Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

Newspoll resumes with the Coalition’s best result in ten months.

As related by The Australian, the first Newspoll of the year has Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48, which is down from 53-47 at the previous poll in mid-November, and the narrowest it’s been since April last year. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up two to 38%, Labor is steady on 37% and the Greens are steady on 10%. One Nation is on 5%, which is down two on a result that was already their weakest showing since Newspoll started publishing results for them last February. Personal ratings bring good news for Malcolm Turnbull, who is up five on approval to 37%, and has widened his lead as preferred prime minister from 41-34 to 45-31. Bill Shorten is up two on approval to 34%, but it seems we will have to wait for the disapproval ratings (UPDATE: Good news for both on the latter score, with Turnbull down seven to 50%, and Shorten down four to 52%).

UPDATE: Newspoll also has preferred Labor leader numbers which have little separating Bill Shorten, Tanya Plibersek and Anthony Albanese, who are on 22%, 25% and 24% respectively.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,815 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. GG

    No it was a deliberate act of bastardry by the ABC.

    They had all that stuff and they chose to chase after old news. I hope those responsible get caned.

  2. #WeatheronPB:

    Rossmcg – it’s swings and roundabouts. Sydney’s West away from the seabreezes is experiencing its second Summer of record heat. Penrith and Richmond (about 50km West of Sydney) finished December and January about 4C above average, with about 10 40C+ days. It’s now cooler (especially at night) but heating up again. Rainfall is tracking at about 40% of average.

  3. Greensborough Growler

    Even though the Bustard so unjustly threw Garrett under a bus over the issue I hope it will be a very large heated pool.

  4. Question

    Yes I can get in via my browser through that absurd travesty of an email system namely Webmail. Totally useless. Slow, cumbersome, cannot open stuff, cannot delete stuff, cannot organise stuff with ease, cannot group by sender.

    It is circa 1975 in its functionality.

  5. Rudd doesn’t really strike me as the swimming pool type.

    Does anybody know where he calls home these days?

    and from another report: Earlier in the week Rudd also received an apology from Chris Smith and Janet Albrechtsen on 2GB and 4BC through the Macquarie Radio Network. Smith said the story “was not the smoking gun many people thought it was”.

  6. Poroti
    I am not sure that Garrett did not in part deserve to get a right proper bollicking.

    Did it not emerge that he had in his ofice a warning from Minter Elklison re risk.

    Garrett is the lawyer.

    If I had a staff lawyer who failed to read a briefing where the term RISK was used then yp they would get a roasting.

    I feel sorry for Garrett because he was probably elevated too quickly but still it was a serious error that deserved solid reproof.

  7. The idea everyone knew about Barnaby is BS. Here on politically tragic PB there were a few hints, but I thought it was just rumours of an affair. Nothing about splitting up or a bundle of joy.

    ABC News had a brief vox-pop on Barnaby in New England. All of them said it would have given them pause.

    If it had come out sooner perhaps Windsor would have run, and who knows?

  8. Greensborough Growler

    Of course he bloody is and the ABC absolutely did not . I was having to do a lot of OH&S stuff at the time and reading how the people died and seeing Labor blamed for what was, in some cases outrageous, breaches of long standing laws by both employers and employees made my blood boil. Still does.

  9. The rocket launch went well but –

    CNN reporting Tesla 675m qrt loss – Yep , Quarterly loss

    1,500 Tesla 3’s delivered in the quarter. Order list 500,000 cars.

  10. daretotread @ #2706 Thursday, February 8th, 2018 – 9:00 pm

    Poroti
    I am not sure that Garrett did not in part deserve to get a right proper bollicking.

    Did it not emerge that he had in his ofice a warning from Minter Elklison re risk.

    Garrett is the lawyer.

    If I had a staff lawyer who failed to read a briefing where the term RISK was used then yp they would get a roasting.

    I feel sorry for Garrett because he was probably elevated too quickly but still it was a serious error that deserved solid reproof.

    Rubbish. Rudd just panicked.

    There were risks mentioned, but mainly financial and not OH&S.

    The mitigation for any OH&S risk is that it is a State responsibility to ensure employers comply with relevant standards.

    There was concern about a large number of new entrants into the field, but installing insulation is not rocket science and home handymen routinely do it with zero training. IIRC, short courses were arranged.

    The causes of death were one case of heat stroke, 2 electrocutions due to use of metal staples plus electrical wiring faults, and one case of an installer disobeying instructions to use the plastic staples provided and instead providing his own metal staples. He was electrocuted like the other 2.

    To lay any blame at the feet of a funding organisation would be like blaming housing lenders for any accidents on building sites. Simply ludicrous.

  11. daretotread

    re the risk. The laws breached were long standing and industry norms. How were the government to stop people like one eejit going out and replace his company supplied plastic staple gun with a metal one because it was faster ?

  12. Dtt,
    Well that’s good, it means the account has not been compromised. As others suggested, try removing and setting up the offending account again in Outlook.

    The most likely problem is with the Telstra email account. Google and MS accounts are better, and have good web interfaces, and 2 step security etc, and they make it seamless to switch ISP (and they don’t try to sabotage each other – that is BS).

  13. Question @ #2709 Thursday, February 8th, 2018 – 9:04 pm

    The idea everyone knew about Barnaby is BS. Here on politically tragic PB there were a few hints, but I thought it was just rumours of an affair. Nothing about splitting up or a bundle of joy.

    ABC News had a brief vox-pop on Barnaby in New England. All of them said it would have given them pause.

    If it had come out sooner perhaps Windsor would have run, and who knows?

    Windsor knew. Just about everybody in NE knew. This is how the Rural Honoured Society operate – particularly when the whole Owner’s Party depends on it. Windsor was shown the instruments and told what would happen if he stood. Wake in Fright wasn’t that fictional.

  14. Rhwombat,
    I’m sure Windsor knew, but he needed someone else to break the story or he would just look dirty. I would like to think rural politics is not like the Mafia 🙂

  15. There is a large number of medical and surgical treatments that have been scientifically discredited yet continue to be widely practised by doctors. There is a long lag time between making scientific findings and actually getting doctors to base their clinical practice on them.

  16. I was sitting on the beach on Dirk Hartog Island (where there is a mobile signal believe it or not) in late October when I read that an internet site had reported that Joyce had been kicked out of home.

    Over the next few days I waited for the denials, and/or the writs. They never came.

    I find the idea that a good number of people in the electorate of New England didn’t know and voted in ignorance fanciful.

  17. The idea that common knowledge was also common in hindsight is fanciful. It’s like how market crashes make total sense… after the event.

  18. GG, because at the time it wasn’t a universally accepted fact, it was reported as scuttlebutt by the same reporter who just told us it was true.

  19. I’d like to know if the Shooters might not have made a different decision and stood if the media hadn’t observed omerta on the beetrooter. They were always the ones I thought would give him a fright if anyone could. Having the media filling the news with footage of his daughters on the campaign trail wouldn’t have done a good Shooters candidate much harm I reckon.

  20. Question says:
    Thursday, February 8, 2018 at 9:26 pm
    And if everyone in NE knew, how come on PB it was just a vague rumour of no real consequence?

    Nobody much cares about NE on PB. No point in talking about it, no notice is given to anything out of the deep north on PB, and local knowledge is discounted. Not a problem.

    And don’t forget there are libel laws in Oz. Getting specific on a public blog is not a good idea.

    I remember saying that Joyce was certain to win, in like Flynn, and then was castigated after the event because I hadn’t specifically stated ‘with an increased majority’. I thought that was a given.

    And not a lot of point in making a big deal of Joyce’s situation here, everybody knew about it, and it did not make one whit of difference. Once a National voter here, always a National voter.

    I’ve told youse all before, sheep vote up this way.

  21. I was here GG, and whatever you posted may have appealed to my inner partisan, but it gave no sense of certainty. The vast majority of NE did not know, and very few would have been certain.

  22. Poroti and Bemused

    I actually agree that Rudd panicked and dumped too much on Garrett BUT I also think Garret (or his staff)n were pretty bloody careless.

    When you get a report in from a consultant SOMONE in the office should have precised it and told Garrett of the key issues.

    Obviously as with any program there are risks, I suspect the main ones were shonky operators and scammers. Garrett should have covered his backside.

    But yes Rudd was over the top, but Garrett was also a bit too precious by half.

  23. Question says:
    Thursday, February 8, 2018 at 9:46 pm
    I was here GG, and whatever you posted may have appealed to my inner partisan, but it gave no sense of certainty. The vast majority of NE did not know, an very few would have been certain.
    ______________________

    Bullshit.

    Once again, local knowledge is discounted. Doesn’t matter, have it your own way.

  24. Nicholas and wombat
    You can imagine how it would take dropping treatments to happen, for eg, stents for stable angina.
    First of all, it’s just one study with a short followup time and not large numbers so a study with more power might have different findings.
    I’m sure there are flaws in the study as none are perfect (I havent read it myself, just the abstract). And as a Bayesian, I strongly believe that extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.
    Cardiologists would go out of work in droves, as would the stent makers (some of those stents go for $25K)
    Patients would go nuts, sue you etc etc if you refused stenting when most of your colleagues still did it.

  25. dtt

    Garrett responded, often within 24 hours, to every problem as it was pointed out to his office.

    There was some scandalous misreporting – for example, one organisation went to the media with a letter they’d sent to Garrett’s office, implying that he had ignored their concerns, when in fact he had acted on them within days of receiving the letter. Both the original letter and the reply from Garrett, outlining the actions he had taken, were on the organisation’s website, but of course the media didn’t bother to check.

  26. daretotread @ #2734 Thursday, February 8th, 2018 – 9:49 pm

    Poroti and Bemused

    I actually agree that Rudd panicked and dumped too much on Garrett BUT I also think Garret (or his staff)n were pretty bloody careless.

    When you get a report in from a consultant SOMONE in the office should have precised it and told Garrett of the key issues.

    Obviously as with any program there are risks, I suspect the main ones were shonky operators and scammers. Garrett should have covered his backside.

    But yes Rudd was over the top, but Garrett was also a bit too precious by half.

    Rudd tried to do a smart-arse Peter Beattie stunt and it didn’t work. In the process he shafted Garrett.

    As far as I could see all the identified risks were being controlled / managed. E.g. insisting householders had multiple quotes and putting it on them and normal consumer protection to minimise rorting.

    The crazed Abbott led opposition was just hurling around baseless accusations and Rudd, and others, panicked rather than stand their ground. It only made matters worse and lent credence to some of the wild claims.

  27. Diogenes @ #2736 Thursday, February 8th, 2018 – 9:52 pm

    Nicholas and wombat
    You can imagine how it would take dropping treatments to happen, for eg, stents for stable angina.
    First of all, it’s just one study with a short followup time and not large numbers so a study with more power might have different findings.
    I’m sure there are flaws in the study as none are perfect (I havent read it myself, just the abstract). And as a Bayesian, I strongly believe that extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.
    Cardiologists would go out of work in droves, as would the stent makers (some of those stents go for $25K)
    Patients would go nuts, sue you etc etc if you refused stenting when most of your colleagues still did it.

    So I am just imagining the benefits I received from a stent?
    Rubbish.

  28. He’s probably the Warney of politics!

    He probably feels that he’s a big change of getting a Michelle Pfiefer seeing as Joyce has shown how little talent you need to bowl a maiden over.

  29. Whether NE voters knew about Barnaby’s affair or not is irrelevant. He won the by-election by a substantial margin, even increasing his margin from the 2016 general election IIRC.

  30. bemused

    Rudd tried to do a smart-arse Peter Beattie stunt and it didn’t work.

    Damned right there. I remember watching Rudd and immediately thinking of Beattie’s “I’ve been a bad widdle boy, forgive me” apologies. Rudd discovered out that what may work north of the Tweed for Beattie just doesn’t cut it nationally.

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