Essential Research was the only national poll of federal voting intention this week, and it’s made all but zero difference to the headline numbers on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. However, the YouGov Galaxy poll from Queensland has made a very substantial difference, reversing the 52-48 lead recorded to Labor there and knocking five off their seat projection. Conversely, the shallow pool of data from Western Australia since polling resumed for the year has pushed Labor’s lead there well above what seems plausible, added three to their seat tally with the latest update. I’m sure this will moderate over the coming weeks. The other changes this week are a gain for Labor in Victoria and a loss in South Australia. Exciting developments are looming in the world of BludgerTrack in a week or (more likely) two, so do stay tuned.
In other poll news, today’s Fairfax papers have a ReachTEL poll of New England, which finds 43% of its voters still intending to vote for Barnaby Joyce, compared with 65% at the December 2 by-election. However, Tony Windsor was included as a speculative response option, recording 26.1% support, with Labor on 12.1%. However, opinion is divided as to whether he should remain as Nationals leader and Deputy Prime Minister, favoured by 45.3%, or resign either from the front bench (26.7%) or from parliament altogether (20.5%).
Vic:
Yes our parliament is just one giant happy creche.
Fess
Indeed it is. 😀
The 13 indictments against Russian individuals and three Russian companies do not comment one way or another on “collusion”. However, there are a couple of significant take outs from the indictments document. Firstly, Mueller is saying that what the Russians did is a criminal conspiracy involving chargeable acts that he can prove in court. Examples of these criminal charges are: not reporting expenditures to election authorities, making illegal expenditures as foreigners trying to influence the election outcome and by obtaining visas under false pretences to visit the US. Secondly, the the document says that there are ‘other’ people involved in the conspiracy that aren’t named in the indictment: “..Defendants knowingly and intentionally conspired with each other (and with persons known and unknown to the Grand Jury) to defraud the United States by impairing, obstructing, and defeating the lawful functions of the government through fraud and deceit for the purpose of interfering with the political and electoral processes..”. Wow. The Grand Jury already knows other people involved in the conspiracy. One could surmise that these other people are Americans or people in the Trump orbit? We can see here Mueller’s game plan. He is saying the criminal conspiracy these Russians engaged in are chargeable acts that he can prove in court. This builds the foundation for his next move – proving that Trump people were conspiring with these Russians and as a consequence also subject to those criminal charges. Mueller is thus saying that this Trump/Russia conspiracy is a crime and he will prove it.
TPOF @ #2355 Sunday, February 18th, 2018 – 6:20 pm
TPOF
Have you had a brain transplant with Briefly or is there some infection over in WA.
Exactly when have I said anything nice about Hitler. Please give me chapter and verse. indeed Hitler represent s a very similar phenomenon to Trump ie a leader who is born of chaos and disillusionment of the people and i might add the weakness and infighting between the social democrats and the communists, such that they did not work effectively to defeat Hitler. .
meher baba @ #2172 Sunday, February 18th, 2018 – 3:30 pm
Assault rifles are not particularly powerful, nor particularly accurate.
They are designed for rapid fire and to be effective only to about 2-300 metres.
There are rifles which use a far more powerful cartridge and are accurate to 1Km or more.
The idea of assault rifles came about during WWII when it was found that most firing was at relatively short range and a high rate of fire was desirable. The Germans fielded some early assault rifles and others looked at developing them.
The Russian AK47 was developed in 1947 and was the first of the modern assault rifles and is still in production and use. It is highly effective and not prone to jamming in adverse conditions.
The American Colt Armalite was put into service by the Americans in Vietnam and was very prone to jamming and not at all popular with troops. It has been improved with the AR-16 and the AR-15 is the civilian version, the most notable difference being the AR-15 will not fire full automatic.
There is no conceivable civilian use for an assault rifle.
Victoria, as you and I both know you thought Trump wouldn’t get elected to start with and when he was he wouldn’t even make it to inauguration. Well he did and he’s still there.
He’s a complete tool granted and I hate the ridiculous fool. But he’s still there.
Cameron
Read this
http://thehill.com/opinion/judiciary/374312-mueller-indictments-still-miss-the-mark-on-trump-russia-collusion
The Trumpo-Putinists always evade the main point, which is they seek to pervert democracy. Democracy is the only tool available for working people to achieve social and economic justice. Inexorably, the Trumpo-Putinists are opposed to the rights and the claims of working people and they are restless in their quest to disrupt the democratic voices and programs of working people.
The T-Ps are kleptocratic, reactionary, authoritarian and corrupt.
They do not respect anything. And above all, they are militantly anti-democratic.
An indictment was served on an American the same day as the one against the Russians. I forget his name – Penudo or something like it. Indicted for identity theft from memory. This one seems to have sunk under the import of the indictment against the Russians.
The problem Howard had with the bullet proof vest was basically it was too big for him (after all he was Little Johnny). With a little bit more planning he could have worn a better fitting one. The AFP told him to wear it on the day as there was concern at the time of rouge elements.
Are Rouge Elements a feminist band?
Bemused at 8:42pm – the ‘power’ characteristics of firearms are multifatorial. While you are correct about the intended range and accuracy of assault rifles that does not mean they are less ‘powerful’ than other firearms.
** Meanwhile 60 minutes will be aired shortly. And Malcolm and Lucy are going to feature to discuss their wonderful marriage. **
Thanks. I will get out the betamax and tape it as I dont have a bucket on hand.
Has PvO tweeted an infantile “wow!” re: Newspoll yet? Or is it not Newspoll until Monday night?
Zoomster
Those elements most have gone rogue.
I was visiting a gallery at the University of WA the other day. I am told people spend years studying and honing their skills to be curators for art galleries and museums and there is much deliberation over the wording of those little white cards alongside each exhibit.
And there it was, a was a rogue rouge!
Dtt….the imputation you’ve made to the effect that TOPF has been “infected” is lamentable. It’s very far from exceptional conduct from you, but is the kind of thing fascists say about Jews, blacks, socialists, homosexuals, women and workers. You should withdraw the imputation. It is Trumpist. It is a disgrace.
I have long asked posters to give DTT a wide berth given she is as mad as a bucket of frogs.
Her descent into Russian-bot territory is yet another indicator of her sheer insanity.
Please ignore her and refuse to engage. She was banned and moved on from this blog previously, hopefully this happens again soon.
Until then, please starve her of attention.
Regards
Darren
George Christensen reported to the AFP. Apparently it was posted yesterday, after the Florida massacre.
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/photo-of-nationals-mp-george-christensen-with-a-gun-reported-to-police-20180218-p4z0r3.html
Seriously, how do these imbeciles get elected?
Seriously, how do these imbeciles get elected?
++++
By imbeciles perhaps?
Just finished watching part 2 of the Bob Hawke TV biography. It was pretty good: brought back many memories of a time when the big political debates were about important policy matters of lasting significance: Medicare, the Accord, deregulation, China policy, Asian immigration, the Franklin Dam, mining at Kakadu, mining in Antarctica, etc.
Rod Cameron summed it up beautifully when he said WTTE that Hawke had some personal convictions which went beyond the political issues of the present, and that was what was so sorely lacking among the political leaders of today.
If I had one disappointment, it was that – drawing on the combined “wisdom” of the hopelessly biased Richo and the press gallery maven Laura Tingle – the show pedaled the ridiculous line that Hawke should have gone, as he had once agreed (under immense pressure), soon after the 1990 election.
Hawke was the most successful leader in ALP history with an extraordinary ability to connect to the general population, and apparently it was a great idea for the party to dump him for an aloof and unpopular figure in Keating, largely on the grounds that Richo and the NSW Right had the numbers and therefore they got to call the shots.
I reckon that, if Hawke had remained leader, he would have continued to be unbeatable: winning not only the 1993 election but again in 1996 and 1999 (by which time I think he might have been prepared to step down). The next PM might have been Beazley, who, while he wasn’t successful as a campaigner from opposition (although he did get 51.5 per cent of the popular vote in 1998), would have gone well in the top job. Labor might have ended up governing for a generation, in the way that the Libs did from 1949 to 1972.
Instead, we got Keating, who started well, but he was a bit like the dog chasing the car and caught it, and then found out that he didn’t know what to do with it. Also, to be fair to him, he had a lot of problems with his marriage that dragged him down. Don’t get me wrong, I think he was a very good politician and, having met him on quite a few occasions, I can say he is a very nice and likeable guy in person (totally different to his parliamentary persona). But he lost the plot and then we have had the Libs in power for most of the last 22 years, save for the brief tragicomic interlude of R-G-R.
But Hawke was something special IMO: a political show pony who somehow also managed to be a man of substance. I appreciate that – as the TV show pointed out – his popularity had fallen to record lows by December 1991: but that was after 12 months of unrelenting undermining by Keating. And, like Gillard after him, Bob – and, in particular, some of his ministers (Howe, Kerin, etc.) – couldn’t continue to govern effectively while the whiteanting continued. But, if Hawke had been allowed to stay on until he chose to step down – which by rights should have been the case – I reckon the story could have been so, so different.
[George Christensen reported to the AFP. Apparently it was posted yesterday, after the Florida massacre.]
The LNP, particually in Queensland, parted company with sanity many years ago. We should cease to be surprised by this.
Confessions @ #2403 Sunday, February 18th, 2018 – 5:57 pm
I knew I’d find it. Not an indictment, but guilty plea by an American who helped the Russians by selling them stolen US identities.
https://www.justice.gov/file/1035547/download
Darren L:
Nice to see you back again. Hope you’ve been well.
briefly @ #2441 Sunday, February 18th, 2018 – 8:11 pm
Oh FFS
Poor petal.
TPOF accused me of liking Hitler just as you has accused me of enjoying mass slaughter.
Both are appalling cop outs and arguments of weak people who have not got any logical arguments against what i write and therefore in desperation start saying I love mass murder or Hitler.
It shocked me coming from TPOF because he is usually sane. Not true of you of course.
It is embarrassing childish stuff.
What sort of nonsense are you raving about now re saying that TPOF had caught something off you. is Fascist LOL, same as anti Jewish LOL andi socialist LOLOLOLOLOLOLOL.
Now when you rave like a maniac against Greens can I say the same.
One word
PATHETIC
Check out @PatsKarvelas’s Tweet: https://twitter.com/PatsKarvelas/status/965168570027032577?s=09
Re newspoll
Epsilons. Give us soma. That’s the angle.
Meher Baba
I only saw Hawke in public once, at the Bunbury races in the mid 70s, well before he moved to Parliament.
He must have been holidaying in WA or something as there was little in Bunbury to require his attention as ACTU boss.
I was having a drink at a bar when he walked past and I reckon a dozen people called out to him. “Gidday Bob” and Good on ya Bob”.
He flashed the trademark smile and gave us a wave … as you say he had the ability to connect with people.
How many ACTU leaders since would even be recognised in the crowd at a country race meeting, much less cheered.
[Darren L:
Nice to see you back again. Hope you’ve been well.]
All good thanks, ‘fess! Don’t get to post very often these days, but the site is easier now that it has rid itself of Crikey,
so I should make more of an effort.
Other pests, like DTT and Bemused, remain! I guess like weeds each spring, doesn’t matter what you do, they’re back after the first rains!
Hope you are well out West!
Darren Laver @ #2442 Sunday, February 18th, 2018 – 8:11 pm
Yawn, baby, yawn
Never been banned,
Self withdrew. May do so again but easier to block idjits.
Newspoll has received a letter from Malcolm Turnbull complaining that a poll this weekend would not be fair and balanced. The envelope may or may not have included a picture of GC holding a gun.
Darren L:
Yep things are good here. And this site is much better than at Crikey after they started tinkering with it and making all those crazy changes.
LNP focusing on the affair but not the rorting.
53-47 to Labor
#Newspoll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 47 (-1) ALP 53 (+1) #auspol
GhostWhoVotes@GhostWhoVotes
3m3 minutes ago
More
#Newspoll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 47 (-1) ALP 53 (+1) #auspol
Newspoll. Are we there yet?
#BREAKING: #Newspoll results are in. 65% of voters nationally believed Barnaby Joyce should resign as leader of the Nationals.
Am surprised there’s a Newspoll. Thought they’d wait until when parliament resumes.
We are. Pathetic.
The poll of 1632 voters across regional Australia and the capital cities shows that the Prime Minister and the Coalition have not escaped the electoral backlash.
Mr Turnbull’s personal approval ratings were slashed, dropping five points to 40 per cent leaving only a seven point margin between the Liberal leader and Labor leader Bill Shorten as preferred Prime Minister.
The Coalition primary vote has also fallen two points to 36 per cent, returning it to the lows of late last year, and falling one point behind Labor’s which remained unchanged.
All the gains that the Coalition made over summer, reflected in the first Newspoll of the year two weeks ago — when the Coalition narrowed the gap to trail Labor on a two party preferred vote of 52/48 — have been wiped out.
The two-party-preferred vote has returned the Coalition to the position it held in December trailing Labor 53/47.
The bad news for the Government, only tempered by the fact that it wasn’t worse, comes as the stalemate continued between the warring tribes of the Federal Nationals over what to do about Mr Joyce.
** LNP focusing on the affair but not the rorting. **
There is a lot of sense in that – less damaging and they will hope it will bring in some ALP MPs.
It will suit the MSM too – their thirst for titillation & simplification and it hits their mantra of ‘they r all the same’.
How can it be? No change despite the worst government in history?
Oh dear. Rex will be devastated.
The deep divisions within the Coalition over Mr Joyce’s future were reflected in the poll with 35 per cent of Coalition supporters believing he should remain as Nationals leader compared to 33 per cent opposed to him remaining.
In the overall breakdown of voters wanting Mr Joyce gone, 29 per cent believe the member for New England should step down as leader of the Nationals but still remain in Parliament on the backbench, while 21 per cent believe he should step down and not recontest the next election either.
However, 21 per cent of voters claim that Mr Joyce should immediately quit politics altogether.
In a result that may also come as a shock to Mr Joyce’s colleagues, men appeared to be less forgiving than women with 23 per cent believing that he should quit politics altogether compared to 20 per cent of female voters.
Regional voters were also more inclined to see Mr Joyce resign from Parliament immediately with 25 per cent in favour compared to 20 per cent of city voters.
She devoted an entire book to blaming the FBI, Russia, the media, and Bernie Sanders for her defeat. She has not come to terms with the deficient policy platform, limited communication skills, bad campaign management, and ethical lapses that led to her losing to an exceptionally weak and vulnerable GOP nominee.
GhostWhoVotes@GhostWhoVotes
4m4 minutes ago
#Newspoll Preferred PM: Turnbull 40 (-5) Shorten 33 (+2) #auspol
bemused
“The Colt AR-15 Armalite functions as a single shot semi-automatic rifle. The improved M-16 rifle that was developed from the AR-15 and adopted as the standard rifle for the US military has ‘fire select lever’ that allows it to function in the simple semi-automatic 1 shot mode or in a 3 shot ‘burst’ mode when the trigger is pulled.”
So it’s Newspoll: The Barnaby Joyce Edition.
Tick. Tick. Tick.
How long before Rex shows up to declare that under any other Labor leader the poll would have been worse for Turnbull and the Tories.
53-47 – just margin of error.