Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

Newspoll resumes with the Coalition’s best result in ten months.

As related by The Australian, the first Newspoll of the year has Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48, which is down from 53-47 at the previous poll in mid-November, and the narrowest it’s been since April last year. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up two to 38%, Labor is steady on 37% and the Greens are steady on 10%. One Nation is on 5%, which is down two on a result that was already their weakest showing since Newspoll started publishing results for them last February. Personal ratings bring good news for Malcolm Turnbull, who is up five on approval to 37%, and has widened his lead as preferred prime minister from 41-34 to 45-31. Bill Shorten is up two on approval to 34%, but it seems we will have to wait for the disapproval ratings (UPDATE: Good news for both on the latter score, with Turnbull down seven to 50%, and Shorten down four to 52%).

UPDATE: Newspoll also has preferred Labor leader numbers which have little separating Bill Shorten, Tanya Plibersek and Anthony Albanese, who are on 22%, 25% and 24% respectively.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,815 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Re Sprocket_ @ 7:11PM.

    That apology is linked from near the top of the landing page of the ABC News site. The link is written in a plain, standard-sized font.

    Mr Rudd should insist that it be run as the lead item on ABC News (Radio and TV) for several days, as was the offending news item, and much more prominently displayed on the ABC Website.

  2. poroti @ #2647 Thursday, February 8th, 2018 – 7:29 pm

    Greensborough Growler

    Re Molan, he was not just some innocent conscript bystander in Fallujah but a director of it. Even Fox News started questioning how the phosphorous was used in Falluja re legality/morality. Illumination purposes my arske it was bucketed down. There were also widespread reports of pretty dodgy behavior by soldiers.

    Doesn’t matter!

    Soldiers serving abroad are there serving Australia

    An alternative view is that he was appointed to do a job by the Government and did it most effectively.

    if you have some real evidence of any extra criminality, then fill your boots.

  3. That drover’s dog would win in New England if he stood for the Nats. Even if he was a ugly bull who had jumped every fence in the electorate and sired half the pups there.

    I am sure many people there knew of Joyce’s personal situation and it mattered not one jot. They will now doubt vote him back at the next election and for every one after that for as long as he wants to hang about.

    I daresay if he thinks he is headed for a decent spell in opposition he will be off, probably to a better paid job with Gina Rhinehart.

  4. rossmcg

    That’s pure speculation. As dim witted as we’d like to make out the voters of New England are if an alternative turned up they could well dump Joyce. It would no doubt be another Nat so that would be fun!

  5. I was thinking of the Libs deciding to stand a candidate as a result of the Bandt outburst.

    Why? They don’t give a flying fuck what the Greens do or say unless it can be used to damage Labor.

    They know where the real game is.

    Everything they say about the Greens, like Credlin’s hyperbole is simply to damage Labor by association.

    There is no way on God’s Green Earth they would run a campaign in Batman that could help Labor retain it. Trumble needs Shorten destroyed. So long as Shorten stays on his feet everyone attached to the government know how this is gonna end. The only hope they have is to get Labor back to being their own worst enemy and getting the Greens up in Batman helps that end, so despite any hyperbolic rhetoric to the contrary the Libs won’t be doing anything to help Ged.

  6. GG

    Using white phosphorous is i think banned, therefore any Australian soldier who uses it is committing a crime. Negligence at best if it was for illumination.

    Let no one ever comment on the evil people who use chlorine gas if not at the SAME time commenting on White phosphorous. We cannot rant on and on about people using gas when we are too.

    They are both EVIL

  7. ratsak @ #2656 Thursday, February 8th, 2018 – 7:55 pm

    I was thinking of the Libs deciding to stand a candidate as a result of the Bandt outburst.

    Why? They don’t give a flying fuck what the Greens do or say unless it can be used to damage Labor.

    They know where the real game is.

    Everything they say about the Greens, like Credlin’s hyperbole is simply to damage Labor by association.

    There is no way on God’s Green Earth they would run a campaign in Batman that could help Labor retain it. Trumble needs Shorten destroyed. So long as Shorten stays on his feet everyone attached to the government know how this is gonna end. The only hope they have is to get Labor back to being their own worst enemy and getting the Greens up in Batman helps that end, so despite any hyperbolic rhetoric to the contrary the Libs won’t be doing anything to help Ged.

    Yep! Well said.

  8. daretotread @ #2657 Thursday, February 8th, 2018 – 7:55 pm

    GG

    Using white phosphorous is i think banned, therefore any Australian soldier who uses it is committing a crime. Negligence at best if it was for illumination.

    Let no one ever comment on the evil people who use chlorine gas if not at the SAME time commenting on White phosphorous. We cannot rant on and on about people using gas when we are too.

    They are both EVIL

    You can!

  9. Does anyone here use Outlook
    One of my email addresses has stopped working.
    No idea why
    Any suggestions.

    I cannot up load it at all or add it to my system

  10. ratsak @ #2660 Thursday, February 8th, 2018 – 7:58 pm

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-08/abc-apology-to-kevin-rudd/9410836?smid=abcnews-Twitter_Organic&WT.tsrc=Twitter_Organic&sf181595827=1

    What a shameful, gutless filthy effort that is.

    I’ve not been a Rudd fan for a looooooong time, but I hope he takes the maggots to the fucking cleaners.

    Sackings all the way up the editorial line would only start to make amends.

    Where do they go when they run out of tea ladies to sack?

    My guess is on the ground break story reporters.

  11. Where do they go when they run out of tea ladies to sack?

    My guess is on the ground break story reporters.

    and then give top management a bonus.

  12. GG

    Soldiers serving abroad are there serving Australia

    An alternative view is that he was appointed to do a job by the Government and did it most effectively.

    Just following orders hasn’t cut it for decades. There were and still are serious questions about what was done in Fallujah.

  13. Just caught up with George Brandis’ valedictory speech.

    He observed that “powerful elements of right-wing politics” had abandoned the liberal tradition in favour of “a belligerent, intolerant populism which shows no respect for either the rights of individual citizens or the traditional institutions which protect them”.

    Just one question – if he was so concerned about Right Wing politics, especially “belligerent, intolerant populism”, why did he stay with a party that had been solidly hard right, with such populism was its stock in trade, since at least the mid 90s?

    George Brandis can get stuffed. Labor should sack him from his sinecure when it takes power.

  14. If Saddam Hussein who was tried and hung for using gas on a Kurdish town had used Phosphorous instead, it would have been honky dory?

  15. If Saddam Hussein who was tried and hung for using gas on a Kurdish town had used Phosphorous instead, it would have been honky dory?

    ‘course it would have. Just so long as they had some excuse to hang him.

    … oh I see what you meant.

  16. Bemused
    It seems to have happened on Sunday

    That is the last email I received. I did not notice it because I mostly use the other one.

  17. poroti @ #2592 Thursday, February 8th, 2018 – 6:25 pm

    One for the resident medicos

    “How Fake Surgery Exposes Useless Treatments
    It can reveal whether popular operations are actually effective

    …….. in theNew York Times: “‘Unbelievable’: Heart Stents Fail to Ease Chest Pain.”The headline reflected the results of a British study, published online last November in the Lancet, that used what is probably the best methodology for assessing a surgical procedure: sham surgery. In this case, 200 patients with a blocked artery were randomly assigned to get either a real stent operation or a fake one.

    In the real version, a surgeon snaked a balloon-tipped catheter through an artery in the groin or arm up to the blockage, widened the vessel by inflating the balloon, and then kept it open with a tubelike stent made of wire mesh. In the sham procedure, a catheter was directed to the blockage, but the surgeon only pretended to do the rest.

    The astonishing finding: there was no difference in how the patients felt six weeks after surgery. Both groups reported less pain, and both performed better on treadmill tests……………………… Multiple studies have shown that they do not lower the risk of heart attacks or death. The main justification has been to relieve symptoms such as chest pain,
    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-fake-surgery-exposes-useless-treatments/

    Poroti:
    This is not at all surprising if one understands the mechanism of cardiac chest pain.

    Angina (cardiac chest pain) is one of the symptoms of cardiac ischaemia (lack of blood, and therefore oxygen, supply to cardiac muscle). This is sometimes (but not always) due to obstruction of a coronary artery (CA) by a clot forming on the surface of an abnormal area of coronary endothelium (the surface layer of the blood vessel) overlying a narrowing of the artery, causing the working heart muscle downstream to suffer from ischaemia and resulting in angina by a mechanism that we do not understand well. If the CA remains obstructed under stress downstream heart muscle may die (infarct, a “heart attack”), but until it does, the angina is likely to persist. Fixed obstructions, such as arteriosclerotic narrowing of CA, may cause angina on effort (when the cardiac muscle is under stress, and collateral circulation is inadequate) but does not usually cause angina at rest.

    Thrombolysis (dissolving or removing the clot) often relives the angina, but CA stents (or CA bypass grafts) just dilate the narrowed vessel and do not relieve angina at rest. We do not usually do stents during an acute cardiac infarct – we thrombolyse the obstructed CA, then stent the narrowing.

    In other words, don’t mistake the plumbing for medicine. This result has been known for years.

  18. daretotread @ #2661 Thursday, February 8th, 2018 – 7:58 pm

    Does anyone here use Outlook
    One of my email addresses has stopped working.
    No idea why
    Any suggestions.

    I cannot up load it at all or add it to my system

    Are your multiple email addresses all with Telstra?
    Check all the settings of the one that doesn’t work against those of one that does work and make any necessary changes.
    See if you can send a test email from the email address not working.

  19. Dtt,

    Try to log in to your email account on the web from a browser. If that works then you know it’s Outlook settings giving you problems.

  20. I suppose the question is will Rudd be content with the apology from the ABC.

    Their great scoop of finding the files has almost disappeared.

    Brian Toohey, who knows a bit about leaks and scoops, was scathing of the ABC’s handling of the matter.

    If they had found their way into Toohey’s hands we would be reading stories about what was in the documents for months.

  21. Greensborough Growler

    Unfortunately the damage has been done re the Rudd sliming. The bullshit Liberal meme that Labor caused the workers to die was reinforced.. Don’t think it was an ‘accident’ either.

  22. mikehilliard says:
    Thursday, February 8, 2018 at 7:54 pm
    rossmcg

    That’s pure speculation. As dim witted as we’d like to make out the voters of New England are if an alternative turned up they could well dump Joyce. It would no doubt be another Nat so that would be fun!

    That’s what happened when Tony Windsor stood against Stuart St Clair, who lasted just one term. Windsor was not technically a National, but was seen as such by the electorate, and was also seen as streets ahead of St Clair, who was a timeserver who did nothing, and who was the grossly inferior replacement for Ian Sinclair, who was a consummate politician.

    But it seems you have to be a National, or seen as such, to gain a seat in the Federal seat of New England.

  23. If they had found their way into Toohey’s a competent media organisation that actually did journalism rather than worrying about not upsetting the Liberals hands we would be reading stories about what was in the documents for months.

    FIFY

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