Essential Research was the only national poll of federal voting intention this week, and it’s made all but zero difference to the headline numbers on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. However, the YouGov Galaxy poll from Queensland has made a very substantial difference, reversing the 52-48 lead recorded to Labor there and knocking five off their seat projection. Conversely, the shallow pool of data from Western Australia since polling resumed for the year has pushed Labor’s lead there well above what seems plausible, added three to their seat tally with the latest update. I’m sure this will moderate over the coming weeks. The other changes this week are a gain for Labor in Victoria and a loss in South Australia. Exciting developments are looming in the world of BludgerTrack in a week or (more likely) two, so do stay tuned.
In other poll news, today’s Fairfax papers have a ReachTEL poll of New England, which finds 43% of its voters still intending to vote for Barnaby Joyce, compared with 65% at the December 2 by-election. However, Tony Windsor was included as a speculative response option, recording 26.1% support, with Labor on 12.1%. However, opinion is divided as to whether he should remain as Nationals leader and Deputy Prime Minister, favoured by 45.3%, or resign either from the front bench (26.7%) or from parliament altogether (20.5%).
So.
1) GC shows his power (guns, you know).
2) GC promotes BJ in a tweet (bit of a whine, but nevertheless).
3) BJ pats GC on the back and promotes himself into the bargain.
And the context is a re-org of the Nats. Hmm.
“I wonder what their next bumble will be? ”
On recent form you will only have to wait until Thursday or Friday to find that out.
And it will probably not be whatever you may be expecting now.
imacca:
That long?
The way things are going, I’d be surprised if the Coalition makes it to midday tomorrow without somehow shooting themselves in the foot again.
Good point Pedant at 10:39. And I agree with Boerwar re Shorten. In my mind he is Labor’s best leader since Keating. He does the hard yards and is very strong on policy with a good political ear.
I am happy with 53/47. It’s a solid result, not flaky. I suspect the Newspoll after will also be the same or perhaps 54/46 when all this washes through. The Govt is on a loser with the Joyce affair. If Joyce goes there will be residual bitterness towards Turnbull and the Libs. I can’t see Turnbull getting any kudos out of this.
The Code stuff is puritanical cods wallop. Laughable.
Really, that tweetfest love between Barnaby and George? What a couple of sooky men.
Grow up fellas. Yes parliament house might be babies at 50 paces at present, but that doesn’t mean it’s turned into a nursery overnight.
rossmcg @ #2492 Sunday, February 18th, 2018 – 10:32 pm
Yes, the epithet ‘little’ was never about his physical stature as most people seem to think. More about his thinking.
As others have said, ‘Bonk Ban Barnaby’ has created a lot of entertainment but it’s not sex that will determine the fate of this government. It’s when the multitude of bad policies, incompetent administration, blatant bias towards some groups and against others, register with voters at the ballot box.
In the meantime, yet another 53-47 Newspoll heading rapidly to the magic number of 30.
The people who say/said that Sanders would not have won, because he is too left wing, tend to be the same people who said that Corbyn was going to get Labour crushed in the 2017 election, because he is too left wing. Corbyn running a good campaign and the discipline of the campaign significantly reducing the infighting meant Labour had a much improved result and are in a good position to win next time.
i wonder how this impacts on the Han Mandate of Heaven??
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/feb/18/jokhang-temple-fire-engulfs-ancient-heart-of-tibetan-buddhism
Boerwar @ #2482 Sunday, February 18th, 2018 – 10:20 pm
Thank you, Boerwar for saying that about Bill and the team. 🙂
Now, can we have those 22 points back!?! 😉
the nationals are spoilt brats – turnbull is reaping the weeds he sowed with that pernicious agreement – what is in that thing? did it go to an election? it is beautiful and deserved karma that two egos, pumped up by a seditous undisclosed document, fall
I would have backed Sander’s over Trump. Sensible Sander’s supporters backed Hillary. The stupid one’s didn’t.
BW,
Spot on about Shorten’s ‘luck’.
It’s about time the CPG started giving Turnbull some credit for his.
BW,
Spot on about Shorten’s ‘luck’.
It’s about time the CPG started giving Turnbull some credit for his ‘bad luck’.
BW,
Spot on about Shorten’s ‘luck’.
It’s about time the CPG started giving Turnbull some credit for his ‘bad luck’.
If rumours of a Nats partyroom leadership meeting are true then I think Darren Chester needs to nominate for the leadership. He’s the sanest of the lot of them and has proven ministerial track record.
My all time favourite Nat leader was the one who came after Tim Fischer. There hasn’t been a Nat like him in the federal parliament since, but perhaps Chester can come close.
Sorry about that. I kept pressing ‘post’ because nothing was happening.
Also, Murdoch tabloids are reporting tomorrow that a Nat party room challenge is being organised.
Channel 7 News fleshed this out a little bit more tonight. Apparently, it’s on, but the Nats are going to take soundings in their electorates, and the Senators in their State, over the next week to see what their voters think about the idea of giving Barnaby Joyce the royal order of the boot, then come back Monday week and sort it.
Trog Sorrenson says Sunday, February 18, 2018 at 10:19 pm
Hillary would have beaten Trump according to the polling.
My all time favourite Nat leader was the one who came after Tim Fischer. There hasn’t been a Nat like him in the federal parliament since, but perhaps Chester can come close.
John Anderson?
I’m glad this poll wasn’t a blowout to Labor, either. Mainly due to the old saying, ‘what goes up, must come down’, and so any future reductions may have served to be painted as Turnbull resurrecting himself, again. This way, if Labor can hang on around this mark, then it looks more solid, more real, more doable at an election.
Sanders would have beaten Trump according to the polling.
Hillary would have beaten Trump according to the polling.
Trump would have beaten Trump according to the polling.
——-
What is the medical term for obsessing over irrelevant foreign politicians?
Yes and perhaps the MOST depressing thing for them is their 36% PV, with Labor on 37%. They will never win an election with a PV that low.
C@tmomma @ #2520 Sunday, February 18th, 2018 – 11:13 pm
Obviously someone memorable.
C@t:
Yes that’s him. He didn’t have to fake talk like an idiot to hide his education like Barnaby does, and my recollection of him was that he had class.
Caring.
Sanders beat Trump by more in the polling and had an appeal to ordinary voters and campaigning skills that would likely have made him more resistant to the vote drop in rust belt states than cost Clinton victory.
Most of the polling was on the overall national vote, where Clinton did beat Trump.
Caring?
May i call this Bullshit?
What about all the other poor widdle politicians, from countries other than the USofA, who failed to get their “precious”?
You have shown no care there.
Unfortunately the public don’t get a vote in the Nat party room.
equal or not?
Polisopsephomania?
Polisopsephomania?
Not sure that is a word, but probably needed in a blog suffering such a blight.
EoN,
You can call it what you like. The POTUS affects everyone.
Question
“The POTUS affects everyone.”
How absurd, unless of course you belong to the religion.
EoN
No more absurd than demanding people have to express an opinion on every country on earth to have an opinion about Trump
Question
If you should become an Australian, Xi Jinping, Shinzo Abe, Joko Widodo, Jacinta Ardern etc are far more “affective”.
Wow, reading that Washington Post stuff about the Russian infiltration of the American consciousness prior to the 2016 presidential election, is pretty depressing. It seems so logical when you read about how they did it, and probably still do, and so devastatingly effective, yet so easy for them to do. Just like anyone who analyses data for a living, and then uses the data to colour their responses to it. Then just kept refining their methodology.
How do you counter it? That is the $64 dollar question.
Question @ #2534 Sunday, February 18th, 2018 – 11:34 pm
Well we can only play the part of observers and make comments.
Unfortunately, some seem to have got a bit carried away as if they think they are players. Nope.
C@tmomma @ #2536 Sunday, February 18th, 2018 – 11:37 pm
It is very modest compared to US interference in numerous other countries since WWII.
Now it is known, it can be countered and I doubt any other US campaign will want to be implicated.
I’m not sure why people refer to a shift within MOE as though it is somehow meaningless. If the sample is 1640 and result is 52-48 then there is a 95% chance that the result is between 49.5-50.5 and 54.5-45.5. If the result is 53-47 there is a 95% chance that the result is between 50.5-49.5 and 55.5-44.5. I know which I would rather have.
Pollsters seem to be reducing variability of results by careful selection and weighting. No other explanation as to why randomness of Newspoll is so low, for example. And I know there are rounded fractions and that PB which has an effective sample size much greater is even more accurate.
Funny that, I have expressed an opinion on all of those, even though none of them are nutters of the Trump order.
C@t:
Yes reading about it all after the fact it all sounds so easy.
What a shame most people are just sheep, effectively believing whatever crap turns up in their facebook or twitter timeline.
Question @ #2540 Sunday, February 18th, 2018 – 11:40 pm
Yes. Trump is in a class of his own.
equal or not?
Of course it’s not a word, but I built it up using the (I think) Greek base words. I forgot to add overseas though… so how about:
Xenopolisopsephomania
(xeno = foreign, poliso = politics, psepho = winning elections, mania = self-explanatory)
Re Hawke. The first time I met Bob Hawke in the flesh was back in his ACTU days in about 1973. I had just walked into the “News Bar” of the long lost Wellington Hotel to meet some of my mates when I discovered one of them about to give Hawke a punch in the mouth for abusing the old Salvo guy who regularly collected there. Hawkes usual muscle, a former NT cop of very robust build was in the next room attending to another person whom Hawke had just managed to abuse somehow. Anyway, I managed to convince my mate that nothing good would come from belting Bob. Half an hour or so when tensions had been disolved by alcohol Hawke came over and spoke to me and was as nice as pie. Showed what a nice bloke he could be when he settled down.
Later my wife was a fairly long term Dept Liaison Officer (DLO) when Hawke became PM and so we got to see quite a bit of him. Off the grog by then he was a great bloke.
He was, by a long shot the greatest PM since WW11, albeit without the social transformation of the Great Gough!
Be interesting to see how much movement in the NEXT polls?? Interesting in that the poll numbers seem to me to be set in concrete?? That has to be a worry for the Libs.
I mean, there has been bad bad juju happening for them over the last couple of weeks…but only a within MOE change in the polls. Cant actually remember when something good has happened for them that might boost their poll #’s?? At least nothing Malcolm hasn’t borked up almost as soon as its happened.
Anyway little movement either way regardless of whats happening would indicate to me that people have well and truly made up their minds, and currently rather disengaged, and there is no good news for the Libs or Turnbull. And if they are pinning their recovery hopes on a budget with tax cut for the big end of town……..FFS this lot are dim. 🙁
Wakefield:
My understanding, from using psychometric statistics involving confidence intervals in a professional context, is that the 95% confidence intervals do not represent the range of values the true result is 95% likely to fall within; but rather, represent a range of values that is 95% likely to contain the true result. There is a subtle, but distinct, difference.
Bemused,
It’s the bat-shit crazy that makes him so notable.
I can’t remember any other POTUS who got a regular slot on the evening news.
“There is absolutely no doubt in any rational person’s mind that Sanders kept going long past the point at which he had decisively lost the primaries and that Clinton was going to be the Democrat candidate.”
Oh the painful irony of a Hillary supporter complaining about a candidate continuing after it was clear they had lost. Even Hillary admitted she was only staying in the race against Obama on the chance he might meet a sticky end.
Mr N
You are correct. There is a distinction.
“The POTUS affects everyone.”
———–
According to chaos theory, even an insignificant old man like me in Australia, “affects everyone” too.
But you obviously mean that your POTUS is way above that. He is a sort of God or demi-God. As you say, in your mind, He affects EVERYONE.
He is like the climate, the sun, the air. No one is un-affected.
Is that everyone that ever lived and who is yet to live?
The parallels between Potuses and Roman Emporers have been made by others.
Questions deliberate deification of the Potus is new to me, though i have long suspected it.
I realise, like many religions I find it dangerous to what i hope for my country, i am obliged to “respect” your beliefs.