ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor

More evidence that the Barnaby Joyce saga has shut out the Coalition’s glimmer of polling sunlight at the start of the year.

The latest ReachTEL poll for Sky News is the Coalition’s worst result from that pollster this term, showing Labor with a two-party lead of 54-46, out from 52-48 at the previous poll on January 25. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down a point to 33%, Labor is up one to 37%, the Greens are up one to 11% and One Nation are down one to 7%. Malcolm Turnbull’s lead on the forced response preferred prime minister question is 53-47, down from 54-46. The poll was conducted on Thursday, the evening before Barnaby Joyce’s resignation: it found 57% thought he should indeed resign, against 32% who thought he should remain. A question on who should be Nationals leader had Joyce on 23%, Bridget McKenzie on 15%, Michael McCormack on 11%, Darren Chester on 6% and “don’t know” a formidable 40%.

UPDATE: As noted in comments, the Coalition have done well to make it to 54-46 on ReachTEL’s respondent-allocated two-party preferred result. If 2016 election preference flows are applied, the result is around 55.5-44.5.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,838 comments on “ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. Talking cultural matters am just now reading a book about the Jeremy Thorpe case which is both well written and informative – and amusing.

    One quote i found amusing was from Lord Arran who was a badger loving Lord who had promoted the case for legalising homosexuality apparently in honour of his brother who had been gay.

    When asked why he had been more successful in getting his case for homosexual law reform through the House of Lords than of his many efforts for legislation to protect badgers he replied”There are not many badgers in the house of Lords)

    The other snippet I found fascinating was the description of a newly minted Liberal MP from the highlands. He spoke ONLY Gaelic. This was in the 1960s. I found it hard to believe that someone could still be so isolated in post radio WWII Europe.

  2. CTar1 @ #1500 Tuesday, February 27th, 2018 – 12:36 pm

    dtt

    I was surprised to learn that Pompei had an extremely porno fertility cult

    And was considered just far enough out of town (Rome) you could go there for a naughty week away and it wasn’t mentioned in ‘polite society’!

    Yes but i do not think this was taught in my High School social studies (smiley)

  3. Now that we are talking Roman crime fiction. Marcus Didius Falco (and now his daughter Flavia Alba), by Lindsey Davis are great fun.

    For an earlier time, the series about Gordianus the Finder is also good reading, by Steven Saylor. The more recent ones have Gordianus as a young’un about 88 BCE. Gordianus is seen (in earlier books) with Cicero, about 80 BCE. His later career he is involved with Julius up to 46 BCE. We are hopeful for Caesar’s assassination yet! The latest book has just been published!

    http://www.stevensaylor.com/RomaSubRosa.html

  4. https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/politics-live-malcolm-turnbull-tries-to-shake-off-barnaby-joyce-saga-20180227-h0wouo.html

    “But I make it clear that, whilst there are many things to admire about the United States, our closest ally in terms of security that we do not want an American-style wages system in this country, that we do not want an American-style healthcare system, and we do not want an American tax system where the principle of trickle-down economics – if you look after the richest and most powerful in society, that through the largesse and generosity, that they will then look after everyone else.”

    Interesting comments from Bill Shorten to his caucus.

    Doesn’t align with Bowens intentions down the track re company tax cuts.

    Mixed messages from the ALP on coal and now tax. Be straight with us Bill !

  5. Is this a good time to mention the previous Dr Who took his form from a Roman at Pompeii he met right before Vesuvius blew up?

  6. Ophuph Hucksake

    People curious about day to day life in ancient Rome could do worse than sample the series of detective novels featuring Marcus Didius Falco

    I read a couple of these yonks ago.

    Good long flight reading.

  7. LU not logged in @ #1496 Tuesday, February 27th, 2018 – 12:33 pm

    I have a very good Russian Estonian friend. She was out of Estonia when the Estonian language test required to gain citizenship was conducted, and doesn’t speak Estonian in any case.

    So she found herself stateless working in Israel. She’s not Jewish. What to do?

    A very kind work colleague married her. He was not the marrying kind, if you know what I mean, but did have joint US and Israeli citizenship.

    She then had to stay in Israel for the requisite number of years (which wasn’t an issue because her employer thought she was tops).

    I met her when she moved to the UK after her “divorce”. She ended up married to another Israeli, has a couple of kids and a top career at Cambridge. Never been back to Tallinn.

    The take away for me is that Baltic history is complicated!

    Yes it seems that Estonia is the country that is most hostile to its Russian demographic. In fact its international publications seem to deny the existence of its Russian speakers. However it seems that Talinn and other urban centres are very, very Russian indeed with one province being 72% Russian.

    Politically this is very sensitive I assume, because should there ever be a real war between Russia and the west, Estonia could not count on loyalty within its largest cities. This is pretty bloody scary since the possibility of mass ethnic cleansing is always a risk in such a situation. Perhaps more relevantly Russia could use persecution of this population as a rationale for invasion (as the US has done against Assad).

  8. Sweden was a major naval power. In 1628 they launched a new flagship, a ‘ship of the line ‘. Given the expense it was the equivalent of a nuclear powered aircraft carrier or a WWII battleship.

    It sank after sailing 1300 meters, still in the harbour.

    Radio National had an excellent program on it.

    Around 4:00 PM on August 10th, 1628 the warship Vasa set sail in Stockholm harbor on
    its maiden voyage as the newest ship in the Royal Swedish Navy. After sailing about
    1300 meters, a light gust of wind caused the Vasa to heel over on its side. Water poured
    in through the gun portals and the ship sank with a loss of 53 lives. The Vasa lay in
    shallow waters of Stockholm harbor (at 32 meters depth) and after initial attempts to
    salvage it failed, was largely forgotten until it was located by Anders Franzen in 1956 [1].
    In 1961, 333 years after it sank, the Vasa was raised and was so well preserved that it
    could float after the gun portals were sealed and water and mud were pumped from it

  9. Another expected but true (well Wikipedia), historical fact.
    The last time Vesuvius erupted was in 1944 when the allies were advancing up the spine of Italy.

  10. DTT
    “So we know lots about the Caesars but nothing much about the later guys.”

    In part this is because we have the benefit of a lot of surviving literature about the early Principate, especially the Julio-Claudian and Flavian dynasties. The Antonine period is more patchy (including the reigns of Trajan and Hadrian). The empire reached its greatest geographical extent under Trajan, but his campaigns are poorly documented. His successor Hadrian gave up most of Trajan’s new provinces – Rome’s conquests across the Euphrates (taken from Parthia) weren’t worth the expense.
    The third century was wretched for the Empire – there was a high turnover of soldier emperors, and not much surviving records regarding their reigns. Things improve under Diocletian (unless you were a Christian) and Constantine (despite the civil wars). Things go downhill again in the fifth century in the western half of the empire. Unfortunately, much of the surviving literature from this period is ecclesiastical more than political or military.
    In the sixth century the eastern (Byzantine) emperor Justinian succeeded in reconquering much of the former western empire, including Italy. But these campaigns merely brought misery to the inhabitants.

  11. Funny how Scottish that Roman was

    Someone say Scottish?
    Nobody noticed this when I posted it on Sunday. So damn you, here it is again, the scots singing the Flower of Scotland in a field prior to a recent rugby game when they beat the English.
    Turn it up loud….
    https://streamable.com/5nued

  12. Perhaps from the lost 9th legion

    I loved the Rosemary Sutcliffe novels as a kid. They were always chasing that lost ninth in Scotland.

    Also on Doctor Who last year!

  13. John R,

    The Vaasa museum in Stockholm is one of the best. The ship is much more intact than the Queen Mary at Portsmouth.

    Both are fascinating. And how many saliors couldn’t swim!!

    Also, all through northern Germany, Poland, Lithuania and the Baltic are so called “Swedish ramparts.” Their 17th C military efforts were so brutal that there is little history of what was there before them.

  14. Simon Katich @ #1520 Tuesday, February 27th, 2018 – 1:03 pm

    Funny how Scottish that Roman was

    Someone say Scottish?
    Nobody noticed this when I posted it on Sunday. So damn you, here it is again, the scots singing the Flower of Scotland in a field prior to a recent rugby game when they beat the English.
    Turn it up loud….
    https://streamable.com/5nued

    Thinking Scotland and Scandinavia as we have today, and watching “shetland” on ABC, how many realise that Shetland was practically part of Scandinavia and that the original language was a form of old Norse. I sort of knew it about the Orkneys but knew next to nothing bout Shetland (other than ponies)

  15. Ah, Amy:

    Scott Morrison is up with the next dixer. Also known as the perfect time to examine your existential crisis and what steps you took in life to bring you to this moment.

    #deathtodixers

  16. kakuru @ #1518 Tuesday, February 27th, 2018 – 1:02 pm

    DTT
    “So we know lots about the Caesars but nothing much about the later guys.”

    In part this is because we have the benefit of a lot of surviving literature about the early Principate, especially the Julio-Claudian and Flavian dynasties. The Antonine period is more patchy (including the reigns of Trajan and Hadrian). The empire reached its greatest geographical extent under Trajan, but his campaigns are poorly documented. His successor Hadrian gave up most of Trajan’s new provinces – Rome’s conquests across the Euphrates (taken from Parthia) weren’t worth the expense.
    The third century was wretched for the Empire – there was a high turnover of soldier emperors, and not much surviving records regarding their reigns. Things improve under Diocletian (unless you were a Christian) and Constantine (despite the civil wars). Things go downhill again in the fifth century in the western half of the empire. Unfortunately, much of the surviving literature from this period is ecclesiastical more than political or military.
    In the sixth century the eastern (Byzantine) emperor Justinian succeeded in reconquering much of the former western empire, including Italy. But these campaigns merely brought misery to the inhabitants.

    Thanks Kakuru

    Very interesting

  17. daretotread,
    You are one nasty piece of work. How dare you say Cameron has a psycopathic personality!

    What that says about you is more than it could ever say about Cameron.

  18. daretotread. @ #1472 Tuesday, February 27th, 2018 – 1:04 pm

    Question @ #1458 Tuesday, February 27th, 2018 – 11:39 am

    Sorry DTT, no intention to be nasty.

    As we have often discussed in the past, some things you say baffle me (particularly about Trump).

    Question

    I fully understand how controversial my view on Trump is.

    The main difference between myself and conventional “lefties” is that I fear nuclear war and do not believe that anyone in power in the USA has the capacity or common sense to avoid it. Hillary would have had next to zero chance of stopping it and advocated policies (no fly zones) that made it much more likely.

    Trump’s rhetoric was less confrontational. In the upshot however Trump has proved weak and powerless, so in reality the outcome has been pretty much the same anyway. I still cling to a vague hope that Trump will at least avoid a nuclear conflict with Russia. I am even less hopeful about China.

    So you alone among ‘lefties’ fear nuclear war and see next to zero chance of stopping it. I call BS!

    There is ‘still a vague hope that Trump will at least avoid nuclear conflict with Russia’ and you are less ‘hopeful about China’. I call BS on that too.

    You have a really weird view about the inevitability of nuclear war with out our saviour Trump.

  19. Here’s today’s picture of the rooster who became a feather duster:

    ?w=780&q=20&auto=format&usm=12&fit=max&dpr=2&s=78a1638d82e641a0cd6992150c0280fd

  20. Such self-indulgent behaviour from the Lib-Lab duopoly in QT.

    They clearly have little interest in those outside their bubble… everyday Australians.

    Neither are deserving of your vote.

  21. I, Claudius

    A next door neighbour who was a talented amateur artist made one of these for each of the Roman Senators. This one developed some cracks around the nose after it was ‘fired’ and was discarded.

    A full set was subtly painted, glazed and mounted on a block of clear lacquered pine with a stainless rod to make them stand upright.

    Sold as a set for quite a bit of money to a private collector.

    https://postimg.org/image/imxbla9gl/

  22. The film ‘Local Hero’ makes it clear how close the Scots and Russians are (geographically speaking).

    I have a friend who is Lithuanian-Scot. Apparently this isn’t unusual.

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