. It only needs to swing a couple of percent. Look what they did to the Gillard Govt., you know how Wilkie blamed Labor for pulling out of the policy, while he lost not one once of blood, just sat back and let the ALP take the hits.
Despite all the dollars spent by the gambling lobby the Liberals went backwards … worth thinking about that. On the future of the Greens – the Australian has been conducting a jihad against them for the past decade … with support apparently from some supporters of the ALP apparently. They are clearly here to stay as a minority party with support from a demographic that leans left but is not at ease with ALP culture. In the ACT the population doesn’t like majority government – has regularly voted in an ALP/ Green government that has worked well
Yes of course, it was the poker machine lobby that did for Gillard, nothing at all to do with her own backstabbing treachery and incompetence. Although, ultimately I suppose, it was the federal Labor caucus that did for Gillard, returning to Kevin Rudd to save some of the furniture.
Remember Kevin Rudd? The only federal Labor leader to actually win a majority of seats since 1993.
It’s all over: 3-3 for the Libs in the 2 northern seats 3 in Lyons and 2-2 in the southern seats = a 13-12 majority.
The Tasmanian election result delivers a valuable learning for Labor: adopt prominent Greens policies as your own and your primary vote will go up! The poker machines policy was a bold progressive gambit from a party that typically eschews such things. Unfortunately the absurdly loose campaign finance laws meant that this election result was essentially bought by the industry whose ill-gotten profits were threatened by the Greens-Labor policy. But if Labor adopt more Greens policies as their own, their primary vote will go up. Labor can take heart from that.
The second key learning is that campaign finance laws need to be extremely strict. Constitutional reform is required so that legislatures are free to enact very tough restrictions on campaign finance – including complete bans on donations to political parties and lobby groups and instituting 100 percent public funding of those organizations.
Fargo61 @ #95 Saturday, March 3rd, 2018 – 9:20 pm
Remember Kevin Rudd the person who delivered the biggest electoral hiding to Labor since 1930?
Nicholas @ #97 Saturday, March 3rd, 2018 – 9:27 pm
The horseshit is strong with you tonight.
Greens have delivered a good dose of irrelevancy to themselves.
Well said GG. But lets not turn this discussion to another feud. 🙂