Essential Research and BludgerTrack deluxe

Introducing a bigger and better BludgerTrack. Also featured: a status quo result from Essential Research, at least so far as the major parties are concerned.

First up, BludgerTrack has proudly moved into the twenty-first century with a new fully interactive feature, offering hitherto hidden detail on state-level primary votes and the seat result probability estimates that are used to calculate the final result. Also included are the leadership rating trends, and there’s a facility for viewing raw opinion data throughout the current term.

The results as shown are updated to include the ReachTEL and Essential Research results, and the former has had a particularly big impact on voting intention, the primary numbers being even worse for the Coalition than the headline two-party result suggested. However, despite the 1% lurch to Labor on two-party preferred, there is little change to the seat projection, as the Coalition has had some stronger numbers lately from all-important Queensland, and Labor was largely punching into thin air with its gains in New South Wales and Victoria this week.

Then there’s the regular fortnightly result for Essential Research, which is notable in having both major parties at the low ebb of 35% on the primary vote, with the Coalition down one on a fortnight ago and Labor down two. This helps One Nation recover two points to 8%, with the Greens steady on 10%. Also unchanged is Labor’s two-party lead of 53-47.

Further questions relate mostly to the Barnaby Joyce situation, with a question conceived before his resignation on Friday finding 34% wanting him to leave parliament, 26% thinking he should resign as leader but stay in parliament, and only 19% thinking he should remain leader of the Nationals. Forty-four per cent expressed approval of “media reporting on politicians’ private affairs”, with 41% disapproving.

The poll also finds more respondents than not in favour not only of the ban on sex between ministers and their staff, but also on politicians having extra-marital sex altogether, and between managers and staff in the workplace. Twenty-two per cent even favoured a “ban on sex between workmates in general”, with 55% opposed. A rather particular question on health insurance policy finds 48% supporting removing the subsidy on private health insurance premiums and using the funds to include dental care in Medicare, with 32% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,634 comments on “Essential Research and BludgerTrack deluxe”

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  1. Does the advent of “BludgerTrack deluxe” mean I need to increase my monthly contribution ?……………….. Did ya like my Bludger style virtue signalling ? 😆

  7. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-27/geoff-cousins-accuses-bill-shorten-of-reneging-on-adani-deal/9490238

    Businessman and environmentalist Geoff Cousins says Opposition Leader Bill Shorten told him that when Labor wins government they could revoke the Adani mine licence.

    Mr Cousins, former president of the Australian Conservation Foundation, told 7.30 that Mr Shorten made the statement to him privately last month.

    “The key statement was that, ‘When we are in government, if the evidence is as compelling as we presently believe it to be regarding the approval of the Adani mine, we will revoke the licence, as allowed in the act. That’s a clear policy’,” Mr Cousins said.

    “He told me he intended to speak to his colleagues.”

    ::::
    Mr Cousins said he was speaking out publicly to “increase the pressure” on Labor to make a decision.

    “It’s pretty clear there is some kind of resistance in his party to him leading on this issue,” he said.

    A spokesperson for Mr Shorten confirmed the Opposition Leader requested a meeting with the Australian Conservation Foundation and Mr Cousins for their views on the Adani mine.

    :::
    “It’s no secret that Bill is deeply sceptical of the proposed Adani coal mine. He believes if it cannot stack up environmentally or commercially, it should not go ahead. So far it hasn’t, and he doesn’t believe it will.”

    :::

    But they said: “Labor does not rip up contracts and we don’t create sovereign risk.”

  8. More hilarity in the face of Trump’s bold assertion he would’ve stormed into the Florida school and confronted the shooter unarmed.

    Trump said he would charge a gunman. Here’s what he’s actually done in the face of danger.

    Not exactly danger, but includes a photo that absolutely sums up the character of the man.

    President Trump covers himself from the rain with an umbrella while his son, Barron Trump, walks behind as they board Air Force One in West Palm Beach, Fla., after a holiday weekend in January.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2018/02/26/trump-said-he-would-charge-a-gunman-heres-what-hes-actually-done-in-the-face-of-danger/?utm_term=.e14147a858f2

  11. Alan Sunderland (ABC Editorial Manager) is rather unhappy with Kristina Kenneally’s somewhat forensic questioning in Estimates re the Alberici matter.

  12. Great effort on the interactive Bludgertrack, thanks William.

    The 2PP graph for SA seems to have the colours reversed for individual polls. The red line looks like a trend through the blue dots and vice versa.

  13. Katharine Murphy’s take on the Cousins’ interview:

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/australian-politics

    Businessman and environmentalist Geoff Cousins says Bill Shorten gave him clear and repeated signals that Labor intended to harden its opposition to the controversial Adani coalmine, including promising to revoke the licence for the project if the ALP won the next federal election.

    Cousins, a former president of the Australian Conservation Foundation, who accompanied Shorten to north Queensland in January to explore the various policy options for the Adani project, used a television interview on Tuesday night to publicly blast him for a lack of leadership.

    “Sooner or later you’ve got to take your heart in your hands if you want to be a leader,” the businessman told the ABC on Tuesday night. “You actually have to face down those people who won’t allow you to lead and say, ‘I’m sorry, this is where we’re going.’”

    Cousins said it was clear Shorten had met institutional resistance inside the party, forcing him to step back from the clear direction he had telegraphed to him in January. He noted Shorten had “made steps towards having a policy, but you can’t say those kinds of statements form a policy”.

  14. Boerwar @ #46 Tuesday, February 27th, 2018 – 9:56 pm

    p1

    In terms of extinction, the essential question seems to be whether humans would be able to set up growing systems for plant and animal food that are isolated from climate.

    They do so now. For example, some 15% of Australia’s truss tomatoes are grown in a single closed growing system in South Australia.

    Most current closed systems are designed to increase heat although they may include mechanisms to reduce heat, depending.

    There is no engineering reason that closed systems designed to reduce heat cannot be developed.

    Any energy required for cooling would be limitless renewables.

    We are not just talking about turning up the air conditioning by a couple of notches here. The degree of difficulty would be more like setting up a colony on another planet than setting up a hydroponic farm.

    You are expecting Homo Saps to survive on a planet where 95% of all species (not just Homo Saps) have been completely exterminated, leaving little that is more complex than a bacteria or a fungi. The oceans are dead and depleted of oxygen, the ozone layer has been destroyed and even the atmosphere regularly becomes toxic – even explosive – because of clouds of hydrogen sulphide and methane bubbling up from the sea beds.

    As i said, good luck with that!

  15. I reckon trump is using that umbrella to keep his hair hat in place.
    The recent video of him ascending the steps to Air Force One in a gale where his hair became unglued is horrific and he obviously doesn’t want a repeat.
    Poor Barron just had to take one for the team.

  16. Henry:

    Undoubtedly. I’m sure he’d make his wife walk in the rain if it came down to a choice between a potentially embarrassing hair moment for Donald and his wife getting drenched!

  19. Policies to address global warming will certainly be top of the agenda at this year’s Labor National Conference. Labor will not fall for a do-nothing sham. The Right, which includes the CFMEU these days, will be less ambitious than the Left but the numbers will be very evenly balanced and strong policy will come out of the Conference.

  20. Quadbike appears to be getting the Liberal Party Dirt Unit treatment with a confidential report leaked to the Daily ToiletPaper. Worked to get rid of Barnyard also.

    Are these LPDU operatives out of control?

  22. briefly @ #69 Tuesday, February 27th, 2018 – 10:40 pm

    Policies to address global warming will certainly be top of the agenda at this year’s Labor National Conference. Labor will not fall for a do-nothing sham. The Right, which includes the CFMEU these days, will be less ambitious than the Left but the numbers will be very evenly balanced and strong policy will come out of the Conference.

    If there is anything other than total support for Bill across the whole spectrum of issues, then I’ll be surprised.

  26. Player One @9:40pm

    Thanks for sharing the link, horrifying as it is. It certainly called the Mediterranean drought and European refugee crisis ahead of time.

    Do you know if that author has an updated forecast? The article seems to date from between 2005 and 2007: the last historical events it cites are from 2005, and it refers to Bush and Howard as if they’re still in office. Now we’re 12 years down the track with even higher annual emissions, which according to that article means we’re locked into 2 degrees of warming, with a high probability of positive feedback loops that lead to 5+ degrees of warming. I wonder if that author still holds that view.

  27. Observer @ #1219 Monday, February 26th, 2018 – 8:02 pm

    Simply, the personal circumstances which have engulfed Joyce were widely and well known well ahead of the by-election

    They were spoken of in political circles in Melbourne

    The fact he no longer resided in the family home was a given

    Interestingly, when he voted he was accompanied by his parents – not his wife or daughters from who he was estranged

    Check the media coverage

    If any confirmation was required it was his parents in the media not his wife or daughters

    I wonder who they voted for?

    Then you get to who was and wasn’t present at the function on election night – again no wife or daughters, but the Akubra, check shirt wearing pm was there in all of his glory

    So Barnaby, where is your family on this triumphal night?

    They are home with a headache, Malcolm

    Thanks for asking

    I will pass on your good wishes when I get home tonight

    To revive and old post:

    Brian Trumble, the senior L/NP leadership and the CPG should have realised something was amiss when they knew one of Beetrooters daughters was campainging for Labor and handed out Labor HTV’s on election day.

    The level of credulity within the senior ranks of the L/NP beggars belief. The DPM’s daughter campaigning for Labor, nah nothing to see here, move on people.

  31. Laurence TribeVerified account@tribelaw
    41s41 seconds ago
    Either way, Trump is a Putin enabler, guilty of dereliction of duty at a minimum and probably of worse. Enough to warrant a trial in the proper tribunal:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/26/opinion/trump-russia-election-conspiracy.html

    Love the concluding para, (wtte) perhaps Trump was unwittingly taken advantage of by two alleged fraudster shysters in Manafort and Page, which based on the info we have to date does not prove that Trump is too disloyal to his own country to be president. But what it does demonstrate is that he’s too clueless to be president.

  34. @William

    Thank you for the new site, it is a fantastic resource for election nerds and politics junkies.

    On state level results in the bludger deluxe, did you mean to say you have access to unpublished polls? I knew you were adding state based results but I was unaware you had access to state-level data unavailable to the public.

  35. Gorks @ #84 Tuesday, February 27th, 2018 – 8:08 pm

    @William

    Thank you for the new site, it is a fantastic resource for election nerds and politics junkies.

    On state level results in the bludger deluxe, did you mean to say you have access to unpublished polls? I knew you were adding state based results but I was unaware you had access to state-level data unavailable to the public.

    As one of Australia’s most respected psephologists, I’ve no doubt Mr Bowe has access to quite a bit of data not in the public domain.

    #GratuitousCrawlingOnPB

  36. Here we go. He’s managed to stay off twitter for a couple days, but bursts back onto social media clearly spurred on by something he’s seen on US State TV.

    Donald J. TrumpVerified account@realDonaldTrump
    18m18 minutes ago
    “He’s got a very good point. Somebody in the Justice Department has a treasure trove of evidence of Mrs. Clinton’s criminality at her own hands, or through others, that ought to be investigated. I fully agree with the President on that.” @judgenapolitano on @marthamaccallum Show

  37. I wonder if there is any correlation between Trump’s approval and his Twitter use. Seems like when he is fuming on Twitter his numbers go down and when he shuts up for a while they start climbing back up. Either way some very dire numbers for GOP in America at the moment.

  38. Got a report on something that you have sat on for months because you haven’t got a clue how to deal with the problem?

    In this case the man in the frame is Roman Quaedvlieg who has powerful friends at the top of the government.

    Can’t sack him, can’t release the report without having to explain why nothing has been done …

    I know, leak it to the DT and when asked about it say it’s a terrible business and we can’t comment because the leak has been referred to the AFP.

    Problem solved. Sort of.

  40. Player and BW

    You do no one least of all the environment any favours by exaggerating the impact of GW. Yes there will be significant climate change with some areas becoming deserts where people die but also some areas will become wetter.

    Plants will continue to grow, with some doing very well, So yes there would be food. Ecology is very adatable, so while may native spcies would die out invading species would fill the void.

    So life as we know it would change but that is not saying humanity would be wiped out.

    There are of course far more terrifying ideas. A Sci Fi I once read was about the death of all grasses eg via a disease of some kind. This would really kill off most of the animal population – ruminants would die out and we would struggle for food. No wheat, corn, rice oats, barley. I guess goats would survive but not sheep. Giraffes would cope but not horses or cows. Those living in the tropics where bananas and coconuts grow would fare best. Pigs would be OK

  43. dtt
    Clueless. The global ecosystem is edging towards a precipice. Just where the edge is located is unknown. Fuck up ocean chemistry and we lose our oxygen.
    Humanity will survive, but only in high tech enclaves. Even goats need oxygen. They also need something to eat.

  44. “Giraffes would cope but not horses or cows.”
    A Trumpian understanding of biology. Giraffes have fairly specific food requirements such as Acacia. They would be among the first to go.

  45. Trog Sorrenson @ #72 Tuesday, February 27th, 2018 – 11:24 pm

    dtt
    Clueless. The global ecosystem is edging towards a precipice. Just where the edge is located is unknown. Fuck up ocean chemistry and we lose our oxygen.
    Humanity will survive, but only in high tech enclaves. Even goats need oxygen. They also need something to eat.

    Trog

    Not quite sure what we are arguing about. Not really arguing with much of this BUT you will understand that life is adaptable and as Darwin said survival of the fittest.Additional CO2 will boost plant growth and correspondingly oxygen levels. In the other hand the massive decay caused by temperature rises will increase methane, and stifle plant growth. However in spots where there is warmth and sunlight plants will continue to grow. Some kinds of animals will eat the plants.

  46. Trog Sorrenson @ #73 Tuesday, February 27th, 2018 – 11:37 pm

    “Giraffes would cope but not horses or cows.”
    A Trumpian understanding of biology. Giraffes have fairly specific food requirements such as Acacia. They would be among the first to go.

    trog

    Some crossed wires here. I was referring to a Sci Fi novel I once read re the death of GRASSES. Maybe all monocotyledons. So yes giraffes would be OK precisely because they eat Acacia and not grass. Goats eat anything as opposed to sheep. That was really my point.

    Plenty to argue about without arguing at cross purposes.

  47. “Not really arguing with much of this BUT you will understand that life is adaptable and as Darwin said survival of the fittest.Additional CO2 will boost plant growth and correspondingly oxygen levels. ”
    Adaptation of complex organisms takes place over geological timescales. The only things that can adapt rapidly are simple organisms such as bacteria and other unicellular forms.
    Too much CO2 will not increase oxygen production. It will acidify the oceans, which is where most of the oxygen comes from.

  48. adrian

    According to ABC news it was a SECRET meeting that Shorten held with Cousins.

    These days that’s the way the ABC would portray it.

    Cousins was at pains to emphasise that he had an agreement with Shorten that he could talk about the meeting only when he had Shortens go ahead to do so.

  49. adrian

    According to ABC news it was a SECRET meeting that Shorten held with Cousins in northern Qld over a few days.

    These days that’s the way the ABC would portray it.

    Cousins was at pains to emphasise that he had an agreement with Shorten that he could talk about the meeting only when he had Shortens go ahead to do so.

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