BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor

ReachTEL polls New England, as the headline numbers from BludgerTrack poll aggregate record little change.

Essential Research was the only national poll of federal voting intention this week, and it’s made all but zero difference to the headline numbers on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. However, the YouGov Galaxy poll from Queensland has made a very substantial difference, reversing the 52-48 lead recorded to Labor there and knocking five off their seat projection. Conversely, the shallow pool of data from Western Australia since polling resumed for the year has pushed Labor’s lead there well above what seems plausible, added three to their seat tally with the latest update. I’m sure this will moderate over the coming weeks. The other changes this week are a gain for Labor in Victoria and a loss in South Australia. Exciting developments are looming in the world of BludgerTrack in a week or (more likely) two, so do stay tuned.

In other poll news, today’s Fairfax papers have a ReachTEL poll of New England, which finds 43% of its voters still intending to vote for Barnaby Joyce, compared with 65% at the December 2 by-election. However, Tony Windsor was included as a speculative response option, recording 26.1% support, with Labor on 12.1%. However, opinion is divided as to whether he should remain as Nationals leader and Deputy Prime Minister, favoured by 45.3%, or resign either from the front bench (26.7%) or from parliament altogether (20.5%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,554 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor”

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  1. Nicholas,

    I severely doubt you read Hillary’s book. I did. It was very introspective and analytical. You are in denial if you think all those factors didn’t have any affect on the result.

    As far as sulking is concerned, she attended Trump’s inauguration, ffs!

  2. Given the stability of Newspoll a 1% shift isn’t surprising, disappointing but not surprising .
    Roll on the next one, I can’t see it being 52-48.

  3. SK

    Newspoll has received a letter from Malcolm Turnbull complaining that a poll this weekend would not be fair and balanced.

    😆

  4. I spose it’ll take some time for the individual sheeple voter’s scant population of neurons to find each other, and draw some relevant conclusions from the events of the past week.

  5. While many were hoping for a 58-42. I tend to think 53-47 to the ALP is pretty close to the mark on what would happen in a general election.
    Is this number 27 for Malcolm ?…….

  6. Kevin Bonham posts

    #Newspoll full primaries L-NP 36 ALP 37 Green 10 PHON 8 others 9. 2 points lost to PHON last fortnight returns to sender.

  7. Good evening all,

    65% of voters think Barnaby should go and Malcolm is out today saying how the relationship is fine and he is happy to work with Barnaby.

    Interesting.

    Cheers.

  8. Was expecting 54, but still a decent result. Barnabygate will continue to damage as it drags on.

    Pretty damaging on the PPM. The incumbent advantage would have to be more than 7 normally.

  9. DTT, Turley days there is no mention of collusion in THIS indictment. Did you not read my post? Just because Mueller does one thing it doesn’t mean he isn’t sitting on lots of other evidence. Why would a skilled prosecutor like him reveal the cards he is holding? PS: I have watched Turley over the last year or so on CNN and he has consistently been a Trump apologist regards Trump Russia and is pretty much ‘meh’ about it. His ambivalence to Trump Russia may be explained by the fact he is a libertarian. There would be 10 former prosecutors or constitutional experts to Turley’s one that disagree with him.

  10. The test will be the NEXT Newspoll. It takes a while for things to filter through.

    It could also be that this is a correction from the strong Coalition poll last time.

  11. The Phon up 3 has to be a bad sample? There is mention in the Benson story of more regional areas surveyed? At 1632 sample, this is higher than the normal sample

    Perhaps going for a better sample to test how bad BeetRooterGate was going in the Bush, the banjo vote has been bloated?

    All speculation

  12. Guns serve two purposes: To create immediate and lasting fear, and to kill. A gun in your hand is the ultimate in individual power. That power is naked, brutal, immediate and deliberate. By his use of a gun GC has demonstrated power, for every dog in the yard to witness. Words are not enough.

  13. ‘MB
    BW, are you suggesting that nobody should have run against Hillary in the primaries? Because she was the anointed successor to Obama by dint of her status – like that of Grace Mugabe and Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma – as having been the wife of a previous President? ‘

    I am not suggesting anything.

    I am stating that the net effect of Sanders was to help significantly get Trump into the White House.

    Just like the net effect of the Greens is to help Turnbull into the Lodge.

    If the Russians can figure that out, even the Greens ought to be able to figure it out.

  14. Interesting result. Not as high as I would have hoped, but its still Turnbull’s 27th bad Newspoll and would still equate to a landslide Labor victory at an election.

    Those approval and PPM figures suggest that – even if it hasn’t really moved the TPP yet – the public have a pretty low opinion of both Joyce’s conduct and Turnbull’s handling of the mess.

  15. We are. Pathetic.

    Yes. Yes we are.

    But I’m not completely surprised. I did think this would get a reaction, but speculated the public is just so completely switched off nothing much would change.

    Set in concrete. Pathetic, but after the last decade understandable.

  16. the primary votes could be interesting – my guess is aust conservatives, PHON and ‘other’ will have gone up at the expense of LNP. I am surprised it isn’t 54:46 or 55:45 – shorten is lead in labor’s saddlebags. But he’s also one of the luckiest LOTE ever – he can just sit back and let the circus that is the LNP so their thing (think circus as in Rome, not Ashtons, Silvers, Oz or PT Barnum – although they do have a lot of clowns).

  17. sprocket,

    I suppose there is always another way to look at things.

    If more regional areas were included than is normal then it is interesting the labor vote has held up so well.

    Cheers.

  18. VE

    Barnabygate will continue to damage as it drags on.

    Yep. Even if Joyce ends up on the backbench the events of the last week or so won’t be forgotten for some time.

    I can’t see McManus as leader of the Nats either so I think Chester will have to be it for the Nats.

  19. #Newspoll full primaries L-NP 36 ALP 37 Green 10 PHON 8 others 9. 2 points lost to PHON last fortnight returns to sender.

    So I get ALP = 37 + 8.3 + 3.2 + 4.5 = 53, assuming PHON splits 60-40 Coalition and others 50-50. Although maybe the ‘lost’ Liberal votes went to the Xenophobes and the Xenophones, which might make it narrower.

  20. Mostly MOE except that Turnbull is a bit more on the nose and that chipper post xmas feel among the reactionaries has gone down the toilet.

    65% of voters reckon that Joyce should resign.

    With around 4% of the vote nearly every single one of that 65% would be Liberal, Labor, PHON and Greens supporters. OF COURSE they would say he should resign. They would have said it BEFORE the extra marital kaka hit the fan.

    The next reset will have to happen after Turnbull comes back from has his sleaze-in with Trump. Cos most Australians despise Trump.

  21. sprocket_

    Perhaps going for a better sample to test how bad BeetRooterGate was going in the Bush, the banjo vote has been bloated?

    Sounds logical that this might be so. They’d have to been tempted to do as you say which means Labours position may be better than it shows in this poll.

  22. 53/47….completely consistent with the story, which is attention-getting and entertaining but not important in the big scheme of things

  23. Boerwar
    “I am stating that the net effect of Sanders was to help significantly get Trump into the White House.”
    A rationalisation.
    Sanders would have beaten Trump according to the polling. The Dems chose to ignore this in the interests of their donors and their internal factions.

  24. Shorten took over a shattered Party at a time when it was widely believed that Party would not return to government for at least a decade.
    He welded together a disparate, talented and disciplined team.
    He spent years working up detailed and costed policies.
    Many of these policies are good public policy but represent high political risk.
    He and his team have done an excellent job explaining and selling those policies.
    Of course Greens ratbags will natter on about ‘luck’.
    Bullshit. Di Natale in the same time has ensured that the Greens have flatlined, the Greens are filled with internecine rancour and the Greens policies a mish mash of populism and cloud cuckoo land stuff.
    In that time two Liberal Prime Ministers have cocked it up big time.
    Over nearly five years Shorten has had the best sort of luck: the one you make for yourself by doing the hard yakka year in, year out in the face of Murdoch, Big Oil, Big Coal, Big Gas, Big Banks, Big Multinationals, and the Greens ankle biters.
    Luck?
    Bullshit to that.

  25. How many elections are decided outside a 52-48 range – a few certainly – but gee, 53-47 is still a pretty depressing picture for the LNP? I don’t think the BJ stuff has really stuck yet. However, the bright start to 2018, touted by some in the media in Turnbull friendly corner, has certainly lost any kind of lustre.

  26. Trog

    I know that it is desperately important for the Greens to believe that Der Tag will eventually arrive and that, in the interim, the Greens activities will make no destructive difference.

    It is why the Greens feel utterly compelled to defend Sanders’ assistance to Trump.

    There is absolutely no doubt in any rational person’s mind that Sanders kept going long past the point at which he had decisively lost the primaries and that Clinton was going to be the Democrat candidate.

    By keeping going Sanders sucked oxygen and energy out of the Clinton campaign and helped Trump. It is why the Russians tried to bolster Sanders.

    The Russians are not as stupid as the Greens.

  27. B.S. Fairman @ #2410 Sunday, February 18th, 2018 – 8:58 pm

    The problem Howard had with the bullet proof vest was basically it was too big for him (after all he was Little Johnny). With a little bit more planning he could have worn a better fitting one. The AFP told him to wear it on the day as there was concern at the time of rouge elements.

    I have stood very close to JH when he was LOTO and we were in the same queue at an airport. He is not ‘little’. I am 1.8m tall and he was slightly shorter than me.

    I have no personal experience with them but suspect bullet proof vests do not come in many sizes but are adjustable to fit a range of sizes.

    Who where these ‘red’ elements to which you refer with your French affectation?

  28. Boewar

    Many people from golfer Gary Player to movie mogul Sam Goldwyn are reputed to have said something like “the harder I work the luckier I get.”

    Shorten has had some luck with two really bad Tory PMs in a row, but he has worked bloody hard as you say.

  29. MONOMANIA – mɒnə(ʊ)ˈmeɪnɪə
    a noun

    An exaggerated or obsessive enthusiasm for or preoccupation with one thing.

    synonyms: Boerwar, obsession, fixation, idée fixe, ruling passion, consuming passion, mania, compulsion, fetish, preoccupation, hobby horse;

  30. Andrew_Earlwood @ #2412 Sunday, February 18th, 2018 – 9:03 pm

    Bemused at 8:42pm – the ‘power’ characteristics of firearms are multifatorial. While you are correct about the intended range and accuracy of assault rifles that does not mean they are less ‘powerful’ than other firearms.

    My point was, and remains, that there are much more powerful firearms.
    There are also less powerful firearms.

  31. Good on Hillary Clinton for blaming the Comey letter (Nate Silver says data proves it did cost her the election), the media (were absolutely conned by Trump – remember his cries that it was rigged in Clinton’s favor? Projection much) https://theintercept.com/2016/09/16/reporters-complain-donald-trump-conning-media-even-help/ and of course we now know that the Russians sowed discord with Sanders voters to believe extreme fake news and disinformation about HRC. Have you bothered to look into Clinton’s policy platform? It was so superior to Trump’s that its almost funny. As well as far more detailed and costed than Bernie’s. Further, HRC has far more interest in helping the cause of African American and minority citizens than Bern. Hillary may not have been the most charismatic Democrat candidate, but she was 100 times more qualified and suitable candidate than Trump. And Hillary comfortably defeated Sanders in the primaries, even with him benefiting from massive help from team Russia.

  32. Bemused

    I think “little” might have been first used to describe Howard by Bob Hawke.

    Hawke was a veritable giant, all 173cm of him.

  33. 47:53 looks conservative on those numbers – I wonder what their next bumble will be? I’m betting leadership rumblings for both the libs and nats. If Barnaby goes then Turnbull will not be far behind, and I can’t see Barnaby surviving – the soap opera element of his life will keep this going. Come April he’s not going to get kudos for being a proud new dad – he’s going to look like a sad older bloke with appalling judgement who has hurt his four daughters and wife. The real issue should be his dodgy dealings in creating high paid jobs for his mistress, claiming away from home expenses so he could stay in canberra, and paying a grant to the mate who is letting him live rent-free. Then there’s just the incompetence and corruption of doing favours for donors. but the soap opera is what is going to keep the murdoch media’s attention – they know if barnaby goes, mal goes too and that’s their mission.

  34. Boerwar @ 10.20 pm.

    Agree fully. One doesn’t need to like Mr Shorten much to recognise what a good job he has done to pull his team together – assisted, a bit, by the change of rules pushed by Mr Rudd which has helped to deter leadership challenges like the Stephen Smith nonsense in WA; on which one might note that the current WA Premier was supposed, like Mr Shorten, to be a bit lacking in charisma.

    It also needs to be recognised that the way in which the ALP all but deprived the government of its majority in 2016 has been the major factor in the government’s weakness and Mr Turnbull’s lack of authority. Rather like the 1969 election, from which Mr Gorton never really recovered.

  35. And for those who watched the footrub on Malcolm by 60 Minutes, we weren’t the only ones who didn’t like it. George Christensen tweeted how unfair it was, an Lo and behold, Barnyard breaks his leave and retweets the complaint.

    I think a right of reply is warranted. Also, Murdoch tabloids are reporting tomorrow that a Nat party room challenge is being organised.

  36. Cameron:

    One of the major reasons DTT is so ridiculed here is because pre-election she asserted repeatedly that Trump represented the safer pair of hand re nuclear war and national security than Clinton .

    A statement so laughably ridiculous back then has been shown to be monumentally stupid now after what we’ve seen from President Trump.

  37. Darren Laver @ #2428 Sunday, February 18th, 2018 – 9:28 pm

    [Darren L:

    Nice to see you back again. Hope you’ve been well.]

    All good thanks, ‘fess! Don’t get to post very often these days, but the site is easier now that it has rid itself of Crikey,
    so I should make more of an effort.

    Other pests, like DTT and Bemused, remain! I guess like weeds each spring, doesn’t matter what you do, they’re back after the first rains!

    Hope you are well out West!

    Ahhh I see Darren Laver has lost none of his great personal charm…and malevolence.
    Didn’t miss you a bit sunshine!

  38. An observation on Newspoll. The relatively small shift in voting intention may well mean that people have made their minds up already about the government, and how they will vote at the next election. If so, if things are basically locked in at ~ 53-47, the ALP should be happy enough.

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