Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

No change on voting intention from Essential Research, as respondents reject the government’s stance on company tax cuts.

No change this week on Essential Research’s two-party preferred result, which shows Labor maintaining a two-party lead of 54-46, although as usual we’ll have to wait until later today for primary votes. The pollster’s monthly leadership ratings find Malcolm Turnbull with 39% approval (up one) and 42% disapproval (down three), while Bill Shorten is on 33% approval (also up one) and 46% disapproval (also down three), and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is 42-47, down from 42-25 last time. As related by The Guardian, the poll finds 72% supporting company tax cuts being made conditional on pay rises; more disagreeing than agreeing that company tax cuts would lead to higher wages without prompting; most disagreeing that penalty rate cuts would encourage companies to hire more workers. A series of questions on the proposed Adani coal mine found 48% saying it should be assessed on its economic and environmental merits, 22% saying coal mining in the Galilee basin should be banned, and 13% saying all mines should go ahead subject to environmental approvals.

UPDATE: Full report here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,719 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

Comments Page 2 of 55
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  1. Hmm. What a cleft stick to find yourself in. Leaving a sexual predator at home to be acting PM, while you go overseas and visit a sexual predator who is leader of the United States.

    Not. A. Good. Look. For a very ‘Modern’ PM.

  2. Can someone paste the tele story? Having great trouble getting behind the paywall these days. I think google has toughened up.

  3. William, a typo in your header:

    and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is 42-47, down from 42-25 last time.

    I think that should be 42-27, not 42-47.

  4. Hey Dan… I hope it’s all true. Really I do, but just for now I’d rather we were discussing verified events rather than feed a mob frenzy.

  6. swamprat says:
    Tuesday, February 13, 2018 at 6:34 am
    John Birmingham speaks for many …….

    https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/federal/the-hypocrisy-of-barnaby-joyce-is-stunning-20180212-p4z03k.html

    ____________________________

    I love this extract from your link:

    You’d think this would be enough to finish the bloke off, especially since while he was enjoying his rent free love shack he was lecturing the rest of the country about why they should be ashamed of themselves for wanting to live in Sydney when he was happy to live in Armidale, because it was cheaper.

    Much, much cheaper as it turns out. Who would have thought the solution to the housing affordability crisis was for millionaire property owners to let us live at their place for free. (Answer: socialists, communists, deluded idiots of that sort, I suppose).

  8. Its official. EMBATTLED status reached

    politics
    Barnaby Joyce denies claims of ‘pinching woman’s bottom’
    EMBATTLED deputy PM Barnaby Joyce has denied allegations he pinched a woman’s bum amid claims of inappropriate behaviour.

    http://www.news.com.au/national/politics/barnaby-joyce-denies-claims-of-pinching-womans-bottom/news-story/791540106b3595f7b8419fb03d511d93?from=rss-basic&utm_content=SocialFlow&utm_campaign=EditorialSF&utm_source=News.com.au&utm_medium=Twitter

  9. “Surely a solution has to be found so that Barnaby doesn’t get the acting pm gig Next Week?”

    Lets see, Turnbull is too cowardly to stand up to the Nats and demand Barnaby’s resignation, too weak to say “we’ll do the sensible thing and have the deputy Liberal leader rule the country instead of the leader of the 6th largest party on current polling percentage”, and can’t have Barnaby as PM in question time.

    There’s only 1 solution left.

    Cancel a week of parliament again.

  11. It’s a huge PvO style “WOW” for the five headline stories on Barnaby and his mistress in Murdoch’s Oz today.

    This one (jumped paywall) is likely to be a problem for Turnbull.

    Barnaby Joyce’s pregnant partner and former staffer Vikki Campion has been drawing a government pay packet over the past two months, with her employment formally expected to cease later this week.

    Ms Campion’s redundancy payout was approved last December following Malcolm Turnbull’s ministerial reshuffle and after she was moved between three Nationals offices in the space of six months.

    The Australian understands the 32-year-old took stress leave last October, about two months after taking a senior adviser’s role in the office of then Nationals chief whip Damian Drum, which paid over $100,000. She remained on stress leave until her employment was terminated.

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/vikki-campions-pay-still-on-public-purse/news-story/7a12b4bc3e7ab3ec062d8acc3adbe0c9

  12. Finally the Guardian casts Katherine Murphy’s feelings aside and starts to get to the meat of the story.

    Is it appropriate for Barnaby Joyce to accept free rent from a prominent businessman in his electorate – particularly one who’s been at the centre of local political intrigue?

    That question is ricocheting around Armidale following revelations that Greg Maguire, the millionaire businessman who owns the Powerhouse Hotel in Armidale and numerous businesses in Tamworth, is providing the deputy prime minister and his new partner and former media adviser, Vikki Campion, with a free townhouse.

    Maguire has found himself connected with not one but two local political controversies in the past 20 years.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/feb/13/barnaby-joyce-and-greg-maguire-a-relationship-that-comes-with-history?CMP=share_btn_tw

  13. kimbakit: Barnaby’s goose now appears to be cooked #auspol twitter.com/bevanshields/s…
    BevanShields: Mathias Cormann says the Barnaby Joyce scandal is ‘distracting’ and distances himself from the Deputy PM. When given the chance to say whether Joyce should stay, Cormann says that’s a matter for the Nats #auspol

  14. sarahinthesen8: Barnaby Joyce should resign. I don’t care if you’re a drunk bloke at a pub or the Deputy Prime Minister, there’s no excuse for harassing young women.

  16. OK Guytaur
    I am trying hard to stay out of Barnyard’s bedroom, but is that photo for real?

    If it is real it deserves an award.

    Sadly probably photo shopped.

  17. CUhlmann: A senior Cabinet source has told Nine News that Barnaby Joyce’s statement is expected to be an “explanation not a resignation” but added there was a growing mood among ministers that the DPM’s position was unsustainable. #auspol

  18. So Joyce is expected to not resign and defend himself against these allegations. I hope this means there is more allegations to publish.

  22. Morning all. Thanks BK, I will never unsee today’s Rowe.

    Barnaby should just go. It’s obvious the longer he stays the more of these stories will come out.

  23. Ides

    See Independent Australia. True Crime Weekly and @asherwolf’s twitter timeline.

    The stuff they have previously published is now being reported by mainstream media but being dripped out. So you can see what “revelations” are to be revealed.

  25. BevanShields: Barnaby Joyce says he “reserves his legal rights” in regards to today’s coverage. He apologises to his wife Natalie, children and new partner Vikki Campion
    #auspol

  27. BevanShields: BREAKING: Barnaby Joyce says Vikki Campion was never his partner when she was moved around jobs inside the government. He’s not resigning #auspol

  28. IoM:

    I saw something yesterday on Twitter that said the only reason Turnbull hadnt been rolled by Bishop is that Joyce would refuse to sign a coalition agreement with her.

    I’m going to hazard a guess that this won’t really be a hindrance to her much longer.

    If true, that would explain why Turnbull would have done something as monumentally dumb as directly associating himself with Barnarby’s misfortunes. Talk about making a enormous scandal ten times worse for yourself!

  30. guytaur:

    BevanShields: BREAKING: Barnaby Joyce says Vikki Campion was never his partner when she was moved around jobs inside the government. He’s not resigning #auspol

    That sound you can hear is hysterical laughter coming from Bill Shorten’s office.

  32. Oh dear. Who is advising BJoyce? His best course of action is to resign as DPM. Even politically uninterested people in my sphere, have very strong opinions about this latest saga. None of it favourable for BJoyce or the govt.

    Also, he should do well to see what occurred here in Melbourne with the now resigned mayor Robert Doyle.

    Many of his supporters in the public eye were speaking on his behalf etc., and basically suggesting that the allegations being investigated may not have been above board etc. And poor little Doyle was a victim of a smear campaign.
    Now more and more revelations are coming out about Doyle’s conduct over the years, and all those supporters have now gone silent.

  33. BevanShields: BREAKING: Barnaby Joyce says Vikki Campion was never his partner when she was moved around jobs inside the government. He’s not resigning #auspol
    ____
    Well what WAS she then?

  34. My feeling that Turnbull was going to be caught up in a “gate” right about now was super strong. But I had absolutely no inkling that it would all be about the beetrooter!! I did not see that one coming. Lol!!!!

  35. ‘Ms Campion’s redundancy payout was approved last December following Malcolm Turnbull’s ministerial reshuffle and after she was moved between three Nationals offices in the space of six months.

    The Australian understands the 32-year-old took stress leave last October, about two months after taking a senior adviser’s role in the office of then Nationals chief whip Damian Drum, which paid over $100,000. She remained on stress leave until her employment was terminated.’

    If the Nats aren’t employing their full complement of staff, how could she become redundant? How can a position which is worth $190k one day be deemed to be unnecessary the next?

  36. I’m sure that the Beetroot genuinely can’t remember such minor things as bum pinches, since it appears he was sozzled at the time.

    In order to respond to the advances of an alcoholic, sweaty, flabby, middle aged lecher, any woman would need to be just a little bit sozzled too.

    When all the high salaries and payouts come to an end, what will Ms Campion be left with?

  37. Turnbull has to go and see Trump, I don’t think you could explain to the US president what the problem was, it would be beyond him.

    If Turnbull wasn’t away next week they would be hoping for a distraction (like say S44), for it to blow over but that is not an option.

  38. Victoria

    True. Bolt came closest when he said Windsor or Joyce would be destroyed from those tweets.

    Even he did not see the implosion of the Nationals coming out of this.

  39. His best course of action is to resign as DPM.

    He could invite an inquiry into Campion’s employment and stand down from the Nats leadership and ministry while it happened. If it all turns up roses then he’s good. If not then resign.

  40. BK

    Oh deary me. BJoyce is punking the whole bloody country. Does he have no shame at all.

    I still remember the marathon press conference where the media hounded Julia Gillard about her relationship with someone whilst she was a young lawyer, Seriously I still can’t believe that shit was allowed to occur

    Yet we have the likes of BJoyce giving us this unadultered crap.

  43. Barnaby has a few expenses looming (maintenance of children, divorced settlement etc) so he naturally doesn’t want to step off the gravy train.

    He could sell all his ‘worthless’ land.

  44. The more I think about it, the more I just cannot believe that they’re leaving Joyce to be Acting PM for a week in the midst of all this. Labor must be salivating at the prospect.

    If there was absolutely no way of convincing Joyce to resign of the Nats to roll him, a better idea might have been to send Bishop (or whoever the relevant Minister is) to act in Turnbull’s stead, so that he can stay in the country until the Nats get their act together.

  46. Workplace Safety issue.
    MrDenmore: Explosion just went off in building. Gas cylinder?. Fire Brigade attending. Circular Quay pic.twitter.com/z1sNgNiJSB

  47. VE, Tuesday, February 13, 2018 at 8.24am,
    “Cancel a week of parliament again ”
    I think it is actually a good idea. People will not blame the government for that. They will be relieved.

  49. No surprises here but I bet Trump fans will STILL see him as looking after the ‘little guy’.

    President Trump proposed a budget Monday that hits the poorest Americans the hardest, slashing billions of dollars in food stamps, health insurance and federal housing subsidies while pushing legislation to institute broad work requirements for families receiving housing vouchers, expanding on moves by some states to require recipients of Medicaid and food stamps to work.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/02/12/trumps-budget-hits-poor-americans-the-hardest/?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_budgetanalysis-315pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.5f9e61b0d798

  50. jpbowers: Former PM Kevin Rudd and Therese Rein hug Elaine Randall from Grafton in the great hall of Parliament House on the 10th anniversary of the apology to the stolen generations, Elaine was a Cootamundra girl @AmyRemeikis @GuardianAus @murpharoo #politicslive pic.twitter.com/KPJjxm26mw

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