First up, BludgerTrack has proudly moved into the twenty-first century with a new fully interactive feature, offering hitherto hidden detail on state-level primary votes and the seat result probability estimates that are used to calculate the final result. Also included are the leadership rating trends, and there’s a facility for viewing raw opinion data throughout the current term.
The results as shown are updated to include the ReachTEL and Essential Research results, and the former has had a particularly big impact on voting intention, the primary numbers being even worse for the Coalition than the headline two-party result suggested. However, despite the 1% lurch to Labor on two-party preferred, there is little change to the seat projection, as the Coalition has had some stronger numbers lately from all-important Queensland, and Labor was largely punching into thin air with its gains in New South Wales and Victoria this week.
Then there’s the regular fortnightly result for Essential Research, which is notable in having both major parties at the low ebb of 35% on the primary vote, with the Coalition down one on a fortnight ago and Labor down two. This helps One Nation recover two points to 8%, with the Greens steady on 10%. Also unchanged is Labor’s two-party lead of 53-47.
Further questions relate mostly to the Barnaby Joyce situation, with a question conceived before his resignation on Friday finding 34% wanting him to leave parliament, 26% thinking he should resign as leader but stay in parliament, and only 19% thinking he should remain leader of the Nationals. Forty-four per cent expressed approval of “media reporting on politicians’ private affairs”, with 41% disapproving.
The poll also finds more respondents than not in favour not only of the ban on sex between ministers and their staff, but also on politicians having extra-marital sex altogether, and between managers and staff in the workplace. Twenty-two per cent even favoured a “ban on sex between workmates in general”, with 55% opposed. A rather particular question on health insurance policy finds 48% supporting removing the subsidy on private health insurance premiums and using the funds to include dental care in Medicare, with 32% opposed.
With spin and outright BS so glossily produced by interest groups, readily promulgated by the media and easily swallowed by the public; are we in an era when ONLY a highly charismatic leader can cut through it?
Jeremy Corbyn is highly charismatic. Discuss. 🙂
Trog
“It appears that neither Labor nor the Greens can clearly articulate a progressive economic agenda.”
True. Listen to Jacinda Ardern in NZ for an example of how it is done. Forget tax cuts and take on the real economic evils: housing prices, stagnant wages, and monopolistic service providers, including banks. Most of the rest can be fixed by reallocating existing funds. In my area (transport) we already spend too much on freeways and too little on public transport. The solution is obvious, and it would employ more people.
Cat
Sorry to say it but i& that is true, ( Ardern proves it) Shorten is not the right leader, and neither is Albo. Labor should move to Plibersek and Andrew Leigh as Loto and shadow treasurer if it wants to win government.
Simon Katich @ #3050 Sunday, March 4th, 2018 – 7:37 am
The trouble with charismatic leaders is that they often (not always) have a very high opinion of their own personal views and demand they be implemented in full even when others can see they are misconceived. The result is often a huge crash for their side of politics a bit of a way down the track.
What is needed is a strong movement, not a strong leader.
So, what is the weekend looking like?
Turnbull STILL has Joyce grabbing his oxygen. His minister for women is slut shaming women. Ciobo is whinging about how Turnbull’s US bestie is stabbing Australian steel and aluminium exporters in the back. Shorten is still there. Labor is still on 53/47. The next Newspoll will be No 28. Abbott is busy sucking any oxygen left after Joyce has had his suck at the political oxygen bottle. Monthly hours worked sucks. Dutton found yet another way to stick it to Australia’s second class citizens: migrants. The homeowners who are the Coalition’s mainstay will any day now start fretting about falling real house prices. Scandals continue to surface about the management of water in the MDB, the latest being a water buy back at a price that looks, on the face of it, to be something like three times the market price and with no tender, hey mate, wink wink.
Like a bad smell, Quaedvlieg is still there.
Oh, and rather under-reported, was that the Afghanistan Government called on the Taliban to start talking on a peace deal. JBishop, between pearl buying trips, has not publicly commented on why we are fighting for a Government that is actually talking deals with terrorists.
Socrates @ #3052 Sunday, March 4th, 2018 – 7:39 am
You’ve just described Shorten’s approach.
“What is needed is a strong movement, not a strong leader.”
And how do a bunch of factional numbers men give us that?
The Greens, who have managed to alienate 90% of Australian voters, are always free with useless or counterproductive advice to Labor.
Fancy that.
‘… take on the real economic evils: housing prices, stagnant wages, and monopolistic service providers, including banks. ‘
Shorten has dealt with all of these.
Labor need to keep doing what it is doing. If it does that it will overcome Big Fossil and Big Money. The Greens need to come to their senses and stop gifting free kicks to Big Fossil and Big Money on the Coalition’s behalf.
Boerwar
Pearl buying – or pearl borrowing?
Articulate.
I was listening to an RN town hall thing on China and Bob Carr was on the Panel. He was very articulate. It is easy to see why he was so successful in NSW.
I remember way back he was answering journo questions about farmers threatening to sue the NSW gov because of bushfires starting in national parks due to too little burn off fuel reduction. He was fantastic. He smashed them first with – OK, so long as we can sue farmers for fires that start on their property (where most fires seem to start). Then backed it up with the fact that weather conditions in the high country just didnt allow for burning in that offseason. Then mentioned that the National Parks fire service were a committed team and reminded everyone that lives had been lost in National Parks fuel reduction in the past.
“Or, has it always been so for the left?”
To a large extent. The other side has nearly all the money and most of the ‘natural’ sources of power and authority on their side.
Soc
Again, by doing what Labor is currently doing, and building up a strong grassroots movement, which involves more than just signed up Labor members.
Jacinda Ardern and her brains trust, prominent among whom is Phil Twyford MP, her Minister for Housing and Urban Development, also took on another shibboleth of the Left, Immigration, and won by proposing cuts to immigration in order to address infrastructure and the needs of the lower classes and homeless in NZ society. Scrapping Negative Gearing is another policy they will enact, in order to redress the balance between Renters, Landlords and Home Owners.
Simon K
By George, I think you’ve got it! Voters don’t trust politicians any more.
BK
Aye, there’s the rub.
Simon Katich
What a shame he presided over the purification of NSW Labor. But he did do first class Lora Nordor 🙁
I don’t regard Plibersek as charismatic. But then, I’m not a male.
Socrates @ #3053 Sunday, March 4th, 2018 – 7:42 am
I can see your point but I don’t agree. I think the leader needs to be very hard nosed and already tested by fire and I don’t think Tanya fits that slot. She is excellent as a deputy leader – competent, caring and photogenic. Leigh is an interesting guy with some good ideas but I think would be a bit of a lightweight when it comes to a crisis.
I think we misperceive Jacinda a bit. Despite her age and gender, she has been a hard player in NZ politics for ages (since her first campaign in 1999) and has been an MP for 10 years. Look her up on Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jacinda_Ardern She’s an experienced politician with international experience.
lizzie
Charismatic would not be how I would describe her either.
Socrates @ #3053 Sunday, March 4th, 2018 – 8:42 am
That would be AFTER an election loss next time. Nothing to be gained from doing it now. Except a bigger Coalition win because that’s what all the supporters of the Coalition are salivating about.
I also think that 53-47, on average, and 28-30 losing Newspolls in a row is doing okay for the moment, with the leader that federal Labor have. 🙂
Socrates: “Sorry to say it but i& that is true, ( Ardern proves it) Shorten is not the right leader, and neither is Albo. Labor should move to Plibersek and Andrew Leigh as Loto and shadow treasurer if it wants to win government.”
On what basis are you equating Tanya Plib and Ardern? Just because they are both good looking?
Ardern is far smarter and far, far more articulate than Tanya.
I think Shorten is pretty good. If he isn’t the leader, then Penny Wong is easily the most impressive person among the ranks of the Federal ALP: she’s worth umpteen Tanya Plibs.
The other political pus flows that are oozing from the cracks in the Coalition’s crumbling edifice are the multifarious money-for-favours-deals done with Chinese interests.
Lizzie
I wouldnt call Plibersek charismatic either.
BK @ #3061 Sunday, March 4th, 2018 – 8:47 am
Boyfriend – Male Handbag
Tomayto – Tomahto 🙂
Anyway, what I think yesterday’s Tasmanian election tells us is that the electors just want stable government.
The Coalition has spent more than $55 million of taxpayer funds to try to destroy Shorten.
At the beginning of last week they were in full character assassination flow. It was unrestrained vicious, nasty personal stuff.
The shock jocks, the Murdock smear shits are in full flow Shorten character assassination.
And who chips in with a bit of gratuitous advice?
The Greens, of course.
Do they even dimly begin to understand that they are helping Big Fossil and Big Money?
** Jeremy Corbyn is highly charismatic. Discuss. **
Dont know about Corbyn. But Sanders is. Clinton (Bill) certainly was. Obama is. Hawke was. Keating was at times.
Yes, the left need a ground up movement. But I am speculating they also need a charismatic salesman.
I also agree with BW. There are those who vote who are very easily alienated by the left due to the cultural divide. They will often figure out what they believe in simply by taking the opposite position to (what they see as) inner city lefty elites. The right leaning media prey on this. They feed it and stoke it.
If not a charismatic leader then I suggest the Left need an unaffiliated version of Country Labor to break this cultural barrier to the Left so many now have. Something like the Democrat politicians doing well in traditional Repug states – Heidi whatshername comes to mind.
True Ardern is smarter and more articulate than Plibersek. To be honest I am struggling to think of anyone in Labor who can match Ardern. I am fully aware of her background experience; more than Shorten in fact.
Then who do you suggest as the next Labor leader after Shorten? I hope he wins but I am concerned he will not.
MB
Wong is the strongest speaker and leader in Federal Labor, as she showed putting Cash back in her box last week. Is the Labor caucus willing to accept a gay leader? I am, but I worry the religious fundies in caucus are not.
ajm
Thanks for prompting me to check Wikipedia. She sure isn’t some new kid in town when it comes to politics.
Tas Labor did well to pick up over 5% but could’ve gained more I feel if they had’ve gone with $1 maximum pokie bets. They’ve got a young freshfaced charismatic leftist leader and should build on their gains.
The Tas Greens maintain a double digit % and given the Tas ALP are moving to the left they won’t be too disappointed with their position.
I brought up Carr solely because he articulates well. He certainly had his flaws as did NSW ALP (todays understatement).
I also do not bring this up as a shot at Shorten. IMO there is nobody currently in the senior ranks that is substantially more capable. Shorten does a pretty good job on most metrics.
Socrates
Wong has four problems. Only one of them is easily resolved, and that is finding her a lower house seat (rumours at Adelaide and the new one in Canberra). I’m not sure if the majority of Australia is comfortable with such a proposition for a leader yet.
Plus she’d be missed in senate estimates.
Good morning all,
I find it interesting that some posters appear to be complaining about the legitimacy of the Tasmanian poker machine industry campaigning strongly against a policy that would harm them.
At the heart of the opposition to the federal governments foreign donations legislation is the effect the legislation would have on the ability of charities and other groups to campaign for or against issues that they believe are important and or central to their core purpose for being.
Charities, unions, get up ! and a wide range of other interest groups have in the past spent and continue to spend significant amounts of money during elections to support or oppose policy positions put forward by competing parties. This is a legitimate and democratic process that should continue to be open to all.
If it is good for unions, if it is good for charities to campaign on social issues including increasing foreign aid, if it is good for conservation organisations to push their agendas by campaigning and investing significant money in election campaigns why not the gambling industry ?
You cannot pick and choose the legitimacy of campaigns by ” pressure groups ” firing elections simply because you believe one group is on the side of the Angels and another, such as the pokies industry, is the devil reborn.
Like it or not the pokie industry campaign in Tassie was legitimate and democratic whether you agree with them or not.
Labor in Tasmania should have been far better prepared and far more nuanced in their approach. They knew what they would face.
Cheers.
Socrates @ #2865 Sunday, March 4th, 2018 – 9:09 am
Wong is clearly head and shoulders above the rest re leadership qualities. Charisma, presence, communication skills, courage, respect.
The ALP should move heaven and earth to get her into the lower house and LOTO chair ASAP.
Tony Windsor is not holding back by tweeting “If anyone had doubts about Joyce’s character I think they now have a clear picture of this grub , will sacrifice others on his blundering self centred path . How many more women does he have to damage ?”
Simon Katich @ #3041 Sunday, March 4th, 2018 – 4:30 am
Hers? 🙂
Simon Katich @ #2868 Sunday, March 4th, 2018 – 9:12 am
He’s a terrible LOTO.
Untrustworthy, inarticulate, despised by the majority of polling respondents and a drag on Labors vote.
meher baba
If Wong became PM it really would feel like the adults were back in charge .
BiGD
** Hers? **
Very good!
Bad Boy Syndrome?
A female friend once cried on my shoulder wondering why all her boyfriends turned out to be losers. I had to break it to her it was obvious to everyone else that they were all losers from the start.
SK
It is a fact universally admitted that an older man becomes incredibly attractive when he has money.
Barnaby doesn’t have quite the same pulling power he did a month ago…
lizzie @ #3069 Sunday, March 4th, 2018 – 8:53 am
I don’t think she is charismatic either, in the normal sense it is used.
She comes across as calm, thoughtful and reasonable.
That appeals to me.
Just because someone is really good at their job doesnt mean they should get a promotion to a new job.
I saw too many really good engineering project managers ‘lost’ to executive managerial positions where they were not very talented.
Ah, I see that panic has set in at poll bludger again. The only threat to Labor at the next election is doing something stupid. Fortunately, Federal MPs are too smart to do that.
Though, surely, after Shorten spends a couple of terms as PM, the next leader should be Tony Burke.
Simon Katich @ #3095 Sunday, March 4th, 2018 – 8:27 am
The famous “Peter Principle”. Everyone is promoted to their level of incompetence, after which no-one will promote them.
Doesn’t always work in politics though – quite a few such as Joe Hockey get promoted out of their level of incompetence.
Simon Katich
Come on down The Peter Principle.
.
“The Peter principle is a concept in management theory formulated by educator Laurence J. Peter and published in 1969. It states that the selection of a candidate for a position is based on the candidate’s performance in their current role, rather than on abilities relevant to the intended role.
Thus, employees only stop being promoted once they can no longer perform effectively, and “managers rise to the level of their incompetence”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_principle
poroti @ #3099 Sunday, March 4th, 2018 – 8:32 am
SK
Snap – but see my qualification.