ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor

More evidence that the Barnaby Joyce saga has shut out the Coalition’s glimmer of polling sunlight at the start of the year.

The latest ReachTEL poll for Sky News is the Coalition’s worst result from that pollster this term, showing Labor with a two-party lead of 54-46, out from 52-48 at the previous poll on January 25. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down a point to 33%, Labor is up one to 37%, the Greens are up one to 11% and One Nation are down one to 7%. Malcolm Turnbull’s lead on the forced response preferred prime minister question is 53-47, down from 54-46. The poll was conducted on Thursday, the evening before Barnaby Joyce’s resignation: it found 57% thought he should indeed resign, against 32% who thought he should remain. A question on who should be Nationals leader had Joyce on 23%, Bridget McKenzie on 15%, Michael McCormack on 11%, Darren Chester on 6% and “don’t know” a formidable 40%.

UPDATE: As noted in comments, the Coalition have done well to make it to 54-46 on ReachTEL’s respondent-allocated two-party preferred result. If 2016 election preference flows are applied, the result is around 55.5-44.5.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,838 comments on “ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor”

Comments Page 32 of 37
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  3. Hi Matt, could you please post again the link to the analysis written by an engineer whom you mentioned several pages back – the engineer who writes about global warming?

  5. Barney

    A pity they are not so amenable to the human rights parts of Australian influence. Like freedom of and from religion.

    Also repealing criminal charges related to homosexual sex.

    A bit hard to charge your opposition with Sodomy though if you make it legal like most democracies.

  6. daretotread. says:
    Tuesday, February 27, 2018 at 1:04 pm

    ….The main difference between myself and conventional “lefties”

    …is that you are not a lefty by any worthwhile definition.

    You campaign for an anti-democratic, militarily aggressive, territorially and strategically acquisitive authoritarian State that is determined to cause trouble in the democracies; a State that has financed the subversion of electoral processes in the US, the UK, France and elsewhere.

    You campaign for a nominally-leftist outfit in Australia that is congenitally hostile to the organs and programs of working people; an outfit that is pure bourgeois radicalism but is in no sense a party of the left.

    You routinely apologise for the Putinette, Trump, who is a racist, sexist, incompetent, kleptocrat.

    If you are a leftie, so was BA Santamaria.

  7. briefly

    I have to agree with your post about Putin though you left out the war against LGBTI people.

    Agree with your comments on DTT defending his regime

  9. Reuters: JUST IN: Joseph Yun, chief U.S. negotiator with North Korea, announces retirement , cites personal reasons: U.S. state department pic.twitter.com/KKj92QiSpz

    There you go DTT.

    Trump brings us another step closer to nuclear war

  10. Ides
    “Is this a good time to mention the previous Dr Who took his form from a Roman at Pompeii he met right before Vesuvius blew up?”

    Lucius Caecilius Iucundus, IIRC. Capaldi was vastly under-utilised in that role. The Latin asides were quite funny.

  11. Guess who made this statement re the locked out Oaky North workers ? Answer at end of post. Darn pinko….

    No company should lock its workers out for only 50 days, let alone more than 200 days. The workers went on strike, but the response was not commensurate to that action, nor was it helpful to enterprise agreement negotiations………………but you cannot continue to employ people – even via labour hire contractors on a casual basis – when in reality they are full-time workers. They need to stop this practice. Mining companies need to stop this practice, or government is going to stop it for them.”

    24m ago 14:36
    someone has transcribed all of George Christensen’s statement for me.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2018/feb/27/barnaby-joyce-refuses-rule-out-leadership-comeback-politics-live

  12. briefly @ #1556 Tuesday, February 27th, 2018 – 2:52 pm

    You campaign for a nominally-leftist outfit in Australia that is congenitally hostile to the organs and programs of working people; an outfit that is pure bourgeois radicalism but is in no sense a party of the left.

    Does DTT support an Australian political party? Which one? I thought she only posted pro-Putin/Trump propaganda, but I can’t say I bother reading it that closely.

  14. Player One says:
    Tuesday, February 27, 2018 at 3:02 pm
    briefly @ #1556 Tuesday, February 27th, 2018 – 2:52 pm

    You campaign for a nominally-leftist outfit in Australia that is congenitally hostile to the organs and programs of working people; an outfit that is pure bourgeois radicalism but is in no sense a party of the left.

    Does DTT support an Australian political party? Which one? I thought she only posted pro-Putin/Trump propaganda, but I can’t say I bother reading it that closely.

    They post in support of the bourgeois sect, the Greens.

  17. FWIW – high level discussion – I bought a packet of Tim Tams in an up-market shop in China – to discover they were made in Malaysia. Still tasted okay………………….Incidentally, I found “Rome” to be an entertaining series, though, as some have noted, Season 1 was better than Season 2. Plenty of gratuitous violence and sex of course – but hey, that’s seen as entertainment these days. “Rome” made “I Claudius” seem very prim and proper. For mine, having another look at “I Claudius” after “Rome”, I found the former rather dull and stiff.

  18. zoomster

    A while back on RN there was a doco about trade between Scandinavia and Scotland about the year 1000 (?) or so. Seems there was heaps and traders set up Scottish villages in Denmark and Sweden and ‘vicky verka’ . Also lots of Scots over there as hired mercenaries .

  19. KB – You are getting a bit of on-screen TV time at the moment!

    Another psephologist who could use a tidy up. Could be a TV show…..
    Queer Eye for the Psephologist Guy.

  21. DTT
    “One problem I have with all the Roman history is that it focuses so much on the early repubican period and we get very little stuff on the later Empire stuff, even though tjis was the period of expansion.”

    Most Roman expansion happened under the republic. Generals/senators often had a free hand to make war and annex territory, as a source of booty and prestige. Under the early empire (Principate), the emperors were wary of conquering new territory. The first emperor, Augustus, added Egypt (seized from Cleopatra) and tidied up the frontiers, but his attempt to add Germany to the empire was a disaster (Varus, etc).
    The majority of Augustus’ successors focused on consolidating Roman territory, not expanding it. Most emperors were insecure, and so reluctant to let their generals conquer new territory lest their success turned them into potential rivals. It was not unknown for jealous emperors to execute accomplished generals (e.g. Corbulo, killed by Nero). Emperor Trajan added new territory, but he campaigned in person. Most of his new provinces were more trouble than what they were worth; Hadrian abandoned Roman Mesopotamia (at the time in outright revolt against the Romans) soon after, and Aurelian relinquished Dacia (north of the Danube) in the third century.
    After that, the Roman empire started shedding territory – especially in the western half of the empire, which disintegrated during the fifth century. In 476 AD, even Italy was lost to the ‘barbarians’.

  22. daretotread. @ #1493 Tuesday, February 27th, 2018 – 1:25 pm

    don @ #1487 Tuesday, February 27th, 2018 – 12:20 pm

    poroti says:
    Tuesday, February 27, 2018 at 11:39 am

    Latvia has a v large ethnic Russian population so that may be the reason.

    ____________________

    So does Estonia. A very good friend of mine was born there and lives there, and thinks of himself as Russian. He says that is son-in-law is Estonian.

    Yes Donny boy

    Estonia and Latvia have very large RUSSIAN populations and also are Lutheran or Orthodox NOT Catholic. By contrast Lithuania does NOT. Hence my reason for distinguishing between the states.

    Can you understand this you arrogant person.

    Except you picked Latvia as different to the other two.
    But don’t let details, consistency and facts trouble you.

  23. bemused @ #1534 Tuesday, February 27th, 2018 – 1:17 pm

    daretotread. @ #1472 Tuesday, February 27th, 2018 – 1:04 pm

    Question @ #1458 Tuesday, February 27th, 2018 – 11:39 am

    Sorry DTT, no intention to be nasty.

    As we have often discussed in the past, some things you say baffle me (particularly about Trump).

    Question

    I fully understand how controversial my view on Trump is.
    —

    The main difference between myself and conventional “lefties” is that I fear nuclear war and do not believe that anyone in power in the USA has the capacity or common sense to avoid it. Hillary would have had next to zero chance of stopping it and advocated policies (no fly zones) that made it much more likely.

    Trump’s rhetoric was less confrontational. In the upshot however Trump has proved weak and powerless, so in reality the outcome has been pretty much the same anyway. I still cling to a vague hope that Trump will at least avoid a nuclear conflict with Russia. I am even less hopeful about China.

    So you alone among ‘lefties’ fear nuclear war and see next to zero chance of stopping it. I call BS!

    There is ‘still a vague hope that Trump will at least avoid nuclear conflict with Russia’ and you are less ‘hopeful about China’. I call BS on that too.

    You have a really weird view about the inevitability of nuclear war with out our saviour Trump.

    Bemused

    I would have more respect for your comments and you personally if you based your comments on knowledge.

    I am most definitely NOT alone amongst lefties and most of what I read comes from such lefty sites. Those of you who do not fear nuclear war are in my opinion simply stupid. No if no buts. Just thick headed.

    Sure the chance may still be low but the consequences are so server that only a mindless idiot would NOT fear it. Once again Bemused I refer to common or garden risk analysis. A Tie line would be fab but hard to put into English on a blog.

    So simple risk analysis usually has a 5 by five matrix. You could go more sensibly to a 10 by 10 when you think of nuclear war. So if you do a simple multiple (this is easiest to explain here but there are other methods. Now Bemused I know you do not understand Risk Analysis but I do it for a living in part so pull your ignorant head in.

    So let us take three global risks. Nuclear war between Russia and USA, Global warming and say a serious flu outbreak as well as a more limited regional “hot war of some kind, plus some other obvious kind of risk such as whooping cough epidemic or one that is a hot topic these days say sexual harassment in the workplace.

    Score for each on their likelihood Nuclear war 1, Major Flu outbreak 3 and global warming 8. Regional conflict in say the ME is already certain so also 10. Whooping cough is also around, but not everywhere so give it a 4. Sexual harassment is also around but does not affect everyone, so lets give it a 3. (men and old women are largely safe). You can argue these relationships but I doubt too many here would disagree much (other than ESJ).

    Then consider the consequences in deaths, or property destruction, both immediate and long term. Let us take global warming as the reference – flooding, famine, severe weather, major population dislocation. This would be long term. We will give it a 6. The flu outbreak while devastating in the short term will not lead to long term deaths as immunity/vaccination will allow us to address the issue. Minimal property damage. Lets score it at 3. Whooping cough is ghastly (I am passionately pro vaccination) but the numbers of actual dead are still very small. Much less than flue. Must be scored as a 2. a regional hot war as in the ME will kill lots of people – more than Whooping cough and probably more than the flu. Plus lots of property damage. Lets score it at 4. Sexual harassment will distress many and be damaging long term to mental health. Some may die, but less than whooping cough. so lets give it a 3. Then finally out nuclear war scenario. The consequences are horrendous. Have to be a 9 or 10 – 10 if it involves China, 9 if just Europe/US.

    So there you have it Let us do the scoring – You could of course replace the numbers with words. So a 10 by 10 risk is simply listed as extremely ghastly and impossible to contemplate and a 1 by 1 as Meh. In standard simple 5×5 risk matrices it is simply low, medium high and extreme. Let us just use numbers for now – simple multiple. (You could also simply order them 1-100 which is probably the “approved” method i a 5×5 matrix. So you minimize your risk by getting a 20 scored risk down to 16 etc or a 3 to a 1.

    So we have

    Global warming 8 by 6 =48 – High
    Flu epidemic 3×5 = 15 medium
    Whooping cough epidemic 4×2=8 low but still nasty
    Local war in the ME 10×4 =40 – High
    Nuclear war 1×9 =9 – low but not non existent
    Sexual harassment =3×3 low but still important.

    Now the point Bemused and others is that risk assessment is ALWAYS subjective but you are expected to have a clear rationale for your assessment of the likelihood of an event happening and the consequences if it should happen. In a workplace it determines whether you should place your emphasis on avoiding RSI or falls from ladders. if you are in an office environment obviously the RSI is much more likely and the ladders risk small, but on a building site it is the reverse.

    So Bemused and other doubters, by all means query the actual relative likelihood of an even and event the horror of the consequences, but do this FIRST before dumping on me. Then I might take your comments as reasoned and relevant.

  24. The Gubbies continued their sustained and vicious personal attacks against the LOTO today – all of it old hat.

    The Coalition’s problem is that on the day that QT shifted from Joyce it shifted to the NBN. The particular problem is that Turnbull is sitting pretty NBN-wise: feeds straight into memes of being out-of-touch. Every single business and individual who is being bastardized by the NBN will get this one without too much difficulty.

    And, no, it was not a good look for a brand new Deputy Prime Minister to be have to be answering questions on not registering his pecuniary interests properly.

  28. bemused @ #1572 Tuesday, February 27th, 2018 – 2:21 pm

    daretotread. @ #1493 Tuesday, February 27th, 2018 – 1:25 pm

    don @ #1487 Tuesday, February 27th, 2018 – 12:20 pm

    poroti says:
    Tuesday, February 27, 2018 at 11:39 am

    Latvia has a v large ethnic Russian population so that may be the reason.

    ____________________

    So does Estonia. A very good friend of mine was born there and lives there, and thinks of himself as Russian. He says that is son-in-law is Estonian.

    Yes Donny boy

    Estonia and Latvia have very large RUSSIAN populations and also are Lutheran or Orthodox NOT Catholic. By contrast Lithuania does NOT. Hence my reason for distinguishing between the states.

    Can you understand this you arrogant person.

    Except you picked Latvia as different to the other two.
    But don’t let details, consistency and facts trouble you.

    Yes bemused

    When I wrote it i was not trying to write a thesis nor be encyclopedic. I knew Latvia and Lithuania were very very different, but could not fully recall everything about Estonia. I was right to be cautious because Estonia is complex, largely because of the geographic location of its Russian population.

    In any case bilyl goat fairly obviously my ? marks indicated that the issue was flexible or I was uncertain. Gee Whiz bemused. try to pick on something of substance not pedantic nonsense.

  30. Peter Lewis of Essential:

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2018/feb/27/after-a-tabloid-storm-and-the-bonk-ban-voters-are-keen-to-move-on

    And the punch-line to the whole affair?

    The entire fortnight and a half frenzy moved votes not one bit. If anything, this week’s Essential poll actually has Labor’s primary vote down a tad and the party-preferred at 53-47 within the three point range it has been in for more than a year.

    If the Barnaby Joyce affair was a political car wreck, then the reality is that while we may have slowed down and had a gawk, we all kept driving in the same lane.

  34. estonia has close language to finns – all baltic states would be happy to be called nordic and do go in competitions etc under that banner

    DDT is playing to Putin’s script to fragment europe – pan european entity is good – if europe like all states are to be reformed it is within the national state – decentralised and regional governance – putin’s autocracy aims specifically to stop this – his is old fashioned national state romantic (dressing up corrupt plutocracy) and heaven know the last century has seen enough of those

  36. Tricot @ #1567 Tuesday, February 27th, 2018 – 3:11 pm

    FWIW – high level discussion – I bought a packet of Tim Tams in an up-market shop in China – to discover they were made in Malaysia. Still tasted okay………………….Incidentally, I found “Rome” to be an entertaining series, though, as some have noted, Season 1 was better than Season 2. Plenty of gratuitous violence and sex of course – but hey, that’s seen as entertainment these days. “Rome” made “I Claudius” seem very prim and proper. For mine, having another look at “I Claudius” after “Rome”, I found the former rather dull and stiff.

    Yes, ‘Campbells Cookies’ shut a lot of Arnotts factories and moved the production offshore.
    I have never bought an ‘Arnotts’ product since.

  39. daretotread. @ #1573 Tuesday, February 27th, 2018 – 3:23 pm

    bemused @ #1534 Tuesday, February 27th, 2018 – 1:17 pm

    daretotread. @ #1472 Tuesday, February 27th, 2018 – 1:04 pm

    Question @ #1458 Tuesday, February 27th, 2018 – 11:39 am

    Sorry DTT, no intention to be nasty.

    As we have often discussed in the past, some things you say baffle me (particularly about Trump).

    Question

    I fully understand how controversial my view on Trump is.
    —

    The main difference between myself and conventional “lefties” is that I fear nuclear war and do not believe that anyone in power in the USA has the capacity or common sense to avoid it. Hillary would have had next to zero chance of stopping it and advocated policies (no fly zones) that made it much more likely.

    Trump’s rhetoric was less confrontational. In the upshot however Trump has proved weak and powerless, so in reality the outcome has been pretty much the same anyway. I still cling to a vague hope that Trump will at least avoid a nuclear conflict with Russia. I am even less hopeful about China.

    So you alone among ‘lefties’ fear nuclear war and see next to zero chance of stopping it. I call BS!

    There is ‘still a vague hope that Trump will at least avoid nuclear conflict with Russia’ and you are less ‘hopeful about China’. I call BS on that too.

    You have a really weird view about the inevitability of nuclear war with out our saviour Trump.

    Bemused

    I would have more respect for your comments and you personally if you based your comments on knowledge.

    I am most definitely NOT alone amongst lefties and most of what I read comes from such lefty sites. Those of you who do not fear nuclear war are in my opinion simply stupid. No if no buts. Just thick headed.

    Sure the chance may still be low but the consequences are so server that only a mindless idiot would NOT fear it. Once again Bemused I refer to common or garden risk analysis. A Tie line would be fab but hard to put into English on a blog.

    So simple risk analysis usually has a 5 by five matrix. You could go more sensibly to a 10 by 10 when you think of nuclear war. So if you do a simple multiple (this is easiest to explain here but there are other methods. Now Bemused I know you do not understand Risk Analysis but I do it for a living in part so pull your ignorant head in.

    So let us take three global risks. Nuclear war between Russia and USA, Global warming and say a serious flu outbreak as well as a more limited regional “hot war of some kind, plus some other obvious kind of risk such as whooping cough epidemic or one that is a hot topic these days say sexual harassment in the workplace.

    Score for each on their likelihood Nuclear war 1, Major Flu outbreak 3 and global warming 8. Regional conflict in say the ME is already certain so also 10. Whooping cough is also around, but not everywhere so give it a 4. Sexual harassment is also around but does not affect everyone, so lets give it a 3. (men and old women are largely safe). You can argue these relationships but I doubt too many here would disagree much (other than ESJ).

    Then consider the consequences in deaths, or property destruction, both immediate and long term. Let us take global warming as the reference – flooding, famine, severe weather, major population dislocation. This would be long term. We will give it a 6. The flu outbreak while devastating in the short term will not lead to long term deaths as immunity/vaccination will allow us to address the issue. Minimal property damage. Lets score it at 3. Whooping cough is ghastly (I am passionately pro vaccination) but the numbers of actual dead are still very small. Much less than flue. Must be scored as a 2. a regional hot war as in the ME will kill lots of people – more than Whooping cough and probably more than the flu. Plus lots of property damage. Lets score it at 4. Sexual harassment will distress many and be damaging long term to mental health. Some may die, but less than whooping cough. so lets give it a 3. Then finally out nuclear war scenario. The consequences are horrendous. Have to be a 9 or 10 – 10 if it involves China, 9 if just Europe/US.

    So there you have it Let us do the scoring – You could of course replace the numbers with words. So a 10 by 10 risk is simply listed as extremely ghastly and impossible to contemplate and a 1 by 1 as Meh. In standard simple 5×5 risk matrices it is simply low, medium high and extreme. Let us just use numbers for now – simple multiple. (You could also simply order them 1-100 which is probably the “approved” method i a 5×5 matrix. So you minimize your risk by getting a 20 scored risk down to 16 etc or a 3 to a 1.

    So we have

    Global warming 8 by 6 =48 – High
    Flu epidemic 3×5 = 15 medium
    Whooping cough epidemic 4×2=8 low but still nasty
    Local war in the ME 10×4 =40 – High
    Nuclear war 1×9 =9 – low but not non existent
    Sexual harassment =3×3 low but still important.

    Now the point Bemused and others is that risk assessment is ALWAYS subjective but you are expected to have a clear rationale for your assessment of the likelihood of an event happening and the consequences if it should happen. In a workplace it determines whether you should place your emphasis on avoiding RSI or falls from ladders. if you are in an office environment obviously the RSI is much more likely and the ladders risk small, but on a building site it is the reverse.

    So Bemused and other doubters, by all means query the actual relative likelihood of an even and event the horror of the consequences, but do this FIRST before dumping on me. Then I might take your comments as reasoned and relevant.

    It wasn’t really necessary, but you have proven yet again, that you do not understand risk analysis.
    Try AS-4360.

  41. guytaur says:
    Tuesday, February 27, 2018 at 2:58 pm
    Reuters: JUST IN: Joseph Yun, chief U.S. negotiator with North Korea, announces retirement , cites personal reasons: U.S. state department pic.twitter.com/KKj92QiSpz

    There you go DTT.

    Trump brings us another step closer to nuclear war

    There will not be a war on the Korean Peninsula. There is alarmist posturing. There are threats and counter-threats. Inasmuch as it serves the interest of the regime in Pyongyang to talk up the US threat, it also serves the interests of the US regime to talk up the menace posed by their counter-weights. This is all just so much theatre aimed at the easily-gulled.

    The status quo has persisted for more years than I have been alive. It will go on for many more yet.

  42. Tricot

    The last time I watched ‘I, Claudius’ I found it the same – ‘stiff’.

    Tv series in those days didn’t have the same production qualities as are available with digital recording and that ages them as well.

  44. The maturity of politics in NZ:

    http://insidestory.org.au/is-minority-government-the-path-to-power-for-tasmanian-labor/

    Across the Tasman, a precedent exists for a stable minority government supported by the Greens. Jacinda Ardern, a new Labour leader herself, has created an innovative “inside-out” cabinet, with conservative New Zealand First ministers inside cabinet and Greens ministers on the outside. This keeps the Greens at arm’s length in order to satisfy New Zealand First, who would have supported a conservative government rather than tolerate working in cabinet with the Greens. Ardern relies on a confidence-and-supply deal with the Green Party’s eight MPs. The Greens have three ministerial roles and an under-secretarial position outside cabinet, and join cabinet discussions only as needed.

    f the Tasmanian Liberals do fall short of a majority and refuse to, or can’t, govern in minority, the governor would turn to Rebecca White. She could strike a similar “inside-out” deal with the Greens, keeping them outside cabinet but still sharing the ministerial load. This would give the Greens some policy control, but keep them at sufficient distance to satisfy supporters of both parties. Otherwise Labor may strike a lesser confidence-and-supply agreement in return for policy concessions, and beyond this seek vote-by-vote support in parliament.

    If the Liberals are returned with a majority, Labor will be looking at a two-term return to government while trying to keep its anti-pokies policy alive. But a Liberal minority government would be inherently unstable and probably shortlived.

    For Rebecca White, forming minority government would be a trial by fire, but one that Jacinda Ardern has handled well in more complex circumstances. With a Greens alliance to negotiate and maintain, her pokies policy to implement, and anti–minority government sentiment to repel, White would be dancing on hot coals for years.

  45. bemused @ #1590 Tuesday, February 27th, 2018 – 2:45 pm

    daretotread. @ #1578 Tuesday, February 27th, 2018 – 3:29 pm

    In any case bilyl goat fairly obviously my ? marks indicated that the issue was flexible or I was uncertain. Gee Whiz bemused. try to pick on something of substance not pedantic nonsense.

    So now you introduce the concept of ‘flexible facts’!
    I see the appeal of Trump to you.

    Did you actually READ my post?. Where did I claim it was fact? It was a discussion on suggested groupings. Honestly matey try to read for context. It was pretty bloody obvious to anyone who can read anything harder than” My little goat.” Not even particularly controversial I thought. Not a mention of Trump, Putin or aliens.

  47. I did not follow other posters
    But W Bowe did not publish Essential poll of The Guardian
    It is 53-47 in favour of ALP. Frankly that is not good enough.
    According to EP, ALP primary is 35%. What is happening here. We have huge scandal on LNP side and still it is 53-47.
    According to another poll today, LP should get majority In Tasmania even though ALP has good premier candidate.
    Can anyone of you give any reasons for that?

  48. “Western Sydney Wanderers Red and Black Bloc fans banned from stand for flares lit in derby”

    Can any of the PB round ball football fans explain the fascination fans of that sport seem to have for flares?

  49. CTar1 and DTT,

    Shetland – Just finished watching the last episode yesterday….didn’t guess who dun it.

    For relaxation I have been watching old episodes of Columbo…terrific…no real blood and gore by today’s standards…one mind pitted against another….good stuff.

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