Essential Research and BludgerTrack deluxe

Introducing a bigger and better BludgerTrack. Also featured: a status quo result from Essential Research, at least so far as the major parties are concerned.

First up, BludgerTrack has proudly moved into the twenty-first century with a new fully interactive feature, offering hitherto hidden detail on state-level primary votes and the seat result probability estimates that are used to calculate the final result. Also included are the leadership rating trends, and there’s a facility for viewing raw opinion data throughout the current term.

The results as shown are updated to include the ReachTEL and Essential Research results, and the former has had a particularly big impact on voting intention, the primary numbers being even worse for the Coalition than the headline two-party result suggested. However, despite the 1% lurch to Labor on two-party preferred, there is little change to the seat projection, as the Coalition has had some stronger numbers lately from all-important Queensland, and Labor was largely punching into thin air with its gains in New South Wales and Victoria this week.

Then there’s the regular fortnightly result for Essential Research, which is notable in having both major parties at the low ebb of 35% on the primary vote, with the Coalition down one on a fortnight ago and Labor down two. This helps One Nation recover two points to 8%, with the Greens steady on 10%. Also unchanged is Labor’s two-party lead of 53-47.

Further questions relate mostly to the Barnaby Joyce situation, with a question conceived before his resignation on Friday finding 34% wanting him to leave parliament, 26% thinking he should resign as leader but stay in parliament, and only 19% thinking he should remain leader of the Nationals. Forty-four per cent expressed approval of “media reporting on politicians’ private affairs”, with 41% disapproving.

The poll also finds more respondents than not in favour not only of the ban on sex between ministers and their staff, but also on politicians having extra-marital sex altogether, and between managers and staff in the workplace. Twenty-two per cent even favoured a “ban on sex between workmates in general”, with 55% opposed. A rather particular question on health insurance policy finds 48% supporting removing the subsidy on private health insurance premiums and using the funds to include dental care in Medicare, with 32% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,634 comments on “Essential Research and BludgerTrack deluxe”

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  1. Morning all. As everything crumbles around him it’s no wonder Trump is reportedly in a state of anxiety and volatility.

    These are the darkest days in at least half a year, they say, and they worry just how much farther President Trump and his administration may plunge into unrest and malaise before they start to recover. As one official put it: “We haven’t bottomed out.”

    Trump is now a president in transition, at times angry and increasingly isolated. He fumes in private that just about every time he looks up at a television screen, the cable news headlines are trumpeting yet another scandal. He voices frustration that son-in-law Jared Kushner has few on-air defenders. He revives old grudges. And he confides to friends that he is uncertain about whom to trust.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/pure-madness-dark-days-inside-the-white-house-as-trump-shocks-and-rages/2018/03/03/9849867c-1e72-11e8-9de1-147dd2df3829_story.html?utm_term=.3b4e9a932c72

  2. Rex Douglas @ #3087 Sunday, March 4th, 2018 – 9:15 am

    Wong is clearly head and shoulders above the rest re leadership qualities. Charisma, presence, communication skills, courage, respect.
    The ALP should move heaven and earth to get her into the lower house and LOTO chair ASAP.

    The ALP should take serious note of Rex’s advice: If Rex is in favour of it, it is a sure sign that it would be the worst thing they could do.

  3. Player One @ #2887 Sunday, March 4th, 2018 – 9:40 am

    Rex Douglas @ #3087 Sunday, March 4th, 2018 – 9:15 am

    Wong is clearly head and shoulders above the rest re leadership qualities. Charisma, presence, communication skills, courage, respect.
    The ALP should move heaven and earth to get her into the lower house and LOTO chair ASAP.

    The ALP should take serious note of Rex’s advice: If Rex is in favour of it, it is a sure sign that it would be the worst thing they could do.

    can’t have someone from the left can we… ?

  4. What happened to the Green vote in Tasmania? They went backwards, and their leader was most ungracious in her election night speech.

    As for Jackie Lambie: good riddance.

  5. It has obviously dawned on Trump that he has booked several members of his family into prison and his only hope of saving them is to hang on as President and pardon them (which will, of course, get him impeached). He forgot the first rule of crime: don’t attract attention to yourself.

  8. I had great expectations for Labor in Tasmania but my heart sank the moment I heard that their headline policy was to eliminate pokies from clubs and pubs. It was a dumb move, one which reflects badly on their level of political intelligence IMO.

    Now we have to wait another four years and hope that they won’t be so bloody stupid next time around.

  10. …and yet Labor has reformed itself more than any other Australian party. That’s why it’s lasted over 100 years.

    What reforms have the Greens undertaken to their party structures? The Liberals?

  12. Darn @ #3108 Sunday, March 4th, 2018 – 9:56 am

    I had great expectations for Labor in Tasmania but my heart sank the moment I heard that their headline policy was to eliminate pokies from clubs and pubs. It was a dumb move, one which reflects badly on their level of political intelligence IMO.

    Now we have to wait another four years and hope that they won’t be so bloody stupid next time around.

    I hope they stick to their guns and build overwhelming community support to get rid of the wretched things.

  15. But two groups of voters — women and young people — will define the politics of this year, and probably 2020 as well.

    These are the voters who stand most apart from the president and who are most at odds with many of the priorities he has advanced in office. Their opposition and energy will determine the level of losses Republicans suffer in the November midterm elections. Come 2020, they are likely to determine whether the president wins a second term, should he indeed seek reelection.

    There has long been a gender gap in politics, with women more supportive of Democratic candidates in comparison to men. In the latest Gallup poll tracking of the president’s performance, 44 percent of men give Trump a positive rating compared with just 31 percent of women.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/women-and-young-voters-will-decide-the-2018-elections-if-they-actually-vote/2018/03/03/3e3c614c-1f06-11e8-b2d9-08e748f892c0_story.html?utm_term=.d62089d403be

    They need to turn out to vote though.

  16. “I hope they stick to their guns and build overwhelming community support to get rid of the wretched things.”

    Agreed. As policy its a good one well in the public interest.

    Classic example of running headfirst into vested interests.

  18. bemused @ #2897 Sunday, March 4th, 2018 – 10:00 am

    Darn @ #3108 Sunday, March 4th, 2018 – 9:56 am

    I had great expectations for Labor in Tasmania but my heart sank the moment I heard that their headline policy was to eliminate pokies from clubs and pubs. It was a dumb move, one which reflects badly on their level of political intelligence IMO.

    Now we have to wait another four years and hope that they won’t be so bloody stupid next time around.

    I hope they stick to their guns and build overwhelming community support to get rid of the wretched things.

    No need to get rid of them if they’re regulated properly.

  19. Player One says:
    Sunday, March 4, 2018 at 9:55 am
    Rex Douglas @ #3103 Sunday, March 4th, 2018 – 9:43 am

    can’t have someone from the left can we… ?

    Sure we can. Once Labor wins the next election, and perhaps a few after that, then I’d be perfectly happy if Shorten’s successor came from the left.

    Rex doesn’t understand nuance P1. Despite the attempts of a number of posters to educate him he still doesn’t get that Labor actually has to get elected before they can start moving the political pendulum to the left.

    He would have been ecstatic when Tasmanian Labor announced their policy on eliminating pokies and would no doubt still be applauding it, even as the Liberals say a big thank you and saddle up for another four years of pillaging the state.

  20. I realise Confessions is trolling but…

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2018/mar/03/tasmanian-election-polls-voting-liberal-labour-hodgman-white-live

    Hodgman in his victory speech:

    Hodgman thanks Labor leader Rebecca White and Greens leader Cassy O’Connor, and says he looks forward to working with them in parliament.

    OÇonnor:

    I would like to congratulate Rebecca White are fighting hard, and she did. And congratulations to Will Hodgman on what looks like a win. I do wish you well, and I do hope that over the next four years you put this island and its people first.

  21. “No need to get rid of them if they’re regulated properly.”

    bullshit. The least that needs to happen is to get them out of wide distribution. Only have then in a few venues like casinos.

  22. imacca @ #3115 Sunday, March 4th, 2018 – 6:06 am

    “I hope they stick to their guns and build overwhelming community support to get rid of the wretched things.”

    Agreed. As policy its a good one well in the public interest.

    Classic example of running headfirst into vested interests.

    I hope they don’t.

    Leave it as Party policy and shut up about them.

    Then when they achieve Government, turf the f#@kers!!!!!

    It was a mistake to make them a headline issue of the campaign.

  23. zoomster @ #2895 Sunday, March 4th, 2018 – 9:59 am

    …and yet Labor has reformed itself more than any other Australian party. That’s why it’s lasted over 100 years.

    What reforms have the Greens undertaken to their party structures? The Liberals?

    Terrible reforms that’s alienated the rank and file and locked in to super union control and neo-lib economics.

  26. bemused

    “I hope they stick to their guns and build overwhelming community support to get rid of the wretched things.”

    On Insiders this morning, Lenore Taylor said wtte there is talk within Labor about changing it’s pokies policy but she hopes they do not as it will send a terrible message about the ability of vested interests……

  27. Rex:

    We’re talking about the new leadership rules, right? The ones that give the rank-and-file a say in the leadership ballot for the first time ever, and give the unions no real say whatsoever?

  28. imacca @ #2906 Sunday, March 4th, 2018 – 10:10 am

    “No need to get rid of them if they’re regulated properly.”

    bullshit. The least that needs to happen is to get them out of wide distribution. Only have then in a few venues like casinos.

    $1 maximum bets together with P1’s suggestion of ‘plain packaging’ the machines and rooms that contain them. That’s the way to go.

  29. Of course none of the pokie debate considers or even acknowledges on-line poker machines. An industry which is virtually (pun intended) immune from regulation. The policy disadvantages pubs and clubs to the advantage of on-line providers without actually achieving anything.

  30. imacca @ #3116 Sunday, March 4th, 2018 – 10:06 am

    “I hope they stick to their guns and build overwhelming community support to get rid of the wretched things.”

    Agreed. As policy its a good one well in the public interest.

    Classic example of running headfirst into vested interests.

    Good grief! What is wrong with imacca? I wasn’t told to ‘naff off’. And he agrees with me!!! 😮

  31. @ zoomster:

    “The Tasmanian result shows what I keep emphasising – there is no point Labor trying to out-Green the Greens. Winning Green votes but not Liberal ones ultimately achieves nothing.

    As I also said a couple of weeks ago – banning pokies may shift one left wing vote from one column to the next, it’s not going to draw votes from the Liberals. In Labor’s case, it risks losing working class voters, who by and large see pokies as a form of entertainment and are fully aware of the risks.”

    This. Both ‘progressive’ parties need to take a long walk through the hall of mirrors. Both should stick to their knitting and stop pretending to be something they are not.

  32. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/mar/03/tasmania-election-liberals-win-second-term-with-clear-majority

    Though White remained defiant, Labor’s pokies stance is likely to be questioned internally. Labor candidate for Franklin David O’Byrne, who was returned to parliament after losing his seat four years ago and last week refused to rule out a leadership challenge, said the pokies policy aligned with Labor values but indicated it would be reviewed.

    At least two Labor candidates indicated on Saturday night they had received negative feedback about the pokies policy.

  33. Pegasus @ #3120 Sunday, March 4th, 2018 – 10:10 am

    OÇonnor:

    I would like to congratulate Rebecca White are fighting hard, and she did. And congratulations to Will Hodgman on what looks like a win. I do wish you well, and I do hope that over the next four years you put this island and its people first.

    Actually, that is not particularly gracious. It’s a sly dig. But I really loved this bit …

    Earlier, she described the Greens as the “real opposition” in Tasmania.

    Now, that’s gracious! 🙂

  36. So, Barnarby really just threw Vicki Campion under the bus to save his own hide? What a piece of shit.

    Perhaps he’s trying to get back with his wife?

  37. P1:

    Here is the Greens leader last night:

    Greens’ leader Cassy O’Connor, who is facing the possibility of a depleted party as her two colleagues remain on shaky ground, also took aim.

    “Yep, it’s been a difficult campaign for us,” Ms O’Connor said.

    “We were significantly outspent by the Labor Party and massively outspent by the Liberals.”

    She accused the Liberals of accepting millions of dollars from interstate and local pro-pokies groups, as that issue divided Tasmanians leading up to election day.

    “Millions of dollars pouring in from the gambling industry, from the Federal Group into Liberal coffers,” she said.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-03-04/hodgman-claims-victory-in-tasmania-under-claims-of-being-bought/9506348

    Shades of whiny Malcolm Turnbull on election night 2016.

  38. Pegasus @ #3126 Sunday, March 4th, 2018 – 10:13 am

    bemused

    “I hope they stick to their guns and build overwhelming community support to get rid of the wretched things.”

    On Insiders this morning, Lenore Taylor said wtte there is talk within Labor about changing it’s pokies policy but she hopes they do not as it will send a terrible message about the ability of vested interests……

    I watched that and took note. It is true.

    I am an unreconstructed Whitlamite. I believe you establish a good policy and then work long term to build support and make it a winner.

    Chifley took a similar view.

  39. Oakeshott Country @ #2914 Sunday, March 4th, 2018 – 10:16 am

    Of course none of the pokie debate considers or even acknowledges on-line poker machines. An industry which is virtually (pun intended) immune from regulation. The policy disadvantages pubs and clubs to the advantage of on-line providers without actually achieving anything.

    Great point.

    $1 maximum bets across the board.

  40. bemused @ #2923 Sunday, March 4th, 2018 – 10:22 am

    Pegasus @ #3126 Sunday, March 4th, 2018 – 10:13 am

    bemused

    “I hope they stick to their guns and build overwhelming community support to get rid of the wretched things.”

    On Insiders this morning, Lenore Taylor said wtte there is talk within Labor about changing it’s pokies policy but she hopes they do not as it will send a terrible message about the ability of vested interests……

    I watched that and took note. It is true.

    I am an unreconstructed Whitlamite. I believe you establish a good policy and then work long term to build support and make it a winner.

    Chifley took a similar view.

    It’s a dumb policy that will never get overwhelming support.

  42. Oakeshott Country @ #3129 Sunday, March 4th, 2018 – 10:16 am

    Of course none of the pokie debate considers or even acknowledges on-line poker machines. An industry which is virtually (pun intended) immune from regulation. The policy disadvantages pubs and clubs to the advantage of on-line providers without actually achieving anything.

    The financial transactions can be identified and regulated. Of course it takes the will to do it and to ignore the squeals of the financial sector.

  43. confessions

    “We were significantly outspent by the Labor Party and massively outspent by the Liberals.”

    I understand how a simple statement of fact would be upsetting to you.

  44. No need to get rid of them if they’re regulated properly.

    Well you surprise me with that Rex. I would have thought you were an abolitionist. Apologies for the my previous comment, though I still maintain you do not understand that Federal Labor has to be very careful about how it presents itself in the lead up to the election. Being absolutely pure and coming a courageous second is not the way to get things done politically.

  45. confessions,

    By your standards, White is just as “whiny”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2018/mar/03/tasmanian-election-polls-voting-liberal-labour-hodgman-white-live

    Both Labor and the Greens decried the role of wealthy vested interests in the election. Rebecca White and Cassy O’Connor both made accusations that seats had been “bought”. They said the gambling industry had helped to fund a vast advertising campaign on behalf of the Liberals. The Greens called for immediate donations reform, to give Tasmanians real-time reporting of election funding. Under current rules, the election funding is not disclosed until 2019.

  46. Rex Douglas @ #3140 Sunday, March 4th, 2018 – 10:23 am

    bemused @ #2923 Sunday, March 4th, 2018 – 10:22 am

    Pegasus @ #3126 Sunday, March 4th, 2018 – 10:13 am

    bemused

    “I hope they stick to their guns and build overwhelming community support to get rid of the wretched things.”

    On Insiders this morning, Lenore Taylor said wtte there is talk within Labor about changing it’s pokies policy but she hopes they do not as it will send a terrible message about the ability of vested interests……

    I watched that and took note. It is true.

    I am an unreconstructed Whitlamite. I believe you establish a good policy and then work long term to build support and make it a winner.

    Chifley took a similar view.

    It’s a dumb policy that will never get overwhelming support.

    Thank you for your endorsement Rex.
    Knowing you are opposed makes me certain it is the right policy.

  48. White:
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/mar/03/tasmania-election-liberals-win-second-term-with-clear-majority

    To cries of “shame” from the Labor faithful, White said: “It shouldn’t be the case that you can buy a seat in the Tasmanian parliament. That is shame. The Tasmanian people should be represented by the best representatives, not the richest.”

    It was a message echoed by Greens leader Cassy O’Connor, who started her campaign by arguing for donations reform. “If there is one lesson that comes out of this campaign it is that donations reform is absolutely essential for Tasmania. Never again can we let an election and government be bought,” she said.

  49. Have a great day all.

    I am off to pick up my granddaughters and take them to the Brunswick Music Festival Street Party. It will be their first and a great day for it too with mild weather.

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