Essential Research and BludgerTrack deluxe

Introducing a bigger and better BludgerTrack. Also featured: a status quo result from Essential Research, at least so far as the major parties are concerned.

First up, BludgerTrack has proudly moved into the twenty-first century with a new fully interactive feature, offering hitherto hidden detail on state-level primary votes and the seat result probability estimates that are used to calculate the final result. Also included are the leadership rating trends, and there’s a facility for viewing raw opinion data throughout the current term.

The results as shown are updated to include the ReachTEL and Essential Research results, and the former has had a particularly big impact on voting intention, the primary numbers being even worse for the Coalition than the headline two-party result suggested. However, despite the 1% lurch to Labor on two-party preferred, there is little change to the seat projection, as the Coalition has had some stronger numbers lately from all-important Queensland, and Labor was largely punching into thin air with its gains in New South Wales and Victoria this week.

Then there’s the regular fortnightly result for Essential Research, which is notable in having both major parties at the low ebb of 35% on the primary vote, with the Coalition down one on a fortnight ago and Labor down two. This helps One Nation recover two points to 8%, with the Greens steady on 10%. Also unchanged is Labor’s two-party lead of 53-47.

Further questions relate mostly to the Barnaby Joyce situation, with a question conceived before his resignation on Friday finding 34% wanting him to leave parliament, 26% thinking he should resign as leader but stay in parliament, and only 19% thinking he should remain leader of the Nationals. Forty-four per cent expressed approval of “media reporting on politicians’ private affairs”, with 41% disapproving.

The poll also finds more respondents than not in favour not only of the ban on sex between ministers and their staff, but also on politicians having extra-marital sex altogether, and between managers and staff in the workplace. Twenty-two per cent even favoured a “ban on sex between workmates in general”, with 55% opposed. A rather particular question on health insurance policy finds 48% supporting removing the subsidy on private health insurance premiums and using the funds to include dental care in Medicare, with 32% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,634 comments on “Essential Research and BludgerTrack deluxe”

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  1. It is all so transparent…Barnaby and Vicki are up their necks in trouble with her jobs, his perks, and the ‘partner’ status. This paternity thing and ‘we were just accidental bonk friends ‘is a hasty and panicked historic rewrite to cover their asses.
    Of course done with all the tact, taste and sensitivity BJoyce is known for.

  2. Of course Barnaby is just following the example of Tony who for many years claimed a love baby which ended up looking remarkably like his best mate

  3. MrDenmore: Look, my private life should not be the preserve of media speculation but let me first muse publicly on who might be the father of my partner’s unborn child, while casting aspersions about her character and keeping alive a story I apparently want killed. pic.twitter.com/Vfy4ZrlAoB

  4. Ms White and Tas Labor would be wise to quickly accept and admit they went too far with the pokies ban and announce the better targetted policy of $1 maximum bets.
    I’m sure the public would embrace the policy calibration.

  5. Barnaby doesnt know if hes the father of Vikki Campions baby.Thats what hes been doing to the country.F…king about, not knowing what the hell hes doing.
    Apparently Vikki Campion said to him about the baby.”Barnaby! When you eat a tin of beans and you fart,you dont know which bean it was.”

  6. Perhaps Barnaby is hoping to drag one or more ministers / MPs/ journos / others into this mess.

    Right now, given the miserable future he is facing, Barnaby probably doesn’t care much if any of his colleagues ends up in the mire.

  7. This latest cringeworthy media focus on Joyce I think could be the last straw for the conservatives who I’d expect will move to ‘disappear’ him from the scene.
    I expect a retirement from politics in the not too distant future.

  8. Yep but on the other hand perhaps this latest doozy is a look over there! distraction from something bigger. Say another Mueller drop?

    Walter ShaubVerified account@waltshaub
    14m14 minutes ago
    Can you imagine if Obama had said this? The reaction would have been loud and potentially dangerous. But we’re all going to be told we’re overreacting to what this madman said.

  9. There were half a dozen luridly green olives, the sort of cheap stuff that comes from a tin, a wonderful parmesan cheese (perfectly aged) and a greasy mound of sliced slow-cooked capsicum, which was slimier than Barnaby Joyce at a Young Nats convention.

    https://thewest.com.au/lifestyle/rob-broadfield/rob-broadfield-review-they-called-it-no-menu-but-really-its-no-good-ng-b88741380z

    When suggestions of Barnaby’s conduct say it all about a shit restaurant.

  10. Confessions

    What a restaurant review !! Also from your link…..

    “……….The fig had been rendered to mucus, like a blob of dead jellyfish in a slick of light crude. It bore no relation to fig. The viscous, greasy puddle, in which the snotty lump of former fig was drowning, defied explanation. Sewing machine oil? Personal lubricant? There was worse to come. “

  11. Re the latest Barnaby Joyce story.

    Mark Kenny touched on this late last week when he commented in a story that liberals were pushing rumours re the very matter of paternity to anyone who would listen in Canberra.

    I would suggest this has all the markings of the dark art of internal coalition / nationals politics at play here. Just where this will end up and who will be dragged into this swamp will be very interesting.

    Retribution, revenge and payback may well be brutal.

    Cheers.

  12. Oakeshott Country Sunday, March 4th, 2018 – 2:26 pm Comment #3347

    Know your constituents:
    When Rusty bought the Rabbitohs he was going to replace the cheer girls with drummers AND ban pokies.

    I had a friend who worked there and went to pick him up one night. One of the tasks, after the doors were closed, was to go around with brickies wheelbarrows to empty the pokies.

    The contents of 1 pokie into an empty wheelbarrow and wheeled off to be weighed. The wheelbarrows were heavy and just moving one bloody hard work.

  13. After a run in with the King St Wharf restaurant Mathew Evans left the SMH and became the gourmet farmer in Tasmania of all places

  14. OC we already have a nanny state. Take heroin, many people enjoy it and use it casually. Unfortunately, some people go on to become addicts. The government bans heroin for the damage it does to the few who become addicts.

    Same with poker machines. Some can cope with them, some become addicted to them with the resultant carnage that comes with any addiction.

    Anyway, pokies are now superseded by gambling apps so banning pokies will make no difference as people can now become addicted to gambling through apps on their phones.

  15. OC:

    What a shame for NSW.

    I love Broadfield’s restaurant reviews. Even the good ones are written in highly engaging and imaginative form.

  16. Just looked back and found this comment when the drummers replace the rabittoettes
    “What a poofter”

  17. I think the ban of medical heroin was precipitated by numerousarmed robberies on NSW hospitals in the 1960s

  18. Although I am critical of the Greens for pretending to be an environmental party, I have to pay credit where credit is due: it turns out that Cassy O’Connor of the Tasmanian Greens supports at least one environmental policy that her Federal counterparts don’t – a sustainable population policy …

    https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2018/01/unlike-fake-federal-counterparts-tassie-greens-talk-sense-population-policy/

    I predict this woman will go far. Possibly New Zealand 🙂

  19. With the exception of the slur against his office staff I think Shorten, would be quite happy with last week.
    He knew that at some point the Qld trip with Cousins would come out, and the video of him with the CFMEU was nothing new. He has had a lot of press, which will continue.

    Labor are grappling with policy issues, Adani and company tax, and sometimes it isn’t pretty, while the government is purely focused on leadership and politics, and doing poorly at it.

  20. PeeBee

    It is not just about the people using them. What about all the people that don’t and the destruction of atmosphere in what had previously been pleasant places to socialise ?

  21. PeeBee @ #3156 Sunday, March 4th, 2018 – 3:08 pm

    OC we already have a nanny state. Take heroin, many people enjoy it and use it casually. Unfortunately, some people go on to become addicts. The government bans heroin for the damage it does to the few who become addicts.

    Same with poker machines. Some can cope with them, some become addicted to them with the resultant carnage that comes with any addiction.

    Anyway, pokies are now superseded by gambling apps so banning pokies will make no difference as people can now become addicted to gambling through apps on their phones.

    Heroin and pokies. Can’t think of a more stupid way to waste ones money.

  22. Poroti,

    Exactly. Get rid of the bloody things. It is one of Jeff Kennets lasting legacy (apart from selling off many of the school sites) was to introduce them into Victoria.

  23. Player One

    That’s the big question that must be asked and answered. What is a sustainable population and how do we make sure we don’t exceed it ?

  24. Jake TapperVerified account@jaketapper
    10m10 minutes ago
    POTUS in his speech at the Gridiron Club tonight said North Korea had “called up” and asked to begin talks but that he responded with “you have to denuke” first. Asking for more information as to what he meant —

  25. poroti @ #3163 Sunday, March 4th, 2018 – 3:18 pm

    PeeBee

    It is not just about the people using them. What about all the people that don’t and the destruction of atmosphere in what had previously been pleasant places to socialise ?

    My local RSL are transitioning to a more socialised setting by moving their pokies to a smaller room and utilising the new space to extend the dining and social areas. Word is the number of consistent pokie users is dropping while the dining patronage is booming.

  26. Oakshott County
    It is too late to shut the gate after the brain has been altered. It is the harm done by pokies to the people who are playing them, addicted or not, that worries me.

    These sort of manipulations should not be in a place for recreation and leisure, other than a casino. A casino is a place dedicated to gambling and that is the appropriate place for them, if there is any at all.

    If the pokies were redesigned to remove all psychological manipulation techniques, e.g. put them in plain packaging, then the clubs could have as many as they want.

  27. Poroti, he was concerned that Victorian money was heading into NSW towns along the Murray.

    In those days bus loads of oldies went there for the day to blow their pensions. Damage was limited as it was an occasional activity.

  28. Song for Barnaby

    OLD MAN’S LAMENT

    One morning out walking, out roving and rambling
    Down by the cool river I joggled along
    I heard an old man making sad lamentation
    About rocking the cradle and a child not his own

    Hi-ho, Hi-ho
    Lie there my laddie, lie easy, lie easy
    Perhaps your own daddy might never be known
    And it’s weary I am with weeping and sobbing
    And rocking a cradle and a child not my own.

    I’m sorry, my neighbours, I’ve married this fair one
    She favours the neighbours and none of her own.
    She goes out every night, goes to bars, goes to parties
    Leaves me rocking the cradle and it’s none of my own.

    Hi-ho, Hi-ho etc…
    Lie there my laddie, lie easy, lie easy
    Perhaps your own daddy might never be known
    And it’s weary I am with weeping and sobbing
    And rocking a cradle and it’s none of my own.

    So come all ye young men who want to get married
    Take my advice, leave the womens alone.
    For it’s by the Lord Harry, if ever you marry,
    She’ll leave you rocking the cradle and it’s none of your own

    Hi-ho, Hi-ho etc…
    Lie there my laddie, lie easy, lie easy
    Perhaps your own daddy might never be known
    And it’s weary I am with weeping and sobbing
    And rocking a cradle and it’s none of my own.

    Source: Buffy Sainte-Marie, LP, It’s my way!

    or this variant
    THE OLD MAN’S LAMENT

    On a bright summer’s evening I chanced to go roving
    Down by the clear river I rollicked along.
    I heard an old man making sad lamentation;
    He was rocking the cradle and the child not his own.

    CHORUS:
    Hi ho, hi ho, my laddie lie aisy
    For perhaps your own daddy might never be known.
    I’m sitting and sighing and rocking the cradle,
    And nursin’ the baby that’s none of my own.

    When first that I married your inconstant mother
    I thought myself lucky to be blessed with a wife.
    But for my misfortune, sure I was mistaken
    She’s proved both a curse and a plague on my life.

    She goes out every night to a ball or a party
    And leaves me here rockin’ he cradle alone.
    The innocent laddie he calls me his daddy
    But little he knows that he’s none of my own.

    Now come all ye young men that’s inclined to get married
    Take my advice and let the women alone.
    For by the Lord Harry, if ever you marry
    They’ll leave you with a baby that’s none of your own.
    (or “and swear it’s your own”.)

  29. PeeBee @ #3381 Sunday, March 4th, 2018 – 3:21 pm

    Poroti,

    Exactly. Get rid of the bloody things. It is one of Jeff Kennets lasting legacy (apart from selling off many of the school sites) was to introduce them into Victoria.

    Kirner, Victoria’s first – and so far only – female premier, also introduced poker machine gambling to the state. Her government passed legislation in 1991 to enable a duopoly to establish poker machine venues in local hotels and clubs.
    http://theconversation.com/pokies-in-victoria-joan-kirners-difficult-legacy-42689

  30. Barnbaby Joyce continues to be the gift that keeps on giving….
    .
    “WA Nationals in crisis over Barnaby Joyce claims

    THE WA Nationals are in deep crisis, with party president James Hayward investigating whether there was a secret plan by his own MPs to bring down deputy PM Barnaby Joyce.

    Red hot anger among “Barnaby backers” has split the party, with several $10,000-plus donors this week threatening never again to give to the cash-strapped organisation.

    The two women at the centre of the scandal — party leader Mia Davies and her friend Catherine Marriott — have again refused to comment on growing questions about their roles in the New England MP’s demise.”
    THE WA Nationals are in deep crisis, with party president James Hayward investigating whether there was a secret plan by his own MPs to bring down deputy PM Barnaby Joyce.

    Red hot anger among “Barnaby backers” has split the party, with several $10,000-plus donors this week threatening never again to give to the cash-strapped organisation.

    The two women at the centre of the scandal — party leader Mia Davies and her friend Catherine Marriott — have again refused to comment on growing questions about their roles in the New England MP’s demise.”
    https://www.perthnow.com.au/politics/nationals/wa-nationals-in-crisis-over-barnaby-joyce-claims-ng-b88762098z

  31. re: charisma

    John Howard isn’t exactly Mr Charisma. Didn’t do his political career any (long-term) harm.

    Though it is interesting to speculate whether Howard would have been as successful if he had started his political career 20 years later (i.e. mid 1990s), in very different times.

    For a start, I doubt he would have been allowed three chances at the top job.

  32. PeeBee says:
    Sunday, March 4, 2018 at 3:26 pm
    Poroti, he was concerned that Victorian money was heading into NSW towns along the Murray.

    In those days bus loads of oldies went there for the day to blow their pensions. Damage was limited as it was an occasional activity.

    It was similar in the ACT & NSW. The Queanbeyan Leagues Club attracted people to its swish premises from pokiesless Canberra. They could afford to be choosy who they let in. I was once denied entry because I was wearing sandals sans socks.

    Many years before that, Canberra was officially ‘dry’ and the residents had to visit Queanbeyan for a legal drink.

  33. I didnt think pollies were charismatic.I thought one of the requirements was to have a charisma bypass when you enter politics.

  34. poroti @ #3382 Sunday, March 4th, 2018 – 3:21 pm

    Player One

    That’s the big question that must be asked and answered. What is a sustainable population and how do we make sure we don’t exceed it ?

    Estimates vary, but in at least one very real sense, we’ve already exceeded it – if everyone in Australia were to enjoy the lifestyle typical of an inner-city dweller then our population would have to be far smaller than it is now – perhaps 15-20 million. Also, beyond 30 million (which is where we are headed) not only would we have to seriously curtail our lifestyle, but it is likely we would even have food security issues should we have a significant drought, or the the climate degrades significantly in other ways.

    The only reason we have not had more problems to date is that our lifestyle has – on average – been getting progressively worse since it peaked around 1974, and this will continue as long as our population keeps growing. Of course, if you live in the wealthier suburbs of our major cities you probably haven’t even noticed it. Try living elsewhere and it becomes abundantly clear.

    A couple of links supporting the above …

    https://theconversation.com/why-a-population-of-say-15-million-makes-sense-for-australia-78391

    https://population.org.au/about-population/australias-population

  35. 150 MPs.One green MP.Speaks for itself really.

    Yes, it highlights the unrepresentative nature of single-member electorates. Good to have you on board with a shift to proportional representation for every legislature in Australia.

  36. Eureka – proportional representation everywhere. Just so young Nicholas can go on the public teat as a staffer for Peg when the Greens win 12 out of 150 seats and take their place on the cross benchers next to One Nations 12 seats.

    Fabulous

  37. It seemed that the Barnaby situation was becoming a joke.

    Now it is clear that Barnaby is the joke!!!!! 🙂

  38. Nicholas says:
    Sunday, March 4, 2018 at 3:45 pm
    150 MPs.One green MP.Speaks for itself really.
    Yes, it highlights the unrepresentative nature of single-member electorates. Good to have you on board with a shift to proportional representation for every legislature in Australia.

    Yeah, Tories invariably try electoral manipulation when they cannot win a straight-out contest.

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