YouGov Galaxy: 52-48 to federal Coalition in Queensland

Another better poll result for the government, this time from Queensland, which finds the swing to Labor at an almost-manageable 2%.

Today’s Courier-Mail has a YouGov Galaxy poll of federal voting intention in Queensland which gives the Coalition one of its best poll results in some time, crediting them with a 52-48 lead. This represents a two-party swing to Labor of only 2.1% since the 2016 election, although it’s only one point better than in the previous Queensland poll by Galaxy in August last year. The poll also provides further evidence that One Nation has gone off the boil, their primary vote of 9% being three points down on August. The Coalition is up four to 41% (compared with 43.2% at the election), Labor is steady on 32% (30.9% at the election), and the Greens are up three to 10% (8.8% at the election).

A perfectly even split of opinion is recorded on the Adani coal mine, with support and opposition both at 41%. This breaks down to 43-38 against in south-east Queensland, and 45-37 in favour in the rest of the state. The poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 860.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,108 comments on “YouGov Galaxy: 52-48 to federal Coalition in Queensland”

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  1. Voice Endeavour @ #1799 Monday, February 12th, 2018 – 6:01 pm

    @P1

    You don’t think that has more to do with Australia being the driest and the flattest continent?

    No. Many countries (e.g. much of Africa or the middle east) face the same issues. Anyway, unless you haven’t noticed, Australia is mostly unserviced. The electricity grid in Australia is not even particularly large by world standards. However, it is “gold-plated”. That probably has something to do with it.

    Hydro has been viable for a lot longer than wind and solar. Therefore, countries with good hydro potential tend to have much higher renewables % than countries with good wind or solar.

    Hydro accounts for a lot in the top dozen or two countries. But most of Australia has very good hydro potential as well, so that can’t really be the reason, can it?

  2. Bemused

    I am glad that you at least have taken the trouble to read just a little about the NK situation. although oddly enough I found the article a tad paranoid and hysterical.

    Some things are right ie the chance of a nuclear and/or large conventional war are in the right ball park although perhaps a tad too high.

    My own analysis of the situation just now is that NK is bending over backwards NOT to target SK, so in a sense that article was deliberately designed to scare SK. First I do not think NK would be keen to lob a nuke on SK, because of blow back and contamination.

    Their targets I assume would be the US military installations, but with conventional weapons. Their nukes I think would be targeted at US/ Japanese bases, at their aircraft carriers and possibly mainland USA if they could reach it.

    I think it a reasonable assumption that Kim is in fact not insane and will not use nuclear weapons unless he is about to be attacked anyway. He would know that if he used a nuke then the US would blast his country to smithereens, including massive nuclear blasts. However if NK is attacked by USA then he will lob his nukes wherever they can reach, but damaging the USA as much as he can.

    Sort of like giving them a bloody nose,even though he knows that his country is cactus.

    However the real danger in such a conflict is this:
    1. If the US attacks with conventional not nuclear weapons would Kim launch his nukes
    2. If the US land troops/military in NK will Russia and China stand by idly.

    My guess on 1 is probably no

    My guess on 2 is definitely NO.

    By the by Bemused, while I understand that attacking me makes you think you have some “street cred” in the eyes of the resident idjits, it actually does not.

    Perhaps a more reasoned and FAIR response would have been

    “Well I rather thought DTT was being overly worried or even paranoid, but here is a well reasoned article that gives her some level of support. I will need to follow this more closely”

    You do yourself no credit by being rude.

  3. I’ll bet Crabby Annabelle is fuming. I expect after years of being “ABC’s chief online political writer” she thought she deserved the gig.

    The ABC is attempting to import a bit of gravitas in a desperate attempt to restore 7.30’s rapidly diminishing credibility.

    In that situation Ms Annabelle is probably the last person that you’d turn to.

    No doubt she’ll have another series of her excellent cooking show to keep her happy. I do think that humanising politicians is such a worthwhile endeavour.
    Has Barnaby already been on?

  4. Ms Crabbe is, IMO, quite an astute judge of political character and is a dab hand at the policy stuff.
    Her career problem is that she has tended to the infotainment end of the political journo spectrum.

  5. daretotread @ #1803 Monday, February 12th, 2018 – 6:18 pm

    Bemused

    I am glad that you at least have taken the trouble to read just a little about the NK situation. although oddly enough I found the article a tad paranoid and hysterical.

    Some things are right ie the chance of a nuclear and/or large conventional war are in the right ball park although perhaps a tad too high.

    My own analysis of the situation just now is that NK is bending over backwards NOT to target SK, so in a sense that article was deliberately designed to scare SK. First I do not think NK would be keen to lob a nuke on SK, because of blow back and contamination.

    Their targets I assume would be the US military installations, but with conventional weapons. Their nukes I think would be targeted at US/ Japanese bases, at their aircraft carriers and possibly mainland USA if they could reach it.

    I think it a reasonable assumption that Kim is in fact not insane and will not use nuclear weapons unless he is about to be attacked anyway. He would know that if he used a nuke then the US would blast his country to smithereens, including massive nuclear blasts. However if NK is attacked by USA then he will lob his nukes wherever they can reach, but damaging the USA as much as he can.

    Sort of like giving them a bloody nose,even though he knows that his country is cactus.

    However the real danger in such a conflict is this:
    1. If the US attacks with conventional not nuclear weapons would Kim launch his nukes
    2. If the US land troops/military in NK will Russia and China stand by idly.

    My guess on 1 is probably no

    My guess on 2 is definitely NO.

    By the by Bemused, while I understand that attacking me makes you think you have some “street cred” in the eyes of the resident idjits, it actually does not.

    Perhaps a more reasoned and FAIR response would have been

    “Well I rather thought DTT was being overly worried or even paranoid, but here is a well reasoned article that gives her some level of support. I will need to follow this more closely”

    You do yourself no credit by being rude.

    Hmmmm I suspect DTT has had her account hacked.
    This post is written in English and lacks the characteristic hysteria and hyperbole.

    I do read such articles on a regular basis and form my own opinions based on what I draw from many sources. I most certainly do not rely on what I read on PB, particularly from certain rather breathless and over-excited posters.

    The most interesting things about Korea at present is how North and South are side-lining the US. Pence must be almost incandescent with rage.

  6. Ctar1 and P1, in the ATO letter they claimed I transferred money into the super. I can’t recall doing it, nor do I know where I would transfer the money from. So it didn’t happen.

    Can’t wait to see what the trustee investigation comes back with.

  7. Joyce is a good Catholic and Catholics don’t wear condoms!
    ____
    Yes, they sow their wild oats all week and pray for a crop failure on a Sunday.

  8. adrian

    I notice that Ellen Fanning seems to jump too quickly to “No leadership Shorten” or “Bad Labor” on The Drum. She may be trying for ‘balance’, but inserts odd anti-Labor comments. I thought she was more objective, but am beginning to wonder. We already have John Barron on The Drum for that sort of nonsense.

  9. That sound you hear in Canberra these is the loud and deep scraping of the barrel’s bottom. It’s grubby, personal and a game without ethics. Barnaby cheated. He wronged his family. He’s not alone. But he won’t be left alone. It’s click bait, partisan and says something about politics these days.

  10. lizzie @ #1207 Monday, February 12th, 2018 – 6:33 pm

    adrian

    I notice that Ellen Fanning seems to jump too quickly to “No leadership Shorten” or “Bad Labor” on The Drum. She may be trying for ‘balance’, but inserts odd anti-Labor comments. I thought she was more objective, but am beginning to wonder. We already have John Barron on The Drum for that sort of nonsense.

    She’s very objective and accurate from what I’ve seen.

  11. Al Pal @ #1209 Monday, February 12th, 2018 – 6:38 pm

    That sound you hear in Canberra these is the loud and deep scraping of the barrel’s bottom. It’s grubby, personal and a game without ethics. Barnaby cheated. He wronged his family. He’s not alone. But he won’t be left alone. It’s click bait, partisan and says something about politics these days.

    Barnaby dug his hole all by himself.

  12. ” Root Rat Joyce will be Acting Prime Minister next week.

    That will make Campion the Acting First Lady of Straya.”

    Will she be seen with him publicly at State Dinners etc like Lucy?

  13. bemused says:
    Monday, February 12, 2018 at 3:03 pm
    A sober assessment of what a war between North Korea and the US would be like. Without all the hyperbole and hysteria of DTT.

    The stand-off on the peninsula has endured since 1953. The incredibly intense commitment of firepower on both sides, together with the interested scrutiny from China and Russia, really make it very much more likely that the stand-off will continue indefinitely than that it will break down into actual conflict.

    What we see is permanent conflict – unbroken hostility – in the absence of casualties. This is the status quo. Nothing that has happened recently is likely to upset that status quo. If anything, it has been reinforced by technical and political developments. Of course, while the conflict is endless and this seems to suit everyone involved, both NK and SK also have very strong interests in continuing to prevent casualties. So some kind of non-military rapprochement between the two Koreas will be permitted to evolve, as long as it does not impinge on the strategic interests of any of the greater powers that benefit from these hostilities.

    We have war without deaths and – other than the miseries of the population in the North – we have neither winners nor losers. This is the paradox of the Korean Peninsula.

  14. Rex Douglas says:
    Monday, February 12, 2018 at 6:41 pm
    Al Pal @ #1209 Monday, February 12th, 2018 – 6:38 pm

    That sound you hear in Canberra these is the loud and deep scraping of the barrel’s bottom. It’s grubby, personal and a game without ethics. Barnaby cheated. He wronged his family. He’s not alone. But he won’t be left alone. It’s click bait, partisan and says something about politics these days.

    Barnaby dug his hole all by himself.

    Not so much. Joyce’s NP colleagues have been digging too…..digging beneath Joyce’s foundations.

  15. Rex Douglas says:
    Monday, February 12, 2018 at 6:40 pm

    adrian

    I notice that Ellen Fanning seems to jump too quickly to “No leadership Shorten” or “Bad Labor” on The Drum. ….

    She’s very objective and accurate from what I’ve seen.

    Shorten doesn’t do what Fanning wants, or what you and the IPA want. That seems to me to be firm leadership. He is far too deft to be drawn into the leadership games of the LNP.

  16. briefly @ #1217 Monday, February 12th, 2018 – 6:52 pm

    Rex Douglas says:
    Monday, February 12, 2018 at 6:40 pm

    adrian

    I notice that Ellen Fanning seems to jump too quickly to “No leadership Shorten” or “Bad Labor” on The Drum. ….

    She’s very objective and accurate from what I’ve seen.

    Shorten doesn’t do what Fanning wants, or what you and the IPA want. That seems to me to be firm leadership. He is far too deft to be drawn into the leadership games of the LNP.

    It must be exhausting being a Labor partisan, what with all the rationalisation that must be done. 😆

  17. It's four years today since Luke was taken from me. I think of him every day and I'm so glad he hasn't been forgotten by all of you.— Rosie Batty (@RosieBatty1) February 12, 2018

    Give your kids a hug tonight.

  18. “Sprocket: Now if only the man would wear a condom.”

    Earlier today I mentioned a possible reason why Barnaby didn’t have a partner according to Turnbull when his lady friend received a specially created high salary position with Canavan.

    She had obviously experienced an immaculate conception!

  19. Regarding the Age/SMH expose on catholic church finances today (some good journalism) Crikey highlighted this:

    “while the Melbourne archdiocese provided a report valuing its properties at just $109 million when questioned again by the royal commission in 2014.”

    So isn’t presenting false evidence to an RC an offence? Will anyone be charged?

  20. Socrates @ #1226 Monday, February 12th, 2018 – 7:10 pm

    Regarding the Age/SMH expose on catholic church finances today (some good journalism) Crikey highlighted this:

    “while the Melbourne archdiocese provided a report valuing its properties at just $109 million when questioned again by the royal commission in 2014.”

    So isn’t presenting false evidence to an RC an offence? Will anyone be charged?

    Special exceptions for the cult of fancy dress.

    They’re allowed to discriminate based on sexual orientation and they’re seemingly allowed to lie at RC’s.

  21. Just watched segment on Current Affair re BJoyce. Miranda Devine, Chris Ullhmann and Peter Van Onselen were interviewed for comment. None of it favourable to BJoyce

  22. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/feb/12/liberals-retreat-from-barnaby-barney-as-deputy-pms-future-hinges-on-technicality

    …While the prime minister had been polite enough to generalise, Morrison thought he’d get specific. That responsibility, said the treasurer, sat with “the leader of the National party”.

    It was Joyce, in other words. Don’t look at us, chaps.

    Morrison may as well have turned in Joyce’s direction and said “why don’t you ask that bozo?”, or nailed a flashing red arrow over the deputy prime minister’s head – but Labor, already tiptoeing around the glass house – declined to take the hint.

    In case it wasn’t already obvious, Monday demonstrated the Liberals have little appetite to go to the wall for Joyce…

    😆

  23. Rex Douglas says:
    Monday, February 12, 2018 at 6:55 pm

    Shorten doesn’t do what Fanning wants, or what you and the IPA want. That seems to me to be firm leadership. He is far too deft to be drawn into the leadership games of the LNP.

    It must be exhausting being a Labor partisan

    nah…effortless, really. I am observant, is all….

  24. This has been mentioned previously on PB, but has anyone in the CPG bothered to learn Centrelink’s definition of “partner” and compared it with Turnbull’s definition?

  25. Al Pal @6:38 “That sound you hear in Canberra these is the loud and deep scraping of the barrel’s bottom. It’s grubby, personal and a game without ethics.”

    Al, pal, you raise a serious (and interesting) dilemma. Australian politics is a sewer, and has been since at least the ascension of Abbott, and to a lesser extent, a lot longer.

    So we accept that politics is a tough game, so how should Labor (not completely innocent) respond. When they go low, we go high? When they go low, as one Bludger suggested a few months ago, kick them hard where it’s most painful. There are moral considerations, plus Labor’s friends don’t control most of the money and most of the mainstream media so it might not work.

    In any case, there are standards. Many One Nation voters are ex-Labor voters who want Labor policies plus White Australia. But dogwhistling, let alone the almost overt racism sometimes seen on the Dark Side, is not acceptable in any circumstances.

    Should Labor lie and cheat? Well, no, within reason. Again, Labor’s friends don’t control most of the media and most of the ‘natural’ sources of power and authority. But we can leave the Opposition and their friends to pick out any gaps in our story. Only the impotent are pure.

    Which brings us to Beetrootgate. Joyce is a fool, a buffoon, a no-talent incompetent, a liar, a hypocrite and I suspect worse. He’s fair game, so is his paramour. Labor can’t hurt his family any more than he already has, although they should be left out of it.

    Go for him – not for the salacious buts – others can and are looking after that – but all the other stuff.

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